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題名 總體經濟變數對經濟成長影響之研究﹕以香港及新加坡為例
The Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Economic Growth: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore作者 沈鎧翎
Sum, Hoi-Ling貢獻者 洪福聲<br>林朕陞
Hung, Fu-Sheng<br>Lin, Chen-Sheng
沈鎧翎
Sum, Hoi-Ling關鍵詞 經濟成長
總體經濟指標
香港
新加坡
Economics Growth
Macroeconomic Indicators
Hong Kong
Singapore日期 2024 上傳時間 4-Sep-2024 14:01:01 (UTC+8) 摘要 香港及新加坡皆曾為英國殖民地，而兩個經濟體的歷史及經濟發展進程均非常相似，並且，它們的經濟狀況與金融發展亦非常成熟。為了解這兩個經濟體的異同，本文整理了不同的文獻，及收集各總體經濟指標的數據，從而研究影響香港及新加坡經濟發展的因素，並找出這兩個經濟體各自的特色。 在實證模型上，本文分別使用了香港及新加坡（1998至2022年）的數據，先進行單根檢定，確保數據為定態數列，再進行迴歸分析。研究結果顯示，在香港方面，取自然對數的期初人均GDP、實質國際貿易增長率、貨幣供給量增長率、實質外人投資增長率及落後一期的實質人均GDP增長率呈正向影響，而消通貨膨脹率及虛擬變數 （2008年金融海嘯），則對經濟成長呈負向影響。此外，實質政府支出增長率、勞動力增長率及實質固定資本形成增長率則對經濟成長帶來不顯著的影響；而在新加坡方面，實質外人投資增長率、實質固定資本形成增長率、實質國際貿易增長率及落後一期的實質人均GDP增長率對經濟成長呈正向影響，而虛擬變數 （2008年金融海嘯）則對經濟成長呈負向影響。此外，實質政府支出增長率、勞動力增長率、取自然對數的期初人均GDP、貨幣供給量增長率及通貨膨脹率的變動則對經濟成長並未帶來顯著的影響。由此可見，兩個經濟體的經濟發展因素並不相同，各有其獨特性。
Both Hong Kong and Singapore are British colonies, the history and the economic development progress of both economies are similar, and their economic and financial conditions are developed maturely. In order to know the similarities and differences of two economies, this thesis consolidated the result of different research articles, and collected the data of different economic indicators so as to explore the effect of different macroeconomic indicators on economic growth, as well as their characteristics. For the empirical model, the data of Hong Kong and Singapore (1998-2022) are collected respectively. Before conducting the regression analysis, the unit root test is carried out in order to ensure that the data are in stationary status, and the real GDP growth rate is chosen to be the dependent variable of the model. For the model of Hong Kong, the result shows that the logged initial per capita GDP, real international trade growth rate, money supply growth rate, real foreign investment growth rate and per capital real GDP growth rate (last period) are positively related to economic development, but inflation rate and dummy variable (2008 Financial Crisis) have negative effect on the economic growth. Besides, government expenditure growth rate, labour force growth rate and fixed capital formation growth rate does not have any significant effect on the economic growth. For the model of Singapore, the real foreign investment growth rate, real fixed capital formation growth rate, real international trade growth rate and per capita real GDP growth rate (last period) have positive effect on the economic growth of the economy, but dummy variable (2008 Financial Crisis) brings negative effect on economic growth. Besides, real government expenditure growth rate, labour force growth rate, logged initial per capita GDP, money supply growth rate and the change of inflation rate do not have any significant effect on the economic growth. Therefore, it is concluded that economic development factors of two economies are different, and they have their own characteristics.參考文獻 王賡武(2017)，〈現代貿易體系的成長歷程〉，《香港史新編》（上冊），354-361。 馮邦彥 (2017)，〈金融業崛起及早期發展〉，《香港金融史 1841-2017》，1-30。 楊子瑩(2003)，〈臺灣金融深化、貿易依存度、政府規模與內生成長之實證分析〉，國立臺北大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。 慕雲(2005)，〈香港經濟轉型的成功要素〉，《香港經濟導報》。 Aghion, P. and Howitt, P. (1992), “A model of growth through creative destruction,” Econometrica, 60, pp. 323-351. Aghion, P. and Howitt, P. (1998), “Endogenous growth theory,” Cambridge, pp. 310-312. Ahasan, U. H., Golam, K., Muhaiminul, I. S. and Dilruba, Y. S. (2019), “Labor force participation rate and economic growth: Observations for Bangladesh,” International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, 5:9, pp. 209-213. Akalpler, E. and Adil, H. (2017), “The impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Singapore between 1980 and 2014,” Eurasian Economic Review, 7, pp. 435-450. Almassri, H., Ozdeser, H. and Saliminezhad, A. (2023), “Revisiting the finance-growth nexus in Hong Kong: fresh insights from nonparametric analysis,” Journal