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題名 偏離理性的住宅交易？台北市住宅市場處分效果與房地合一稅
Deviations from Rationality in Housing Transactions? Disposition Effect in Taipei's Residential Market and the House and Land Transactions Income Tax
作者 李佳怡
Li, Chia-Yi
貢獻者 林子欽
Lin, Tzu-Chin
李佳怡
Li, Chia-Yi
關鍵詞 處分效果
房地合一稅
重複交易資料
行為經濟學
住宅市場
Disposition effect
House and Land Transactions Income Tax
Repeat-sales data
Behavioral economics
Residential market
日期 2024
上傳時間 4-Sep-2024 14:28:19 (UTC+8)
摘要 許多報章媒體將賺取價差的短期投機客視為房價上漲的推手，但鮮少有針對短期交易者行為與心理的研究。過往若干研究認為台北市住宅市場的投資人受到處分效果影響，在面對獲利的交易時會想盡快出售；在有損失的交易時卻繼續持有。於此同時，2016年實施的房地合一稅制以差別稅率的方式重課短期交易，可能減弱處分效果的影響，卻尚無實證研究驗證。因此，本研究填補過往研究缺口，將住宅區位特徵及移轉稅制改變納入迴歸模型後，發現台北市住宅市場的處分效果已不存在。此外，在房地合一稅實施前，短期投機者確實受到處分效果影響，但在政策實施後，投機客變得更為理性。房地合一稅的實施，雖無法完全消除短期交易，但卻大幅減少處分效果的影響，並使得投資人更為理性地面對市場交易的賺與賠。
While media often attribute housing price soaring to short-term speculators, research on their behavior and psychology is limited. Some previous studies suggest that investors in Taipei's residential market are influenced by the disposition effect, prompting quick sales of profitable properties while retaining losing investments. The House and Land Transactions Income Tax, implemented in 2016, imposes a higher tax rate on short-term transactions through a differential rate system, potentially weakening the influence of the disposition effect, yet no empirical research has verified this. This study addresses this research gap by incorporating residential location characteristics and tax system changes into regression models. Results indicate the disposition effect has dissipated in Taipei City's residential market. Pre-tax implementation, short-term speculators exhibited the disposition effect; post-implementation, they demonstrated increased rationality. While not eliminating short-term transactions entirely, the tax significantly reduces the disposition effect's impact, fostering more rational investment decisions regarding market gains and losses.
參考文獻 1. 中文參考文獻 林左裕、傅聖元,2015,「住宅市場處置效應之研究」,『都市與計劃』,42(3),doi: 10.6128/CP.42.3.273。 屠美亞、黃耀輝,2014,「不動產特銷稅有效性之實證研究:對短期交易與所得的衝擊」,『住宅學報』,23(2):1-20。 張懿,2016,「臺北市房屋短期重複交易對周圍房價影響之研究」,國立台灣大學社會科學院公共事務研究所碩士論文:台北。 2. 外文參考文獻 Amarnani, N., 2010, "Disposition Effect: A Review of Literature", Microeconomics: General Equilibrium & Disequilibrium Models of Financial Markets eJournal. Retrieved September 1, 2023, from https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:155081601 Barber, B. M., Lee, Y. T., Liu, Y. J. and Odean, T., 2007, "Is the Aggregate Investor Reluctant to Realise Losses? Evidence from Taiwan", European Financial Management, 13(3): 423-447. Barber, B. M., Lee, Y. T., Liu, Y. J. and Odean, T., 2009, "Just How Much Do Individual Investors Lose by Trading?", Review of Financial Studies, 22(2): 609-632. Barberis, N. and Xiong, W., 2009, "What drives the disposition effect? An analysis of a long‐standing preference‐based explanation", The Journal of Finance, 64(2): 751-784. Ben-David, I. and Hirshleifer, D., 2012, "Are Investors Really Reluctant to Realize Their Losses? Trading Responses to Past Returns and the Disposition Effect", Review of Financial Studies, 25(8): 2485-2532. Brown, P., Chappel, N., Da Silva Rosa, R. and Walter, T., 2006, "The Reach of the Disposition Effect: Large Sample Evidence Across Investor Classes", International Review of Finance, 6(1-2): 43-78. Buchinsky, M., 1998, "Recent Advances in Quantile Regression Models: A Practical Guideline for Empirical Research", The Journal of Human Resources, 33(1): 88-126. Buisson, F., 2016, "Prospect Theory and Loss Aversion in the Housing Market", Journal of Real Estate Research, 38(2): 229-250. Chang, C. C., Chao, C. H. and Yeh, J. H., 2014, "Comprehensive Disposition Effect in Real Estate Market", Paper presented at the 30th Australasian