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題名 疫情下過度自信經理人的投資決策對公司績效的影響
Overconfident Managers' Investment Decisions on Company Performance During the Epidemic
作者 鄭宸宜
Cheng, Chen-Yi
貢獻者 周冠男
Jhou, Guan-Nan
鄭宸宜
Cheng, Chen-Yi
關鍵詞 過度自信
投資決策
公司績效
公司治理
差異中之差
COVID-19
Overconfidence
Investment Decisions
Firm Performance
Corporate Governance
Difference-in-Differences
COVID-19
日期 2025
上傳時間 1-Jul-2025 14:50:32 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究針對 COVID-19 疫情情境下，具高自信特質的企業經理人是否會影響其投資行為與公司營運表現進行探討，並進一步評估公司治理機制是否能發揮調節作用。以 2018 至 2023 年台灣上市櫃非金融企業為對象，採用差異中之差法（Difference-in-Differences, DID）與普通最小平方法（Ordinary Least Squares, OLS）進行實證分析，並透過盈餘預測誤差衡量過度自信程度。實證結果指出，CEO 過度自信與資本支出呈正向關係，但此現象未在疫情期間達到統計顯著。此外，具高自信傾向之 CEO 所領導公司在財務表現（如 ROA）上呈現負面偏誤，顯示其高估企業績效可能導致資源錯置風險。進一步分析發現，若公司具備較高的治理強度，能有效緩解 CEO 投資決策偏差，凸顯良好治理機制的重要性與平衡功能。
This study explores how CEO overconfidence affects firms’ capital allocation and performance in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, while also assessing whether corporate governance moderates this relationship. Using panel data from publicly listed non-financial firms in Taiwan between 2018 and 2023, the analysis applies Difference-in-Differences (DID) and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models to measure CEO overconfidence through revenue forecast bias and changes in ownership. The empirical findings reveal that CEOs exhibiting overconfidence tendencies tend to raise capital spending, though the effect does not become significantly stronger during the pandemic. Moreover, firms led by overconfident CEOs tend to exhibit lower return on assets (ROA), suggesting that such behavioral bias may lead to resource misallocation and operational inefficiencies. A triple-differences (DDD) analysis further reveals that strong corporate governance, particularly higher board ownership, can mitigate the excessive investment behaviors of overconfident CEOs. Overall, this study highlights the substantial influence of managerial traits under uncertain environments and affirms the role of governance as an effective internal control mechanism during crises.
參考文獻 Alicke, M. D., Klotz, M. L., Breitenbecher, D. L., Yurak, T. J., & Vredenburg, D. S. (1995). Personal contact, individuation, and the better-than-average effect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 68(5), 804–825. Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J.-S. (2009). Mostly harmless econometrics: An empiricist's companion. Princeton University Press. Bertrand, M., Duflo, E., & Mullainathan, S. (2004). How much should we trust differences-in-differences estimates? Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1), 249–275. Biddle, G. C., Hilary, G., & Verdi, R. S. (2009). How does financial reporting quality relate to investment efficiency? Journal of Accounting and Economics, 48(2–3), 112–131. Cornett, M. M., Marcus, A. J., Saunders, A., & Tehranian, H. (2009). The impact of institutional ownership on corporate operating performance. Journal of Banking & Finance, 33(3), 559–568. Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1992). The cross‐section of expected stock returns. Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427–465. Gao, H., Harford, J., & Li, K. (2021). CEO turnover and firm performance: Evidence from Chinese listed firms. Journal of Financial Economics, 142(2), 674–697. Goel, A. M., & Thakor, A. V. (2006). Overconfidence, CEO selection, and corporate governance. Journal of Finance, 61(6), 2737–2784. Graham, J. R., Harvey, C. R., & Puri, M. (2013). Managerial attitudes and corporate actions. Journal of Financial Economics, 109(1), 103–121. Hackbarth, D. (2008). Managerial traits and capital structure decisions. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 43(4), 843–882. Heaton, J. B. (2002). Managerial optimism and corporate finance. Financial Management, 31(2), 33–45. Hirshleifer, D., Low, A., & Teoh, S. H. (2012). Are overconfident CEOs better innovators? Journal of Finance, 67(4), 1457–1498. Hovakimian, A. (2006). Are observed capital structures determined by equity market timing? Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 41(1), 221–243. Hribar, P., & Yang, H. (2016). CEO overconfidence and management forecasting. Contemporary Accounting Research, 33(1), 204–227. Jensen, M. C., & Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 305–360. Lin, Y. F., Yeh, Y. M., & Yang, F. M. (2005). The impact of corporate governance on CEO overconfidence and firm performance: Evidence from Taiwan. Asian Economic Journal, 19(2), 147–164. Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2005). CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. Journal of Finance, 60(6), 2661–2700. Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2008). Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market’s reaction. Journal of Financial Economics, 89(1), 20–43. Myers, S. C., & Majluf, N. S. (1984). Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have. Journal of Financial Economics, 13(2), 187–221. Noel, M. D. (1984). The Inventory Turnover Ratio and Firm Performance. Accounting Review, 59(1), 23–32. Penman, S. H. (2013). Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill. Richardson, S. (2006). Over-investment of free cash flow. Review of Accounting Studies, 11(2-3), 159–189. Schrand, C. M., & Zechman, S. L. C. (2012). Executive overconfidence and the slippery slope to financial misreporting. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 53(1-2), 311–329. Weinstein, N. D. (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39(5), 806–820. Xia, M., & Fusheng, W. (2010). CEO overconfidence and earnings forecast bias. China Journal of Accounting Research, 3(2), 135–146. Lin, Peng-Hsun. (2023). 台灣企業公司治理與經理人行為偏誤之關聯性分析 [The relationship between corporate governance and managerial behavioral bias in Taiwanese enterprises]. 財務研究月刊, 15(2), 31–52. Chang, Yang-Gen. (2018). 高階主管過度自信與併購決策關聯之探討 [An investigation of the relationship between executive overconfidence and merger decisions] (Master’s thesis, National Taiwan University, Taiwan). Huang, Yu-Ting, & Liu, Wei-Chi. (2020). 經理人過度自信對投資決策的影響：以台灣上市公司為例 [The impact of managerial overconfidence on investment decisions: Evidence from listed companies in Taiwan]. 財務金融學刊, 28(3), 1–27.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理學系
112357017
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112357017
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 周冠男zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Jhou, Guan-Nanen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 鄭宸宜zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Cheng, Chen-Yien_US
dc.creator (作者) 鄭宸宜zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Cheng, Chen-Yien_US
dc.date (日期) 2025en_US
dc.date.accessioned 1-Jul-2025 14:50:32 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 1-Jul-2025 14:50:32 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Jul-2025 14:50:32 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0112357017en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/157775-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財務管理學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 112357017zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究針對 COVID-19 疫情情境下，具高自信特質的企業經理人是否會影響其投資行為與公司營運表現進行探討，並進一步評估公司治理機制是否能發揮調節作用。以 2018 至 2023 年台灣上市櫃非金融企業為對象，採用差異中之差法（Difference-in-Differences, DID）與普通最小平方法（Ordinary Least Squares, OLS）進行實證分析，並透過盈餘預測誤差衡量過度自信程度。實證結果指出，CEO 過度自信與資本支出呈正向關係，但此現象未在疫情期間達到統計顯著。此外，具高自信傾向之 CEO 所領導公司在財務表現（如 ROA）上呈現負面偏誤，顯示其高估企業績效可能導致資源錯置風險。進一步分析發現，若公司具備較高的治理強度，能有效緩解 CEO 投資決策偏差，凸顯良好治理機制的重要性與平衡功能。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study explores how CEO overconfidence affects firms’ capital allocation and performance in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, while also assessing whether corporate governance moderates this relationship. Using panel data from publicly listed non-financial firms in Taiwan between 2018 and 2023, the analysis applies Difference-in-Differences (DID) and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models to measure CEO overconfidence through revenue forecast bias and changes in ownership. The empirical findings reveal that CEOs exhibiting overconfidence tendencies tend to raise capital spending, though the effect does not become significantly stronger during the pandemic. Moreover, firms led by overconfident CEOs tend to exhibit lower return on assets (ROA), suggesting that such behavioral bias may lead to resource misallocation and operational inefficiencies. A triple-differences (DDD) analysis further reveals that strong corporate governance, particularly higher board ownership, can mitigate the excessive investment behaviors of overconfident CEOs. Overall, this study highlights the substantial influence of managerial traits under uncertain environments and affirms the role of governance as an effective internal control mechanism during crises.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Chapter 1 Introduction 8 1.1 Research Background and Motivation 8 1.2 Research Objectives 10 1.3 Research Framework 12 Chapter 2 Literature Review 13 2.1 Definition and Measurement of Overconfidence 13 2.2 The Relationship Between Overconfidence and Investment Decisions 16 2.3 The Impact of Overconfidence on Firm Performance 19 Chapter 3 Research Methodology 21 3.1 Research Period and Data Sources 21 3.2 Research Hypotheses 23 3.3 Variable Definitions and Measurements 25 3.4. Empirical Models 31 Chapter 4 Empirical Results 35 4.1 Descriptive Statistics 35 4.2 Correlation Analysis 38 4.3 DID Analysis Results 41 4.4 OLS Regression Analysis 47 Chapter 5 Conclusion 56 5.1 Key Findings and Contributions 56 5.2 Managerial Implications, Limitations, and Future Research 57 Chapter 6 References 59zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1464332 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112357017en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 過度自信zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 投資決策zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 公司績效zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 公司治理zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 差異中之差zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) COVID-19zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Overconfidenceen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Investment Decisionsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Firm Performanceen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Corporate Governanceen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Difference-in-Differencesen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) COVID-19en_US
