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題名 美國升息階段台灣財富管理趨勢與轉型 - 以國泰世華銀行為例
Wealth Management Trends and Transformation in Taiwan During the U.S. Interest Rate Hike - A Case Study of Cathay United Bank
作者 謝明勳
Hsieh, Ming-Hsun
貢獻者 陳明進
謝明勳
Hsieh, Ming-Hsun
關鍵詞 美國升息
高資產淨值客戶
投資等級債券
財富管理轉型
U.S. Interest Rate Hike
High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWIs)
Investment-Grade Bonds
Wealth Management Transformation
日期 2024
上傳時間 2-Jan-2025 11:41:32 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究探討美國升息階段對台灣財富管理市場的影響及策略轉型，並以國泰世華銀行為個案分析。自2021年至2023年間，美國聯邦儲備系統（Federal Reserve）積極實施升息政策，導致全球金融市場出現劇烈波動，尤其對於債券市場的評價產生顯著影響。高資產淨值客戶（High-Net-Worth Individuals, HNWIs）對於財富管理的需求在升息環境中也隨之轉變，逐漸偏向於以穩定收益為導向的低風險產品，特別是投資等級公司債（Investment Grade Bonds）。因此，本研究旨在分析台灣的財富管理在升息週期中，如何透過靈活的策略調整來滿足客戶的需求，並維持市場中的競爭優勢。 本研究發現，在高利率環境下，高資產淨值客戶的投資偏好從成長型資產如基金、股票逐漸轉向低風險且穩定的固定收益產品，如投資等級債券。這一轉變反映了高資產淨值客戶對於資本保值與穩定收益的重視，並希望在波動的市場環境中降低資產風險。國泰世華銀行財富管理針對此變化，積極擴展其投資等級債券產品線，並推出多樣化的固定收益產品，以滿足客戶在升息環境中的多元需求。研究顯示，國泰世華銀行的海外債券銷售額從2021年的6.89億美元顯著增長至2024年8月的59.93億美元，達到超過8倍的成長，進一步提升了其財富管理的市場地位。 本研究所探討國泰世華銀行的轉型策略可供台灣的其他財富管理機構參考，特別是在利率波動環境中，迎合高資產淨值客戶在不同市場環境中的投資需求。
This thesis studies the impacts of the U.S. interest rate hike on Taiwan’s wealth management market and its strategic transformation, using Cathay United Bank as a case study. From 2021 to 2023, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of aggressive interest rate hikes, affecting the valuation of bond markets. During this period, the wealth management needs of high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) in Taiwan have also shifted, gradually favoring low-risk, stable-return products. This research aims to analyze how Taiwan’s wealth management industry has adapted its strategies during the rate hike cycle to meet client demands and maintain its competitive edge. In this study discovered that, HNWIs have shifted their investment preferences from growth-oriented assets to low-risk and stable fixed-income products. This shift reflects HNWIs' increased focus on capital preservation and stable returns, with a desire to reduce asset risk in a volatile market environment. Cathay United Bank responded to this change by expanding its product line of investment-grade bonds to cater varied needs. The research shows that Cathay United Bank’s overseas bond sales have grown significantly and further enhancing its position in the wealth management market. This study suggests that Cathay United Bank’s transformation strategies may serve as a reference for other wealth management institutions in Taiwan, especially in addressing the diverse investment needs of HNWIs under a fluctuating interest rate environment.