Finance and Banking Conference, Sydney. Chang, T. Y., Solomon, D. H. and Westerfield, M. M., 2016, "Looking for Someone to Blame: Delegation, Cognitive Dissonance, and the Disposition Effect", The Journal of Finance, 71(1): 267-302. Chen, G., Kim, K. A., Nofsinger, J. R. and Rui, O. M., 2007, "Trading performance, disposition effect, overconfidence, representativeness bias, and experience of emerging market investors", Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 20(4): 425-451. Dhar, R. and Zhu, N., 2006, "Up Close and Personal: Investor Sophistication and the Disposition Effect", Management Science, 52(5): 726-740. Feng, L. and Seasholes, M. S., 2005, "Do Investor Sophistication and Trading Experience Eliminate Behavioral Biases in Financial Markets?", Review of Finance, 9(3): 305-351. Ferris, S. P., Haugen, R. A. and Makhija, A. K., 1988, "Predicting Contemporary Volume with Historic Volume at Differential Price Levels: Evidence Supporting the Disposition Effect", The Journal of Finance, 43(3): 677-697. Garvey, R. and Murphy, A., 2004, "Are Professional Traders Too Slow to Realize Their Losses?", Financial Analysts Journal, 60(4): 35-43. Genesove, D. and Mayer, C., 2001, "Loss aversion and seller behavior: Evidence from the housing market", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(4): 1233-1260. Heckman, J. J., 1979, "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error", Econometrica, 47(1): 153-161. Hens, T. and Vlcek, M., 2011, "Does Prospect Theory Explain the Disposition Effect?", Journal of Behavioral Finance, 12(3): 141-157. Ivković, Z., Poterba, J. and Weisbenner, S., 2005, "Tax-Motivated Trading by Individual Investors", The American Economic Review, 95(5): 1605-1630. Joshipura, M., Joshipura, N. and Sharma, A., 2023, "Demystifying disposition effect: past, present and future", Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, ahead-of-print(ahead-of-print). Kadous, K., Tayler, W. B., Thayer, J. M. and Young, D., 2014, "Individual Characteristics and the Disposition Effect: The Opposing Effects of Confidence and Self-Regard", Journal of Behavioral Finance, 15(3): 235-250. Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A., 1979, "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk", Econometrica, 47(2): 263-291. Koenker, R., 2017, "Quantile regression: 40 years on", Annual Review of Economics, 9(1): 155-176. Leal, C. C., Armada, M. J. R. and Duque, J. L., 2006, "New evidences on the disposition effect of individual investors", Faculade de Economia Da Universidade Do Porto Working Paper, 1-30. Lee, J. S., Yen, P. H. and Chan, K. C., 2013, "Market states and disposition effect: evidence from Taiwan mutual fund investors", Applied Economics, 45(10): 1331-1342. Malpezzi, S., 2003, "Hedonic pricing models: a selective and applied review", Housing Economics and Public Policy, 1: 67-89. Odean, T., 1998, "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?", The Journal of Finance, 53(5): 1775-1798. Rosen, S., 1974, "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition", Journal of Political Economy, 82(1): 34-55. Shafir, E., Diamond, P. and Tversky, A., 1997, "Money Illusion*", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(2): 341-374. Shapira, Z. and Venezia, I., 2001, "Patterns of behavior of professionally managed and independent investors", Journal of Banking & Finance, 25(8): 1573-1587. Shefrin, H. and Statman, M., 1985, "The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence", The Journal of Finance, 40(3): 777-790. Smith, L. B., Rosen, K. T. and Fallis, G., 1988, "Recent Developments in Economic Models of Housing Markets", Journal of Economic Literature, 26(1): 29-64. Weber, M. and Welfens, F., 2008, "Splitting the Disposition Effect: Asymmetric Reactions Towards "Selling Winners" and "Holding Losers"", SSRN Electronic Journal. White, H., 1980, "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity", Econometrica, 48(4): 817-838. Wong, K. to., 2013, "Disposition effect in the housing market : empirical evidence from Hong Kong", Unpublished doctoral dissertation, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong SAR. Yiu, C. Y. E., Chau, K. W. and Wong, S. K., 2008, "What Makes Housing Owners Hold?", SSRN Electronic Journal. 