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題名 稅制誘發的資源錯置與生產力動態：台灣汽車產業實證分析
Tax-induced resource misallocation and productivity dynamics: evidence from the automotive industry in Taiwan
作者 潘怡婷
Pan, Yi-Ting
貢獻者 李文傑<br>王信實
Lee, Wen-Chieh<br>Wang, Shinn-Shyr
潘怡婷
Pan, Yi-Ting
關鍵詞 課稅政策
資源錯置
總要素生產力
汽車產業
綠色產業政策
電動車
關稅影響
Tax policy
Resource misallocation
Total factor productivity
Automotive industry
Green industrial policy
Electric vehicles
Tariff impact
日期 2025
上傳時間 1-Jul-2025 15:35:44 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究探討臺灣2016年「汽車汰舊換新減徵新車貨物稅」政策對汽車產業資源配置效率及廠商層級生產力的影響。稅收優惠政策旨在加速綠色車輛的採用，對產業競爭格局與生產力動態產生影響。透過廠商層級的面板數據與反事實模擬分析，研究發現政策產生雙重效應：一方面促進技術升級與環保車輛的生產，另一方面亦造成資源配置上的顯著扭曲，偏向具備電動車相關能力的廠商。生產電動車或相關零組件的廠商展現較高的資源配置效率，而缺乏相關能力的中小企業則受到不成比例的負面影響，進一步加劇市場不對稱。針對2025年後稅率調整的模擬結果顯示，提高稅負將顯著降低總要素生產力，特別是對固定成本高且適應能力低的廠商影響尤甚。然而，部分廠商因策略性創新或成本調整，展現出在較高稅負下的韌性甚至生產力提升。研究結果凸顯產業升級與資源配置中立性之間的權衡，建議未來稅制與產業政策需兼顧競爭力與公平性，以促進經濟的永續成長。
This study examines the impact of Taiwan's 2016 Vehicle Trade-in Program for Reduced New Car Goods Tax on resource allocation efficiency and firm-level productivity in the automotive industry. Tax incentives aimed at accelerating green vehicle adoption have influenced the sector's competitive landscape and productivity dynamics. Using firm-level panel data and counterfactual simulations, findings reveal a dual effect: the policy promoted technological upgrading and environmentally friendly vehicle production but also generated significant distortions in resource allocation, favoring firms with electric vehicle capabilities. Firms producing electric vehicles or related components demonstrated higher allocative efficiency, whereas small and medium-sized enterprises lacking these capabilities were disproportionately disadvantaged, exacerbating market asymmetries. Simulations of post-2025 tariff scenarios indicate that increased taxation would significantly reduce total factor productivity (TFP), particularly among firms with high fixed costs and low adaptability. However, some firms exhibited resilience or productivity gains under higher tax burdens due to strategic innovations or cost adjustments. These results highlight the trade-off between industrial upgrading and allocative neutrality, suggesting that future tax and industrial policies should balance competitiveness and fairness to promote sustainable economic growth.
