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題名 政治因素對臺灣旅遊的影響
The Impact of Political Factors on Tourism in Taiwan作者 林立恩
Lin, Li-En貢獻者 陳國樑
林立恩
Lin, Li-En關鍵詞 中國大陸觀光客
觀光產業
兩岸關係
固定效果模型
差異中的差異
Chinese Mainland Tourists
Tourism Industry
Cross-Strait Relations
Fixed Effects Model
Difference-in-Differences日期 2024 上傳時間 4-Sep-2024 14:45:16 (UTC+8) 摘要 隨著科技革新且航空業技術的進步，觀光產業於近一世紀迅速發展，並成為各國重點發展的產業之一。臺灣近年來觀光業迅速發展並取得不俗的成績。但由於臺灣與中國大陸的特殊歷史因素與政治關係，嚴重影響臺灣內部眾多產業，包含觀光。然而，在相關的文獻研究中，卻鮮少有量化政治對於觀光產業的影響。 本文透過觀光旅館營運月資料與臺北101外籍旅客消費資料，使用固定效果模型與差異中的差異模型，分析2016年執政權移轉後對於臺灣觀光產業的衝擊，量化政治對於觀光產業的影響。研究發現，在觀光旅館方面，房租收入每月顯著下降新臺幣133.7萬元，而中國大陸旅客也顯著下降525.2人，非中國大陸旅客則顯著上升132.3人，但下降的幅度大於上升的幅度。而在購物面的部份，在執政權移轉後，中國大陸旅客在臺北101的消費金額每日顯著下降新臺幣387.3萬元。本文進一步討論臺灣的地方執政權對中國大陸的立場是否會影響地方中國大陸旅客人數，結果發現影響有限，中央執政者的立場還是影響中國大陸旅客人數的主要原因。透過研究結果，本文認為政府應設置更多誘因，配合行銷至國際市場，增加臺灣觀光市場的競爭力，以吸引更多潛在的外籍旅客。
With technological innovations and advancements in aviation technology, the tourism industry has rapidly developed over the past century, becoming a key industry for many countries. In recent years, Taiwan's tourism industry has also rapidly developed and achieved impressive results. However, due to the unique historical and political relationship between Taiwan and Mainland China, many of Taiwan's industries, including tourism, have been significantly affected. Nevertheless, there is a lack of quantitative studies on the impact of politics on the tourism industry in the related literature. This paper uses monthly operational data from tourist hotels and spending data from foreign visitors at Taipei 101, employing fixed effects models and difference-in-differences models to analyze the impact of the 2016 party alternation on Taiwan's tourism industry. The study found that, in terms of tourist hotels, monthly rental income significantly decreased by NT$1.337 million, and the number of visitors from Mainland China significantly decreased by 525.2, while the number of non-Mainland Chinese visitors significantly increased by 132.3. Additionally, Mainland Chinese tourists' daily spending at Taipei 101 dropped by NT$3.873 million. The paper further discusses whether local government attitudes towards Mainland China affect the number of Mainland Chinese visitors locally, finding that the impact is limited and that the central government's stance remains the primary influence on the number of Mainland Chinese visitors. Based on the research findings, the paper suggests that the government should create more incentives and cooperate with international market marketing to increase the competitiveness of Taiwan's tourism market and attract more potential foreign visitors.參考文獻 王玉梅 (2016)，《開放大陸地區人民來臺觀光政策效果之研究》，碩士論文，國立政治大學行政管理碩士學程。 王贊榮 (2015)，《兩岸觀光政策與開放陸客對臺南市觀光衝擊之分析》，碩士論文，國立中正大學戰略暨國際事務研究所。 李翊萍 (2015)，《陸客來臺及國際觀光旅館業經營績效之探討》，碩士論文，銘傳大學國際企業學系碩士班。 范世平 (2005)，「中國大陸旅遊外交政策之研究：以出境旅遊發展為例」，《中國大陸研究》，48，61–97。 陳妍君 (2022)，《中國觀光客對臺灣地方經濟影響-以高雄市為例》，碩士論文，國立中山大學企業管理學系研究所。 單公亮 (2023)，《陸客減少對旅行社衝擊與轉機-以華府旅遊集團為例》，碩士論文，靜宜大學觀光事業學系碩士班。 楊詠捷 (2011)，《開放大陸人民來臺觀光衝擊分析-以花蓮縣為例》，碩士論文，國立東華大學公共行政研究所。 董孟修 (2017)，「陸客團減少因素初探」，《島嶼觀光研究》，10，17–40。 蔡鳳凰、伍大開、陳國樑、周德宇與黃勢璋 (2021)，「退稅便利性與外籍旅客消費－臺北101內部資料分析」，《臺灣經濟預測與政策》，52，83–117。 