1. NCCU Academic Hub
  2. Publications
  3. College of Social Science
  4. Theses
  5. Item

Publications-Theses

Article View/Open

Publication Export

Google ScholarTM

NCCU Library

Citation Infomation

Related Publications in TAIR

題名 稅收政策的非線性效果: 動態追蹤資料分量迴歸之應用
Nonlinear Effects of Tax Policy: A Dynamic Panel Data Quantile Regression Approach
作者 謝易霖
Xie, Yi-Lin
貢獻者 林馨怡
Lin, Hsin-Yi
謝易霖
Xie, Yi-Lin
關鍵詞 稅收政策
非線性
分量迴歸
日期 2025
上傳時間 1-Jul-2025 15:34:28 (UTC+8)
摘要 本文運用動態追蹤資料的分量迴歸方法，分析 1980 至 2023 年間 15 個 OECD 國家的資料，探討稅收政策對經濟成長的影響。結果發現，消費稅的調整對經濟成長影響有限，整體變化不大，僅在特定時期呈現順周期現象，可能與其調幅小、且較為漸進式的調整有關。相對而言，資本稅變動則具有較為明顯的順周期特性，經濟成長動力越強勁，其造成的正向效果越大。至於勞動稅的變動，隨著經濟由低成長邁向高成長階段，其影響力會先增強，之後逐漸減弱。概括而言，不同稅制在各種經濟情況下的反應各不相同，顯示稅收政策的效果並非線性，並且其影響程度的變化各有所異。
參考文獻 中文參考文獻 陳彥凱。(2018)。財政整頓的不對稱效果: 追蹤資料分量迴歸之應用。國立政治大學碩士論文。 英文參考文獻 Adnan, W., Arin, K. P., Corakci, A., & Spagnolo, N. (2022). On the heterogeneous effects of tax policy on labor market outcomes. Southern Economic Journal, 88(3), 991-1036. Aiyagari, S. R., Christiano, L. J., & Eichenbaum, M. (1992). The output, employment, and interest rate effects of government consumption. Journal of Monetary Economics, 30(1), 73-86. Alesina, A., & Ardagna, S. (2010). Large changes in fiscal policy: taxes versus spending. Tax Policy and the Economy, 24(1), 35-68. Alesina, A., & Perotti, R. (1995). Fiscal expansions and adjustments in OECD countries. Economic policy, 10(21), 205-248. Alfò, M., Carbonari, L., & Trovato, G. (2023). On the effects of taxation on growth: an empirical assessment. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 27(5), 1289-1318. Anderson, T. W., & Hsiao, C. (1981). Estimation of Dynamic Models with Error Components. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76(375), 598-606. Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and An Application to Employment Equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277-297. Arelleno, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another Look at Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error Component Models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29-51. Arin, K. P., Koray, F., & Spagnolo, N. (2015). Fiscal multipliers in good times and bad times. Journal of Macroeconomics, 44, 303-311. Bachmann, R., & Sims, E. R. (2012). Confidence and the transmission of government spending shocks. Journal of Monetary Economics, 59(3), 235-249. Barro, R. J., & King, R. G. (1984). Time-separable preferences and intertemporal-substitution models of business cycles. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 99(4), 817-839. Barro, R. J., & Redlick, C. J. (2011). Macroeconomic effects from government purchases and taxes. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126(1), 51-102. Baxter, M., & King, R. G. (1993). Fiscal policy in general equilibrium. The American Economic Review, 315-334. Beetsma, R., & Giuliodpri, M., (2011). The effects of government purchase shocks: Review and estimates for the EU. The Economic Journal, 121 (February), 4–32. Biolsi, C. (2017). Nonlinear effects of fiscal policy over the business cycle. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 78, 54-87. Blanchard, O. J., & Leigh, D. (2013). Growth forecast errors and fiscal multipliers. American Economic Review, 103(3), 117-120. Blanchard, O., & Perotti, R. (2002). An empirical characterization of the dynamic effects of changes in government spending and taxes on output. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4), 1329-1368. Bonam, D., De Haan, J., & Soederhuizen, B. (2022). The effects of fiscal policy at the effective lower bound. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 26(1), 149-185. Bonam, D., & Konietschke, P. (2020). Tax multipliers across the business cycle. De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper. Bossie, A. (2020). The asymmetric response of the economy to tax changes before and after 1980. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 51, 101075. Cameron, A. C. & Trivedi, P. K. (2005). Microeconometrics: Methods and Applications. Cambridge University Press: New York, NY, USA. Candelon, B., & Lieb, L. (2013). Fiscal policy in good and bad times. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 37(12), 2679-2694. Canzoneri, M., Collard, F., Dellas, H., & Diba, B. (2016). Fiscal multipliers in recessions. The Economic Journal, 126(590), 75-108. Chahrour, R., Schmitt-Grohé, S., & Uribe, M. (2012). A model-based evaluation of the debate on the size of the tax multiplier. