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題名 新冠肺炎疫情期間國際房價之探討
A Study of International Housing Prices during the COVID-19 Era作者 鐘柏堯
Chung, Po-Yao貢獻者 朱芳妮
Chu, Fang-Ni
鐘柏堯
Chung, Po-Yao關鍵詞 房價
新冠肺炎疫情
國際房市
調控政策
追蹤資料自我迴歸分配遞延模型
Housing Prices
COVID-19 Pandemic
International Housing Markets
Regulatory Policy
Panel ARDL日期 2024 上傳時間 4-Sep-2024 14:27:42 (UTC+8) 摘要 在2019年新冠肺炎疫情(COVID-19) 爆發後，對社會經濟帶來嚴重衝擊，各國房市也在同時受到前所未有的震盪。雖然疫情導致各國經濟進入蕭條，但房地產市場卻在全球性的COVID-19疫情中，於多種基本面、非基本面因素以及各國因應疫情所實施的紓困和振興經濟措施下，逆勢進入榮景。由於全球性大流行的疫情在近代史上少有發生，因此研究COVID-19疫情期間國際房價之變化對政府與投資人均具有啟示性。目前學術上對於疫情期間跨國房市的研究依然不充分，且並未跨國分析非基本面因素與房市調控政策的影響。因此，本研究使用Panel ARDL 模型分析COVID-19期間的建築成本、總體經濟、貨幣政策與疫情嚴重程度對於台灣、南韓、新加坡、美國、紐西蘭、英國與愛爾蘭房市的影響，並從房市非基本面因素，探討疫情媒體恐慌情緒與經濟政策不確定性如何影響房地產市場。最後分析同時期各國緊縮性房市調控政策的效應。 本研究將疫情期間影響房價的因素分為市場基本面因素以及基於人性之非基本面因素。在基本面因素方面，COVID-19期間的大盤股價指數與政策利率對各國房價有顯著影響，顯示疫情時期總體經濟與貨幣政策在各國房市發展中的重要性。而新增確診數與營造工程物價指數的影響則不顯著。關於非基本面因素，疫情媒體恐慌指數對房價有顯著負向影響，顯示出對於突發事件的恐慌心態會暫時性減少購屋需求。經濟政策不確定性指數對房價產生正向影響，因不確定性使房市供給減少，而避險需求增加。 COVID-19期間各國針對過熱房市所制定的調控政策難以改變房市參與者之預期，使其並無顯著抑制房價之效應。然而，這樣的結果並不意味著這些政策完全無效。這些政策的主要目標是穩定房市並維持金融系統的穩定，不應僅關注政策是否導致房價顯著下跌。實證結果顯示，房市調控政策的宣布在短期對房價則有顯著正向影響。COVID-19期間的寬鬆貨幣政策與恐慌性購屋情緒，使得政策宣布後在短期內助長了購屋需求；再加上同時期針對剛性的自住需求的協助性措施，都可能使政策無法達到預期的影響。因此，若未來有相似的狀況發生，政策制定者可以考慮採取非典型的房市調控政策作法。
After the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2019, the pandemic plunged economies into a recession, but the real estate market surprisingly entered a boom during the global COVID-19 pandemic due to various fundamental, non-fundamental factors and economic stimulus measures. Since such a global pandemic are rare in modern history, the changes in international housing prices during the COVID-19 pandemic are highly instructive for governments and investors. This study uses the Panel ARDL model to analyze the impact of construction costs, macroeconomic factors, and monetary policy on the real estate markets in Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, the United States, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and Ireland during the COVID-19 era. It also explores how media panic and economic policy uncertainty affect the real estate market from the perspective of non-fundamental factors. Finally, the study examines the impact of housing market regulatory policies. Among the fundamental factors, the stock price indexes and policy interest rates during the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on housing prices in various countries, highlighting the importance of the macroeconomy and monetary policies in the development of housing markets during the pandemic. However, the number of new confirmed cases and the construction cost index did not have a significant impact. In terms of non-fundamental factors, the coronavirus media panic index had a significant negative impact on housing prices, indicating that panic attitudes towards extreme events temporarily reduced housing demand. Economic policy uncertainty had a positive impact on housing prices, as uncertainty led to a decrease in market supply and an increase in demand for safe-haven assets during the COVID-19 era. Housing market regulatory policies during the COVID-19 period struggled to alter market participants' expectations and didn’t significantly suppress housing prices. However, this does not imply that the policies were entirely ineffective. The primary objective of these policies is to stabilize the housing market and maintain financial stability, and not solely be on whether housing prices