1. NCCU Academic Hub
  2. Publications
  3. College of Social Science
  4. Theses
  5. Item

Publications-Theses

Article View/Open

Publication Export

Google ScholarTM

NCCU Library

Citation Infomation

Related Publications in TAIR

題名 社子島開發案對當地與鄰近房價之影響
The Impact of Shezidao Development Project on Local and Neighboring Housing Prices
作者 黃宗樺
Huang, Zong-Hua
貢獻者 吳文傑<br>胡偉民
黃宗樺
Huang, Zong-Hua
關鍵詞 社子島
房價
特徵價格理論
樣條迴歸模型
多期差異中之差異法
空間迴歸模型
Shezidao
Housing Prices
Hedonic Price Theory
Spline Regression
Difference-in-Differences with Multiple Time Periods
Spatial Regression
日期 2025
上傳時間 1-Jul-2025 14:20:16 (UTC+8)
摘要 社子島位於臺北市士林區，地理上受淡水河與基隆河環繞，形成相對獨立的區塊，使其發展條件與一般舊市區有所不同。因地勢低窪與防洪需求限制，長期遭政府劃定為禁限建地區，導致區域發展嚴重落後。隨著都市更新議題興起，社子島再次成為重要點發展政策，其對鄰近地區房市之影響也備受關注。 本研究旨在探討社子島開發案推進階段對社子次分區及鄰近地區房價之影響，並評估開發之外溢效果。研究資料涵蓋2018年至2024年間臺北市及新北市房地交易案例，運用QGIS量子地理資訊系統計算距離變數，並結合特徵價格理論（Hedonic Price Theory）、樣條迴歸模型（Spline Regression）、多期差異中之差異法（Difference-in-Differences with Multiple Time Periods, DID-MTP）與空間迴歸模型（Spatial Regression）進行實證分析。實證結果顯示，社子島開發案影響鄰近房價之範圍為社子次分區外圍300公尺。此外，缺乏實質成果之政策對社子次分區與鄰近地區房價影響有限，政策配套交通建設施工期則對社子次分區與鄰近地區房價具有短期負面影響。 本研究結果補足社子島環境治理與都市發展交互影響之實證學術文獻，亦為未來相似低窪地區與相對獨立之區域開發政策規劃與不動產市場判斷提供了重要實證依據。
Shezidao, located in the Shilin District of Taipei City, is geographically surrounded by the Tamsui River and the Keelung River, forming a relatively isolated area. Due to its low elevation and associated flood prevention requirements, the area has long been designated by the government as a restricted construction zone, resulting in significant developmental stagnation. With the growing prominence of urban renewal initiatives, Shezidao has once again emerged as a focal point in development policy, raising concerns over its potential impact on neighboring housing prices. This study aims to explore the impact of the advancement of Shezidao development project on housing prices within Shezi sub-district and neighboring areas, and to evaluate the spillover effects of the development. The research utilizes housing transaction data from Taipei City and New Taipei City between 2018 and 2024. Distance variables are calculated using Quantum Geographic Information System, and the analysis employs Hedonic Price Theory, Spline Regression, Difference-in-Differences with Multiple Time Periods, and Spatial Regression. The empirical evidence indicates that the influence of Shezidao development project on housing prices extends to a 300-meter perimeter beyond Shezi sub-district. Furthermore, policy announcements lacking substantive implementation have limited impact on housing prices in both Shezi sub-district and neighboring areas. In contrast, the construction period of supporting transportation infrastructure projects exerts a short-term negative effect on housing prices in Shezi sub-district and neighboring areas. This study contributes to the empirical research literature on the interaction between environmental governance and urban development in Shezidao. It also provides important empirical evidence for future policy planning and real estate market assessment in similar low-lying and relatively isolated regions.
