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題名 探討台日半導體供應鏈互補性： 以矽晶圓與積體電路貿易動態為例
Exploring the Complementarity of the Taiwan-Japan Semiconductor Supply Chain: Evidence from Trade Dynamics of Silicon Wafers and Integrated Circuits作者 林瑜靜
Lin, Yu-Ching貢獻者 吳文傑<br>周德宇
Wu, Wen-Chieh<br>Chou, Te-Yu
林瑜靜
Lin, Yu-Ching關鍵詞 半導體供應鏈
互補性
矽晶圓
積體電路
COVID-19
Semiconductor Supply Chain
Complementarity
Silicon Wafers
Integrated Circuits
COVID-19日期 2025 上傳時間 1-Jul-2025 14:20:02 (UTC+8) 摘要 隨著半導體技術的快速發展及全球市場的劇烈變動，台日兩國在此產業中扮演著關鍵角色。台灣在積體電路（IC）製造、封裝與測試領域擁有強大的技術與產能，而日本則在矽晶圓、半導體設備及關鍵材料方面具有顯著優勢。兩國的產業結構展現出高度的互補性，形成合作雙贏的基礎。本研究旨在探討台灣與日本半導體供應鏈之互補性，並分析矽晶圓與積體電路貿易動態之變化特徵。 本文以2014年至2024年之台日貿易資料為基礎，分別建立兩組計量模型，探究台灣自日本進口矽晶圓之影響因素及其進口週期變動，以及汽車產業需求間對日本自台灣進口積體電路之推動關係。研究方法採用廣義最小平方法（GLS）進行實證估計，並納入匯率、GDP、疫情虛擬變數與多國來源變數，以提升模型解釋力。 實證結果顯示，台灣電子產品外銷訂單對矽晶圓進口呈正向且具滯後反應，最佳反應週期為7個月。匯率變動亦對進口行為產生負向影響，而來源國矽晶圓進口則與日本來源進口呈現互補關係。另在積體電路進口模型方面，日本汽車出口與內銷需求分別對3個月以及2個月以前的積體電路進口具顯著推動效果，韓國與中國來源之IC進口亦與台灣形成同步拉貨之互補關係。 綜合分析結果，台日半導體供應鏈呈現高度互補性，且企業在面對全球供應鏈中斷風險時，已採取多元化來源與延長備料期的調整策略。本研究結果可提供政策制定者及業界於規劃供應鏈韌性策略與強化台日合作關係時之重要參考。
With the rapid advancement of semiconductor technology and dramatic changes in the global market, Taiwan and Japan have each played critical roles in this industry. Taiwan possesses strong technical capabilities and production capacity in the fields of integrated circuit (IC) manufacturing, packaging, and testing, while Japan holds a significant advantage in silicon wafers, semiconductor equipment, and key materials. The industrial structures of the two countries exhibit a high degree of complementarity, forming a solid foundation for mutually beneficial cooperation. This study aims to explore the complementarity between Taiwan and Japan in the semiconductor supply chain and analyze the changing characteristics of trade dynamics in silicon wafers and integrated circuits. Based on trade data from 2014 to 2024, two econometric models are constructed: The first model investigates the factors influencing Taiwan's imports of silicon wafers from Japan and the changes in import cycles over time. The second model examines the relationship between demand from the automotive industry and Japan's imports of integrated circuits from Taiwan. The empirical analysis is conducted using the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) method. Key variables, including exchange rates, GDP, a COVID-19 dummy variable, and country-of-origin indicators, are incorporated to enhance the explanatory power of the models. The empirical results show that Taiwan’s export orders for electronic products have a positive and lagged effect on silicon wafer imports, with the optimal response period identified as seven months. Exchange rate fluctuations exhibit a negative impact on import behavior, while silicon wafer imports from other source countries appear to have a complementary relationship with those from Japan. In the integrated circuit import model, Japan’s automobile exports and domestic sales have significant positive effects on IC imports from Taiwan, with lead times of approximately three and two months, respectively. Moreover, IC imports from Korea and China demonstrate synchronized procurement patterns with those from Taiwan, suggesting a complementary “parallel sourcing” relationship. Overall, the findings suggest a strong complementarity in the Taiwan-Japan semiconductor supply chain. Enterprises have responded to global supply chain disruption risks by diversifying sources and extending procurement cycles. The results of this study provide valuable references for policymakers and industry stakeholders in planning supply chain resilience strategies and strengthening Taiwan-Japan industrial cooperation.