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題名 探討東南亞氣候變遷與政治暴力之重要關聯性
The Nexus Between Climate Change and Organized Political Violence in Southeast Asia作者 河潤玄
Ayanoglu, Harun Talha貢獻者 劉復國
Liu, Fu Kuo
河潤玄
Ayanoglu,Harun Talha關鍵詞 政治暴力
氣候變遷
恐怖主義
東南亞
Political Violence
Climate Change
Terrorism
Southeast Asia日期 2024 上傳時間 4-Sep-2024 15:18:48 (UTC+8) 摘要 氣候變遷和有組織的政治暴力日益受到國際社會的關注，與非傳統安全問題的興起相一致。自此以來，眾多研究人員和專家在各種範疇和背景下研究了這些問題，並檢視其在不同地區的影響。本研究旨在調查氣候變遷與組織性政治暴力之間的聯繫，針對印度尼西亞、菲律賓、泰國和撒哈拉以南非洲的案例進行研究。 通過對歷史和當代案例的分析，本研究確認了氣候變遷與各種形式的政治暴力之間的關係。從赫梯人(Hittites)到中世紀帝國的歷史案例顯示，氣候擾動曾引發了眾多起義和革命。針對敘利亞、埃及和部分非洲地區的現代案例研究顯示，與氣候變遷相關的事件明顯的促成了政治暴力的出現。 為系統性地構建氣候變遷與政治暴力之間的關聯性，本研究採用了從廣泛文獻中研擬出的三元的模型。該模型包括氣候變遷影響的暴露度、社會經濟和政治脆弱性以及組織性武裝反對勢力的存在。此模型架構不僅可闡明氣候變遷與政治暴力之間的關聯性，還可作為預測氣候危機高漲時發生潛在衝突的工具。
Climate change and organized political violence have increasingly captured the attention of the international community, aligning with the rise of non-traditional security issues. Since then, numerous researchers and experts have studied these issues across various scopes and contexts, examining their implications in different regions. This research intended to investigate the link between climate change and organized political violence in the cases of Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Through the analysis of historical and contemporary cases, this study affirms the relationship between climate change and various forms of political violence. Historical examples, from the Hittites to Medieval empires, present that climatic disruptions have triggered numerous uprisings and revolutions. Numbers of studies focusing on modern-day cases such like Syria, Egypt and parts of Africa, suggest that climate change-related events have significantly contributed to the emergence of political violence. To systematically structure the nexus between climate change and political violence, this research employs a triadic risk model, distilled from extensive literature. The model comprises exposure to climate change impacts, socioeconomic and political fragility, and the presence of organized and armed opposition. This framework not only elucidates the connection between climate change and political violence but also serves as a predictive tool for potential conflicts amid the soaring climate crisis.參考文獻 Abel, G. J., Brottrager, M., Crespo Cuaresma, J., & Muttarak, R. (2019). Climate, conflict and forced migration. Global Environmental Change, 54, 239–249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.12.003 Abuza, Z. (2003). Militant Islam in Southeast Asia: Crucible of terror. 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國立政治大學
亞太研究英語博士學位學程(IDAS)
107265504資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107265504 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 劉復國 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Liu, Fu Kuo en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 河潤玄 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Ayanoglu,Harun Talha en_US dc.creator (作者) 河潤玄 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Ayanoglu, Harun Talha en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-Sep-2024 15:18:48 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-Sep-2024 15:18:48 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Sep-2024 15:18:48 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0107265504 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/153459 - dc.description (描述) 博士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 亞太研究英語博士學位學程(IDAS) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 107265504 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 氣候變遷和有組織的政治暴力日益受到國際社會的關注，與非傳統安全問題的興起相一致。自此以來，眾多研究人員和專家在各種範疇和背景下研究了這些問題，並檢視其在不同地區的影響。本研究旨在調查氣候變遷與組織性政治暴力之間的聯繫，針對印度尼西亞、菲律賓、泰國和撒哈拉以南非洲的案例進行研究。 通過對歷史和當代案例的分析，本研究確認了氣候變遷與各種形式的政治暴力之間的關係。從赫梯人(Hittites)到中世紀帝國的歷史案例顯示，氣候擾動曾引發了眾多起義和革命。針對敘利亞、埃及和部分非洲地區的現代案例研究顯示，與氣候變遷相關的事件明顯的促成了政治暴力的出現。 為系統性地構建氣候變遷與政治暴力之間的關聯性，本研究採用了從廣泛文獻中研擬出的三元的模型。該模型包括氣候變遷影響的暴露度、社會經濟和政治脆弱性以及組織性武裝反對勢力的存在。此模型架構不僅可闡明氣候變遷與政治暴力之間的關聯性，還可作為預測氣候危機高漲時發生潛在衝突的工具。