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題名 企業轉型策略對股價相關性之分析：以日本五大商社為例
The Analysis of the Relationship Between Corporate Transformation Strategies and Stock Prices: A Case Study of Japan’s Five Major Trading Companies
作者 吳昕憓
Wu, Hsin-Hui
貢獻者 周冠男<br>梁嘉紋
Chou, Robin K.<br>Liang, Jia-Wen
吳昕憓
Wu, Hsin-Hui
關鍵詞 日本五大商社
企業轉型
獲利穩定度
市場評價
日期 2025
上傳時間 4-Feb-2025 15:24:56 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究探討2014-2023年間日本五大綜合商社的轉型策略如何影響其獲利穩定度及市場評價。在全球經濟格局變遷、地緣政治緊張及永續發展訴求興起的背景下，傳統以大宗商品貿易為主的商社經營模式面臨根本性衝擊。為因應這些挑戰，商社紛紛降低對傳統貿易業務的依賴，轉向發展具有更高附加價值的業務組合。本研究採用案例分析法，通過質性描述與基礎統計分析，探討五大商社在轉型過程中的關鍵決策、策略方向及營運績效變化。研究發現，商社透過調整業務結構、強化投資管理、布局新興產業等策略，成功改善了獲利穩定性。統計分析顯示，獲利穩定度與市場評價呈現顯著相關，企業轉型策略的成效直接反映在股價表現與評價水準的提升上。進一步分析發現，商社在轉型過程中普遍加強了ESG相關投資，並強化公司治理架構，這些措施不僅提升了企業的永續發展能力，也獲得了市場的正面評價。特別是在降低資源業務依賴度、發展服務型業務等方面的努力，為商社帶來了更穩定的獲利來源。
參考文獻 Yoshino, M. Y. & Lifson, T. B. (1986). The Invisible Link: Japan's Sogo Shosha and the Organization of Trade. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press. Young, A. K. (1979). The Sogo Shosha: Japan's Multinational Trading Companies. Boulder, Colorado: Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press. Kojima, K. & Ozawa, T. (1984). Japan's General Trading Companies. Paris, France: OECD Development Center. Meyer, K. E. & Mudambi, R. & Narula, R. (2011). Multinational Enterprises and Local Contexts: The Opportunities and Challenges of Multiple Embeddedness. Journal of Management Studies, 48(2), 235-252. doi:10.1111/j.1467-6486.2010.00968.x Williamson, O. E. (1985). The Economic Institutions of Capitalism: Firms, Markets, Relational Contracting. New York: Free Press. Granovetter, M. (1985). Economic Action and Social Structure: The Problem of Embeddedness. American Journal of Sociology, 91(3), 481-510. doi:10.1086/228311 Barney, J. (1991). Firm Resources and Sustained Competitive Advantage. Journal of Management, 17(1), 99-120. doi:10.1177/014920639101700108 Takeuchi, M. (1994). Modern Spherical Functions. Berlin, Germany: Springer. Delios, A. & Singh, K. (2005). The Subsidence of “Japanese” Investment in North America. Asia Pacific Journal of Management, 22(1), 89-121. doi:10.1007/s10490-005-6414-0 Pirrong, C. (2014). Commodity Markets and the Global Economy. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press. Geman, H. (2005). Commodities and Commodity Derivatives: Modelling and Pricing for Agriculturals, Metals and Energy. Chichester, United Kingdom: Wiley Finance. Carter, C. (1999). Commodity Risk Management: Theory and Application. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press. Cashin, P. & McDermott, C. J. & Scott A. (2002). Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices. Journal of Development Economics, 66(1), 277-296. doi:10.1016/S0304-3878(02)00062-7 Edwards, F. R. & Ma, C. W. (2016). Commodities as an Asset Class: Implications for Portfolio Diversification. New York: McGraw-Hill Education. Teece, D. J. & Pisano, G. & Shuen, A. (1997). Dynamic Capabilities and Strategic Management. Strategic Management Journal, 18(7), 509-533. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0266(199708)18:7<509::AID-SMJ882>3.0.CO;2-Z Ansoff, H. I. (1957). Strategies for Diversification. Harvard Business Review, 35(5), 113-124. Kane, G. C. & Palmer, D. & Phillips, A. N. & Kiron, D. & Buckley, N. (2015). Strategy, Not Technology, Drives Digital Transformation. MIT Sloan Management Review, 56(3), 1-25. Day, G. S. (1999). The Market Driven Organization: Understanding, Attracting, and Keeping Valuable Customer. New York: Free Press. Tushman, M. L. & O'Reilly, C. A. (1996). Ambidextrous Organizations: Managing Evolutionary and Revolutionary Change. California Management Review, 38(4), 8-30. doi:10.2307/41165852 Henderson, B. D. (1970). The Product Portfolio. Perspectives(Boston Consulting Group, BCG), 66(NA),1-4. Porter, M. E. (1987). From Competitive Advantage to Corporate Strategy. Harvard Business Review, 1987(5-6月號), 43-59. Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio Selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77–91. doi:10.2307/2975974 Prahalad, C. K. & Hamel, G. (1990). The Core Competence of the Corporation. Harvard Business Review, 68(3), 79-91 Goold, M. & Campbell, A. (1998). Corporate-Level Strategy: Creating Value in the Multibusiness Company. New York: John Wiley & Sons. Beaver, W. H. (1970). The Information Content of Annual Earnings Announcements. Journal of Accounting Research,6(Supplement), 67-92. doi:10.2307/2490070 Froot, K. A. & Scharfstein, D. S. & Stein, J. C. (1993). Risk Management: Coordinating Corporate Investment and Financing Policies. 48(5), 1629–1658, doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb05123.x Gordon, M. J. (1962). The Investment, Financing, and Valuation of the Corporation. Homewood, Illinois: Richard D. Irwin, Inc. Rappaport, A. (1986). Creating Shareholder Value: A Guide for Managers and Investors. New York: Free Press. Beaver, W. H. & Morse, D. (1978). What Determines Price-Earnings Ratios? Financial Analysts Journal, 34(4), 65-76. doi:10.2469/faj.v34.n4.65 Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. (1992). The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns. The Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427-465. doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04398.x Kaplan, S. N. & Ruback, R. S. (1995). The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis. The Journal of Finance, 50(4), 1059-1093. doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04050.x Beaver, W. H. (1970). The Time Series Behavior of Earnings Journal of Accounting Research,8(3), 62-99. doi:10.2307/2490225 Penman, S. H. (1992). Return to Fundamentals. Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance, 7(4), 465-483. doi:10.1177/0148558X9200700403 Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. (1993). Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 33(1), 3-56. doi:10.1016/0304-405X(93)90023-5 Nissim, D. & Penman, S. H. (2001). Ratio Analysis and Equity Valuation: From Research to Practice. Review of Accounting Studies, 6(1), 109-154. doi:10.1023/A:1011338221623 Minton, B. A. & Schrand, C. M. (1999). The Impact of Cash Flow Volatility on Discretionary Investment and the Costs of Debt and Equity Financing. Journal of Financial Economics, 54(3), 423-460. doi:10.1016/S0304-405X(99)00042-2 Rosenberg, B. & Guy, J. (1976). Beta and Investment Fundamentals. Financial Analysts Journal, 32(3), 60-72. doi:10.2469/faj.v32.n3.60 Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk. Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442. doi:10.2307/2977928 Dichev, I. D. & Tang, V. W. (2009). Earnings Volatility and Earnings Predictability. Earnings Volatility and Earnings Predictability, 47(1-2), 160-181. doi:10.1016/j.jacceco.2008.09.005 Francis, J. & LaFond, R. & Olsson, P. & Schipper, K. (2004). Costs of Equity and Earnings Attributes. The Accounting Review, 79(4), 967-1010. doi:10.2308/accr.2004.79.4.967 Graham, J. R. & Harvey, C. R. & Rajgopal, S. (2005). The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 40(1-3), 3-73. doi:10.1016/j.jacceco.2005.01.002
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經營管理碩士學程(EMBA)
112932108
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112932108
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 周冠男<br>梁嘉紋zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chou, Robin K.<br>Liang, Jia-Wenen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 吳昕憓zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Wu, Hsin-Huien_US
dc.creator (作者) 吳昕憓zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Wu, Hsin-Huien_US
dc.date (日期) 2025en_US