蕭宇文 (2018)，《陸客來臺觀光之資料分析研究》，碩士論文，國立臺灣大學經濟學研究所。 賴郁欣 (2017)，《兩岸關係緊縮對臺灣觀光產業之衝擊》，碩士論文，中國文化大學財務金融學系碩士班。 Bozkurt, E., A. Altiner, and Ö. Topçuoğlu (2023), “A Panel Hidden Cointegration Analysis on the Political Stability and Tourism Receipts,” Applied Economics Letters, 30, 2530–2535. Card, D. and A. B. Krueger (1994), “Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania,” American Economic Review, 84, 772–793. Causevic, S. and P. Lynch (2013), “Political (In)stability and its Influence on Tourism Development,” Tourism Management, 34, 145–157. Chandra, A., K. Head, and M. Tappata (2014), “The Economics of Cross-Border Travel,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 96, 648–661. Chen, C. C., Y. H. Lai, J. F. Petrick, and Y. H. Lin (2016), “Tourism between Divided Nations:An Examination of Stereotyping on Destination Image,” Tourism Management, 55, 25–36. Chen, K. H. and H. Y. Yang (2010), “Appraising the Economic Impact of the ‘Opening up to Mainland Chinese Tourist Arrivals’ Policy on Taiwan with a Tourism-CGE Model,” Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 15, 155–175. Cheng, M. and A. I. Wong (2014), “Tourism and Chinese Popular Nationalism,” Journal of Tourism and Cultural Change, 12, 307–319. Chou, C. M., S. F. Hsieh, and H. P. Tseng (2014), “The Crowding-out Effects of Chinese Tourists on Inbound Tourism in Taiwan,” Tourism Economics, 20, 1235–1251. Chu, Y., X. Huang, and T. Jin (2021), “Political Relations and Tourism: Evidence from China,” Applied Economics, 53, 5281–5302. Chung, J. Y., C. C. Chen, and Y. H. Lin (2016), “Cross-Strait Tourism and Generational Cohorts,” Journal of Travel Research, 55, 813–826. Dann, G. M. S. (1977), “Anomie, Ego-Enhancement and Tourism,” Annals of Tourism Research, 4, 184–194. Eilat, Y. and L. Einav (2004), “Determinants of International Tourism: A Three-Dimensional Panel Data Analysis,” Applied Economics, 36, 1315–1327. Habibi, F. (2017), “The Determinants of Inbound Tourism to Malaysia: A Panel Data Analysis,” Current Issues in Tourism, 20, 909–930. Juan, Y., Y. Choi, S. An, C. K. Lee, and S. J. Lee (2017), “The Constraints of Chinese Tourists to Visit Korea Caused by THAAD Using Q-Methodology,” Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 22, 1261–1273. Kim, S., B. Prideaux, and D. Timothy (2016), “Factors Affecting Bilateral Chinese and Japanese Travel,” Annals of Tourism Research, 61, 80–95. Lin, P. M. C., H. Qiu Zhang, Q. Gu, and K. L. Peng (2017), “To Go or Not to Go: Travel Constraints and Attractiveness of Travel Affecting Outbound Chinese Tourists to Japan,” Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 34, 1184–1197. Martins, L. F., Y. Gan, and A. Ferreira-Lopes (2017), “An Empirical Analysis of The Influence of Macroeconomic Determinants on World Tourism Demand,” Tourism Management, 61, 248–260. Theocharous, A. L., A. Zopiatis, N. Lambertides, C. S. Savva, and Y. Mansfeld (2020), “Tourism, Instability and Regional Interdependency: Evidence from the Eastern-Mediterranean,” Defence and Peace Economics, 31, 245–268. Tsai, H., B.Kang, R. J. Yeh, and E.Suh (2006), “Examining the Hotel Room Supply and Demand in Las Vegas: A