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Climate change and organized political violence have increasingly captured the attention of the international community, aligning with the rise of non-traditional security issues. Since then, numerous researchers and experts have studied these issues across various scopes and contexts, examining their implications in different regions. This research intended to investigate the link between climate change and organized political violence in the cases of Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Through the analysis of historical and contemporary cases, this study affirms the relationship between climate change and various forms of political violence. Historical examples, from the Hittites to Medieval empires, present that climatic disruptions have triggered numerous uprisings and revolutions. Numbers of studies focusing on modern-day cases such like Syria, Egypt and parts of Africa, suggest that climate change-related events have significantly contributed to the emergence of political violence. To systematically structure the nexus between climate change and political violence, this research employs a triadic risk model, distilled from extensive literature. The model comprises exposure to climate change impacts, socioeconomic and political fragility, and the presence of organized and armed opposition. This framework not only elucidates the connection between climate change and political violence but also serves as a predictive tool for potential conflicts amid the soaring climate crisis. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION 1 1.1. The Statement of the Issue 1 1.2. Research Questions and Methodology 2 1.2.1. Research Questions 2 1.2.2. Methodology 3 1.3. Literature Review 5 1.3.1. Political Violence and Terrorism 5 1.3.2. Climate Change 13 1.4. Analytical Framework 19 1.5. Contributions and Limitations 25 1.6. Structure of the Study 27 CHAPTER 2 - WHY GLOBAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE MATTER? 30 2.1. Melting Ice and Rising Sea Levels 30 2.2. Biodiversity Loss in Oceans 35 2.3. The Earth’s Intensified Water Cycle 40 2.3.1. Droughts 43 2.3.2. Floods 47 CHAPTER 3 - CLIMATE CHANGE AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE 59 3.1. Historical cases 60 3.1.1. Hittites 60 3.1.2. Huns-Romans 61 3.1.3. Ming and Yuan China 62 3.1.4. Ottoman Turkey 64 3.1.5. Stuart England 65 3.2. Modern-day Cases 67 3.2.1. Africa 68 3.2.2. Arab Spring; Egypt and Syria 71 3.3. Remarks 76 CHAPTER 4 - THE LINK BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND RISK OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN INDONESIA, THAILAND, AND THE PHILIPPINES 79 4.1. Climate Change in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand 80 4.1.1. Sea Level Rise and Floods 83 4.1.2. Food Insecurity 89 4.2. Socioeconomic and Political Conditions 99 4.2.1. Economic Parameters 99 4.2.2. Sociopolitical Parameters 104 4.3. Organized Political Violence 109 4.3.1. Indonesia 112 4.3.2. The Philippines 114 4.3.3. Thailand 116 4.4. Remarks 120 CHAPTER 5 - CONCLUSION 123 5.1. Key Findings 124 5.2. Contribution of This Research 129 5.3. Recommendations for Policy-Makers and Researchers 131 5.4. Concluding Remarks 132 REFERENCES 134 zh_TW dc.format.extent 3848314 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107265504 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 政治暴力 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 氣候變遷 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 恐怖主義 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 東南亞 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Political Violence en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Climate Change en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Terrorism en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Southeast Asia en_US dc.title (題名) 探討東南亞氣候變遷與政治暴力之重要關聯性 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Nexus Between Climate Change and Organized Political Violence in Southeast Asia en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Abel, G. J., Brottrager, M., Crespo Cuaresma, J., & Muttarak, R. (2019). Climate, conflict and forced migration. Global Environmental Change, 54, 239–249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.12.003 Abuza, Z. (2003). Militant Islam in Southeast Asia: Crucible of terror. 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