參考文獻 中文文獻 [1] 吳昆儒（2014）。半導體產業晶圓製造專業化的起源（碩士論文）。國立中央大學產業經濟研究所。 [2] 張育誌（2019）。臺灣半導體進出口研究：以海關進口稅則8542節實證分析（碩士論文）。國立政治大學行政管理碩士學程。 [3] 彭茂榮（2024）。2024年半導體產業發展暨關鍵議題。財團法人資訊工業策進會產業情報研究所（MIC）。 [4] 林佳宜（2022）。新冠疫情下半導體產業趨勢觀察。國防安全研究院。 [5] 廖明萱（2024）。地緣政治及政策助日本半導體復興 然機會與挑戰共存 [簡報]。DIGITIMES Research。 [6] 工業技術研究院產業科技國際策略發展所（2024）。2024半導體產業年鑑。工業技術研究院。 英文文獻 [1] Ahmetbegović, A. (2022). Semiconductor supply chain disruptions – Its effect on automotive industry: China and U.S. Journal of Business and Social Science Review, 3(9), 35–74. [2] Akamatsu, K. (1962). A theory of unbalanced growth in the world economy. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 90(2), 196–217. [3] Andersen, L., & Babula, R. (2008). The link between openness and long-run economic growth. Journal of International Commerce and Economics, 2(1), 1–20. [4] Athukorala, P.-C., & Yamashita, N. (2006). Product fragmentation and trade patterns in East Asia. Asian Economic Papers, 4(3), 1–27 [5] Bauer, H., Burkacky, O., Kenevan, P., Mahindroo, A., & Patel, M. (2020). Coronavirus: Implications for the semiconductor industry. McKinsey & Company. [6] Campa, J. M., & Goldberg, L. S. (2005). Exchange rate pass-through into import prices. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(4), 679–690. [7] Frieske, B., & Stieler, S. (2022). The “semiconductor crisis” as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and impacts on the automotive industry and its supply chains. World Electric Vehicle Journal, 13(1), 189. [8] Gereffi, G., Humphrey, J., & Sturgeon, T. (2005). The governance of global value chains. Review of International Political Economy, 12(1), 78–104. [9] Goldberg, P. K., & Knetter, M. M. (1997). Goods prices and exchange rates: What have we learned? Journal of Economic Literature, 35(3), 1243–1272. [10] Gries, T., & Redlin, M. (2012). Trade openness and economic growth: A panel causality analysis. Journal of Global Economy, 8(1), 1–23. [11] IC Insights. (2020). Global wafer capacity 2020–2024. IC Insights, Inc. [12] Michelis, L., & Zestos, G. K. (2004). Exports, imports and GDP growth: Causal relations in six European Union countries. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 1(2), 71–85. [13] Nguyen, T. M., & Lien, N. T. K. (2020). The impact of real effective exchange rate volatility on trade balance in Vietnam. Accounting, 6(5), 1167–1172. [14] Schmitt, C., Imhof, N., & Nechmad, T. (2019). Analyzing the relationship between trade and economic growth [Unpublished manuscript]. ECON 3161: Econometric Analysis, Georgia Institute of Technology. [15] Viner, J. (1950). The customs union issue. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. [16] Yeung, H. W.-C. (2022). Interconnected worlds: Global electronics and production networks in East Asia. Stanford University Press. [17] Yu, M. (2010). Does appreciation of the RMB decrease imports to the U.S. from China? Contemporary Economic Policy, 11(4), 385–396. [18] Zestos, G. K., & Tao, X. (2002). Trade and GDP growth: Causal relations in the United States and Canada. Southern Economic Journal, 68(4), 859–874. [19] Zhang, Y. (2023). The economic impact of COVID-19 on the auto industry. In V. Gaikar, A. Joshi, P. Kumar, & A. Vyas (Eds.), Proceedings of the International Conference on Future of Management and Engineering Technology (FMET 2022), AEBMR 227 (pp. 123–129). Springer. 