Simultaneous Equations Model,” International Journal of Hospitality Management, 25, 517–524. Tse, T. S. M. (2013), “Chinese Outbound Tourism as a Form of Diplomacy,” Tourism Planning & Development, 10, 149–158. Tse, T. S. M. and J. S. P. Hobson (2008), “The Forces Shaping China's Outbound Tourism,” Journal of China Tourism Research, 4, 136–155. Xu, H., K. Wang, and Y. M. Song (2020), “Chinese Outbound Tourism and Soft Power,” Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 12, 34–49. Zhou, B., Y. Zhang, and P. Zhou (2021), “Multilateral Political Effects on Outbound Tourism,” Annals of Tourism Research, 88, 103184. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
111255026資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111255026 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 陳國樑 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林立恩 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lin, Li-En en_US dc.creator (作者) 林立恩 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Lin, Li-En en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-Sep-2024 14:45:16 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-Sep-2024 14:45:16 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Sep-2024 14:45:16 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0111255026 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/153324 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 111255026 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 隨著科技革新且航空業技術的進步，觀光產業於近一世紀迅速發展，並成為各國重點發展的產業之一。臺灣近年來觀光業迅速發展並取得不俗的成績。但由於臺灣與中國大陸的特殊歷史因素與政治關係，嚴重影響臺灣內部眾多產業，包含觀光。然而，在相關的文獻研究中，卻鮮少有量化政治對於觀光產業的影響。 本文透過觀光旅館營運月資料與臺北101外籍旅客消費資料，使用固定效果模型與差異中的差異模型，分析2016年執政權移轉後對於臺灣觀光產業的衝擊，量化政治對於觀光產業的影響。研究發現，在觀光旅館方面，房租收入每月顯著下降新臺幣133.7萬元，而中國大陸旅客也顯著下降525.2人，非中國大陸旅客則顯著上升132.3人，但下降的幅度大於上升的幅度。而在購物面的部份，在執政權移轉後，中國大陸旅客在臺北101的消費金額每日顯著下降新臺幣387.3萬元。本文進一步討論臺灣的地方執政權對中國大陸的立場是否會影響地方中國大陸旅客人數，結果發現影響有限，中央執政者的立場還是影響中國大陸旅客人數的主要原因。透過研究結果，本文認為政府應設置更多誘因，配合行銷至國際市場，增加臺灣觀光市場的競爭力，以吸引更多潛在的外籍旅客。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) With technological innovations and advancements in aviation technology, the tourism industry has rapidly developed over the past century, becoming a key industry for many countries. In recent years, Taiwan's tourism industry has also rapidly developed and achieved impressive results. However, due to the unique historical and political relationship between Taiwan and Mainland China, many of Taiwan's industries, including tourism, have been significantly affected. Nevertheless, there is a lack of quantitative studies on the impact of politics on the tourism industry in the related literature. This paper uses monthly operational data from tourist hotels and spending data from foreign visitors at Taipei 101, employing fixed effects models and difference-in-differences models to analyze the impact of the 2016 party alternation on Taiwan's tourism industry. The study found that, in terms of tourist hotels, monthly rental income significantly decreased by NT$1.337 million, and the number of visitors from Mainland China significantly decreased by 525.2, while the number of non-Mainland Chinese visitors significantly increased