參考文獻 一、 中文文獻 1. 何姍嬬、劉奕呈與許義忠（2024）。自住與非自住之房屋稅率差異對房價之影響—差異中之差異法的應用。《住宅學報》，33(2)，27–62。 2. 李春長、梁志民、林豐文（2017）。捷運系統對鄰近住宅價格之影響：以差異中之差異法估計。《台灣土地研究》，20(2)，31–58。 3. 宋豐荃（2015）。鄰近公園有助提升房價嗎？—大小公園對高低房價影響程度之研究（碩士論文）。國立政治大學。 4. 林忠樑、林佳慧（2014）。學校特徵與空間距離對周邊房價之影響分析—以台北市為例。《經濟論文叢刊》，42(2)，215–271。 5. 林素菁（2002）。台灣地區特徵性房價函數估計係數不一致性問題之探討。中華民國住宅學會第十一屆年會論文集，268–277。 6. 林秋瑾、楊宗憲、張金鶚（1996）。住宅價格指數之研究—以台北市為例。《住宅學報》，4，1–30。 7. 周映彤（2021）。從審議民主探討都市計畫之民眾參與：以臺北市社子島開發案為例（碩士論文）。國立政治大學。 8. 柯昕彤（2020）。市地重劃對鄰近房價之影響—以土城暫緩發展區為例（碩士論文）。國立政治大學。 9. 徐士勛、陳琮仁、林士淵、張金鶚（2020）。高雄氣爆後的房價被市場暴棄了？《經濟論文》，48(1)，33–68。 10. 蔡芷婕（2021）。交通建設施工階段對房價的影響：以淡江大橋為例（碩士論文）。國立政治大學。 11. 黃俊翔（2010）。台北都會區房地產價格上漲之關鍵因素探討（碩士論文）。國立臺灣大學。 12. 許芷涵（2020）。褐地對周邊房價的影響分析（碩士論文）。國立政治大學。 13. 蘇育儒（2019）。違章建築對當地房價之影響（碩士論文）。國立政治大學。 14. 陳冠廷（2013）。GIS空間迴歸分析地價變異：以台南市東區為例（碩士論文）。國立成功大學。 15. 戴國正（2012）。大眾捷運系統對房價影響效果之再檢視（碩士論文）。國立政治大學。 16. 羅吉納（2024）。都市水患的社區韌性：臺北社子島的例子（碩士論文）。國立臺灣師範大學。 二、 英文文獻 1. Anselin, L. (1988). Lagrange multiplier test diagnostics for spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. Geographical Analysis, 20(1), 1–17. 2. Anselin, L., Bera, A. K., Florax, R., & Yoon, M. J. (1996). Simple diagnostic tests for spatial dependence. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 26(1), 77–104. 3. Beltrán, A., Maddison, D., & Elliott, R. J. R. (2019). Is flood risk capitalised into property values? Ecological Economics, 157, 1–9. 4. Boyle, M., & Kiel, K. (2001). A survey of house price hedonic studies of the impact of environmental externalities. Journal of Real Estate Literature, 9(2), 117–144. 5. Brantly Callaway, & Sant’Anna, P. H. C. (2021). Difference-in-differences with multiple time periods. Journal of Econometrics, 225(2), 200–230. 6. Card, D., & Krueger, A. B. (1994). Minimum wages and employment: A case study of the fast-food industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. The American Economic Review, 84(4), 772–793. 7. Chernobai, E. (2011). Nonlinear spatial and temporal effects of highway construction on house prices. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 42(3), 348–370. 8. Fan, E. (2018). Looking for a parallel universe: The differences-in-differences method. Review of Accounting and Auditing Studies, 8(1), 1–13. 9. Follain, J. R., & Malpezzi, S. (1980). Dissecting housing value and rent: Estimates of hedonic indexes for thirty-nine large SMSAs. Urban Land Institute. 10. Forouhar, A., & van Lierop, D. (2021). If you build it, they will change: Evaluating the impact of commuter rail stations on real estate values and neighborhood composition in the Rotterdam–The Hague metropolitan area, the Netherlands. Journal of Transport and Land Use, 14(1), 949–973. 11. Fotheringham, A. S., Brunsdon, C., & Charlton, M. (2002). Geographically weighted regression: The analysis of spatially varying relationships. Wiley. 12. Geoghegan, J. (2002). The value of open spaces in residential land use. Land Use Policy, 19(1), 91–98. 13. Hoshino, T., & Kuriyama, K. (2010). Measuring the benefits of neighborhood park amenities: Application and comparison of spatial hedonic approaches. Environmental and Resource Economics, 45(3), 429–444. 14. Huang, H.-C., Chu, S.-H., Peng, C.-L., & Liao, T.-H. (2022). The spatial spillover effect of local fiscal expenditure in regional housing market: The case of Taiwan. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 37, 1339–1365. 15. Lancaster, K. J. (1966). A new approach to consumer theory. Journal of Political Economy, 74(2), 132–158. 16. Liou, J.-L., Randall, A., Wu, P.-I., & Chen, H.-H. (2019). Monetarizing spillover effects of soil and groundwater contaminated sites in Taiwan: How much more will people pay for housing to avoid contamination? Asian Economic Journal, 33(1), 67–86. 17. Lee, C.-C., Liang, C.-M., & Chen, C.