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| Title | 烏克蘭在兩強競爭下的安全策略抉擇 |
| Creator | 花文傑 Hua, Wen-Chieh |
| Contributor | 魏百谷 花文傑 Hua, Wen-Chieh |
| Key Words | 烏克蘭 國家安全 地緣政治 克里米亞危機 俄羅斯 歐盟 |
| Date | 2025 |
| Date Issued | 3-Mar-2025 13:27:32 (UTC+8) |
| Summary | 烏克蘭自1991年獨立以來，長期處於歐盟與俄羅斯兩大勢力競爭的交匯點，導致其安全策略在親歐與親俄之間反覆擺盪。由於內部民族組成的多元性、歷史因素與區域文化差異，烏克蘭的國家認同始終無法形成共識，進一步影響了其對外政策選擇。另一方面，俄羅斯與歐盟對烏克蘭的政治、經濟與軍事影響，使其在地緣政治競爭中陷入被動局面。 本文從內部與外部兩大因素切入，探討烏克蘭安全策略的演變。內部因素包括烏克蘭的民族組成、政治菁英的決策、國家認同的分裂等；外部因素則涵蓋俄羅斯與歐盟對烏克蘭的影響，特別是地緣政治的角力、貿易與能源依賴關係。本文以2014年克里米亞危機為關鍵節點，分析危機對烏克蘭安全策略的影響，以及烏克蘭在面對俄羅斯威脅下的因應方式。 研究發現，烏克蘭的安全策略主要受到國內政治變遷與外部強權競爭的雙重影響。橙色革命（2004）與廣場革命（2014）推動烏克蘭向西方靠攏，但俄羅斯則以經濟施壓、軍事介入等方式干預，導致烏克蘭內部分裂加劇，最終爆發克里米亞危機與東烏戰爭。隨著俄羅斯對烏克蘭的敵對行動升級，烏克蘭開始深化與歐盟及北約的合作，並逐步降低對俄羅斯的經濟依賴。然而，由於內部分歧與外部壓力並存，烏克蘭的國家安全戰略仍面臨極大的不確定性。 本研究可為中小型國家在強權競爭下的安全戰略選擇提供借鑑，特別是在面對地緣政治壓力時，如何在經濟、軍事與外交上尋求平衡，以維護國家主權與安全。 |
| 參考文獻 | 一、 中文部分 1. 書籍 吳玉山、楊三億（2019），〈兩強間中小國家的抉擇: 一個理論的視角〉，《左右逢源還是 左右為難？中小型國家在兩強間的抉擇》，頁1-4。台中市：奇果創新國際。 張紹勳（2007）《研究方法》。台中市：滄海。 2. 論文期刊 吳玉山，〈抗衡與扈從:面對強臨時的策略抉擇(上)〉，《問題與研究》36卷2期 （1997），頁25-27。 況正吉，〈後蘇聯國家對外經貿關係選擇的研究: 以烏克蘭為例〉，《政治科學論 叢》（2020），頁41-45。 施正鋒，〈國際政治中的小國〉，《台灣國際研究季刊》第13卷第4期（2017）， 頁22-24。 紀舜傑，〈烏克蘭的國家認同-民族、民主與地緣政治之作用〉，《台灣國際研究季 刊》第11卷第3期（2015），頁161-168。 楊三億，〈烏克蘭危機與美歐俄戰略格局〉，《全球政治評論》46 (2014) 頁11-16。 楊三億，〈烏克蘭安全策略選擇：內部因素分析〉，《問題與研究》57卷1期（2018）， 頁27-29。 楊三億，〈中小型國家的安全策略及路徑演變: 以塞爾維亞、亞美尼亞與烏克蘭 為例〉，《政治科學論叢》第78期（2018），頁120-128。 謝國斌，〈烏克蘭的族群政治〉，《台灣國際研究季刊》第11卷第3期 (2015) ，頁129-153。 3. 網路資源 顧力仁，〈國家教育研究院〉，《雙語詞彙、學術名詞暨辭書資訊網》（2012年）， 擷取自 https://terms.naer.edu.tw/detail/1678683/，檢索日期： 2023-03-20。 二、 英文部分 1. 書籍 Arakelyan, Lilia A. EU-Russia Security Relations: Another Kind of Europe. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2017. Kuchma, L. D. Ukraine Is Not Russia. Translated by Tania Kantziou. Athens: Livanis Publishing Organization, 2013. Magocsi, Paul R. A History of Ukraine. Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2010. McFaul, Michael, and Anders Åslund. Revolution in Orange: The Origins of Ukraine’s Democratic Breakthrough. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2006. Plokhy, Serhii. The Gates of Europe: A History of Ukraine. New York: Basic Books, 2015. Waltz, Kenneth N. Theory of International Politics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979. Wolczuk, Kataryna. Ukraine’s Foreign and Security Policy, 1991–2000. London and New York: Routledge, 2003. Yekelchyk, Serhy. The Ukraine Conflict: What Everyone Needs to Know. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015. 2. 論文期刊 Åtland, Kristian. "War, Diplomacy, and More War: Why Did the Minsk Agreements Fail?" International Politics,(2024): 1–21. Blasco, Natividad, Luis Casas, and Sandra Ferreruela. "Does War Spread the Herding Effect in Stock Markets? Evidence from Emerging and Developed Markets during the Russia-Ukraine War." Finance Research Letters (2024) : 61-75. Čeněk, J., M. Čejka, V. Đorđević, M. Hrabálek, P. Mlejnková, and O. Mocek. "A Representative Dataset on Czech and Slovak Pre-Russia-Ukraine-War Attitudes to the West and to the Russian Federation." Data in Brief 52 (2023): 10-16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2023.109871.