by 132.3. Additionally, Mainland Chinese tourists' daily spending at Taipei 101 dropped by NT$3.873 million. The paper further discusses whether local government attitudes towards Mainland China affect the number of Mainland Chinese visitors locally, finding that the impact is limited and that the central government's stance remains the primary influence on the number of Mainland Chinese visitors. Based on the research findings, the paper suggests that the government should create more incentives and cooperate with international market marketing to increase the competitiveness of Taiwan's tourism market and attract more potential foreign visitors. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第壹章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景 1 第二節 研究目的與動機 9 第三節 研究架構 11 第貳章 文獻回顧 12 第一節 影響觀光需求之因素 12 第二節 中國大陸旅客對於臺灣觀光的影響 15 第參章 研究設計 17 第一節 資料來源 17 第二節 研究方法 19 第三節 敘述統計 25 第肆章 實證結果 33 第一節 主要迴歸結果 33 第二節 穩健性分析 36 第伍章 延伸討論 42 第一節 研究背景 42 第二節 研究分析 43 第陸章 結論與建議 46 參考文獻 49 附錄 一般旅館相關圖表 52 附錄一 資料來源 52 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2160905 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111255026 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中國大陸觀光客 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 觀光產業 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 兩岸關係 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 固定效果模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 差異中的差異 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Chinese Mainland Tourists en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Tourism Industry en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Cross-Strait Relations en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Fixed Effects Model en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Difference-in-Differences en_US dc.title (題名) 政治因素對臺灣旅遊的影響 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Impact of Political Factors on Tourism in Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 王玉梅 (2016)，《開放大陸地區人民來臺觀光政策效果之研究》，碩士論文，國立政治大學行政管理碩士學程。 王贊榮 (2015)，《兩岸觀光政策與開放陸客對臺南市觀光衝擊之分析》，碩士論文，國立中正大學戰略暨國際事務研究所。 李翊萍 (2015)，《陸客來臺及國際觀光旅館業經營績效之探討》，碩士論文，銘傳大學國際企業學系碩士班。 范世平 (2005)，「中國大陸旅遊外交政策之研究：以出境旅遊發展為例」，《中國大陸研究》，48，61–97。 陳妍君 (2022)，《中國觀光客對臺灣地方經濟影響-以高雄市為例》，碩士論文，國立中山大學企業管理學系研究所。 單公亮 (2023)，《陸客減少對旅行社衝擊與轉機-以華府旅遊集團為例》，碩士論文，靜宜大學觀光事業學系碩士班。 楊詠捷 (2011)，《開放大陸人民來臺觀光衝擊分析-以花蓮縣為例》，碩士論文，國立東華大學公共行政研究所。 董孟修 (2017)，「陸客團減少因素初探」，《島嶼觀光研究》，10，17–40。 蔡鳳凰、伍大開、陳國樑、周德宇與黃勢璋 (2021)，「退稅便利性與外籍旅客消費－臺北101內部資料分析」，《臺灣經濟預測與政策》，52，83–117。 蕭宇文 (2018)，《陸客來臺觀光之資料分析研究》，碩士論文，國立臺灣大學經濟學研究所。 賴郁欣 (2017)，《兩岸關係緊縮對臺灣觀光產業之衝擊》，碩士論文，中國文化大學財務金融學系碩士班。 Bozkurt, E., A. Altiner, and Ö. Topçuoğlu (2023), “A Panel Hidden Cointegration Analysis on the Political Stability and Tourism Receipts,” Applied Economics Letters, 30, 2530–2535. Card, D. and A. B. Krueger (1994), “Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania,” American Economic Review, 84, 772–793. Causevic, S. and P. Lynch (2013), “Political (In)stability and its Influence on Tourism Development,” Tourism Management, 34, 145–157. Chandra, A., K. Head, and M. Tappata (2014), “The Economics of Cross-Border