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題名 德國在俄烏戰爭中的外交政策變化研究
A Study on the Changes of Germany’s Foreign Policy in the Russo-Ukrainian War作者 林映中
Lin, Ying-Chung貢獻者 蘇卓馨
Su, Cho-Hsin
林映中
Lin, Ying-Chung關鍵詞 德國外交政策
俄烏戰爭
新古典現實主義
時代轉折
國內政治
Germany’s foreign policy
Russo-Ukrainian war
Neo-classical realism
Zeitenwende
Domestic Politics日期 2024 上傳時間 2-Jan-2025 11:57:29 (UTC+8) 摘要 2022年2月24日，俄軍跨越了俄烏邊境，暴露了普丁對權力的野望。烏克蘭之所以能力抗俄羅斯的軍事優勢，主要是因為西方盟國的持續援助。德國作為僅次於美國的第二大援助盟友，提供烏克蘭許多強力的重型武器，但卻同時面臨缺乏誠意和過於猶豫的批評。俄烏戰爭被視為德國外交政策的轉折點，總理蕭茲將其形容為「時代轉折」或「分水嶺」，自此之後德國外交政策便是學界與媒體的關注焦點。 本文試圖檢視德國外交政策的變化為何以及其原因。新現實主義將體系層次的變化視為政策改變的主要來源，但該論無法解釋德國在面臨俄羅斯帶來的相對權力變動時為何如此謹慎與猶豫。本文則以新古典現實主義為理論框架，將國內政治與個人層級因素重新導入外交政策分析中。透過文獻分析，本文發現在六個外交政策傳統中，有兩個產生猶豫緩慢但顯著的變化，也就是和平主義與東向政策。除此之外，雖然戰爭的壓力催促德國應該採取制衡政策，但諸如民意、政黨政治和戰略文化等國內政治因素卻限制德國在選取政策工具時無法過於積極。換句話說，國內政治才是導致德國政策緩慢的主要原因。
On February 24, 2022, Russian forces crossed the Russia-Ukraine border, revealing Putin’s ambition for influence and power. One key reason Ukraine has been able to fend off the Russian onslaught—despite Russia's apparent military advantage—is the continued support from Ukraine's Western allies. Germany, the second largest aid provider after the US, has supplied several powerful pieces of heavy weaponry to the Ukrainian armed forces. However, Germany has also faced criticism for its perceived half-heartedness and hesitancy. The Russo-Ukrainian War marked a turning point in German foreign policy, described by Chancellor Olaf Scholz as a "Zeitenwende," or "watershed moment." Since then, the shifts in Germany's foreign policy and its stance on Ukraine have become focal points for researchers and the media. This article seeks to examine the shifts in German foreign policy and the reasons behind them. While neorealists often attribute policy changes to system-level pressures, treating international factors as the primary explanatory variable. Germany’s case diverges from this model due to its caution and uncertainty in executing balancing measures amidst a relative power shift towards Russia. Instead, this article applies neo-classical realism as a theoretical framework, reintroducing domestic and individual factors into foreign policy analysis. Through document analysis, this article finds that two of Germany's six key policy traditions—“pacifism” and “Ostpolitik”—have undergone significant changes, albeit accompanied by hesitancy. Moreover, while the war has pushed Germany towards a balancing policy, domestic factors—such as public opinion, party politics, and strategic cilture—have restrained it from acting too aggressively. 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國立政治大學
政治學系
110252004資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110252004 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 蘇卓馨 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Su, Cho-Hsin en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林映中 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lin, Ying-Chung en_US dc.creator (作者) 林映中 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Lin, Ying-Chung en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-Jan-2025 11:57:29 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-Jan-2025 11:57:29 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Jan-2025 11:57:29 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0110252004 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/155008 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 政治學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 110252004 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 2022年2月24日，俄軍跨越了俄烏邊境，暴露了普丁對權力的野望。