3. 綱頁參考文獻 財政部北區國稅局,2023,房地合一(1.0),常見問答。https://www.ntbna.gov.tw/singlehtml/ca5bf361b3e04ef987a5303753f0f37f?cntId=0275a616e0fb4ee2a8b5c2afb4b01e9c#gsc.tab=0 (檢索日期:2023年5月29日)。 好房網News,2022,全台「炒短線」45％重稅沒在怕！專家籲「短期交易形同房屋詐騙！」,10月5日。https://news.housefun.com.tw/news/article/190763350948.html (檢索日期:2023年5月29日)。 翁至威,2023,財長莊翠雲：房地合一2.0上路以來 短期交易減少15%,聯合新聞網,5月25日。https://udn.com/news/story/7243/7189327 (檢索日期:2023年5月29日)。 蕭又安,2020,研究數據 台北「重複交易」賠售比例最高！,MyGoNews買購房地產新聞,3月29日。https://www.mygonews.com/news/detail/news_id/132030 (檢索日期:2023年5月29日)。 游智文,2022,炒房短進短出一年賺220億 房仲老總：形同詐騙,好房網News,10月7日。https://news.housefun.com.tw/news/article/952189351189.html (檢索日期:2023年5月29日)。 朱曼寧,2023,房市短期交易案獲利達334億元 專家曝：不肖房仲聯手投機客造成,聯合新聞網,5月2日。https://udn.com/news/story/7243/7136772 (檢索日期:2023年5月29日)。
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政學系
111257024
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111257024
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林子欽zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lin, Tzu-Chinen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 李佳怡zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Li, Chia-Yien_US
dc.creator (作者) 李佳怡zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Li, Chia-Yien_US
dc.date (日期) 2024en_US
dc.date.accessioned 4-Sep-2024 14:28:19 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 4-Sep-2024 14:28:19 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Sep-2024 14:28:19 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0111257024en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/153254-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 地政學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 111257024zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 許多報章媒體將賺取價差的短期投機客視為房價上漲的推手，但鮮少有針對短期交易者行為與心理的研究。過往若干研究認為台北市住宅市場的投資人受到處分效果影響，在面對獲利的交易時會想盡快出售；在有損失的交易時卻繼續持有。於此同時，2016年實施的房地合一稅制以差別稅率的方式重課短期交易，可能減弱處分效果的影響，卻尚無實證研究驗證。因此，本研究填補過往研究缺口，將住宅區位特徵及移轉稅制改變納入迴歸模型後，發現台北市住宅市場的處分效果已不存在。此外，在房地合一稅實施前，短期投機者確實受到處分效果影響，但在政策實施後，投機客變得更為理性。房地合一稅的實施，雖無法完全消除短期交易，但卻大幅減少處分效果的影響，並使得投資人更為理性地面對市場交易的賺與賠。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) While media often attribute housing price soaring to short-term speculators, research on their behavior and psychology is limited. Some previous studies suggest that investors in Taipei's residential market are influenced by the disposition effect, prompting quick sales of profitable properties while retaining losing investments. The House and Land Transactions Income Tax, implemented in 2016, imposes a higher tax rate on short-term transactions through a differential rate system, potentially weakening the influence of the disposition effect, yet no empirical research has verified this. This study addresses this research gap by incorporating residential location characteristics and tax system changes into regression models. Results indicate the disposition effect has dissipated in Taipei City's residential market. Pre-tax implementation, short-term speculators exhibited the disposition effect; post-implementation, they demonstrated increased rationality. While not eliminating short-term transactions entirely, the tax significantly reduces the disposition effect's impact, fostering more rational investment decisions regarding market gains and losses.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章　緒論 1 第一節　台北市住宅市場的異常現象 1 第二節　研究問題 5 第三節　研究架構 6 第二章　處分效果理論與住宅市場 9 第一節　處分效果的緣起 9 第二節　處分效果於住宅市場之研究 12 第三章　研究方法 17 第一節　分析方法 17 一、 確立方法論 17 二、 研究模型 19 三、 變數選擇 19 第二節　交易資料清理與分析 22 一、 資料來源 22 二、 資料處理 22 三、 重複交易資料敘述性統計 31 第四章　研究結果 39 一、 持有時間差異檢驗 39 二、 含住宅特徵的檢驗 42 三、 房地合一稅政策對處分效果的影響 51 第五章　討論與分析 63 第一節　台北市住宅市場的處分效果 63 一、 與過往研究相左的結果 63 二、 僅存在於短期投機客的處分效果 66 第二節　房地合一稅、處分效果與房價 69 第三節　處分效果消弭對房市的影響 71 第四節　小結 73 第六章　結論與建議 75 參考文獻 77zh_TW