-Y. (2017). The impact of urban renewal on neighborhood housing prices in Taipei: An application of the difference-in-difference method. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 32(3), 407–428. 18. McElfish, J. M., Jr. (2005). Response to “Environmental regulations and the housing market: A review of the literature.” Cityscape, 8(1), 273–276. 19. Metz, N. E. (2015). Effect of distance to schooling on home prices. Review of Regional Studies, 45(2), 151–171. 20. Moran, P. A. P. (1950). Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena. Biometrika, 37(1–2), 17–23. 21. Osland, L. (2010). An application of spatial econometrics in relation to hedonic house price modeling. Journal of Real Estate Research, 32(3), 289–320. 22. Rosen, S. (1974). Hedonic prices and implicit markets: Product differentiation in pure competition. Journal of Political Economy, 82(1), 34–55. 23. Sirmans, G. S., Macpherson, D. A., & Zietz, E. N. (2005). The composition of hedonic pricing models. Journal of Real Estate Literature, 13(1), 3–43. 24. Tobler, W. R. (1970). A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region. Economic Geography, 46(Suppl.), 234–240. 25. Vatcheva, K., Lee, M., McCormick, J. B., & Rahbar, M. (2016). Multicollinearity in regression analyses conducted in epidemiologic studies. Epidemiology: Open Access, 6(6), 227.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
112255015
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112255015
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 吳文傑<br>胡偉民zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 黃宗樺zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Huang, Zong-Huaen_US
dc.creator (作者) 黃宗樺zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Huang, Zong-Huaen_US
dc.date (日期) 2025en_US
dc.date.accessioned 1-Jul-2025 14:20:16 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 1-Jul-2025 14:20:16 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Jul-2025 14:20:16 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0112255015en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/157683-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財政學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 112255015zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 社子島位於臺北市士林區，地理上受淡水河與基隆河環繞，形成相對獨立的區塊，使其發展條件與一般舊市區有所不同。因地勢低窪與防洪需求限制，長期遭政府劃定為禁限建地區，導致區域發展嚴重落後。隨著都市更新議題興起，社子島再次成為重要點發展政策，其對鄰近地區房市之影響也備受關注。 本研究旨在探討社子島開發案推進階段對社子次分區及鄰近地區房價之影響，並評估開發之外溢效果。研究資料涵蓋2018年至2024年間臺北市及新北市房地交易案例，運用QGIS量子地理資訊系統計算距離變數，並結合特徵價格理論（Hedonic Price Theory）、樣條迴歸模型（Spline Regression）、多期差異中之差異法（Difference-in-Differences with Multiple Time Periods, DID-MTP）與空間迴歸模型（Spatial Regression）進行實證分析。實證結果顯示，社子島開發案影響鄰近房價之範圍為社子次分區外圍300公尺。此外，缺乏實質成果之政策對社子次分區與鄰近地區房價影響有限，政策配套交通建設施工期則對社子次分區與鄰近地區房價具有短期負面影響。 本研究結果補足社子島環境治理與都市發展交互影響之實證學術文獻，亦為未來相似低窪地區與相對獨立之區域開發政策規劃與不動產市場判斷提供了重要實證依據。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Shezidao, located in the Shilin District of Taipei City, is geographically surrounded by the Tamsui River and the Keelung River, forming a relatively isolated area. Due to its low elevation and associated flood prevention requirements, the area has long been designated by the government as a restricted construction zone, resulting in significant developmental stagnation. With the growing prominence of urban renewal initiatives, Shezidao has once again emerged as a focal point in development policy, raising concerns over its potential impact on neighboring housing prices. This study aims to explore the impact of the advancement of Shezidao development project on housing prices within Shezi sub-district and neighboring areas, and to evaluate the spillover effects of the development. The research utilizes housing transaction data from Taipei City and New Taipei City between 2018 and 2024. Distance variables are calculated using Quantum Geographic