檢索日 期：2024-08-19。 Dragneva, Rilka, and J. de Kort. "Legal Regime for Free Trade in the CIS." International and Comparative Law Quarterly , no. 2 (2007): 678– 698. Dragneva, R., and K. Wolczuk. "Between Dependence and Integration: Ukraine’s Relations With Russia." Europe-Asia Studies , no. 4 (2016): 678–698. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2016.1173200. 檢索日期：2024-08-19。 Ferreruela, Sandra, Luis Casas, and Natividad Blasco. "Does War Spread the Herding Effect in Stock Markets? Evidence from Emerging and Developed Markets during the Russia-Ukraine War." Finance Research Letters (2024) : 78–85. Ganesan, Shankar, and Girish Mallapragada. "Navigating Geopolitical Turmoil: Corporate Responses to the War in Ukraine and Its Impact on Consumer Mindset." Journal of Public Policy & Marketing, no. 1 (2025): 122–139. Gerard, Roland. "The War in Ukraine and Its Consequences for the International Order and North East Asia." Asia and the Global (2023) :93–100. German, Tracey. "Russia’s War on Ukraine, the EU, and Its Eastern Neighborhood: Layers of Liminality." Problems of Post-Communism, no. 3 (2024): 259–270. Hartwell, C. A. "Title of the Article." Business Horizons, no. 4 (July 2013): 416-422. Ivanov, A. "Analysis of Industrial Development Differences in Ukrainian Regions (2000–2010)." Ukrainian Economic Journal, no. 2 (2012): 120–135. Ivanov, V. "Exploration of the Diversity and Complexity of Ukrainian National Culture." Journal of Slavic Studies, no. 2 (2015): 110– 125. Kakhishvili, Levan, and Alina Felder. "The Russian Invasion of Ukraine and Changes in MEPs’ Conceptions of Security." International Politics, prepublish (2024): 1–13. Kipnis, Eva, Nataliia Pysarenko, Cristina Galalae, Carlo Mari, Verónica Martín Ruiz, and Lizette Vorster. "The Role of War-Related Marketing Activism Actions in Community Resilience: From the Ground in Ukraine." Journal of Public Policy & Marketing , no. 1 (2025): 61– 80. Kornher, L., T. Balezentis, and F. G. Santeramo. "EU Food Price Inflation amid Global Market Turbulences during the COVID‐19 Pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine War." Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy , no. 4 (2024): 573–584. Kuchukhidze, Giorgi, Machiko Otani, Stela Bivol, and Teymur Noori. "Refugees from Ukraine Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy in Destination Countries and Territories of the World Health Organization European Region, Including EU/EEA Countries, February 2022 to March 2023." Euro Surveillance: Bulletin Européen sur les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin 24 (2024) : 58-61. Kuznetsova, E. "Analysis of the Uneven Development and Social Differences in Ukrainian Regions (2005–2015)." Social