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題名 再探湄公河流域水資源治理：中國因素與區域國家的回應
Unpacking Water Resource Governance in the Mekong Basin: China Factors and Response from the Region作者 林麗娥
Lin, Li-O貢獻者 楊昊
Yang Hao
林麗娥
Lin, Li-O關鍵詞 威權體制類型
遴選集團
水電
對外直接投資
湄公河
Autocratic Regime Type
Selectorate Theory
Hydropower
Foreign Direct Investment
Mekong River日期 2024 上傳時間 4-Sep-2024 14:21:54 (UTC+8) 摘要 中美兩國在科技、貿易和意識形態等領域的競爭都接近冷戰2.0，而湄公河地區可能成為亞洲權力競爭的戰場。區域權力競爭對系統性權力制衡的影響至關重要。在特定地區發生的行動揭示了當前國際體系中正在發生的權力轉換。美國、日本、韓國和澳洲等在與湄公河國家合作上都有各自的倡議，形成了以層疊型區域主義(nesting regionalism)為特色的治理架構。中國於2016年推出由其主導的瀾滄合作組織(Lancang-Mekong Cooperation, LMC)，來強化其區域領導地位。 美國、日本的湄公河倡議，專注於改善湄公河的環境，利用非傳統安全問題來提高其在該地區的地緣政治影響力。中國崛起後透過外國直接投資，積極參與開發中南半島國家的水電資源，企圖控制東南亞的水電發展。水電開發被視為可持續經濟發展的代名詞，以增強國家權力的穩定與合法性，儘管下游五國均有發展上的需求，面對中國的紅色資金卻存在著不同的發展差異。本文主要以緬甸、寮國和柬埔寨為個案，從威權體制的差異解釋這些國家如何隨著威權型態的不同與中國水電開發的合作結果有所不同。儘管緬甸一度出現民主發展的契機，但仍然主要是軍事威權體制，寮國為定期選舉的政黨獨裁，柬埔寨則是個人獨裁，每個國家領導人的政治生存邏輯不一樣，對於水資源開發則有不同的優先偏好。緬甸水資源豐富的地區都集中在克倫邦、撣邦和克欽邦等武裝民族與軍政府衝突地區，由於中央對水電利益的分配不均，促使地方發動內戰，由於不影響領導存續，緬甸領導人首要的生存策略就是「鎮壓」地方民族軍，也導致許多水電站的開發停止或延遲，影響了水電的發展。寮國、柬埔寨領導人偏好的生存策略是透過水電發展來增加財政自主性，「酬庸」親信來獲取支持，因此傾向與中國合作，計畫在湄公河及境內水域建造一系列水壩。
As both China and the US are moving closer to a Cold War 2.0 in areas such as technology, trade and ideology, the Mekong region could become a next battleground for such a power rivalry. The effects of regional power competition matter to the systemic balance of power. Actions that are occurring in a given region (e.g. the LMC) reveal the current power transformation that is occurring in the international system.The Mekong River initiative of the United States and Japan focuses on improving the environment of the Mekong River and using non-traditional security issues to enhance its geopolitical influence in the region.China actively participated in the development of hydropower with Indochina Peninsula countries through foreign direct investment (FDI). Hydropower is regarded as sustainable economic development, which can enhance the stability and legitimacy of state power. This article takes Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia mostly as case study from the differences in authoritarian regime to explain why the countries have different decision-making outcomes under China's hydropower FDI. Myanmar's democratic transition was interrupted by the 2021 coup, it is still military dictatorships, while Laos is still party-based dictatorships, Cambodia is still personal dictatorships. The political survival logic of the three country leaders are different from each other. Myanmar civil wars were caused due to the uneven distribution of hydropower interests by the central government. Myanmar leaders' first survival strategy is to suppress the local ethnic army that make many hydropower developments delay or stop. The survival strategy of Laos and Combodia leaders is prefer to increase fiscal autonomy through hydropower to seek support from the winning coalition. 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國立政治大學
東亞研究所