dc.title (題名) 疫情下過度自信經理人的投資決策對公司績效的影響zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Overconfident Managers' Investment Decisions on Company Performance During the Epidemicen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Alicke, M. D., Klotz, M. L., Breitenbecher, D. L., Yurak, T. J., & Vredenburg, D. S. (1995). Personal contact, individuation, and the better-than-average effect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 68(5), 804–825. Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J.-S. (2009). Mostly harmless econometrics: An empiricist's companion. Princeton University Press. Bertrand, M., Duflo, E., & Mullainathan, S. (2004). How much should we trust differences-in-differences estimates? Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1), 249–275. Biddle, G. C., Hilary, G., & Verdi, R. S. (2009). How does financial reporting quality relate to investment efficiency? Journal of Accounting and Economics, 48(2–3), 112–131. Cornett, M. M., Marcus, A. J., Saunders, A., & Tehranian, H. (2009). The impact of institutional ownership on corporate operating performance. Journal of Banking & Finance, 33(3), 559–568. Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1992). The cross‐section of expected stock returns. Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427–465. Gao, H., Harford, J., & Li, K. (2021). CEO turnover and firm performance: Evidence from Chinese listed firms. Journal of Financial Economics, 142(2), 674–697. Goel, A. M., & Thakor, A. V. (2006). Overconfidence, CEO selection, and corporate governance. Journal of Finance, 61(6), 2737–2784. Graham, J. R., Harvey, C. R., & Puri, M. (2013). Managerial attitudes and corporate actions. Journal of Financial Economics, 109(1), 103–121. Hackbarth, D. (2008). Managerial traits and capital structure decisions. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 43(4), 843–882. Heaton, J. B. (2002). Managerial optimism and corporate finance. Financial Management, 31(2), 33–45. Hirshleifer, D., Low, A., & Teoh, S. H. (2012). Are overconfident CEOs better innovators? Journal of Finance, 67(4), 1457–1498. Hovakimian, A. (2006). Are observed capital structures determined by equity market timing? Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 41(1), 221–243. Hribar, P., & Yang, H. (2016). CEO overconfidence and management forecasting. Contemporary Accounting Research, 33(1), 204–227. Jensen, M. C., & Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 305–360. Lin, Y. F., Yeh, Y. M., & Yang, F. M. (2005). The impact of corporate governance on CEO overconfidence and firm performance: Evidence from Taiwan. Asian Economic Journal, 19(2), 147–164. Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2005). CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. Journal of Finance, 60(6), 2661–2700. Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2008). Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market’s reaction. Journal of Financial Economics, 89(1), 20–43. Myers, S. C., & Majluf, N. S. (1984). Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have. Journal of Financial Economics, 13(2), 187–221. Noel, M. D. (1984). The Inventory Turnover Ratio and Firm Performance. Accounting Review, 59(1), 23–32. Penman, S. H. (2013). Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill. Richardson, S. (2006). Over-investment of free cash flow. Review of Accounting Studies, 11(2-3), 159–189. Schrand, C. M., & Zechman, S. L. C. (2012). Executive overconfidence and the slippery slope to financial misreporting. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 53(1-2), 311–329. Weinstein, N. D. (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39(5), 806–820. Xia, M., & Fusheng, W. (2010). CEO overconfidence and earnings forecast bias. China Journal of Accounting Research, 3(2), 135–146. Lin, Peng-Hsun. (2023). 台灣企業公司治理與經理人行為偏誤之關聯性分析 [The relationship between corporate governance and managerial behavioral bias in Taiwanese enterprises]. 財務研究月刊, 15(2), 31–52. Chang, Yang-Gen. (2018). 高階主管過度自信與併購決策關聯之探討 [An investigation of the relationship between executive overconfidence and merger decisions] (Master’s thesis, National Taiwan University, Taiwan). Huang, Yu-Ting, & Liu, Wei-Chi. (2020). 經理人過度自信對投資決策的影響：以台灣上市公司為例 [The impact of managerial overconfidence on investment decisions: Evidence from listed companies in Taiwan]. 財務金融學刊, 28(3), 1–27.zh_TW