of Economic Studies, 50:5, pp. 1073-1086. Anwar, S. (2008), “Foreign investment, human capital and manufacturing sector growth in Singapore,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 30:3, pp. 447-453. Barro, R. J. (1991), “Economic growth in a cross section of countries,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106:2, pp. 407-443. Barro, R. J. (1995), “Inflation and economic growth,” NBER Working Papers 5326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Barro, R. J. and Sala-i-Martin, X. (1997), “Technological diffusion, convergence, and growth,” Journal of Economic Growth, 2, pp. 1-27. Barro, R. J. (1996), “Determinants of economic growth: A cross-country empirical study,” NBER Working Papers 5698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Behera, J. (2016), “Dynamics of inflation, economic growth, money supply and exchange rate in India: Evidence from multivariate analysis,” Quarterly Journal of Econometrics Research, 2:2, pp. 42-54. Boldeanu, F. T. and Tache, I. (2015), “Sub-division expenditures and economic growth in Europe based on United Nation's classification of the functions of government,” International Journal of Economic Practices & Theories, 5:5, pp. 35-42. Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J. and Lee, J. W. (1998), “How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth,” Journal of International Economics, 45:1, pp.115-135. Carroll, J. M. (2007), A concise history of Hong Kong, Rowman & Littlefield. Chen, B. L., Hsu, M. and Lai, C. F. (2016), “Relation between growth and unemployment in a model with labor-force participation and adverse labor institutions,” Journal of Macroeconomics, 50, pp. 273-292. Chou, W. L. and Wong, K. Y. (2001), “Economic growth and international trade: the case of Hong Kong,” Pacific Economic Review, 6:3, pp. 313-329. Erum, N, and Hussain, S. (2019), “Corruption, natural resources and economic growth: Evidence from OIC countries,” Resources Policy, 63, pp. 101-429. Feridun, M. and Sissoko, Y. (2011), “Impact of FDI on economic development: A causality analysis for Singapore, 1976-2002,” International Journal of Economic Sciences & Applied Research, 4:1, pp.7-17. Fischer, S. (1993), “The role of macroeconomic factors in growth,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 32:3, pp. 485-512. Genberg, H. (2005), “External shocks, transmission mechanisms and deflation in Asia,” HKIMR working paper, 6:5, pp. 4-10. Ghosh, A. and Phillips, S. (1998), “Inflation may be harmful to your growth,” IMF Staff Papers, 45:4, pp. 672-710. Ghosh, S. and Gregoriou, A. (2008), “The composition of government spending and growth: is current or capital spending better,” Oxford Economic Papers, 60:3, pp. 484-516. Haque, A. U., Kibria, G., Selim, M. I. and Smrity, D. Y. (2019), “Labor force participation rate and economic growth: Observations for Bangladesh,” International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, 5:9, pp.209-213. Hassan, M. K., Sanchez, B. and Yu, J. S. (2011), “Financial development and economic growth: New evidence from panel data,” The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 51:1, pp. 88-104. Ho, S. Y. (2018), “Determinants of economic growth in Hong Kong: The role of stock market development,” Cogent Economics & Finance, 6:1, pp. 151-171. Hsiao, C., Ching, H. S. and Wan, S. K. (2012), “A panel data approach for program evaluation: measuring the benefits of political and economic integration of Hong Kong with mainland China,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 27:5, pp.705-740. Hsueh, T. T. (1976), “The transforming economy of Hong Kong 1951-1973,” Hong Kong Economic Papers, 10, pp. 46-65. Imleesh, R. M., Yanto, H. and Prajanti, S. D. W. (2017), “The impact of macroeconomic indicators on economic growth in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore,” Journal of Economic Education, 6:1, pp.19-28. Javed, B., Abdullah, I., Zaffar, M., Haque, A. U. and Rubab U. (2019), “Inclusive leadership and innovative work behavior: the role of psychological