Science Research in Ukraine , no. 3 (2016): 45–60. Labenko, Oleksandr, Andrjus Sadauskis, and Valeriia Lymar. "The Efficiency of Financing Environmental Protection Measures in the Context of Ukraine’s Future Membership in the EU." Sustainability , no. 14 (2024): 609-612. Lingevičius, Justinas. "Identity Discourse within a Geopolitical Crisis: The Case of Lithuania." Politikon: The IAPSS Journal of Political Science (2020): 26–43. https://doi.org/10.22151/politikon.44.2. 檢索日期：2024-08-16。 Münchau, Wolfgang. "Lateral View: The EU’s Failures over Ukraine Have Damaged Its Reputation in Eastern Europe." New Statesman, no. 5786 (2024): 33-38. Petrov, S. "The Evolution of Ukraine's Industrial Structure and Its Influencing Factors." European Journal of Economics and Business Studies , no. 1 (2008): 45–58. Rabinovych, Maryna. "EU Enlargement Policy Goes East: Historical and Comparative Takes on the EU’s Rule of Law Conditionality vis-à-vis Ukraine." Hague Journal on the Rule of Law , no. 3 (2024): 715–737. Simentić Popović, Janja, and Goran Sandić. "Temporary Protection of Persons Displaced from Ukraine: Between International Protection and Migration Management in the EU." Političke Perspektive: Časopis za Istraživanje Politike , no. 1 (2024): 65–84. Sokolov, A. "Research on the Economic Structure of Ukrainian Regions (2000–2015)." Ukrainian Economics Quarterly , no. 1 (2018): 75– 90. Tomej, Kristof, and Iana Bilynets. "Large-Scale Tourism Transformations through Regeneration: A Living Systems Perspective on Tourism Developments in Ukraine during the War." Annals of Tourism Research (2024) : 12–21. Yan, Shaohua, Yao Xu, and Bin Ma. "Chinese Transnational Corporations in the Ukraine Crisis: Risk Perception and Mitigation." Transnational Corporations Review , no. 4 (2022): 371–381. Zieliński, Marek, Artur Łopatka, Piotr Koza, and Barbara Gołębiewska. "The Carpathian Agriculture in Poland in Relation to Other EU Countries, Ukraine and the Environmental Goals of the EU CAP 2023– 2027." Agriculture 14, no. 8 (2024): 13-25. 3. 網路資源 Guterres, António. "Secretary-General’s Remarks to the Security Council Debate on ‘Upholding the Purposes and Principles of the UN Charter through Effective Multilateralism: Maintenance of Peace and Security of Ukraine.’" United Nations, September 20, 2023. https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2023-09-20/secretary-generals-remarks-the-security-council-debate-upholding-the-purposes-and-principles-of-the-un-charter-through-effective-multilateralism-maintenance-of-peace. 檢索日期：2024-12-01。 Nikkei Asia. 中俄簽署4000億美元天然氣供應協議 https://zh.cn.nikkei.com/industry/ienvironment/9388-20140522.html.檢索日期：2025-02-22。 Ukrainian State Statistics Service. Ukrainian Census 2001. https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/.檢索日期：2021-05-12。 United Nations General Assembly. Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 27 March 2014 (A/RES/68/262). https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/767883. 檢索日期：2025-02-22。 |