dc.format.extent 2318952 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111257024en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 處分效果zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房地合一稅zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 重複交易資料zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 行為經濟學zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 住宅市場zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Disposition effecten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) House and Land Transactions Income Taxen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Repeat-sales dataen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Behavioral economicsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Residential marketen_US
dc.title (題名) 偏離理性的住宅交易？台北市住宅市場處分效果與房地合一稅zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Deviations from Rationality in Housing Transactions? Disposition Effect in Taipei's Residential Market and the House and Land Transactions Income Taxen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1. 中文參考文獻 林左裕、傅聖元,2015,「住宅市場處置效應之研究」,『都市與計劃』,42(3),doi: 10.6128/CP.42.3.273。 屠美亞、黃耀輝,2014,「不動產特銷稅有效性之實證研究:對短期交易與所得的衝擊」,『住宅學報』,23(2):1-20。 張懿,2016,「臺北市房屋短期重複交易對周圍房價影響之研究」,國立台灣大學社會科學院公共事務研究所碩士論文:台北。 2. 外文參考文獻 Amarnani, N., 2010, "Disposition Effect: A Review of Literature", Microeconomics: General Equilibrium & Disequilibrium Models of Financial Markets eJournal. Retrieved September 1, 2023, from https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:155081601 Barber, B. M., Lee, Y. T., Liu, Y. J. and Odean, T., 2007, "Is the Aggregate Investor Reluctant to Realise Losses? Evidence from Taiwan", European Financial Management, 13(3): 423-447. Barber, B. M., Lee, Y. T., Liu, Y. J. and Odean, T., 2009, "Just How Much Do Individual Investors Lose by Trading?", Review of Financial Studies, 22(2): 609-632. Barberis, N. and Xiong, W., 2009, "What drives the disposition effect? An analysis of a long‐standing preference‐based explanation", The Journal of Finance, 64(2): 751-784. Ben-David, I. and Hirshleifer, D., 2012, "Are Investors Really Reluctant to Realize Their Losses? Trading Responses to Past Returns and the Disposition Effect", Review of Financial Studies, 25(8): 2485-2532. Brown, P., Chappel, N., Da Silva Rosa, R. and Walter, T., 2006, "The Reach of the Disposition Effect: Large Sample Evidence Across Investor Classes", International Review of Finance, 6(1-2): 43-78. Buchinsky, M., 1998, "Recent Advances in Quantile Regression Models: A Practical Guideline for Empirical Research", The Journal of Human Resources, 33(1): 88-126. Buisson, F., 2016, "Prospect Theory and Loss Aversion in the Housing Market", Journal of Real Estate Research, 38(2): 229-250. Chang, C. C., Chao, C. H. and Yeh, J. H., 2014, "Comprehensive Disposition Effect in Real Estate Market", Paper presented at the 30th Australasian Finance and Banking Conference, Sydney. Chang, T. Y., Solomon, D. H. and Westerfield, M. M., 2016, "Looking for Someone to Blame: Delegation, Cognitive Dissonance, and the Disposition Effect", The Journal of Finance, 71(1): 267-302. Chen, G., Kim, K. A., Nofsinger, J. R. and Rui, O. M., 2007, "Trading performance, disposition effect, overconfidence, representativeness bias, and experience of emerging market investors", Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 