significantly decrease. The empirical results show that the announcement of housing market regulation policies had a significant positive impact in the short term. Loose monetary policies and FOMO home-buying sentiment during COVID-19 likely boosted demand shortly after the policy announcements. Additionally, supportive measures for essential housing demand during this time may have prevented the policies from achieving their intended effects. Therefore, if similar situations occur in the future, policymakers might consider using unconventional tools for housing market regulation.參考文獻 朱芳妮、楊茜文、黃御維、陳明吉. (2020). 媒體傳播效應與房市變化關聯性之驗證 . 管理學報 , 37(3), 225-257. 朱芳妮、楊茜文、蘇子涵、陳明吉. (2020). 情緒會影響房市嗎?指數編制與驗證 . 住宅學報 , 29(2), 35-68. 林左裕、徐士勛. 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國立政治大學
地政學系
111257013資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111257013 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 朱芳妮 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Chu, Fang-Ni en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 鐘柏堯 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chung, Po-Yao en_US dc.creator (作者) 鐘柏堯 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Chung, Po-Yao en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-Sep-2024 14:27:42 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-Sep-2024 14:27:42 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Sep-2024 14:27:42 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0111257013 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/153250 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 地政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 111257013 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 在2019年新冠肺炎疫情(COVID-19) 爆發後，對社會經濟帶來嚴重衝擊，各國房市也在同時受到前所未有的震盪。雖然疫情導致各國經濟進入蕭條，但房地產市場卻在全球性的COVID-19疫情中，於多種基本面、非基本面因素以及各國因應疫情所實施的紓困和振興經濟措施下，逆勢進入榮景。由於全球性大流行的疫情在近代史上少有發生，因此研究COVID-19疫情期間國際房價之變化對政府與投資人均具有啟示性。目前學術上對於疫情期間跨國房市的研究依然不充分，且並未跨國分析非基本面因素與房市調控政策的影響。因此，本研究使用Panel ARDL 模型分析COVID-19期間的建築成本、總體經濟、貨幣政策與疫情嚴重程度對於台灣、南韓、新加坡、美國、紐西蘭、英國與愛爾蘭房市的影響，並從房市非基本面因素，探討疫情媒體恐慌情緒與經濟政策不確定性如何影響房地產市場。最後分析同時期各國緊縮性房市調控政策的效應。 本研究將疫情期間影響房價的因素分為市場基本面因素以及基於人性之非基本面因素。在基本面因素方面，COVID-19期間的大盤股價指數與政策利率對各國房價有顯著影響，顯示疫情時期總體經濟與貨幣政策在各國房市發展中的重要性。而新增確診數與營造工程物價指數的影響則不顯著。關於非基本面因素，疫情媒體恐慌指數對房價有顯著負向影響，顯示出對於突發事件的恐慌心態會暫時性減少購屋需求。經濟政策不確定性指數對房價產生正向影響，因不確定性使房市供給減少，而避險需求增加。 COVID-19期間各國針對過熱房市所制定的調控政策難以改變房市參與者之預期，使其並無顯著抑制房價之效應。然而，這樣的結果並不意味著這些政策完全無效。這些政策的主要目標是穩定房市並維持金融系統的穩定，不應僅關注政策是否導致房價顯著下跌。實證結果顯示，房市調控政策的宣布在短期對房價則有顯著正向影響。COVID-19期間的寬鬆貨幣政策與恐慌性購屋情緒，使得政策宣布後在短期內助長了購屋需求；再加上同時期針對剛性的自住需求的協助性措施，都可能使政策無法達到預期的影響。因此，若未來有相似的狀況發生，政策制定者可以考慮採取非典型的房市調控政策作法。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) After the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2019, the pandemic plunged economies into a recession, but the real estate market surprisingly entered a boom during the global COVID-19 pandemic due to various fundamental, non-fundamental factors and economic stimulus measures. Since such a global pandemic are rare in modern history, the changes in international housing prices during the COVID-19 pandemic are highly instructive for governments and investors. This study uses the Panel ARDL model to analyze the impact of construction costs, macroeconomic factors, and monetary policy on the real estate markets in Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, the United States, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and Ireland during the COVID-19 era. It also explores how media panic and