參考文獻 Arnold, J. M. and C. Schwellnus (2008). Do Corporate Taxes Reduce Productivity and Investment at the Firm Level?: Cross-Country Evidence from the Amadeus Dataset. Number 19. CEPII. Atkeson, A. and P. Kehoe (2005). Modeling and measuring organization capital. Journal of Political Economy 113(5), 1026–1053. Baldwin, R. E. (1969). The case against infant-industry tariff protection. Journal of political economy 77(3), 295–305. Banerjee, A. V. and E. Duflo (2005). Growth theory through the lens of development economics. Handbook of economic growth 1, 473–552. Basu, S. (1996, 08). Procyclical productivity: Increasing returns or cyclical utilization?*. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 111(3), 719–751. Basu, S. and J. G. Fernald (1995, December). Aggregate productivity and the productivity of aggregates. Working Paper 5382. Basu, S. andM.S.Kimball(1997, February). Cyclical productivity with unobserved input variation. Working Paper 5915. Caselli, F. (2005). Accounting for cross-country income differences. Handbook of eco nomic growth 1, 679–741. Correia, E., M. R. Santos, and L. de Siqueira Lima (2024). Quantifying the impacts of tax distortions on misallocation and productivity. Available at SSRN 4803687. Davis, S. J. and J. Haltiwanger (1992). Gross job creation, gross job destruction, and employment reallocation. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 107(3), 819–863. Dept., I. M. F. F. A. (2017). Fiscal Monitor, April 2017: Achieving More with Less.International Monetary Fund. Diewert, W. E., T. Nakajima, A. Nakamura, E. Nakamura, and M. Nakamura (2011). Returns to scale: concept, estimation and analysis of japan’s turbulent 1964–88 economy.Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d’économique 44(2), 451–485. Dunne, T., M. J. Roberts, and L. Samuelson (1989a). The growth and failure of us manufacturing plants. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 104(4), 671–698. Dunne,T., M.J.Roberts, and L.Samuelson(1989b). Plant turnover and gross employment flows in the us manufacturing sector. journal of Labor Economics 7(1), 48–71. Guo, J.-T., Y. Izumi, and Y.-C. Tsai (2019). Resource misallocation and aggregate productivity under progressive taxation. Journal of Macroeconomics 60, 123–137. Hall, R. E. and C. I. Jones (1999). Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others? The quarterly journal of economics 114(1), 83–116. Harrison, A. and A. Rodríguez-Clare (2010). Trade, foreign investment, and industrial policy for developing countries. Handbook of development economics 5, 4039–4214. Hopenhayn, H. A. (1992). Entry, exit, and firm dynamics in long run equilibrium. Econometrica 60(5), 1127–1150. Hsieh, C.-T. and P. J. Klenow (2009). Misallocation and manufacturing tfp in china and india. The Quarterly journal of economics 124(4), 1403–1448. Jovanovic, B. (1982). Selection and the evolution of industry. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society, 649–670. Klenow, P. J. and A. Rodriguez-Clare (1997). The neoclassical revival in growth economics: Has it gone too far? NBER macroeconomics annual 12, 73–103. Lane, N. (2022). Manufacturing revolutions: Industrial policy and industrialization in south korea. Langenmayr, D., A. Haufler, and C. J. Bauer (2015). Should tax policy favor high-or low-productivity firms? European Economic Review 73, 18–34. Lewis, W. W.(2005). The power of productivity: Wealth, poverty, and the threat to global stability. In The Power of Productivity. University of Chicago Press. Lucas, R. and E. Prescott (1971). Investment under uncertainty. Econometrica 39(5), 659–81. McKinsey, B.(1998). Productivity: The key to an accelerated development path for brazil. Technical report. Pakes, A. and R. Ericson (1998). Empirical implications of alternative models of firm dynamics. Journal of economic theory 79(1), 1–45. Restuccia, D. and R. Rogerson (2008). Policy distortions and aggregate productivity with heterogeneous establishments. Review of Economic dynamics 11(4), 707–720. Rodrik, D. (1995). Getting interventions right: how south korea and taiwan grew rich. Economic policy 10(20), 53–107. Rodrik, D. and C. Sabel (2020). Building a good jobs economy. Harvard Kennedy School, John F. Kennedy School of Government Cambridge. Stigler, G. J. (2021). The theory of economic regulation. In The political economy: Read ings in the politics and economics of American public policy, pp. 67–81. Routledge. Stiglitz, J., J. Lin, and C. Monga (2013). The rejuvenation of industrial policy (policy research working paper 6628). World Bank, Washington. Vartia, L. (2008). How do taxes affect investment and productivity?-an industry-level analysis of oecd countries. OECD Economic Department Working Papers (656), 0_1. Warwick, K. (2013). Beyond industrial policy: Emerging issues and new trends.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
