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題名 地緣政治對國防支出與配置之影響 - 以北約國家為例
The Impact of Geopolitics on Defense Spending and Allocation : A Case Study of NATO Countries
作者 張智賢
Chag, Chih-Hsien
貢獻者 翁永和
Weng, Yung-Ho
張智賢
Chag, Chih-Hsien
關鍵詞 國防支出與配置
地緣政治風險
Defense Spending and Allocation
Geopolitical Risk
日期 2024
上傳時間 3-Mar-2025 13:25:35 (UTC+8)
摘要 「國防支出與配置」是指國家在面臨多元安全挑戰與地緣政治風險時，針對國防資源進行分配與運用的策略性決策，其目的在於保障國家主權、維持國防能力及應對安全威脅，其中國防支出配置項目統一區分為，設備(裝備)、人員、基礎建設及其他等4類。本研究以北約國家為研究樣本，從地緣政治風險作為切入點，並加入人均GDP等7項其他因素，探討這些因素對國防支出及其配置模式的影響力。從實證迴歸結果發現，「地緣政治風險」對國防總支出占GDP比例、設備(裝備)及其他類國防支出占比有正向顯著影響，而對人員類占比具有負向顯著影響；「人均GDP」與「中央政府支出」均對國防總支出占GDP比例、設備(裝備)、基礎建設及其他類國防支出占比有正向顯著影響，人員類占比具有負向顯著影響；「經濟開放程度」對國防總支出占GDP比例及設備(裝備)類國防支出占比有負向顯著影響，人員及基礎建設類占比具有正向顯著影響；「城市化程度」對國防總支出占GDP比例、設備(裝備)及基礎建設類國防支出占比有負向顯著影響，人員類占比具有正向顯著影響；「政體(民主指數)」對國防總支出占GDP比例、設備(裝備)及基礎建設類國防支出占比有負向顯著影響，人員及其他類占比具有正向顯著影響。
"Defense spending and allocation" refers to the strategic decisions a nation makes to distribute and utilize defense resources in response to security challenges and geopolitical risks. Its goal is to safeguard sovereignty, maintain defense capabilities, and address threats. Defense spending is divided into four categories: equipment (armament), personnel, infrastructure, and others. This study examines NATO countries, focusing on geopolitical risk and seven additional factors, including national income, to analyze their impact on defense spending and allocation. The regression results show that "geopolitical risk" positively influences total defense spending as a percentage of GDP, as well as spending on equipment and other categories, but negatively affects personnel spending. "National income" and "central government expenditure" positively affect total defense spending, as well as spending on equipment, infrastructure, and other categories, but negatively impact personnel spending. "Economic openness" negatively affects total defense spending and equipment spending but positively influences personnel and infrastructure spending. "Urbanization" negatively impacts total defense spending, equipment, and infrastructure but positively affects personnel spending. Finally, "political regime (democracy index)" negatively influences total defense spending, equipment, and infrastructure, while positively affecting personnel and other categories.
參考文獻 Becker, J., and Dunne, J. P. (2023). Military spending composition and economic growth. Defence and Peace Economics, 34(3), 259-271. Becker, J., and Malesky, E. (2017). The continent or the “grand large”? Strategic culture and operational burden-sharing in NATO. International studies quarterly, 61(1), 163-180. Becker, J., Benson, S., Dunne, J. P., and Malesky, E. J. (2022). Disaggregated Defense Spending: Introduction to Data and the Case for Systematic Use. SSRN. Bove, V., and Brauner, J. (2016). The demand for military expenditure in authoritarian regimes. Defence and peace economics, 27(5), 609-625. Brauner, J. (2015). Military spending and democracy. Defence and Peace Economics, 26(4), 409-423. Caldara, D., and Iacoviello, M. (2022). Measuring geopolitical risk. American Economic Review, 112(4), 1194-1225. Cameron, D. R. (1978). The expansion of the public economy: A comparative analysis. American political science review, 72(4), 1243-1261. Deger, S., and Smith, R. (1983). Military expenditure and growth in less developed countries. Journal of conflict resolution, 27(2), 335-353. Desta, L. (2009). Determinants of military expenditure: The case of the post-Cold War years. The University of Texas at Dallas. Dunne, J. P., and Mohammed, N. A. (1995). Military spending in sub-saharan africa: Some evidence for 1967-85. Journal of Peace research, 32(3), 331-343. Dunne, P., and Perlo-Freeman, S. (2003). The demand for military spending in developing countries. International Review of Applied Economics, 17(1), 23-48. Emmanouilidis, K., and Karpetis, C. (2022). Cross–country dependence, heterogeneity and the growth effects of military spending. Defence and Peace Economics, 33(7), 842-856. George, J., and Sandler, T. (2021). EU demand for defense, 1990–2019: A strategic spatial approach. Games, 12(1), 13. Gupta, S., De Mello, L., and Sharan, R. (2001). Corruption and military spending. European journal of political economy, 17(4), 749-777.Becker, J., and Dunne, J. P. (2023). Military spending composition and economic growth. Defence and Peace Economics, 34(3), 259-271. Khan, K., Su, C. W., and Rizvi, S. K. A. (2022). Guns and blood: A review of geopolitical risk and defence expenditures. Defence and Peace Economics, 33(1), 42-58. Kofroň, J., and Stauber, J. (2024). Spending on personnel or equipment: panel analysis of military expenditures in the NATO countries 2005–2019. European Security, 1-25. Maizels, A., and Nissanke, M. K. (1986). The determinants of military expenditures in developing countries. World Development, 14(9), 1125-1140. Murdoch, J. C., and Sandler, T. (1982). A theoretical and empirical analysis of NATO. Journal of conflict resolution, 26(2), 237-263. Nikolaidou, E. (2008). The demand for military expenditure: Evidence from the EU15 (1961–2005). Defence and Peace Economics, 19(4), 273-292. Rosh, R. M. (1988). Third world militarization: Security webs and the states they ensnare. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 32(4), 671-698. Sandler, T., and George, J. (2016). Military expenditure trends for 1960–2014 and what they reveal. Global Policy, 7(2), 174-184. Sipri. (2021). Sipri Yearbook 2021: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. Stone, J. C. (2005). Planning defence budget allocations for Canada's Strategy 2020. Defence and Peace Economics, 16(3), 223-246. Sweidan, O. D. (2023). Geopolitical risk and military expenditures: Evidence from the US economy. Russian Journal of Economics, 9(2), 201-218. Sweidan, O. D. (2023). The effect of geopolitical risk on income inequality: Evidence from a panel analysis. Social Indicators Research, 167(1), 47-66. Tian, N., Lopes da Silva, D., Béraud-Sudreau, L., Liang, X., Scarazzato, L., and Assis, A. (2023). Developments in Military Expenditure and the Effects of the War in Ukraine. Defence and Peace Economics, 34(5), 547-562.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
行政管理碩士學程
112921314
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112921314
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 翁永和zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Weng, Yung-Hoen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 張智賢zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chag, Chih-Hsienen_US
dc.creator (作者) 張智賢zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chag, Chih-Hsienen_US
dc.date (日期) 2024en_US
dc.date.accessioned 3-Mar-2025 13:25:35 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 3-Mar-2025 13:25:35 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 3-Mar-2025 13:25:35 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0112921314en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/155840-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 行政管理碩士學程zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 112921314zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 「國防支出與配置」是指國家在面臨多元安全挑戰與地緣政治風險時，針對國防資源進行分配與運用的策略性決策，其目的在於保障國家主權、維持國防能力及應對安全威脅，其中國防支出配置項目統一區分為，設備(裝備)、人員、基礎建設及其他等4類。本研究以北約國家為研究樣本，從地緣政治風險作為切入點，並加入人均GDP等7項其他因素，探討這些因素對國防支出及其配置模式的影響力。從實證迴歸結果發現，「地緣政治風險」對國防總支出占GDP比例、設備(裝備)及其他類國防支出占比有正向顯著影響，而對人員類占比具有負向顯著影響；「人均GDP」與「中央政府支出」均對國防總支出占GDP比例、設備(裝備)、基礎建設及其他類國防支出占比有正向顯著影響，人員類占比具有負向顯著影響；「經濟開放程度」對國防總支出占GDP比例及設備(裝備)類國防支出占比有負向顯著影響，人員及基礎建設類占比具有正向顯著影響；「城市化程度」對國防總支出占GDP比例、設備(裝備)及基礎建設類國防支出占比有負向顯著影響，人員類占比具有正向顯著影響；「政體(民主指數)」對國防總支出占GDP比例、設備(裝備)及基礎建設類國防支出占比有負向顯著影響，人員及其他類占比具有正向顯著影響。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) "Defense spending and allocation" refers to the strategic decisions a nation makes to distribute and utilize defense resources in response to security challenges and geopolitical risks. Its goal is to safeguard sovereignty, maintain defense capabilities, and address threats. Defense spending is divided into four categories: equipment (armament), personnel, infrastructure, and others. This study examines NATO countries, focusing on geopolitical risk and seven additional factors, including national income, to analyze their impact on defense spending and allocation. The regression results show that "geopolitical risk" positively influences total defense spending as a percentage of GDP, as well as spending on equipment and other categories, but negatively affects personnel spending. "National income" and "central government expenditure" positively affect total defense spending, as well as spending on equipment, infrastructure, and other categories, but negatively impact personnel spending. "Economic openness" negatively affects total defense spending and equipment spending but positively influences personnel and infrastructure spending. "Urbanization" negatively impacts total defense spending, equipment, and infrastructure but positively affects personnel spending. Finally, "political regime (democracy index)" negatively influences total defense spending, equipment, and infrastructure, while positively affecting personnel and other categories.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究目的 2 第三節 研究範圍與方法 3 第四節 研究架構 4 第二章 文獻探討 7 第一節 國防支出與配置的意涵與涵蓋項目 7 第二節 地緣政治風險之定義及意涵暨衡量指標 10 第三節 地緣政治風險對國防支出與配置之影響 14 第四節 其他影響國防支出配置之因素 19 第三章 樣本資料現況分析 27 第一節 北約國家國防支出與配置現況 27 第二節 地緣政治風險指數現況 32 第三節 地緣政治與國防支出與配置之關係 34 第四節 其他影響因素與國防支出與配置之關係 42 第四章 實證模型設定與變數說明 91 第一節 變數說明及預期影響方向 91 第二節 實證模型設定 98 第五章 實證模型結果 101 第一節 敘述性統計及共線性分析 101 第二節 實證結果分析 105 第六章 結論與建議 127 第一節 研究結論 127 第二節 後續研究建議 131 參考文獻 132 附錄 135zh_TW