Travel,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 96, 648–661. Chen, C. C., Y. H. Lai, J. F. Petrick, and Y. H. Lin (2016), “Tourism between Divided Nations:An Examination of Stereotyping on Destination Image,” Tourism Management, 55, 25–36. Chen, K. H. and H. Y. Yang (2010), “Appraising the Economic Impact of the ‘Opening up to Mainland Chinese Tourist Arrivals’ Policy on Taiwan with a Tourism-CGE Model,” Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 15, 155–175. Cheng, M. and A. I. Wong (2014), “Tourism and Chinese Popular Nationalism,” Journal of Tourism and Cultural Change, 12, 307–319. Chou, C. M., S. F. Hsieh, and H. P. Tseng (2014), “The Crowding-out Effects of Chinese Tourists on Inbound Tourism in Taiwan,” Tourism Economics, 20, 1235–1251. Chu, Y., X. Huang, and T. Jin (2021), “Political Relations and Tourism: Evidence from China,” Applied Economics, 53, 5281–5302. Chung, J. Y., C. C. Chen, and Y. H. Lin (2016), “Cross-Strait Tourism and Generational Cohorts,” Journal of Travel Research, 55, 813–826. Dann, G. M. S. (1977), “Anomie, Ego-Enhancement and Tourism,” Annals of Tourism Research, 4, 184–194. Eilat, Y. and L. Einav (2004), “Determinants of International Tourism: A Three-Dimensional Panel Data Analysis,” Applied Economics, 36, 1315–1327. Habibi, F. (2017), “The Determinants of Inbound Tourism to Malaysia: A Panel Data Analysis,” Current Issues in Tourism, 20, 909–930. Juan, Y., Y. Choi, S. An, C. K. Lee, and S. J. Lee (2017), “The Constraints of Chinese Tourists to Visit Korea Caused by THAAD Using Q-Methodology,” Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 22, 1261–1273. Kim, S., B. Prideaux, and D. Timothy (2016), “Factors Affecting Bilateral Chinese and Japanese Travel,” Annals of Tourism Research, 61, 80–95. Lin, P. M. C., H. Qiu Zhang, Q. Gu, and K. L. Peng (2017), “To Go or Not to Go: Travel Constraints and Attractiveness of Travel Affecting Outbound Chinese Tourists to Japan,” Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 34, 1184–1197. Martins, L. F., Y. Gan, and A. Ferreira-Lopes (2017), “An Empirical Analysis of The Influence of Macroeconomic Determinants on World Tourism Demand,” Tourism Management, 61, 248–260. Theocharous, A. L., A. Zopiatis, N. Lambertides, C. S. Savva, and Y. Mansfeld (2020), “Tourism, Instability and Regional Interdependency: Evidence from the Eastern-Mediterranean,” Defence and Peace Economics, 31, 245–268. Tsai, H., B.Kang, R. J. Yeh, and E.Suh (2006), “Examining the Hotel Room Supply and Demand in Las Vegas: A Simultaneous Equations Model,” International Journal of Hospitality Management, 25, 517–524. Tse, T. S. M. (2013), “Chinese Outbound Tourism as a Form of Diplomacy,” Tourism Planning & Development, 10, 149–158. Tse, T. S. M. and J. S. P. Hobson (2008), “The Forces Shaping China's Outbound Tourism,” Journal of China Tourism Research, 4, 136–155. Xu, H., K. Wang, and Y. M. Song (2020), “Chinese Outbound Tourism and Soft Power,” Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 12, 34–49. Zhou, B., Y. Zhang, and P. Zhou (2021), “Multilateral Political Effects on Outbound Tourism,” Annals of Tourism Research, 88, 103184. zh_TW