empowerment,” Journal of Management & Organization, 25:4, pp. 554-571. Jha, S., Mallick, S. K., Park, D. and Quising, P. F. (2010), “Effectiveness of countercyclical fiscal policy: Time-series evidence from developing Asia,” ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 211 Keynes, J. M. (1936), General theory of employment, interest and money. Macmillan. Lam, K. C. and Liu, P. W. (1998), “Immigration and the economy of Hong Kong,” Contemporary Economic Policy, 16:3, pp. 265-276. Li, X. and Liu, X. (2005), “Foreign direct investment and economic growth: an increasingly endogenous relationship,” World Development, 33:3, pp. 393-407. Lucas, R. E. J. (1988), “On the mechanics of economic development.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 22:1, pp. 3-42. Ministry of Trade and Industry Singapore (2024), “Singapore Economy 2030: Grow our Economy,” Budget 2024, pp. 3-15. Moreno, R. (1988), “Exchange rates and monetary policy in Singapore and Hong Kong,” In Monetary Policy in Pacific Basin Countries: Papers Presented at a Conference Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pp. 173-200. Mosenogi, J. M. (2016), “An impact analysis of construction sector on economic growth and household income in South Africa,” Journal of Management & Administration, 2016:1, pp.128-137. Mourad, M. and Trabulsi, H. (2019), “Economic growth analysis of a Singapore: Simultaneous equations model,” Journal of Business and Financial Affairs, pp. 1-9. Nelson, C. R. and Plosser, C. I. (1982), “Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: Some evidence and implications,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 10:2, pp.139-162. Ong, C. T. (2013), “An exchange-rate-centred monetary policy system: Singapore's experience,” BIS Paper, 73, pp. 307-315. Pham, T. (2009), Government expenditure and economic growth: Evidence from Singapore, Hong Kong, China and Malaysia. Rotterdam Erasmus University. Phillips, P. C. B. and Perron, P. (1988), “Testing for a unit root in time series regression,” Biometrika, 75:2, pp. 335-346. Rajan, R. S. and Siregar, R. (2002), “Choice of exchange rate regime: currency board (Hong Kong) or monitoring band (Singapore),” Australian Economic Papers, 41:4, pp. 538-556. Ridzuan, A. R., Ismail, N. A. and Hamat, A. F. C. (2017), “Does foreign direct investment successfully lead to sustainable development in Singapore,” Economies, 5:3, pp. 1-20. Romer, P. M. (1986), “Increasing returns and long-run growth,” Journal of Political Economy, 94, pp. 1002-1037. Romer, P. M. (1990), “Endogenous technological change,” Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), pp. 71-102. Sarel, M. (1996), “Nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth, “Staff Papers, 43:1, pp. 199-215. Smith, A. (1776), An inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations. New York Modern Library. Solow, R. M. (1956), “A contribution to the theory of economic growth,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70:1, pp.65-94. Solow, R. M. (1957). “Technical change and the aggregate production function,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 39:3, pp. 312-320. Song, C. Q., Chang, C. P. and Gong, Q. (2021), “Economic growth, corruption, and financial development: Global evidence,” Economic Modelling, 94, pp. 822-830. Srithilat, K., Sun, G. and Thavisay, M. (2017), “The impact of monetary policy on economic development: Evidence from Lao PDR,” Global Journal of Human-Social Science, 17:2, pp. 9-16. Tan, C. J. K. (2012), International Trade and economic growth: Evidence from Singapore. University of Columbia. Tsoi, H. Y. (2015), “Should Hong Kong maintain a linked exchange rate system,” Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics, 5(1), pp. 4-10. Wibowo, S. and Wijaya, A. (2021), “The effect of government expenditure, economic growth, and population on employment and poverty in East Kalimantan Province (Indonesia),” Technium Social Science Journal, 20, pp. 510-515. Yanikkaya, H. (2003), “Trade openness and economic growth: A cross country empirical investigation,” Journal of Development Economics, 72, pp. 57-89. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際金融碩士學位學程