網路資源 [1] 台灣積體電路製造股份有限公司（2024）。2023年年報。取自 https://investor.tsmc.com/chinese/annual-reports [2] 台灣半導體產業協會（TSIA）。（2025）。2024年第四季暨全年台灣IC產業營運成果新聞稿。取自 https://www.tsia.org.tw [3] 富果研究部（2024）。【產業分析】日本「半導體與數位產業戰略」究竟會如何影響台日半導體業未來的發展？（二）。取自 https://blog.fugle.tw/2024-japansemi-report2 [4] 經濟部產業技術司（2023）。由日本半導體設備產業布局趨勢，初探臺日未來合作方。取自 https://www.moea.gov.tw/MNS/doit/industrytech/IndustryTech.aspx?menu_id=13545&it_id=546 [5] 經濟部產業技術司（2023）。日本半導體設備市場現況及布局。取自 https://www.moea.gov.tw/mns/doit/industrytech/IndustryTech.aspx?menu_id=13545&it_id=513 [6] Burkacky, O., Lingemann, S., & Pototzky, K. (2021). Semiconductor shortage: How the automotive industry can succeed. McKinsey & Company. Retrieved from https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/semiconductors/our-insights/semiconductor-shortage-how-the-automotive-industry-can-succeed [7] KPMG. (2022). Growth in automotive semiconductors outpace expectations. Retrieved from https://kpmg.com/us/en/articles/2022/growth-automotive-semiconductors.html [8] Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. (n.d.). IR Results. Retrieved from https://www.shinetsu.co.jp/en/ir/ir-data/ir-results/ [9] SUMCO Corporation. (n.d.). IR Library: Financial reports and data list. Retrieved from https://www.sumcosi.com/english/ir/library/datalist.html 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
112255010資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112255010 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 吳文傑<br>周德宇 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Wu, Wen-Chieh<br>Chou, Te-Yu en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林瑜靜 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lin, Yu-Ching en_US dc.creator (作者) 林瑜靜 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Lin, Yu-Ching en_US dc.date (日期) 2025 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Jul-2025 14:20:02 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Jul-2025 14:20:02 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Jul-2025 14:20:02 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0112255010 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/157682 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 112255010 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 隨著半導體技術的快速發展及全球市場的劇烈變動，台日兩國在此產業中扮演著關鍵角色。台灣在積體電路（IC）製造、封裝與測試領域擁有強大的技術與產能，而日本則在矽晶圓、半導體設備及關鍵材料方面具有顯著優勢。兩國的產業結構展現出高度的互補性，形成合作雙贏的基礎。本研究旨在探討台灣與日本半導體供應鏈之互補性，並分析矽晶圓與積體電路貿易動態之變化特徵。 本文以2014年至2024年之台日貿易資料為基礎，分別建立兩組計量模型，探究台灣自日本進口矽晶圓之影響因素及其進口週期變動，以及汽車產業需求間對日本自台灣進口積體電路之推動關係。研究方法採用廣義最小平方法（GLS）進行實證估計，並納入匯率、GDP、疫情虛擬變數與多國來源變數，以提升模型解釋力。 實證結果顯示，台灣電子產品外銷訂單對矽晶圓進口呈正向且具滯後反應，最佳反應週期為7個月。匯率變動亦對進口行為產生負向影響，而來源國矽晶圓進口則與日本來源進口呈現互補關係。另在積體電路進口模型方面，日本汽車出口與內銷需求分別對3個月以及2個月以前的積體電路進口具顯著推動效果，韓國與中國來源之IC進口亦與台灣形成同步拉貨之互補關係。 綜合分析結果，台日半導體供應鏈呈現高度互補性，且企業在面對全球供應鏈中斷風險時，已採取多元化來源與延長備料期的調整策略。本研究結果可提供政策制定者及業界於規劃供應鏈韌性策略與強化台日合作關係時之重要參考。