參考文獻 參考文獻 一、中文部分 中國信託銀行、資誠聯合會計師事務所(2022)，台灣高資產客群財富報告。中國信託銀行https://www.ctbcbank.com/content/dam/twrbo/pdf/wealthmanagement/HNWReport2022.pdf 林睿奇(2019)，《當債券連結國家命運:從債券投資原理看懂全球財經大事件》， 初版。台北市：大寫出版大雁文化。ISBN:978-986-5695-83-5。 林宗耀 (2001)：「利率期限結構與貨幣政策」，中央銀行季刊，第二十三卷第二期，六月，頁37-60。 鉅亨網金融中心(2024)，全球主權評級表 [圖表]。鉅亨網金融中心. https://www.cnyes.com/fc/rating_type.asp 財經M平方MacroMicro(2024, August)，美國消費者物價指數CPI [統計圖]。MacroMicro. https://www.macromicro.me/collections/5/us-price-relative/10/cpi 財經M平方MacroMicro (2024, August)， 美國新屋開工vs.營建許可 [統計圖]。MacroMicro. https://www.macromicro.me/collections/7/us-housing-relative/30/housing-start 財經M平方MacroMicro (2024, September)，美國10年期公債殖利率&投資級公司債 [統計圖]。MacroMicro. https://www.macromicro.me/charts/80460/mei-guo-10-nian-qi-gong-zhai-zhi-li-lyu-tou-zi-ji-gong-si-zhai 國立台灣大學金融研究中心 (2024, September)，2023半年度台大金融中心銀行競爭力評比總排名表[圖表]。國立台灣大學金融研究中心http://ntucsbf.org/csbf/category/銀行評比 國泰金控 (2024)，2024年第二季法人說明會。國泰金控https://www.cathayholdings.com/holdings/-/media/da506f05db7c4663b3ea288da8f0bf7d.pdf?sc_lang=zh-tw 二、英文部分 Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589–609. https://doi.org/10.2307/2978933 Amihud, Y., & Mendelson, H. (1986). Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread. Journal of Financial Economics, 17(2), 223. Retrieved from https://proxyone.lib.nccu.edu.tw/login?url=https://www.proquest.com/scholarly-journals/asset-pricing-bid-ask-spread/docview/231724749/se-2   Ang, A., & Piazzesi, M. (2001). A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables. Cambridge: doi:https://doi.org/10.3386/w8363 Bandyopadhyay, A. (2006). Predicting probability of default of indian corporate bonds: Logistic and Z-score model approaches. The Journal of Risk Finance, 7(3), 255. doi:https://doi.org/10.1108/15265940610664942 Bao, J., Pan, J., & Wang, J. (2011). The Illiquidity of Corporate Bonds. The Journal of Finance, 66(3), 911–946. http://www.jstor.org/stable/29789803 Bernanke, B. S. (2005). The global saving glut and the U.S. current account deficit. St. Louis: Retrieved from https://proxyone.lib.nccu.edu.tw/login?url=https://www.proquest.com/working-papers/global-saving-glut-u-s-current-account-deficit/docview/1698051708/se-2 Bierwag, G.O. (1987). Duration analysis: Managing interest rate risk. Ballinger Publishing Company. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2024, July 5). Monetary Policy report. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/publications/mpr_default.htm Bruce J. G. (1988). Convexity and Bond Performance: The Benter the Better. Financial Analysts Journal, 44(6), 79–81. http://www.jstor.org/stable/4479173   Cox, J. C., Ingersoll, Jonathan E. Jr, & Ross, S. A. (1985). A theory of the term structure of interest rates. Econometrica (Pre-1986), 53(2), 385. Retrieved from https://proxyone.lib.nccu.edu.tw/login?url=https://www.proquest.com/scholarly-journals/theory-term-structure-interest-rates/docview/214651853/se-2 Dieterich, C. (2015). Adding muscle to bond portfolios. Barron's, 95(26), 33. Retrieved from https://proxyone.lib.nccu.edu.tw/login?url=https://www.proquest.com/trade-journals/adding-muscle-bond-portfolios/docview/1691579077/se-2 Fabozzi, F. J. (2005). Handbook of fixed income securities. McGraw-Hill Professional Publishing. Fabozzi, F. J., & Fabozzi, F. A. (2021). Bond markets, analysis, and strategies, tenth edition. MIT Press. Fama, E. F. (1984). Term premiums in bond returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 13(4), 529. Retrieved from https://proxyone.lib.nccu.edu.tw/login?url=https://www.proquest.com/scholarly-journals/term-premiums-bond-returns/docview/231763517/se-2 Feldstein, M. (2002). The role for discretionary fiscal policy in a low interest rate environment. Cambridge: doi:https://doi.org/10.3386/w9203 Fischer, S. (1977). Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule. Journal of Political Economy, 85(1), 191–205. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1828335 Fisher, I. (1930). The Theory of Interest. Macmillan. Fisher, L., & Weil, R. L. (1971). Coping with the Risk of Interest-Rate Fluctuations: Returns to Bondholders from Naïve and Optimal Strategies. The Journal of Business, 44(4), 408–431. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2352056 Friedman, M. (1968). The Role of Monetary Policy. The American Economic Review, 58(1), 1–17. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1831652 iShares. (2024, September 27). iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF [圖表]. iShares. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239566/ishares-iboxx-investment-grade-corporate-bond-etf Judd, K. L., Kubier, F., & Schmedders, K. (2011). Bond Ladders and Optimal Portfolios. The Review of Financial Studies, 24(12), 4123–4166. http://www.jstor.org/stable/41302009 Litterman, R.B., & Scheinkman, J.A. (1991). Common Factors Affecting Bond Returns. The Journal of Fixed Income, 1 (1) 54 – 61. Macaulay, F.R. (1938). Some Theoretical Problems Suggested by the Movements of Interest Rates, Bond Yields and Stock Prices in the United States Since 1856. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 33, 609.   Malkiel, B. G. (1962). Expectations, Bond Prices, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 76(2), 197–218. https://doi.org/10.2307/1880816 Mishkin, F. S. (1996). The channels of monetary transmission: Lessons for monetary policy. Cambridge: doi:https://doi.org/10.3386/w5464 Phillips, A. W. (1958). The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957. Economica, 25(100), 283–299. https://doi.org/10.2307/2550759 Samuelson, P. A. (1945). The Effect of Interest Rate Increases on the Banking System. The American Economic Review, 35(1), 16–27. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1810106 Taylor, J. B. (1993, December). Discretion versus policy rules in practice. In Carnegie-Rochester conference series on public policy (Vol. 39, pp. 195-214). UBS. (2024, September). Global Wealth Report 2024. UBS. https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/insights/global-wealth-report.html Vasicek, O. (1977). An equilibrium characterization of the term structure. Journal of financial economics, 5(2), 177-188.   Wu, Z., Yang, B., & Su, Y. (2022). Corporate bond pricing model with interaction between liquidity and credit risk. Complexity, 2022doi:https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/6331366
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際金融碩士學位學程
112ZB1051
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112ZB1051
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 陳明進zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 謝明勳zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Hsieh, Ming-Hsunen_US
dc.creator (作者) 謝明勳zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Hsieh, Ming-Hsunen_US
dc.date (日期) 2024en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-Jan-2025 11:41:32 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-Jan-2025 11:41:32 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Jan-2025 11:41:32 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0112ZB1051en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/154983-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際金融碩士學位學程zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 112ZB1051zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究探討美國升息階段對台灣財富管理市場的影響及策略轉型，並以國泰世華銀行為個案分析。自2021年至2023年間，美國聯邦儲備系統（Federal Reserve）積極實施升息政策，導致全球金融市場出現劇烈波動，尤其對於債券市場的評價產生顯著影響。高資產淨值客戶（High-Net-Worth Individuals, HNWIs）對於財富管理的需求在升息環境中也隨之轉變，逐漸偏向於以穩定收益為導向的低風險產品，特別是投資等級公司債（Investment Grade Bonds）。因此，本研究旨在分析台灣的財富管理在升息週期中，如何透過靈活的策略調整來滿足客戶的需求，並維持市場中的競爭優勢。 本研究發現，在高利率環境下，高資產淨值客戶的投資偏好從成長型資產如基金、股票逐漸轉向低風險且穩定的固定收益產品，如投資等級債券。這一轉變反映了高資產淨值客戶對於資本保值與穩定收益的重視，並希望在波動的市場環境中降低資產風險。國泰世華銀行財富管理針對此變化，積極擴展其投資等級債券產品線，並推出多樣化的固定收益產品，以滿足客戶在升息環境中的多元需求。研究顯示，國泰世華銀行的海外債券銷售額從2021年的6.89億美元顯著增長至2024年8月的59.93億美元，達到超過8倍的成長，進一步提升了其財富管理的市場地位。 本研究所探討國泰世華銀行的轉型策略可供台灣的其他財富管理機構參考，特別是在利率波動環境中，迎合高資產淨值客戶在不同市場環境中的投資需求。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This thesis studies the impacts of the U.S. interest rate hike on Taiwan’s wealth management market and its strategic transformation, using Cathay United Bank as a case study. From 2021 to 2023, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of aggressive interest rate hikes, affecting the valuation of bond markets. During this period, the wealth management needs of high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) in Taiwan have also shifted, gradually favoring low-risk, stable-return products. This research aims to analyze how Taiwan’s wealth management industry has adapted its strategies during the rate hike cycle to meet client demands and maintain its competitive edge. In this study discovered that, HNWIs have shifted their investment preferences from growth-oriented assets to low-risk and stable fixed-income products. This shift reflects HNWIs' increased focus on capital preservation and stable returns, with a desire to reduce asset risk in a volatile market environment. Cathay United Bank responded to this change by expanding its product line of investment-grade bonds to cater varied needs. The research shows that Cathay United Bank’s overseas bond sales have grown significantly and further enhancing its position in the wealth management market. This study suggests that Cathay United Bank’s transformation strategies may serve as a reference for other wealth management institutions in Taiwan, especially in addressing the diverse investment needs of HNWIs under a fluctuating interest rate environment.