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4(2), 28-45. Christiano, L., Eichenbaum, M., & Rebelo, S. (2011). When is the government spending multiplier large?. Journal of Political Economy, 119(1), 78-121. DeLong, J. Bradford and Summers, Lawrence, (2012), Fiscal policy in a depressed economy, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 43(1), 233-297. Demirel, U. D. (2021). The short-term effects of tax changes: The role of state dependence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 117, 918-934. Eskandari, O. (2019). State-dependent macroeconomic effects of tax changes. Available at SSRN 3374984. Fatás, A., & Summers, L. H. (2018). The permanent effects of fiscal consolidations. Journal of International Economics, 112, 238-250. Ferrara, L., Metelli, L., Natoli, F., & Siena, D. (2021). Questioning the puzzle: fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation. Journal of International Economics, 133, 103524. Fleischhacker, J. (2024). Fiscal policy and the business cycle: An argument for non-linear policy rules. MPRA Paper. Fotiou, A. (2022). Non-linearities in fiscal policy: The role of debt. European Economic Review, 150, 104212. Giavazzi, F., & Pagano, M. (1990). Can severe fiscal contractions be expansionary? Tales of two small European countries. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 5, 75-111. Gomes, F. A. R., Sakurai, S. N., & Soave, G. P. (2022). Government spending multipliers in good times and bad times: The case of emerging markets. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 26(3), 726-768. Guajardo, J., Leigh, D., & Pescatori, A. (2014). Expansionary austerity? International evidence. Journal of the European Economic Association, 12(4), 949-968. Han, Z. (2021). Low-frequency fiscal uncertainty. Journal of Monetary Economics, 117, 639-657. Hussain, S. M., & Malik, S. (2016). Asymmetric effects of exogenous tax changes. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 69, 268-300. Jeong, K. J. (2017). Effects of fiscal consolidation in 18 OECD countries. Seoul Journal of Economics, 30, 51-91. Kenc, T., & Cevik, E. I. (2024). Global corporate tax policy space. Economic Systems, 48(2), 101197. Leeper, E. M., Walker, T. B., & Yang, S. C. S. (2013). Fiscal foresight and information flows. Econometrica, 81(3), 1115-1145. Leus, M. (2021). Impact of fiscal policy on personal consumption expenditures and investments Doctoral Dissertation, Vilniaus Universitetas. Lin, H. Y. (2024). Endogeneity in long panel data quantile regression with an application in fiscal policy. Working paper. Malley, J., & Philippopoulos, A. (2023). The macroeconomic effects of funding US infrastructure. European Economic Review, 152, 104334. Mertens, K., & Ravn, M. O. (2011). Understanding the aggregate effects of anticipated and unanticipated tax policy shocks. Review of Economic Dynamics, 14(1), 27-54. Mertens, K., & Ravn, M. O. (2013). The dynamic effects of personal and corporate income tax changes in the United States. American Economic Review, 103(4), 1212-1247. Michaillat, P. (2014). A theory of countercyclical government multiplier. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 6(1), 190-217. Nguyen, A. D., Onnis, L., & Rossi, R. (2021). The macroeconomic effects of income and consumption tax changes. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 13(2), 439-466. Occhino, F. (2023). The macroeconomic effects of business tax cuts with debt financing and accelerated depreciation. Economic Modelling, 125, 106308. Quoc, T. H. (2023). Essays on state-dependent effects of tax news shocks Doctoral Dissertation, Oklahoma State University. Ramey, V. A. (2011). Can government purchases stimulate the economy?. Journal of Economic Literature, 49(3), 673-685. Romer, C. D., & Romer, D. H. (2010). The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: estimates based on a new measure of fiscal shocks. American Economic Review, 100(3), 763-801. Sims, E., & Wolff, J. (2018). The state-dependent effects of tax shocks. European Economic Review, 107, 57-85. Schuster, S. S., Jaremski, M., & Perlman, B. (2019). An empirical history of the United States postal savings system. NBER Working Paper. Zidar, O. (2019). Tax cuts for whom? Heterogeneous effects of income tax changes on growth and employment. Journal of Political Economy, 127(3), 1437-1472.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
112258008
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112258008
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林馨怡zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lin, Hsin-Yien_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 謝易霖zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Xie, Yi-Linen_US
dc.creator (作者) 謝易霖zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Xie, Yi-Linen_US
dc.date (日期) 2025en_US