| Description | 碩士 國立政治大學 國家安全與大陸研究碩士在職專班 109981004 |
| 資料來源 | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109981004 |
| Type | thesis |
| dc.contributor.advisor | 魏百谷 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 花文傑 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | Hua, Wen-Chieh | en_US |
| dc.creator (作者) | 花文傑 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | Hua, Wen-Chieh | en_US |
| dc.date (日期) | 2025 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 3-Mar-2025 13:27:32 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 3-Mar-2025 13:27:32 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 3-Mar-2025 13:27:32 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | G0109981004 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/155846 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國家安全與大陸研究碩士在職專班 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 109981004 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 烏克蘭自1991年獨立以來，長期處於歐盟與俄羅斯兩大勢力競爭的交匯點，導致其安全策略在親歐與親俄之間反覆擺盪。由於內部民族組成的多元性、歷史因素與區域文化差異，烏克蘭的國家認同始終無法形成共識，進一步影響了其對外政策選擇。另一方面，俄羅斯與歐盟對烏克蘭的政治、經濟與軍事影響，使其在地緣政治競爭中陷入被動局面。 本文從內部與外部兩大因素切入，探討烏克蘭安全策略的演變。內部因素包括烏克蘭的民族組成、政治菁英的決策、國家認同的分裂等；外部因素則涵蓋俄羅斯與歐盟對烏克蘭的影響，特別是地緣政治的角力、貿易與能源依賴關係。本文以2014年克里米亞危機為關鍵節點，分析危機對烏克蘭安全策略的影響，以及烏克蘭在面對俄羅斯威脅下的因應方式。 研究發現，烏克蘭的安全策略主要受到國內政治變遷與外部強權競爭的雙重影響。橙色革命（2004）與廣場革命（2014）推動烏克蘭向西方靠攏，但俄羅斯則以經濟施壓、軍事介入等方式干預，導致烏克蘭內部分裂加劇，最終爆發克里米亞危機與東烏戰爭。隨著俄羅斯對烏克蘭的敵對行動升級，烏克蘭開始深化與歐盟及北約的合作，並逐步降低對俄羅斯的經濟依賴。然而，由於內部分歧與外部壓力並存，烏克蘭的國家安全戰略仍面臨極大的不確定性。 本研究可為中小型國家在強權競爭下的安全戰略選擇提供借鑑，特別是在面對地緣政治壓力時，如何在經濟、軍事與外交上尋求平衡，以維護國家主權與安全。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 第壹章、 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 文獻回顧 4 第三節 研究方法與途徑 7 第四節 研究範圍及限制 9 第五節 研究架構及章節安排 10 第貳章、 內部因素對烏克蘭安全策略的影響 14 第一節 烏克蘭的民族組成 14 第二節 烏克蘭領導人因素 25 第三節 國家認同的分歧 31 第四節 小結 34 第參章、 外部因素對烏克蘭安全的影響 37 第一節 地緣政治如何影響烏克蘭 37 第二節 烏克蘭與俄羅斯之政經關係 42 第三節 烏克蘭與歐盟之政經關係 53 第四節 小結 57 第肆章、 2014年克里米亞危機 61 第一節 危機爆發的過程 61 第二節 主要國家對克里米亞危機之態度與影響 65 第三節 烏克蘭及周邊國家的回應 71 第四節 小結 74 第伍章、 結論 78 第一節 研究發現 78 第二節 後續研究建議 84 參考文獻 88 | zh_TW |
| dc.format.extent | 1638225 bytes | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109981004 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 烏克蘭 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 國家安全 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 地緣政治 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 克里米亞危機 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 俄羅斯 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 歐盟 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | 烏克蘭在兩強競爭下的安全策略抉擇 | zh_TW |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en_US |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 一、 中文部分 1. 書籍 吳玉山、楊三億（2019），〈兩強間中小國家的抉擇: 一個理論的視角〉，《左右逢源還是 左右為難？中小型國家在兩強間的抉擇》，頁1-4。台中市：奇果創新國際。 張紹勳（2007）《研究方法》。台中市：滄海。 2. 論文期刊 吳玉山，〈抗衡與扈從:面對強臨時的策略抉擇(上)〉，《問題與研究》36卷2期 （1997），頁25-27。 