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究目的 3 第三節 研究流程 4 第二章 文獻回顧 5 第一節 債券的特性、風險、投資組合文獻回顧 5 2.1.1 債券特性 5 2.1.2 債券風險衡量 9 2.1.3 債券投資組合策略 11 2.1.4 利率期限結構 12 第二節 美國利率政策與文獻回顧 14 2.2.1 利率與經濟指標 14 2.2.2 利率決策與通貨膨脹的關係 15 2.2.3 通貨膨脹與債券市場討論 16 2.2.4 小結 18 第三章 個案銀行分析 20 第一節 個案銀行財富管理部門介紹 20 第二節 個案銀行財富管理結構 22 第三節 個案銀行財富管理競爭分析 24 第四章 實證結果與分析 26 第一節 美國升息背景（2021-2023） 26 第二節 升息階段時的債券表現（2021-2023） 29 4.2.1 債券殖利率倒掛 29 4.2.2 投資等級債券的表現 31 第三節 高資產淨值客群的財富管理需求 34 第四節 個案銀行在升息階段的財富管理策略 41 第五節 個案銀行財富管理轉型策略分析 46 第五章 結論與建議 50 第一節 研究結論 50 第二節 研究建議 52 參考文獻 54zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112ZB1051en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 美國升息zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 高資產淨值客戶zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 投資等級債券zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 財富管理轉型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) U.S. Interest Rate Hikeen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWIs)en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Investment-Grade Bondsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Wealth Management Transformationen_US
dc.title (題名) 美國升息階段台灣財富管理趨勢與轉型 - 以國泰世華銀行為例zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Wealth Management Trends and Transformation in Taiwan During the U.S. Interest Rate Hike - A Case Study of Cathay United Banken_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 參考文獻 一、中文部分 中國信託銀行、資誠聯合會計師事務所(2022)，台灣高資產客群財富報告。中國信託銀行https://www.ctbcbank.com/content/dam/twrbo/pdf/wealthmanagement/HNWReport2022.pdf 林睿奇(2019)，《當債券連結國家命運:從債券投資原理看懂全球財經大事件》， 初版。台北市：大寫出版大雁文化。ISBN:978-986-5695-83-5。 林宗耀 (2001)：「利率期限結構與貨幣政策」，中央銀行季刊，第二十三卷第二期，六月，頁37-60。 鉅亨網金融中心(2024)，全球主權評級表 [圖表]。鉅亨網金融中心. https://www.cnyes.com/fc/rating_type.asp 財經M平方MacroMicro(2024, August)，美國消費者物價指數CPI [統計圖]。MacroMicro. https://www.macromicro.me/collections/5/us-price-relative/10/cpi 財經M平方MacroMicro (2024, August)， 美國新屋開工vs.營建許可 [統計圖]。MacroMicro. https://www.macromicro.me/collections/7/us-housing-relative/30/housing-start 財經M平方MacroMicro (2024, September)，美國10年期公債殖利率&投資級公司債 [統計圖]。MacroMicro. https://www.macromicro.me/charts/80460/mei-guo-10-nian-qi-gong-zhai-zhi-li-lyu-tou-zi-ji-gong-si-zhai 國立台灣大學金融研究中心 (2024, September)，2023半年度台大金融中心銀行競爭力評比總排名表[圖表]。國立台灣大學金融研究中心http://ntucsbf.org/csbf/category/銀行評比 國泰金控 (2024)，2024年第二季法人說明會。國泰金控https://www.cathayholdings.com/holdings/-/media/da506f05db7c4663b3ea288da8f0bf7d.pdf?sc_lang=zh-tw 二、英文部分 Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589–609. https://doi.org/10.2307/2978933 Amihud, Y., & Mendelson, H. (1986). Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread. Journal of Financial Economics, 17(2), 223. Retrieved from https://proxyone.lib.nccu.edu.tw/login?url=https://www.proquest.com/scholarly-journals/asset-pricing-bid-ask-spread/docview/231724749/se-2   Ang, A., & Piazzesi, M. (2001). A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables. Cambridge: doi:https://doi.org/10.3386/w8363 Bandyopadhyay, A. (2006). Predicting probability of default of indian corporate bonds: Logistic and Z-score model approaches. The Journal of Risk Finance, 7(3), 255. doi:https://doi.org/10.1108/15265940610664942 Bao, J., Pan, J., & Wang, J. (2011). The Illiquidity of Corporate Bonds. The Journal of Finance, 66(3), 911–946. http://www.jstor.org/stable/29789803 Bernanke, B. S. (2005). The global saving glut and the U.S. current account deficit. St. Louis: Retrieved from https://proxyone.lib.nccu.edu.tw/login?url=https://www.proquest.com/working-papers/global-saving-glut-u-s-current-account-deficit/docview/1698051708/se-2 Bierwag, G.O. (1987). Duration analysis: Managing interest rate risk. Ballinger Publishing Company. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2024, July 5). Monetary Policy report. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/publications/mpr_default.htm Bruce J. G. (1988). Convexity and Bond Performance: The Benter the Better. Financial Analysts Journal, 44(6), 79–81. http://www.jstor.org/stable/4479173   Cox, J. C., Ingersoll, Jonathan E. Jr, & Ross, S. A. (1985). A theory of the term structure of interest rates. Econometrica (Pre-1986), 53(2), 385. Retrieved from https://proxyone.lib.nccu.edu.tw/login?url=https://www.proquest.com/scholarly-journals/theory-term-structure-interest-rates/docview/214651853/se-2 Dieterich, C. 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