dc.date.accessioned 1-Jul-2025 15:34:28 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 1-Jul-2025 15:34:28 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Jul-2025 15:34:28 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0112258008en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/157859-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經濟學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 112258008zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文運用動態追蹤資料的分量迴歸方法，分析 1980 至 2023 年間 15 個 OECD 國家的資料，探討稅收政策對經濟成長的影響。結果發現，消費稅的調整對經濟成長影響有限，整體變化不大，僅在特定時期呈現順周期現象，可能與其調幅小、且較為漸進式的調整有關。相對而言，資本稅變動則具有較為明顯的順周期特性，經濟成長動力越強勁，其造成的正向效果越大。至於勞動稅的變動，隨著經濟由低成長邁向高成長階段，其影響力會先增強，之後逐漸減弱。概括而言，不同稅制在各種經濟情況下的反應各不相同，顯示稅收政策的效果並非線性，並且其影響程度的變化各有所異。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 1 緒論 1 2 文獻回顧 4 2.1 財政政策的重要性 4 2.2 稅收政策非線性效果 6 3 研究方法 12 3.1 動態追蹤資料 12 3.2動態追蹤資料分量迴歸 15 4 資料與模型 16 4.1模型設定 16 4.2資料 17 5 實證結果 21 5.1 基準模型 21 5.2 債券與失業率 23 5.3政府支出 26 5.4歐盟 29 6 結論與討論 33 參考文獻 40zh_TW
dc.format.extent 733135 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112258008en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 稅收政策zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 非線性zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 分量迴歸zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 稅收政策的非線性效果: 動態追蹤資料分量迴歸之應用zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Nonlinear Effects of Tax Policy: A Dynamic Panel Data Quantile Regression Approachen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文參考文獻 陳彥凱。(2018)。財政整頓的不對稱效果: 追蹤資料分量迴歸之應用。國立政治大學碩士論文。 英文參考文獻 Adnan, W., Arin, K. P., Corakci, A., & Spagnolo, N. (2022). On the heterogeneous effects of tax policy on labor market outcomes. Southern Economic Journal, 88(3), 991-1036. Aiyagari, S. R., Christiano, L. J., & Eichenbaum, M. (1992). The output, employment, and interest rate effects of government consumption. Journal of Monetary Economics, 30(1), 73-86. Alesina, A., & Ardagna, S. (2010). Large changes in fiscal policy: taxes versus spending. Tax Policy and the Economy, 24(1), 35-68. Alesina, A., & Perotti, R. (1995). Fiscal expansions and adjustments in OECD countries. Economic policy, 10(21), 205-248. Alfò, M., Carbonari, L., & Trovato, G. (2023). On the effects of taxation on growth: an empirical assessment. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 27(5), 1289-1318. Anderson, T. W., & Hsiao, C. (1981). Estimation of Dynamic Models with Error Components. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76(375), 598-606. Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and An Application to Employment Equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277-297. Arelleno, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another Look at Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error Component Models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29-51. Arin, K. P., Koray, F., & Spagnolo, N. (2015). Fiscal multipliers in good times and bad times. Journal of Macroeconomics, 44, 303-311. Bachmann, R., & Sims, E. R. (2012). Confidence and the transmission of government spending shocks. Journal of Monetary Economics, 59(3), 235-249. Barro, R. J., & King, R. G. (1984). Time-separable preferences and intertemporal-substitution models of business cycles. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 99(4), 817-839. Barro, R. J., & Redlick, C. J. (2011). Macroeconomic effects from government purchases and taxes. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126(1), 51-102. Baxter, M., & King, R. G. (1993). Fiscal policy in general equilibrium. The American Economic Review, 315-334. Beetsma, R., & Giuliodpri, M., (2011). The effects of government purchase shocks: Review and estimates for the EU. The Economic Journal, 121 (February), 4–32. Biolsi, C. (2017). Nonlinear effects of fiscal policy over the business cycle. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 78, 54-87. Blanchard, O. J., & Leigh, D. (2013). Growth forecast errors and fiscal multipliers. American Economic Review, 103(3), 117-120. Blanchard, O., & Perotti, R. (2002). An empirical characterization of the dynamic effects of changes in government spending and taxes on output. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4), 1329-1368. Bonam, D., De Haan, J., & Soederhuizen, B. (2022). The effects of fiscal policy at the effective lower bound. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 26(1), 149-185. Bonam, D., & Konietschke, P. (2020). Tax multipliers across the business cycle. De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper. Bossie, A. (2020). The asymmetric response of the economy to tax changes before and after 1980. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 51, 101075. Cameron, A. C. & Trivedi, P. K. (2005). Microeconometrics: Methods and Applications. Cambridge University Press: New York, NY, USA. Candelon, B., & Lieb, L. (2013). Fiscal policy in good and bad times. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 37(12), 2679-2694. Canzoneri, M., Collard, F., Dellas, H., & Diba, B. (2016). Fiscal multipliers in recessions. The Economic Journal, 126(590), 75-108. Chahrour, R., Schmitt-Grohé, S., & Uribe, M. (2012). A model-based evaluation of the debate on the size of the tax multiplier. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4(2), 28-45. Christiano, L., Eichenbaum, M., & Rebelo, S. (2011). When is the government spending multiplier large?. Journal of Political Economy, 119(1), 78-121. DeLong, J. Bradford and Summers, Lawrence, (2012), Fiscal policy in a depressed economy, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 43(1), 233-297. Demirel, U. D. (2021). The short-term effects of tax changes: The role of state dependence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 117, 918-934. Eskandari, O. (2019). State-dependent macroeconomic effects of tax changes. Available at SSRN 3374984. Fatás, A., & Summers, L. H. (2018). The permanent effects of fiscal consolidations. Journal of International Economics, 112, 238-250. Ferrara, L., Metelli, L., Natoli, F., & Siena, D. (2021). Questioning the puzzle: fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation. Journal of International Economics, 133, 103524. Fleischhacker, J. (2024). Fiscal policy and the business cycle: An argument for non-linear policy rules. MPRA Paper. Fotiou, A. (2022). Non-linearities in fiscal policy: The role of debt. European Economic Review, 150, 104212. Giavazzi, F., & Pagano, M. (1990). Can severe fiscal contractions be expansionary? Tales of two small European countries. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 5, 75-111. Gomes, F. A. R., Sakurai, S. N., & Soave, G. P. (2022). Government spending multipliers in good times and bad times: The case of emerging markets. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 26(3), 726-768. Guajardo, J., Leigh, D., & Pescatori, A. (2014). Expansionary austerity? International evidence. Journal of the European Economic Association, 12(4), 949-968. Han, Z. (2021). Low-frequency fiscal uncertainty. Journal of Monetary Economics, 117, 639-657. Hussain, S. M., & Malik, S. (2016). Asymmetric effects of exogenous tax changes. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 69, 268-300. Jeong, K. J. (2017). Effects of fiscal consolidation in 18 OECD countries. Seoul Journal of Economics, 30, 51-91. Kenc, T., & Cevik, E. I. (2024). Global corporate tax policy space. Economic Systems, 48(2), 101197. Leeper, E. M., Walker, T. B., & Yang, S. C. S. (2013). Fiscal foresight and information flows. Econometrica, 81(3), 1115-1145. Leus, M. (2021). Impact of fiscal policy on personal consumption expenditures and investments Doctoral Dissertation, Vilniaus Universitetas. Lin, H. Y. (2024). Endogeneity in long panel data quantile regression with an application in fiscal policy. Working paper. Malley, J., & Philippopoulos, A. (2023). The macroeconomic effects of funding US infrastructure. European Economic Review, 152, 104334. Mertens, K., & Ravn, M. O. (2011). Understanding the aggregate effects of anticipated and unanticipated tax policy shocks. Review of Economic Dynamics, 14(1), 27-54. Mertens, K., & Ravn, M. O. (2013). The dynamic effects of personal and corporate income tax changes in the United States. American Economic Review, 103(4), 1212-1247. Michaillat, P. (2014). A theory of countercyclical government multiplier. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 6(1), 190-217. Nguyen, A. D., Onnis, L., & Rossi, R. (2021). The macroeconomic effects of income and consumption tax changes. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 13(2), 439-466. Occhino, F. (2023). The macroeconomic effects of business tax cuts with debt financing and accelerated depreciation. Economic Modelling, 125, 106308. Quoc, T. H. (2023). Essays on state-dependent effects of tax news shocks Doctoral Dissertation, Oklahoma State University. Ramey, V. A. (2011). Can government purchases stimulate the economy?. Journal of Economic Literature, 49(3), 673-685. Romer, C. D., & Romer, D. H. (2010). The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: estimates based on a new measure of fiscal shocks. American Economic Review, 100(3), 763-801. Sims, E., & Wolff, J. (2018). The state-dependent effects of tax shocks. European Economic Review, 107, 57-85. Schuster, S. S., Jaremski, M., & Perlman, B. (2019). An empirical history of the United States postal savings system. NBER Working Paper. Zidar, O. (2019). Tax cuts for whom? Heterogeneous effects of income tax changes on growth and employment. Journal of Political Economy, 127(3), 1437-1472.zh_TW