烏克蘭之所以能力抗俄羅斯的軍事優勢，主要是因為西方盟國的持續援助。德國作為僅次於美國的第二大援助盟友，提供烏克蘭許多強力的重型武器，但卻同時面臨缺乏誠意和過於猶豫的批評。俄烏戰爭被視為德國外交政策的轉折點，總理蕭茲將其形容為「時代轉折」或「分水嶺」，自此之後德國外交政策便是學界與媒體的關注焦點。 本文試圖檢視德國外交政策的變化為何以及其原因。新現實主義將體系層次的變化視為政策改變的主要來源，但該論無法解釋德國在面臨俄羅斯帶來的相對權力變動時為何如此謹慎與猶豫。本文則以新古典現實主義為理論框架，將國內政治與個人層級因素重新導入外交政策分析中。透過文獻分析，本文發現在六個外交政策傳統中，有兩個產生猶豫緩慢但顯著的變化，也就是和平主義與東向政策。除此之外，雖然戰爭的壓力催促德國應該採取制衡政策，但諸如民意、政黨政治和戰略文化等國內政治因素卻限制德國在選取政策工具時無法過於積極。換句話說，國內政治才是導致德國政策緩慢的主要原因。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) On February 24, 2022, Russian forces crossed the Russia-Ukraine border, revealing Putin’s ambition for influence and power. One key reason Ukraine has been able to fend off the Russian onslaught—despite Russia's apparent military advantage—is the continued support from Ukraine's Western allies. Germany, the second largest aid provider after the US, has supplied several powerful pieces of heavy weaponry to the Ukrainian armed forces. However, Germany has also faced criticism for its perceived half-heartedness and hesitancy. The Russo-Ukrainian War marked a turning point in German foreign policy, described by Chancellor Olaf Scholz as a "Zeitenwende," or "watershed moment." Since then, the shifts in Germany's foreign policy and its stance on Ukraine have become focal points for researchers and the media. This article seeks to examine the shifts in German foreign policy and the reasons behind them. While neorealists often attribute policy changes to system-level pressures, treating international factors as the primary explanatory variable. Germany’s case diverges from this model due to its caution and uncertainty in executing balancing measures amidst a relative power shift towards Russia. Instead, this article applies neo-classical realism as a theoretical framework, reintroducing domestic and individual factors into foreign policy analysis. Through document analysis, this article finds that two of Germany's six key policy traditions—“pacifism” and “Ostpolitik”—have undergone significant changes, albeit accompanied by hesitancy. Moreover, while the war has pushed Germany towards a balancing policy, domestic factors—such as public opinion, party politics, and strategic cilture—have restrained it from acting too aggressively. In other words, “Innenpolitik” (domestic politics) has led Germany to pursue cautious, partial, and hesitant foreign policy changes. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 摘要 i Abstract ii 表次 v 壹、緒論 1 一、研究動機與目的 1 二、問題意識 3 三、文獻回顧 3 （一）新古典現實主義 3 （二）國內政治與決策者在外交政策中扮演的角色 7 （三）德國國內政治對其外交政策的影響 10 1. 民意 10 2. 政黨 12 3. 歷史、政治文化與國家認同 14 （四）文獻對德國在俄烏戰爭中的外交政策之解讀 16 四、研究方法、範圍、對象與資料來源 19 （一）研究方法 19 1. 文獻分析 19 2. 