economic policy uncertainty affect the real estate market from the perspective of non-fundamental factors. Finally, the study examines the impact of housing market regulatory policies. Among the fundamental factors, the stock price indexes and policy interest rates during the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on housing prices in various countries, highlighting the importance of the macroeconomy and monetary policies in the development of housing markets during the pandemic. However, the number of new confirmed cases and the construction cost index did not have a significant impact. In terms of non-fundamental factors, the coronavirus media panic index had a significant negative impact on housing prices, indicating that panic attitudes towards extreme events temporarily reduced housing demand. Economic policy uncertainty had a positive impact on housing prices, as uncertainty led to a decrease in market supply and an increase in demand for safe-haven assets during the COVID-19 era. Housing market regulatory policies during the COVID-19 period struggled to alter market participants' expectations and didn’t significantly suppress housing prices. However, this does not imply that the policies were entirely ineffective. The primary objective of these policies is to stabilize the housing market and maintain financial stability, and not solely be on whether housing prices significantly decrease. The empirical results show that the announcement of housing market regulation policies had a significant positive impact in the short term. Loose monetary policies and FOMO home-buying sentiment during COVID-19 likely boosted demand shortly after the policy announcements. Additionally, supportive measures for essential housing demand during this time may have prevented the policies from achieving their intended effects. Therefore, if similar situations occur in the future, policymakers might consider using unconventional tools for housing market regulation. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景、動機與目的 1 第二節 研究流程 4 第二章 文獻回顧 5 第一節 COVID-19 衝擊之下一般性房市狀況 5 第二節 COVID-19 疫情期間影響房價之因素 14 第三節 疫情期間各國政府房市管控政策 20 第四節 COVID-19期間國際房價研究 26 第三章 研究設計 29 第一節 研究範圍 29 第二節 研究假說 39 第三節 實證分析方法 41 第四節 變數定義與說明 44 第四章 實證研究 52 第一節 樣本資料分析 52 第二節 COVID-19 疫情期間影響房價之因素 56 第三節 COVID-19疫情期間房市調控政策之效應 61 第五章 結論與建議 77 第一節 研究結論與建議 77 第二節 研究限制與後續研究建議 80 參考文獻 81 附錄 90 附錄1：Panel 資料形式之時間序列分析補充 90 附錄2：疫情期間房價影響因素長期影響估計 95 附錄3：疫情期間房價影響因素各國短期影響估計 96 附錄4：疫情期間房市調控政策長期影響估計 103 zh_TW dc.format.extent 6313839 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111257013 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房價 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 新冠肺炎疫情 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 國際房市 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 調控政策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 追蹤資料自我迴歸分配遞延模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Housing Prices en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) COVID-19 Pandemic en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) International Housing Markets en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Regulatory Policy en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Panel ARDL en_US dc.title (題名) 新冠肺炎疫情期間國際房價之探討 zh_TW dc.title (題名) A Study of International Housing Prices during the COVID-19 Era en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 朱芳妮、楊茜文、黃御維、陳明吉. 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