dc.format.extent 5924894 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112921314en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 國防支出與配置zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 地緣政治風險zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Defense Spending and Allocationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Geopolitical Risken_US
dc.title (題名) 地緣政治對國防支出與配置之影響 - 以北約國家為例zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Impact of Geopolitics on Defense Spending and Allocation : A Case Study of NATO Countriesen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Becker, J., and Dunne, J. P. (2023). Military spending composition and economic growth. Defence and Peace Economics, 34(3), 259-271. Becker, J., and Malesky, E. (2017). The continent or the “grand large”? Strategic culture and operational burden-sharing in NATO. International studies quarterly, 61(1), 163-180. Becker, J., Benson, S., Dunne, J. P., and Malesky, E. J. (2022). Disaggregated Defense Spending: Introduction to Data and the Case for Systematic Use. SSRN. Bove, V., and Brauner, J. (2016). The demand for military expenditure in authoritarian regimes. Defence and peace economics, 27(5), 609-625. Brauner, J. (2015). Military spending and democracy. Defence and Peace Economics, 26(4), 409-423. Caldara, D., and Iacoviello, M. (2022). Measuring geopolitical risk. American Economic Review, 112(4), 1194-1225. Cameron, D. R. (1978). The expansion of the public economy: A comparative analysis. American political science review, 72(4), 1243-1261. Deger, S., and Smith, R. (1983). Military expenditure and growth in less developed countries. Journal of conflict resolution, 27(2), 335-353. Desta, L. (2009). Determinants of military expenditure: The case of the post-Cold War years. The University of Texas at Dallas. Dunne, J. P., and Mohammed, N. A. (1995). Military spending in sub-saharan africa: Some evidence for 1967-85. Journal of Peace research, 32(3), 331-343. Dunne, P., and Perlo-Freeman, S. (2003). The demand for military spending in developing countries. International Review of Applied Economics, 17(1), 23-48. Emmanouilidis, K., and Karpetis, C. (2022). Cross–country dependence, heterogeneity and the growth effects of military spending. Defence and Peace Economics, 33(7), 842-856. George, J., and Sandler, T. (2021). EU demand for defense, 1990–2019: A strategic spatial approach. Games, 12(1), 13. Gupta, S., De Mello, L., and Sharan, R. (2001). Corruption and military spending. European journal of political economy, 17(4), 749-777.Becker, J., and Dunne, J. P. (2023). Military spending composition and economic growth. Defence and Peace Economics, 34(3), 259-271. Khan, K., Su, C. W., and Rizvi, S. K. A. (2022). Guns and blood: A review of geopolitical risk and defence expenditures. Defence and Peace Economics, 33(1), 42-58. Kofroň, J., and Stauber, J. (2024). Spending on personnel or equipment: panel analysis of military expenditures in the NATO countries 2005–2019. European Security, 1-25. Maizels, A., and Nissanke, M. K. (1986). The determinants of military expenditures in developing countries. World Development, 14(9), 1125-1140. Murdoch, J. C., and Sandler, T. (1982). A theoretical and empirical analysis of NATO. Journal of conflict resolution, 26(2), 237-263. Nikolaidou, E. (2008). The demand for military expenditure: Evidence from the EU15 (1961–2005). Defence and Peace Economics, 19(4), 273-292. Rosh, R. M. (1988). Third world militarization: Security webs and the states they ensnare. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 32(4), 671-698. Sandler, T., and George, J. (2016). Military expenditure trends for 1960–2014 and what they reveal. Global Policy, 7(2), 174-184. Sipri. (2021). Sipri Yearbook 2021: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. Stone, J. C. (2005). Planning defence budget allocations for Canada's Strategy 2020. Defence and Peace Economics, 16(3), 223-246. Sweidan, O. D. (2023). Geopolitical risk and military expenditures: Evidence from the US economy. Russian Journal of Economics, 9(2), 201-218. Sweidan, O. D. (2023). The effect of geopolitical risk on income inequality: Evidence from a panel analysis. Social Indicators Research, 167(1), 47-66. Tian, N., Lopes da Silva, D., Béraud-Sudreau, L., Liang, X., Scarazzato, L., and Assis, A. (2023). Developments in Military Expenditure and the Effects of the War in Ukraine. Defence and Peace Economics, 34(5), 547-562.zh_TW