100260502資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100260502 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 楊昊 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Yang Hao en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林麗娥 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lin, Li-O en_US dc.creator (作者) 林麗娥 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Lin, Li-O en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-Sep-2024 14:21:54 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-Sep-2024 14:21:54 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Sep-2024 14:21:54 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0100260502 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/153223 - dc.description (描述) 博士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 東亞研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 100260502 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 中美兩國在科技、貿易和意識形態等領域的競爭都接近冷戰2.0，而湄公河地區可能成為亞洲權力競爭的戰場。區域權力競爭對系統性權力制衡的影響至關重要。在特定地區發生的行動揭示了當前國際體系中正在發生的權力轉換。美國、日本、韓國和澳洲等在與湄公河國家合作上都有各自的倡議，形成了以層疊型區域主義(nesting regionalism)為特色的治理架構。中國於2016年推出由其主導的瀾滄合作組織(Lancang-Mekong Cooperation, LMC)，來強化其區域領導地位。 美國、日本的湄公河倡議，專注於改善湄公河的環境，利用非傳統安全問題來提高其在該地區的地緣政治影響力。中國崛起後透過外國直接投資，積極參與開發中南半島國家的水電資源，企圖控制東南亞的水電發展。水電開發被視為可持續經濟發展的代名詞，以增強國家權力的穩定與合法性，儘管下游五國均有發展上的需求，面對中國的紅色資金卻存在著不同的發展差異。本文主要以緬甸、寮國和柬埔寨為個案，從威權體制的差異解釋這些國家如何隨著威權型態的不同與中國水電開發的合作結果有所不同。儘管緬甸一度出現民主發展的契機，但仍然主要是軍事威權體制，寮國為定期選舉的政黨獨裁，柬埔寨則是個人獨裁，每個國家領導人的政治生存邏輯不一樣，對於水資源開發則有不同的優先偏好。緬甸水資源豐富的地區都集中在克倫邦、撣邦和克欽邦等武裝民族與軍政府衝突地區，由於中央對水電利益的分配不均，促使地方發動內戰，由於不影響領導存續，緬甸領導人首要的生存策略就是「鎮壓」地方民族軍，也導致許多水電站的開發停止或延遲，影響了水電的發展。寮國、柬埔寨領導人偏好的生存策略是透過水電發展來增加財政自主性，「酬庸」親信來獲取支持，因此傾向與中國合作，計畫在湄公河及境內水域建造一系列水壩。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) As both China and the US are moving closer to a Cold War 2.0 in areas such as technology, trade and ideology, the Mekong region could become a next battleground for such a power rivalry. The effects of regional power competition matter to the systemic balance of power. Actions that are occurring in a given region (e.g. the LMC) reveal the current power transformation that is occurring in the international system.The Mekong River initiative of the United States and Japan focuses on improving the environment of the Mekong River and using non-traditional security issues to enhance its geopolitical influence in the region.China actively participated in the development of hydropower with Indochina Peninsula countries through foreign direct investment (FDI). Hydropower is regarded as sustainable economic development, which can enhance the stability and legitimacy of state power. This article takes Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia mostly as case study from the differences in authoritarian regime to explain why the countries have different decision-making outcomes under China's hydropower FDI. Myanmar's democratic transition was interrupted by the 2021 coup, it is still military dictatorships, while Laos is still party-based dictatorships, Cambodia is still personal dictatorships. The political survival logic of the three country leaders are different from each other. Myanmar civil wars were caused due to the uneven distribution of hydropower interests by the central government. Myanmar leaders' first survival strategy is to suppress the local ethnic army that make many hydropower developments delay or stop. The survival strategy of Laos and Combodia leaders is prefer to increase fiscal autonomy through hydropower to seek support from the winning coalition. Laos and Combodia tend to cooperate with China and plan to build dams in the Mekong river and other rivers. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景 1 第二節 研究目的 7 第三節 論文架構 11 第二章 相關理論與文獻回顧 13 第一節 國際關係理論與水資源的衝突與合作 15 第二節 國際關係理論中小國的外交策略 20 第三節 威權體制的政治穩定與外國直接投資 24 第四節 小結 29 第三章 湄公河層疊型的區域治理及治理危機 31 第一節 湄公河水電開發 31 第二節 湄公河層疊型的區域治理與治理危機 42 第三節 小結 47 第四章 美中於大湄公河水資源治理上的戰略選擇 49 第一節 利益分享模式 49 第二節 中國參與湄公河區域組織的政治態度比較與分析 52 第三節 中國推進瀾湄合作組織的權力圖像 61 第五章 湄公河下游國家對於中資水電開發的回應 68 第一節 遴選集團與政治領袖的政治忠誠與財政自主性 70 第二節 中南半島國家對中國水壩投資回應上的個案挑選 73 第六章 寮國、緬甸及柬埔寨對中國水電合作的分析 79 第一節 寮國的政權型態與中資水電開發情形 79 第二節 緬甸的政權型態與中資水電開發情形 87 第三節 柬埔寨的政權型態與中資水電開發情形 96 第四節 小結 113 第七章 結論 118 參考文獻 121 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2689294 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100260502 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 威權體制類型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 遴選集團 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 水電 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 對外直接投資 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 湄公河 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Autocratic Regime Type en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Selectorate Theory en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Hydropower en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Foreign Direct Investment en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Mekong River en_US dc.title (題名) 再探湄公河流域水資源治理：中國因素與區域國家的回應 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Unpacking Water Resource Governance in the Mekong Basin: China Factors and Response from the Region en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部分 專書 1. 何大明、馮彥，2006。《國際河流跨境水資源合理利用與協調管理》。北京：科學出版社。 2. 余騰耀主編，2016。《能源、水資源鏈結(FEW Nexus) 發展趨勢與應用潛力》。臺北：財團法人中技社。 3. 宋興州，2021。《大湄公河次區域地緣經濟角力：衝突與調和》。香港：香港城市大學。 專書譯著 1. 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Huang，2019/6/10。〈【認真看東協】列強環繞下，「沒有存在感」的寮國如何夾縫求生？〉，《換日線》，<https://crossing.cw.com.tw/article/11841>。 2. 2021/3/2。〈湄湄公河成中共控制東南亞的「政治籌碼」〉，《大紀元》， <https://www.epochtimes.com/b5/21/3/2/n12783829.htm>。 3. 王維洛，2021/03/11。〈湄公河水資源衝突的根本原因〉，《阿波羅新聞網》，<https://hk.aboluowang.com/2021/0311/1567138.html>。 4. 杜晉軒，2022/11/18。〈【圖表】政治光譜從極權的王室到民主選舉，你知道東南亞各國的政治體制是什麼？〉，《關鍵評論》，<https://www.thenewslens.com/feature/myelections2022/176708>。 5. 富察，2021/2/1。〈理解緬甸的關鍵字是「民族」和「地方軍閥」，而不是翁山蘇姬和脆弱的民主〉，《獨立評論》，<https://opinion.cw.com.tw/blog/profile/441/article/10469>。 6. 雙曉，2019/4/3。〈緬甸密松大壩案重啟有望：為何翁山蘇姬從與西方友好轉為靠攏中國？〉，《關鍵評論網》，<https://asean.thenewslens.com/article/116360>。 7. 陳伯彰，2023/02/22。〈緬中電力系統互聯計畫即將實施〉，《經濟部國際貿易署》，https://www.trade.gov.tw/Pages/Detail.aspx?nodeID=45&pid=757659 8. 陳伯彰，2024/05/09。〈新加坡占緬甸外人直接投資的29%〉，《經濟部國際貿易署》，https://www.trade.gov.tw/Pages/Detail.aspx?nodeID=45&pid=783479。 9. 2024/08/13。〈柬埔寨7月吸引固定資產投資3.96億美元〉， <https://www.moneydj.com/kmdj/news/newsviewer.aspx?a=2cb4c1db-d8ab-48f5-8bae-d9d5b03498a9 >。 10. 林蘭，2011/11/08。〈中國協議資助緬甸軍政府發展項目〉，《法國國際廣播電台》， < https://www.rfi.fr/tw/%E4%BA%9E%E6%B4%B2/20210811-%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E5%8D%94%E8%AD%B0%E8%B3%87%E5%8A%A9%E7%B7%AC%E7%94%B8%E8%BB%8D%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E7%99%BC%E5%B1%95%E9%A0%85%E7%9B%AE>。 雜誌 1. 林亦非，2014。〈大壩下的陰影 湄公河水壩開發爭議〉，《經典雜誌》，第195期，頁5-38。 英文部分 專書 1. 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