111ZB1058資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111ZB1058 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 洪福聲<br>林朕陞 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Hung, Fu-Sheng<br>Lin, Chen-Sheng en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 沈鎧翎 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Sum, Hoi-Ling en_US dc.creator (作者) 沈鎧翎 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Sum, Hoi-Ling en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-Sep-2024 14:01:01 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-Sep-2024 14:01:01 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Sep-2024 14:01:01 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0111ZB1058 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/153139 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國際金融碩士學位學程 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 111ZB1058 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 香港及新加坡皆曾為英國殖民地，而兩個經濟體的歷史及經濟發展進程均非常相似，並且，它們的經濟狀況與金融發展亦非常成熟。為了解這兩個經濟體的異同，本文整理了不同的文獻，及收集各總體經濟指標的數據，從而研究影響香港及新加坡經濟發展的因素，並找出這兩個經濟體各自的特色。 在實證模型上，本文分別使用了香港及新加坡（1998至2022年）的數據，先進行單根檢定，確保數據為定態數列，再進行迴歸分析。研究結果顯示，在香港方面，取自然對數的期初人均GDP、實質國際貿易增長率、貨幣供給量增長率、實質外人投資增長率及落後一期的實質人均GDP增長率呈正向影響，而消通貨膨脹率及虛擬變數 （2008年金融海嘯），則對經濟成長呈負向影響。此外，實質政府支出增長率、勞動力增長率及實質固定資本形成增長率則對經濟成長帶來不顯著的影響；而在新加坡方面，實質外人投資增長率、實質固定資本形成增長率、實質國際貿易增長率及落後一期的實質人均GDP增長率對經濟成長呈正向影響，而虛擬變數 （2008年金融海嘯）則對經濟成長呈負向影響。此外，實質政府支出增長率、勞動力增長率、取自然對數的期初人均GDP、貨幣供給量增長率及通貨膨脹率的變動則對經濟成長並未帶來顯著的影響。由此可見，兩個經濟體的經濟發展因素並不相同，各有其獨特性。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Both Hong Kong and Singapore are British colonies, the history and the economic development progress of both economies are similar, and their economic and financial conditions are developed maturely. In order to know the similarities and differences of two economies, this thesis consolidated the result of different research articles, and collected the data of different economic indicators so as to explore the effect of different macroeconomic indicators on economic growth, as well as their characteristics. For the empirical model, the data of Hong Kong and Singapore (1998-2022) are collected respectively. Before conducting the regression analysis, the unit root test is carried out in order to ensure that the data are in stationary status, and the real GDP growth rate is chosen to be the dependent variable of the model. For the model of Hong Kong, the result shows that the logged initial per capita GDP, real international trade growth rate, money supply growth rate, real foreign investment growth rate and per capital real GDP growth rate (last period) are positively related to economic development, but inflation rate and dummy variable (2008 Financial Crisis) have negative effect on the economic growth. Besides, government expenditure growth rate, labour force growth rate and fixed capital formation growth rate does not have any significant effect on the economic growth. For the model of Singapore, the real foreign investment growth rate, real fixed capital formation growth rate, real international trade growth rate and per capita real GDP growth rate (last period) have positive effect on the economic growth of the economy, but dummy variable (2008 Financial Crisis) brings negative effect on economic growth. Besides, real government expenditure growth rate, labour force growth rate, logged initial per capita GDP, money supply growth rate and the change of inflation rate do not have any significant effect on the economic growth. Therefore, it is concluded that economic development factors of two economies are different, and they have their own characteristics. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第二章 理論及文獻探討 3 第三章 香港及新加坡的經濟發展簡介 9 第一節 香港的經濟發展介紹 9 第二節 新加坡的經濟發展介紹 12 第三節 香港及新加坡的比較 15 第四章 實證模型與資料來源 19 第一節 實證模型 19 第二節 資料來源 22 第五章 實證過程與結果 24 第一節 單根檢定結果 24 第二節 多元迴歸分析結果 26 第三節 模型結果與分析 29 第六章 結論 34 參考文獻 36 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1358567 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111ZB1058 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 經濟成長 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 總體經濟指標 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 香港 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 新加坡 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Economics Growth en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Macroeconomic Indicators en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Hong Kong en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Singapore en_US dc.title (題名) 總體經濟變數對經濟成長影響之研究﹕以香港及新加坡為例 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Economic Growth: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 王賡武(2017)，〈現代貿易體系的成長歷程〉，《香港史新編》（上冊），354-361。 馮邦彥 (2017)，〈金融業崛起及早期發展〉，《香港金融史 1841-2017》，1-30。 楊子瑩(2003)，〈臺灣金融深化、貿易依存度、政府規模與內生成長之實證分析〉，國立臺北大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。 慕雲(2005)，〈香港經濟轉型的成功要素〉，《香港經濟導報》。 Aghion, P. and Howitt, P. (1992), “A model of growth through creative destruction,” Econometrica, 60, pp. 323-351. Aghion, P. and Howitt, P. (1998), “Endogenous growth theory,” Cambridge, pp. 310-312. Ahasan, U. H., Golam, K., Muhaiminul, I. S. and Dilruba, Y. S. (2019), “Labor force participation rate and economic growth: Observations for Bangladesh,” International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, 5:9, pp. 209-213. Akalpler, E. and Adil, H. (2017), “The impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Singapore between 1980 and 2014,” Eurasian Economic Review, 7, pp. 435-450. Almassri, H., Ozdeser, H. and Saliminezhad, A. (2023), “Revisiting the finance-growth nexus in Hong Kong: fresh insights from nonparametric analysis,” Journal of Economic Studies, 50:5, pp. 1073-1086. Anwar, S. (2008), “Foreign investment, human capital and manufacturing sector growth in Singapore,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 30:3, pp. 447-453. Barro, R. J. (1991), “Economic growth in a cross section of countries,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106:2, pp. 407-443. Barro, R. J. (1995), “Inflation and economic growth,” NBER Working Papers 5326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Barro, R. J. and Sala-i-Martin, X. (1997), “Technological diffusion, convergence, and growth,” Journal of Economic Growth, 2, pp. 1-27. Barro, R. J. (1996), “Determinants of economic growth: A cross-country empirical study,” NBER Working Papers 5698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Behera, J. (2016), “Dynamics of inflation, economic growth, money supply and exchange rate in India: Evidence from multivariate analysis,” Quarterly Journal of Econometrics Research, 2:2, pp. 42-54. Boldeanu, F. T. and Tache, I. (2015), “Sub-division expenditures and economic growth in Europe based on United Nation's classification of the functions of government,” International Journal of Economic Practices & Theories, 5:5, pp. 35-42. Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J. and Lee, J. W. (1998), “How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth,” Journal of International Economics, 45:1, pp.115-135. Carroll, J. M. (2007), A concise history of Hong Kong, Rowman & Littlefield. Chen, B. L., Hsu, M. and Lai, C. F. (2016), “Relation between growth and unemployment in a model with labor-force participation and adverse labor institutions,” Journal of Macroeconomics, 50, pp. 273-292. Chou, W. L. and Wong, K. Y. (2001), “Economic growth and international trade: the case of Hong Kong,” Pacific Economic Review, 6:3, pp. 313-329. Erum, N, and Hussain, S. (2019), “Corruption, natural resources and economic growth: Evidence from OIC countries,” Resources Policy, 63, pp. 101-429. Feridun, M. and Sissoko, Y. (2011), “Impact of FDI on economic development: A causality analysis for Singapore, 1976-2002,” International Journal of Economic Sciences & Applied Research, 4:1, pp.7-17. Fischer, S. 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