112258031
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112258031
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 李文傑<br>王信實zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lee, Wen-Chieh<br>Wang, Shinn-Shyren_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 潘怡婷zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Pan, Yi-Tingen_US
dc.creator (作者) 潘怡婷zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Pan, Yi-Tingen_US
dc.date (日期) 2025en_US
dc.date.accessioned 1-Jul-2025 15:35:44 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 1-Jul-2025 15:35:44 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Jul-2025 15:35:44 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0112258031en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/157865-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經濟學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 112258031zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究探討臺灣2016年「汽車汰舊換新減徵新車貨物稅」政策對汽車產業資源配置效率及廠商層級生產力的影響。稅收優惠政策旨在加速綠色車輛的採用，對產業競爭格局與生產力動態產生影響。透過廠商層級的面板數據與反事實模擬分析，研究發現政策產生雙重效應：一方面促進技術升級與環保車輛的生產，另一方面亦造成資源配置上的顯著扭曲，偏向具備電動車相關能力的廠商。生產電動車或相關零組件的廠商展現較高的資源配置效率，而缺乏相關能力的中小企業則受到不成比例的負面影響，進一步加劇市場不對稱。針對2025年後稅率調整的模擬結果顯示，提高稅負將顯著降低總要素生產力，特別是對固定成本高且適應能力低的廠商影響尤甚。然而，部分廠商因策略性創新或成本調整，展現出在較高稅負下的韌性甚至生產力提升。研究結果凸顯產業升級與資源配置中立性之間的權衡，建議未來稅制與產業政策需兼顧競爭力與公平性，以促進經濟的永續成長。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study examines the impact of Taiwan's 2016 Vehicle Trade-in Program for Reduced New Car Goods Tax on resource allocation efficiency and firm-level productivity in the automotive industry. Tax incentives aimed at accelerating green vehicle adoption have influenced the sector's competitive landscape and productivity dynamics. Using firm-level panel data and counterfactual simulations, findings reveal a dual effect: the policy promoted technological upgrading and environmentally friendly vehicle production but also generated significant distortions in resource allocation, favoring firms with electric vehicle capabilities. Firms producing electric vehicles or related components demonstrated higher allocative efficiency, whereas small and medium-sized enterprises lacking these capabilities were disproportionately disadvantaged, exacerbating market asymmetries. Simulations of post-2025 tariff scenarios indicate that increased taxation would significantly reduce total factor productivity (TFP), particularly among firms with high fixed costs and low adaptability. However, some firms exhibited resilience or productivity gains under higher tax burdens due to strategic innovations or cost adjustments. These results highlight the trade-off between industrial upgrading and allocative neutrality, suggesting that future tax and industrial policies should balance competitiveness and fairness to promote sustainable economic growth.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 1 Introduction 1 2 Literature 4 2.1 Theory of Heterogeneous Producers 4 2.2 Misallocation and Its Economic Impacts 4 2.3 Impacts of Resource Misallocation on Industrial Productivity 5 2.4 Industrial Policy and Economic Development 6 2.4.1 Theoretical Perspectives on Industrial Policy 7 2.4.2 Empirical Evidence and Cross-Country Comparisons 7 2.4.3 The Relationship Between Industrial Policy and Productivity 8 2.5 Cross-Country Evidence on the Impact of Tax Policy 8 3 Model 10 4 Data 18 4.1 Institution 18 4.2 Industry Structure 19 4.3 Data Sources 21 4.4 Data Collection and Explanation 21 5 Results 24 5.1 Degree of Resource Misallocation after Policy Implementation 24 5.1.1 Parameters 24 5.1.2 The resource allocation efficiency and distortion degree of the entire industry after the policy implementation 25 5.1.3 Resource Allocation Efficiency and Distortion Degree of Firms with Above-Average Market Share After Policy Implementation 27 5.2 Hypothetical Scenario of Non-Implementation of the Policy 31 5.2.1 Simulation of Non-Implementation of the Policy 31 5.2.2 Comparison of Differences Before and After Policy Implementation 32 5.3 The Impact of Tariffs on Productivity 36 6 Conclusion 40 Appendix 42 Appendix I: Distortions and Efficiency Changes Caused by Different Shocks 42 Appendix II: Potential Causes of Events Leading to Tariff-Induced Productivity Decline 47 Reference 49zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1268326 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112258031en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 