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) With the rapid advancement of semiconductor technology and dramatic changes in the global market, Taiwan and Japan have each played critical roles in this industry. Taiwan possesses strong technical capabilities and production capacity in the fields of integrated circuit (IC) manufacturing, packaging, and testing, while Japan holds a significant advantage in silicon wafers, semiconductor equipment, and key materials. The industrial structures of the two countries exhibit a high degree of complementarity, forming a solid foundation for mutually beneficial cooperation. This study aims to explore the complementarity between Taiwan and Japan in the semiconductor supply chain and analyze the changing characteristics of trade dynamics in silicon wafers and integrated circuits. Based on trade data from 2014 to 2024, two econometric models are constructed: The first model investigates the factors influencing Taiwan's imports of silicon wafers from Japan and the changes in import cycles over time. The second model examines the relationship between demand from the automotive industry and Japan's imports of integrated circuits from Taiwan. The empirical analysis is conducted using the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) method. Key variables, including exchange rates, GDP, a COVID-19 dummy variable, and country-of-origin indicators, are incorporated to enhance the explanatory power of the models. The empirical results show that Taiwan’s export orders for electronic products have a positive and lagged effect on silicon wafer imports, with the optimal response period identified as seven months. Exchange rate fluctuations exhibit a negative impact on import behavior, while silicon wafer imports from other source countries appear to have a complementary relationship with those from Japan. In the integrated circuit import model, Japan’s automobile exports and domestic sales have significant positive effects on IC imports from Taiwan, with lead times of approximately three and two months, respectively. Moreover, IC imports from Korea and China demonstrate synchronized procurement patterns with those from Taiwan, suggesting a complementary “parallel sourcing” relationship. Overall, the findings suggest a strong complementarity in the Taiwan-Japan semiconductor supply chain. Enterprises have responded to global supply chain disruption risks by diversifying sources and extending procurement cycles. The results of this study provide valuable references for policymakers and industry stakeholders in planning supply chain resilience strategies and strengthening Taiwan-Japan industrial cooperation. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 研究方法與範圍 4 第三節 研究限制 5 第四節 研究架構 7 第二章 文獻回顧 8 第一節 半導體產業相關研究 8 一、 半導體產業鏈發展與國際分工模式研究 8 二、 台灣與日本半導體產業互補性的相關研究 9 三、 COVID-19疫情對半導體產業影響的相關研究 10 第二節 進出口貿易相關研究 11 一、 國內生產毛額(GDP)對進出口之影響 11 二、 匯率對進出口貿易的影響 12 三、 生產相同產品國家間的替代與互補關係 13 第三章 半導體產業與進出口現況分析 15 第一節 半導體產業概況 15 一、 全球半導體發展趨勢 15 二、 台灣半導體產業現況 17 三、 日本半導體產業現況 19 四、 疫情對全球半導體供應鏈的影響 21 第二節 國際商品統一分類代碼（HS Code） 22 第三節 HS Code 第3818節分析 25 一、 HS Code第3818節貨品介紹 25 二、 台灣矽晶圓進口額分析 26 三、 台灣進口矽晶圓規格分析 28 第四節 HS Code 第8542節分析 35 一、 HS Code第8542節貨品介紹 35 二、 台灣積體電路出口額分析 36 三、 日本積體電路進口額分析 39 四、 日本汽車產業vs台灣積體電路 42 第四章 研究模型與變數 45 第一節 假說建立 45 第二節 實證模型建立 48 一、 廣義最小平方法（Generalized Least Squares, GLS） 49 二、 模型一：台灣自日本進口矽晶圓之決定因素 49 三、 模型二：日本自台灣進口積體電路之決定因素 51 四、 變數設定 53 第五章 實證結果分析 58 第一節 資料範圍與來源 58 一、 資料範圍 58 二、 時間範圍 58 三、 資料來源 58 第二節 敘述性統計 60 第三節 單根檢定 63 第四節 最佳滯後期設定與選擇 67 第五節 相關係數矩陣 69 第六節 迴歸結果分析 71 一、 模型一迴歸結果 71 二、 模型二迴歸結果 80 第六章 研究結論與建議 91 第一節 研究發現總結 91 第二節 政策建議 92 第三節 未來研究方向 93 參考文獻 96 第一節 中文文獻 96 第二節 英文文獻 97 第三節 網路資源 99 zh_TW dc.format.extent 3731903 