況正吉，〈後蘇聯國家對外經貿關係選擇的研究: 以烏克蘭為例〉，《政治科學論 叢》（2020），頁41-45。 施正鋒，〈國際政治中的小國〉，《台灣國際研究季刊》第13卷第4期（2017）， 頁22-24。 紀舜傑，〈烏克蘭的國家認同-民族、民主與地緣政治之作用〉，《台灣國際研究季 刊》第11卷第3期（2015），頁161-168。 楊三億，〈烏克蘭危機與美歐俄戰略格局〉，《全球政治評論》46 (2014) 頁11-16。 楊三億，〈烏克蘭安全策略選擇：內部因素分析〉，《問題與研究》57卷1期（2018）， 頁27-29。 楊三億，〈中小型國家的安全策略及路徑演變: 以塞爾維亞、亞美尼亞與烏克蘭 為例〉，《政治科學論叢》第78期（2018），頁120-128。 謝國斌，〈烏克蘭的族群政治〉，《台灣國際研究季刊》第11卷第3期 (2015) ，頁129-153。 3. 網路資源 顧力仁，〈國家教育研究院〉，《雙語詞彙、學術名詞暨辭書資訊網》（2012年）， 擷取自 https://terms.naer.edu.tw/detail/1678683/，檢索日期： 2023-03-20。 二、 英文部分 1. 書籍 Arakelyan, Lilia A. EU-Russia Security Relations: Another Kind of Europe. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2017. Kuchma, L. D. Ukraine Is Not Russia. Translated by Tania Kantziou. Athens: Livanis Publishing Organization, 2013. Magocsi, Paul R. A History of Ukraine. Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2010. McFaul, Michael, and Anders Åslund. Revolution in Orange: The Origins of Ukraine’s Democratic Breakthrough. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2006. Plokhy, Serhii. The Gates of Europe: A History of Ukraine. New York: Basic Books, 2015. Waltz, Kenneth N. Theory of International Politics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979. Wolczuk, Kataryna. Ukraine’s Foreign and Security Policy, 1991–2000. London and New York: Routledge, 2003. Yekelchyk, Serhy. The Ukraine Conflict: What Everyone Needs to Know. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015. 2. 論文期刊 Åtland, Kristian. "War, Diplomacy, and More War: Why Did the Minsk Agreements Fail?" International Politics,(2024): 1–21. Blasco, Natividad, Luis Casas, and Sandra Ferreruela. "Does War Spread the Herding Effect in Stock Markets? Evidence from Emerging and Developed Markets during the Russia-Ukraine War." Finance Research Letters (2024) : 61-75. Čeněk, J., M. Čejka, V. Đorđević, M. Hrabálek, P. Mlejnková, and O. Mocek. "A Representative Dataset on Czech and Slovak Pre-Russia-Ukraine-War Attitudes to the West and to the Russian Federation." Data in Brief 52 (2023): 10-16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2023.109871.檢索日 期：2024-08-19。 Dragneva, Rilka, and J. de Kort. "Legal Regime for Free Trade in the CIS." International and Comparative Law Quarterly , no. 2 (2007): 678– 698. Dragneva, R., and K. Wolczuk. "Between Dependence and Integration: Ukraine’s Relations With Russia." Europe-Asia Studies , no. 4 (2016): 678–698. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2016.1173200. 檢索日期：2024-08-19。 Ferreruela, Sandra, Luis Casas, and Natividad Blasco. "Does War Spread the Herding Effect in Stock Markets? Evidence from Emerging and Developed Markets during the Russia-Ukraine War." Finance Research Letters (2024) : 78–85. Ganesan, Shankar, and Girish Mallapragada. "Navigating Geopolitical Turmoil: Corporate Responses to the War in Ukraine and Its Impact on Consumer Mindset." 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