Information System, and the analysis employs Hedonic Price Theory, Spline Regression, Difference-in-Differences with Multiple Time Periods, and Spatial Regression. The empirical evidence indicates that the influence of Shezidao development project on housing prices extends to a 300-meter perimeter beyond Shezi sub-district. Furthermore, policy announcements lacking substantive implementation have limited impact on housing prices in both Shezi sub-district and neighboring areas. In contrast, the construction period of supporting transportation infrastructure projects exerts a short-term negative effect on housing prices in Shezi sub-district and neighboring areas. This study contributes to the empirical research literature on the interaction between environmental governance and urban development in Shezidao. It also provides important empirical evidence for future policy planning and real estate market assessment in similar low-lying and relatively isolated regions.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究目的 3 第三節 研究範圍 4 第四節 研究方法 5 第五節 研究架構 6 第二章 文獻回顧 7 第一節 特徵價格理論 7 第二節 環境治理外溢效果 8 第三節 樣條迴歸模型 10 第四節 空間迴歸模型 12 第五節 差異中之差異法 14 第三章 研究方法與資料說明 16 第一節 研究設計 16 第二節 開發說明 17 第三節 資料說明 19 第四章 模型建立與變數選取 21 第一節 模型建立 21 第二節 變數選取 30 第三節 敘述統計 35 第四節 社子次分區鄰近行政區房價 41 第五章 實證分析與結果 43 第一節 社子島開發案影響範圍 44 第二節 社子島開發案政策效果 47 第三節 社子島開發案外溢效果 53 第六章 結論與建議 58 第一節 結論 58 第二節 後續研究建議 60 參考文獻 61zh_TW
dc.format.extent 7999933 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112255015en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 社子島zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房價zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 特徵價格理論zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 樣條迴歸模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 多期差異中之差異法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 空間迴歸模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Shezidaoen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Housing Pricesen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Hedonic Price Theoryen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Spline Regressionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Difference-in-Differences with Multiple Time Periodsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Spatial Regressionen_US
dc.title (題名) 社子島開發案對當地與鄰近房價之影響zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Impact of Shezidao Development Project on Local and Neighboring Housing Pricesen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、 中文文獻 1. 何姍嬬、劉奕呈與許義忠（2024）。自住與非自住之房屋稅率差異對房價之影響—差異中之差異法的應用。《住宅學報》，33(2)，27–62。 2. 李春長、梁志民、林豐文（2017）。捷運系統對鄰近住宅價格之影響：以差異中之差異法估計。《台灣土地研究》，20(2)，31–58。 3. 宋豐荃（2015）。鄰近公園有助提升房價嗎？—大小公園對高低房價影響程度之研究（碩士論文）。國立政治大學。 4. 林忠樑、林佳慧（2014）。學校特徵與空間距離對周邊房價之影響分析—以台北市為例。《經濟論文叢刊》，42(2)，215–271。 5. 林素菁（2002）。台灣地區特徵性房價函數估計係數不一致性問題之探討。中華民國住宅學會第十一屆年會論文集，268–277。 6. 林秋瑾、楊宗憲、張金鶚（1996）。住宅價格指數之研究—以台北市為例。《住宅學報》，4，1–30。 7. 周映彤（2021）。從審議民主探討都市計畫之民眾參與：以臺北市社子島開發案為例（碩士論文）。國立政治大學。 8. 柯昕彤（2020）。市地重劃對鄰近房價之影響—以土城暫緩發展區為例（碩士論文）。國立政治大學。 9. 徐士勛、陳琮仁、林士淵、張金鶚（2020）。高雄氣爆後的房價被市場暴棄了？《經濟論文》，48(1)，33–68。 10. 蔡芷婕（2021）。交通建設施工階段對房價的影響：以淡江大橋為例（碩士論文）。國立政治大學。 11. 黃俊翔（2010）。台北都會區房地產價格上漲之關鍵因素探討（碩士論文）。國立臺灣大學。 12. 許芷涵（2020）。褐地對周邊房價的影響分析（碩士論文）。國立政治大學。 13. 蘇育儒（2019）。違章建築對當地房價之影響（碩士論文）。國立政治大學。 14. 陳冠廷（2013）。GIS空間迴歸分析地價變異：以台南市東區為例（碩士論文）。國立成功大學。 15. 戴國正（2012）。大眾捷運系統對房價影響效果之再檢視（碩士論文）。國立政治大學。 16. 羅吉納（2024）。都市水患的社區韌性：臺北社子島的例子（碩士論文）。國立臺灣師範大學。 二、 英文文獻 1. Anselin, L. (1988). Lagrange multiplier test diagnostics for spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. Geographical Analysis, 20(1), 1–17. 2. Anselin, L., Bera, A. K., Florax, R., & Yoon, M. J. (1996). Simple diagnostic tests for spatial dependence. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 26(1), 77–104. 3. Beltrán, A., Maddison, D., & Elliott, R. J. R. (2019). Is flood risk capitalised into property values? Ecological Economics, 157, 1–9. 