20(4): 425-451. Dhar, R. and Zhu, N., 2006, "Up Close and Personal: Investor Sophistication and the Disposition Effect", Management Science, 52(5): 726-740. Feng, L. and Seasholes, M. S., 2005, "Do Investor Sophistication and Trading Experience Eliminate Behavioral Biases in Financial Markets?", Review of Finance, 9(3): 305-351. Ferris, S. P., Haugen, R. A. and Makhija, A. K., 1988, "Predicting Contemporary Volume with Historic Volume at Differential Price Levels: Evidence Supporting the Disposition Effect", The Journal of Finance, 43(3): 677-697. Garvey, R. and Murphy, A., 2004, "Are Professional Traders Too Slow to Realize Their Losses?", Financial Analysts Journal, 60(4): 35-43. Genesove, D. and Mayer, C., 2001, "Loss aversion and seller behavior: Evidence from the housing market", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(4): 1233-1260. Heckman, J. J., 1979, "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error", Econometrica, 47(1): 153-161. Hens, T. and Vlcek, M., 2011, "Does Prospect Theory Explain the Disposition Effect?", Journal of Behavioral Finance, 12(3): 141-157. Ivković, Z., Poterba, J. and Weisbenner, S., 2005, "Tax-Motivated Trading by Individual Investors", The American Economic Review, 95(5): 1605-1630. Joshipura, M., Joshipura, N. and Sharma, A., 2023, "Demystifying disposition effect: past, present and future", Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, ahead-of-print(ahead-of-print). Kadous, K., Tayler, W. B., Thayer, J. M. and Young, D., 2014, "Individual Characteristics and the Disposition Effect: The Opposing Effects of Confidence and Self-Regard", Journal of Behavioral Finance, 15(3): 235-250. Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A., 1979, "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk", Econometrica, 47(2): 263-291. Koenker, R., 2017, "Quantile regression: 40 years on", Annual Review of Economics, 9(1): 155-176. Leal, C. C., Armada, M. J. R. and Duque, J. L., 2006, "New evidences on the disposition effect of individual investors", Faculade de Economia Da Universidade Do Porto Working Paper, 1-30. Lee, J. S., Yen, P. H. and Chan, K. C., 2013, "Market states and disposition effect: evidence from Taiwan mutual fund investors", Applied Economics, 45(10): 1331-1342. Malpezzi, S., 2003, "Hedonic pricing models: a selective and applied review", Housing Economics and Public Policy, 1: 67-89. Odean, T., 1998, "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?", The Journal of Finance, 53(5): 1775-1798. Rosen, S., 1974, "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition", Journal of Political Economy, 82(1): 34-55. Shafir, E., Diamond, P. and Tversky, A., 1997, "Money Illusion*", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(2): 341-374. Shapira, Z. and Venezia, I., 2001, "Patterns of behavior of professionally managed and independent investors", Journal of Banking & Finance, 25(8): 1573-1587. Shefrin, H. and Statman, M., 1985, "The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence", The Journal of Finance, 40(3): 777-790. Smith, L. B., Rosen, K. T. and Fallis, G., 1988, "Recent Developments in Economic Models of Housing Markets", Journal of Economic Literature, 26(1): 29-64. Weber, M. and Welfens, F., 2008, "Splitting the Disposition Effect: Asymmetric Reactions Towards "Selling Winners" and "Holding Losers"", SSRN Electronic Journal. White, H., 1980, "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity", Econometrica, 48(4): 817-838. Wong, K. to., 2013, "Disposition effect in the housing market : empirical evidence from Hong Kong", Unpublished doctoral dissertation, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong SAR. Yiu, C. Y. E., Chau, K. W. and Wong, S. 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