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112255010 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 半導體供應鏈 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 互補性 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 矽晶圓 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 積體電路 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) COVID-19 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Semiconductor Supply Chain en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Complementarity en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Silicon Wafers en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Integrated Circuits en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) COVID-19 en_US dc.title (題名) 探討台日半導體供應鏈互補性： 以矽晶圓與積體電路貿易動態為例 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Exploring the Complementarity of the Taiwan-Japan Semiconductor Supply Chain: Evidence from Trade Dynamics of Silicon Wafers and Integrated Circuits en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文文獻 [1] 吳昆儒（2014）。半導體產業晶圓製造專業化的起源（碩士論文）。國立中央大學產業經濟研究所。 [2] 張育誌（2019）。臺灣半導體進出口研究：以海關進口稅則8542節實證分析（碩士論文）。國立政治大學行政管理碩士學程。 [3] 彭茂榮（2024）。2024年半導體產業發展暨關鍵議題。財團法人資訊工業策進會產業情報研究所（MIC）。 [4] 林佳宜（2022）。新冠疫情下半導體產業趨勢觀察。國防安全研究院。 [5] 廖明萱（2024）。地緣政治及政策助日本半導體復興 然機會與挑戰共存 [簡報]。DIGITIMES Research。 [6] 工業技術研究院產業科技國際策略發展所（2024）。2024半導體產業年鑑。工業技術研究院。 英文文獻 [1] Ahmetbegović, A. (2022). Semiconductor supply chain disruptions – Its effect on automotive industry: China and U.S. Journal of Business and Social Science Review, 3(9), 35–74. [2] Akamatsu, K. (1962). A theory of unbalanced growth in the world economy. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 90(2), 196–217. [3] Andersen, L., & Babula, R. (2008). The link between openness and long-run economic growth. Journal of International Commerce and Economics, 2(1), 1–20. [4] Athukorala, P.-C., & Yamashita, N. (2006). Product fragmentation and trade patterns in East Asia. Asian Economic Papers, 4(3), 1–27 [5] Bauer, H., Burkacky, O., Kenevan, P., Mahindroo, A., & Patel, M. (2020). Coronavirus: Implications for the semiconductor industry. McKinsey & Company. [6] Campa, J. M., & Goldberg, L. S. (2005). Exchange rate pass-through into import prices. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(4), 679–690. [7] Frieske, B., & Stieler, S. (2022). The “semiconductor crisis” as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and impacts on the automotive industry and its supply chains. World Electric Vehicle Journal, 13(1), 189. [8] Gereffi, G., Humphrey, J., & Sturgeon, T. (2005). The governance of global value chains. Review of International Political Economy, 12(1), 78–104. [9] Goldberg, P. K., & Knetter, M. M. (1997). Goods prices and exchange rates: What have we learned? Journal of Economic Literature, 35(3), 1243–1272. [10] Gries, T., & Redlin, M. (2012). Trade openness and economic growth: A panel causality analysis. Journal of Global Economy, 8(1), 1–23. [11] IC Insights. (2020). Global wafer capacity 2020–2024. IC Insights, Inc. [12] Michelis, L., & Zestos, G. K. (2004). Exports, imports and GDP growth: Causal relations in six European Union countries. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 1(2), 71–85. [13] Nguyen, T. M., & Lien, N. T. K. (2020). The impact of real effective exchange rate volatility on trade balance in Vietnam. 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