個案研究 20 （二）研究範圍、對象與資料來源 20 （三）章節安排 22 貳、在戰爭中的外交政策變化 23 一、戰前的傳統 23 二、戰後的改變 30 三、小節 37 參、體系層次的壓力 42 一、俄烏戰爭導致的體系變動 42 二、西方陣營的期待 46 三、小節 48 肆、國內政治 49 一、民意 49 二、政黨政治 55 （一）社民黨 56 （二）綠黨 58 （三）自民黨 59 （四）基民盟 60 （五）另類選擇與左翼黨 62 三、戰略文化 64 四、小節 67 伍、結論 68 一、兩個層次對決策者的影響 69 二、研究貢獻與限制 73 參考文獻 76 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2513227 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110252004 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 德國外交政策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 俄烏戰爭 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 新古典現實主義 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 時代轉折 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 國內政治 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Germany’s foreign policy en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Russo-Ukrainian war en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Neo-classical realism en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Zeitenwende en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Domestic Politics en_US dc.title (題名) 德國在俄烏戰爭中的外交政策變化研究 zh_TW dc.title (題名) A Study on the Changes of Germany’s Foreign Policy in the Russo-Ukrainian War en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中央社，2022，〈俄中止參與黑海穀物出口協議 全球糧食危機恐再起〉，https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202210300211.aspx，查閱時間：2024/10/08。 王順文，2013，〈德國參與國際軍事行動之考量原則：以拒絕參與伊拉克行動為例〉，《全球政治評論》43：83-109。 甘逸驊，2007，〈歐盟“柔性強權”身份認同的建構與批判〉，《問題與研究》46（4）：1-25。 沈有忠，2017，〈選舉制度與公民投票〉，王業立主編，《政治學與臺灣政治》379-402，台北：五南。 吳玉山，2023，〈如何站位？俄烏戰爭與戰略抉擇〉，《思想》46：317-326。 保羅．科爾比，2022，〈俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭：俄羅斯為什麼要在俄佔區進行「公投」？〉，https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world-62990863，查閱時間：2024/10/08。 林淑馨，2010，《質性研究：理論與實務》，台北：巨流。 許智翔，2022，〈烏俄戰爭是否真讓德國經歷安全政策「轉捩點」？〉，《全球政治評論》78：15-23。 許智翔，2023，〈德國首份《國家安全戰略》文件初探〉，https://indsr.org.tw/focus?typeid=28&uid=11&pid=2639，查閱時間：2024/09/01。 張鎮宏，2022，〈5日內26萬年輕男性出逃，俄羅斯如何面對「普丁大徵兵」的炮灰動員令？〉，https://www.twreporter.org/a/hello-world-2022-09-28，查閱時間：2024/10/08。 黃紀，2016，〈調查研究設計〉，陳陸輝主編，《民意調查研究》31-58，台北：五南。 葉陽明，2011，《德國政治新論》，台北：五南。 葉陽明，2014，《德國安全政策》，台北：五南。 廖舜右、蔡松柏，2013，〈新古典現實主義與外交政策分析的再連結〉，《問題與研究》52（3）：43-61。 廖舜右，2020，〈現實主義〉，張亞中及張登及主編，《國際關係總論》：43-74。 劉書彬，2011，〈梅克爾大聯合政府：立法決策體系中的黨政關係〉，《歐美研究》41（1）：309-382。 鄭端耀，2005，〈國際關係新古典現實主義理論〉，《問題與研究》44（1）： 115-140。 轉角國際，2021，〈潛艦風暴的解釋：澳洲AUKUS突襲「法國軍售外交」崩潰？〉，https://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8663/5766425，查閱時間：2024/10/08。 轉角國際，2022，〈烏克蘭戰報#28：俄軍撤離後「布查慘案」倖存者的地獄見證〉，https://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8662/6223750，查閱時間：2024/10/08。 轉角國際，2024，〈瑞典成為北約國的最後一步：土耳其批准入盟申請，只待匈牙利點頭同意〉，https://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8662/7730119，查閱時間：2024/10/08。 BBC，2022a，〈烏克蘭危機：普京下令核威懾高度戒備 核按鈕會被按下嗎〉，https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world-60551798，查閱時間：2024/10/08。 BBC，2022b，〈烏克蘭戰爭：俄羅斯會不會使用戰術核武器？〉，https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world-63025996，查閱時間：2024/10/08。 BBC，2022c，〈俄烏戰爭推高全球食品價格 到底有多少糧食被困在烏克蘭？〉，https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world-62304460，查閱時間：2024/10/08。 RFI，2023，〈白俄羅斯開始接收俄羅斯核武器〉，https://www.rfi.fr/tw/%E6%AD%90%E6%B4%B2/20230614-%E7%99%BD%E4%BF%84%E7%BE%85%E6%96%AF%E9%96%8B%E5%A7%8B%E6%8E%A5%E6%94%B6%E4%BF%84%E7%BE%85%E6%96%AF%E6%A0%B8%E6%AD%A6%E5%99%A8，查閱時間：2024/10/08。 AfD. 2024. “Positionspapier der AfD-Bundestagsfraktion zum Russland-Ukraine-Krieg.” https://afdbundestag.de/positionspapier-ukraine-krieg/ (Accessed on November 29, 2024). 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