dc.date.accessioned 4-Feb-2025 15:24:56 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 4-Feb-2025 15:24:56 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Feb-2025 15:24:56 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0112932108en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/155408-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經營管理碩士學程(EMBA)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 112932108zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究探討2014-2023年間日本五大綜合商社的轉型策略如何影響其獲利穩定度及市場評價。在全球經濟格局變遷、地緣政治緊張及永續發展訴求興起的背景下，傳統以大宗商品貿易為主的商社經營模式面臨根本性衝擊。為因應這些挑戰，商社紛紛降低對傳統貿易業務的依賴，轉向發展具有更高附加價值的業務組合。本研究採用案例分析法，通過質性描述與基礎統計分析，探討五大商社在轉型過程中的關鍵決策、策略方向及營運績效變化。研究發現，商社透過調整業務結構、強化投資管理、布局新興產業等策略，成功改善了獲利穩定性。統計分析顯示，獲利穩定度與市場評價呈現顯著相關，企業轉型策略的成效直接反映在股價表現與評價水準的提升上。進一步分析發現，商社在轉型過程中普遍加強了ESG相關投資，並強化公司治理架構，這些措施不僅提升了企業的永續發展能力，也獲得了市場的正面評價。特別是在降低資源業務依賴度、發展服務型業務等方面的努力，為商社帶來了更穩定的獲利來源。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 摘要 1 第一章 緒論 4 第一節 研究動機及背景 4 第二節 研究目的 5 第三節 研究範圍與限制 5 第二章 文獻探討 7 第一節 商社經營模式相關理論 7 第二節 企業轉型策略理論 8 第三節 獲利穩定度與股價評價 10 第三章 研究方法 16 第一節 資料來源與整理 16 第二節 研究假說 17 第三節 研究架構 19 第四章 實證結果與分析 23 第一節 轉型策略與獲利穩定度變化分析 23 第二節 獲利穩定度與股價評價變化分析 50 第三節 獲利穩定度與股價評價的相關性分析 57 第五章 結論與建議 59 第一節 研究假設驗證 59 第二節 研究建議 59 參考文獻 62zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1804384 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112932108en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 日本五大商社zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 企業轉型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 獲利穩定度zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 市場評價zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 企業轉型策略對股價相關性之分析：以日本五大商社為例zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Analysis of the Relationship Between Corporate Transformation Strategies and Stock Prices: A Case Study of Japan’s Five Major Trading Companiesen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Yoshino, M. Y. & Lifson, T. B. (1986). The Invisible Link: Japan's Sogo Shosha and the Organization of Trade. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press. Young, A. K. (1979). The Sogo Shosha: Japan's Multinational Trading Companies. Boulder, Colorado: Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press. Kojima, K. & Ozawa, T. (1984). Japan's General Trading Companies. Paris, France: OECD Development Center. Meyer, K. E. & Mudambi, R. & Narula, R. (2011). Multinational Enterprises and Local Contexts: The Opportunities and Challenges of Multiple Embeddedness. Journal of Management Studies, 48(2), 235-252. doi:10.1111/j.1467-6486.2010.00968.x Williamson, O. E. (1985). The Economic Institutions of Capitalism: Firms, Markets, Relational Contracting. New York: Free Press. Granovetter, M. (1985). Economic Action and Social Structure: The Problem of Embeddedness. American Journal of Sociology, 91(3), 481-510. doi:10.1086/228311 Barney, J. (1991). Firm Resources and Sustained Competitive Advantage. Journal of Management, 17(1), 99-120. doi:10.1177/014920639101700108 Takeuchi, M. (1994). Modern Spherical Functions. Berlin, Germany: Springer. Delios, A. & Singh, K. (2005). The Subsidence of “Japanese” Investment in North America. Asia Pacific Journal of Management, 22(1), 89-121. doi:10.1007/s10490-005-6414-0 Pirrong, C. (2014). Commodity Markets and the Global Economy. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press. Geman, H. (2005). Commodities and Commodity Derivatives: Modelling and Pricing for Agriculturals, Metals and Energy. Chichester, United Kingdom: Wiley Finance. Carter, C. (1999). Commodity Risk Management: Theory and Application. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press. Cashin, P. & McDermott, C. J. & Scott A. (2002). Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices. Journal of Development Economics, 66(1), 277-296. doi:10.1016/S0304-3878(02)00062-7 Edwards, F. R. & Ma, C. W. (2016). Commodities as an Asset Class: Implications for Portfolio Diversification. New York: McGraw-Hill Education. Teece, D. J. & Pisano, G. & Shuen, A. (1997). Dynamic Capabilities and Strategic Management. Strategic Management Journal, 18(7), 509-533. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0266(199708)18:7<509::AID-SMJ882>3.0.CO;2-Z Ansoff, H. I. (1957). Strategies for Diversification. Harvard Business Review, 35(5), 113-124. Kane, G. C. & Palmer, D. & Phillips, A. N. & Kiron, D. & Buckley, N. (2015). Strategy, Not Technology, Drives Digital Transformation. MIT Sloan Management Review, 56(3), 1-25. Day, G. S. (1999). The Market Driven Organization: Understanding, Attracting, and Keeping Valuable Customer. New York: Free Press. Tushman, M. L. & O'Reilly, C. A. (1996). Ambidextrous Organizations: Managing Evolutionary and Revolutionary Change. California Management Review, 38(4), 8-30. doi:10.2307/41165852 Henderson, B. D. (1970). The Product Portfolio. Perspectives(Boston Consulting Group, BCG), 66(NA),1-4. Porter, M. E. (1987). From Competitive Advantage to Corporate Strategy. Harvard Business Review, 1987(5-6月號), 43-59. Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio Selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77–91. doi:10.2307/2975974 Prahalad, C. K. & Hamel, G. (1990). The Core Competence of the Corporation. Harvard Business Review, 68(3), 79-91 Goold, M. & Campbell, A. (1998). Corporate-Level Strategy: Creating Value in the Multibusiness Company. New York: John Wiley & Sons. Beaver, W. H. (1970). The Information Content of Annual Earnings Announcements. Journal of Accounting Research,6(Supplement), 67-92. doi:10.2307/2490070 Froot, K. A. & Scharfstein, D. S. & Stein, J. C. (1993). Risk Management: Coordinating Corporate Investment and Financing Policies. 48(5), 1629–1658, doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb05123.x Gordon, M. J. (1962). The Investment, Financing, and Valuation of the Corporation. Homewood, Illinois: Richard D. Irwin, Inc. Rappaport, A. (1986). Creating Shareholder Value: A Guide for Managers and Investors. New York: Free Press. Beaver, W. H. & Morse, D. (1978). What Determines Price-Earnings Ratios? Financial Analysts Journal, 34(4), 65-76. doi:10.2469/faj.v34.n4.65 Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. (1992). The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns. The Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427-465. doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04398.x Kaplan, S. N. & Ruback, R. S. (1995). The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis. The Journal of Finance, 50(4), 1059-1093. doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04050.x Beaver, W. H. (1970). The Time Series Behavior of Earnings Journal of Accounting Research,8(3), 62-99. doi:10.2307/2490225 Penman, S. H. (1992). Return to Fundamentals. Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance, 7(4), 465-483. doi:10.1177/0148558X9200700403 Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. (1993). Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 33(1), 3-56. doi:10.1016/0304-405X(93)90023-5 Nissim, D. & Penman, S. H. (2001). Ratio Analysis and Equity Valuation: From Research to Practice. Review of Accounting Studies, 6(1), 109-154. doi:10.1023/A:1011338221623 Minton, B. A. & Schrand, C. M. (1999). The Impact of Cash Flow Volatility on Discretionary Investment and the Costs of Debt and Equity Financing. Journal of Financial Economics, 54(3), 423-460. doi:10.1016/S0304-405X(99)00042-2 Rosenberg, B. & Guy, J. (1976). Beta and Investment Fundamentals. Financial Analysts Journal, 32(3), 60-72. doi:10.2469/faj.v32.n3.60 Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk. Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442. doi:10.2307/2977928 Dichev, I. D. & Tang, V. W. (2009). Earnings Volatility and Earnings Predictability. Earnings Volatility and Earnings Predictability, 47(1-2), 160-181. doi:10.1016/j.jacceco.2008.09.005 Francis, J. & LaFond, R. & Olsson, P. & Schipper, K. (2004). Costs of Equity and Earnings Attributes. The Accounting Review, 79(4), 967-1010. doi:10.2308/accr.2004.79.4.967 Graham, J. R. & Harvey, C. R. & Rajgopal, S. (2005). The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 40(1-3), 3-73. doi:10.1016/j.jacceco.2005.01.002zh_TW