4. Boyle, M., & Kiel, K. (2001). A survey of house price hedonic studies of the impact of environmental externalities. Journal of Real Estate Literature, 9(2), 117–144. 5. Brantly Callaway, & Sant’Anna, P. H. C. (2021). Difference-in-differences with multiple time periods. Journal of Econometrics, 225(2), 200–230. 6. Card, D., & Krueger, A. B. (1994). Minimum wages and employment: A case study of the fast-food industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. The American Economic Review, 84(4), 772–793. 7. Chernobai, E. (2011). Nonlinear spatial and temporal effects of highway construction on house prices. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 42(3), 348–370. 8. Fan, E. (2018). Looking for a parallel universe: The differences-in-differences method. Review of Accounting and Auditing Studies, 8(1), 1–13. 9. Follain, J. R., & Malpezzi, S. (1980). Dissecting housing value and rent: Estimates of hedonic indexes for thirty-nine large SMSAs. Urban Land Institute. 10. Forouhar, A., & van Lierop, D. (2021). If you build it, they will change: Evaluating the impact of commuter rail stations on real estate values and neighborhood composition in the Rotterdam–The Hague metropolitan area, the Netherlands. Journal of Transport and Land Use, 14(1), 949–973. 11. Fotheringham, A. S., Brunsdon, C., & Charlton, M. (2002). Geographically weighted regression: The analysis of spatially varying relationships. Wiley. 12. Geoghegan, J. (2002). The value of open spaces in residential land use. Land Use Policy, 19(1), 91–98. 13. Hoshino, T., & Kuriyama, K. (2010). Measuring the benefits of neighborhood park amenities: Application and comparison of spatial hedonic approaches. Environmental and Resource Economics, 45(3), 429–444. 14. Huang, H.-C., Chu, S.-H., Peng, C.-L., & Liao, T.-H. (2022). The spatial spillover effect of local fiscal expenditure in regional housing market: The case of Taiwan. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 37, 1339–1365. 15. Lancaster, K. J. (1966). A new approach to consumer theory. Journal of Political Economy, 74(2), 132–158. 16. Liou, J.-L., Randall, A., Wu, P.-I., & Chen, H.-H. (2019). Monetarizing spillover effects of soil and groundwater contaminated sites in Taiwan: How much more will people pay for housing to avoid contamination? Asian Economic Journal, 33(1), 67–86. 17. Lee, C.-C., Liang, C.-M., & Chen, C.-Y. (2017). The impact of urban renewal on neighborhood housing prices in Taipei: An application of the difference-in-difference method. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 32(3), 407–428. 18. McElfish, J. M., Jr. (2005). Response to “Environmental regulations and the housing market: A review of the literature.” Cityscape, 8(1), 273–276. 19. Metz, N. E. (2015). Effect of distance to schooling on home prices. Review of Regional Studies, 45(2), 151–171. 20. Moran, P. A. P. (1950). Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena. Biometrika, 37(1–2), 17–23. 21. Osland, L. (2010). An application of spatial econometrics in relation to hedonic house price modeling. Journal of Real Estate Research, 32(3), 289–320. 22. Rosen, S. (1974). Hedonic prices and implicit markets: Product differentiation in pure competition. Journal of Political Economy, 82(1), 34–55. 23. Sirmans, G. S., Macpherson, D. A., & Zietz, E. N. (2005). The composition of hedonic pricing models. Journal of Real Estate Literature, 13(1), 3–43. 24. Tobler, W. R. (1970). A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region. Economic Geography, 46(Suppl.), 234–240. 25. Vatcheva, K., Lee, M., McCormick, J. B., & Rahbar, M. (2016). Multicollinearity in regression analyses conducted in epidemiologic studies. Epidemiology: Open Access, 6(6), 227.zh_TW