課稅政策zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 資源錯置zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 總要素生產力zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 汽車產業zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 綠色產業政策zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 電動車zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 關稅影響zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Tax policyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Resource misallocationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Total factor productivityen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Automotive industryen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Green industrial policyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Electric vehiclesen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Tariff impacten_US
dc.title (題名) 稅制誘發的資源錯置與生產力動態：台灣汽車產業實證分析zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Tax-induced resource misallocation and productivity dynamics: evidence from the automotive industry in Taiwanen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Arnold, J. M. and C. Schwellnus (2008). Do Corporate Taxes Reduce Productivity and Investment at the Firm Level?: Cross-Country Evidence from the Amadeus Dataset. Number 19. CEPII. Atkeson, A. and P. Kehoe (2005). Modeling and measuring organization capital. Journal of Political Economy 113(5), 1026–1053. Baldwin, R. E. (1969). The case against infant-industry tariff protection. Journal of political economy 77(3), 295–305. Banerjee, A. V. and E. Duflo (2005). Growth theory through the lens of development economics. Handbook of economic growth 1, 473–552. Basu, S. (1996, 08). Procyclical productivity: Increasing returns or cyclical utilization?*. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 111(3), 719–751. Basu, S. and J. G. Fernald (1995, December). Aggregate productivity and the productivity of aggregates. Working Paper 5382. Basu, S. andM.S.Kimball(1997, February). Cyclical productivity with unobserved input variation. Working Paper 5915. Caselli, F. (2005). Accounting for cross-country income differences. Handbook of eco nomic growth 1, 679–741. Correia, E., M. R. Santos, and L. de Siqueira Lima (2024). Quantifying the impacts of tax distortions on misallocation and productivity. Available at SSRN 4803687. Davis, S. J. and J. Haltiwanger (1992). Gross job creation, gross job destruction, and employment reallocation. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 107(3), 819–863. Dept., I. M. F. F. A. (2017). Fiscal Monitor, April 2017: Achieving More with Less.International Monetary Fund. Diewert, W. E., T. Nakajima, A. Nakamura, E. Nakamura, and M. Nakamura (2011). Returns to scale: concept, estimation and analysis of japan’s turbulent 1964–88 economy.Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d’économique 44(2), 451–485. Dunne, T., M. J. Roberts, and L. Samuelson (1989a). The growth and failure of us manufacturing plants. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 104(4), 671–698. Dunne,T., M.J.Roberts, and L.Samuelson(1989b). Plant turnover and gross employment flows in the us manufacturing sector. journal of Labor Economics 7(1), 48–71. Guo, J.-T., Y. Izumi, and Y.-C. Tsai (2019). Resource misallocation and aggregate productivity under progressive taxation. Journal of Macroeconomics 60, 123–137. Hall, R. E. and C. I. Jones (1999). Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others? The quarterly journal of economics 114(1), 83–116. Harrison, A. and A. Rodríguez-Clare (2010). Trade, foreign investment, and industrial policy for developing countries. Handbook of development economics 5, 4039–4214. Hopenhayn, H. A. (1992). Entry, exit, and firm dynamics in long run equilibrium. Econometrica 60(5), 1127–1150. Hsieh, C.-T. and P. J. Klenow (2009). Misallocation and manufacturing tfp in china and india. The Quarterly journal of economics 124(4), 1403–1448. Jovanovic, B. (1982). Selection and the evolution of industry. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society, 649–670. Klenow, P. J. and A. Rodriguez-Clare (1997). The neoclassical revival in growth economics: Has it gone too far? NBER macroeconomics annual 12, 73–103. Lane, N. (2022). Manufacturing revolutions: Industrial policy and industrialization in south korea. Langenmayr, D., A. Haufler, and C. J. Bauer (2015). Should tax policy favor high-or low-productivity firms? European Economic Review 73, 18–34. Lewis, W. W.(2005). The power of productivity: Wealth, poverty, and the threat to global stability. In The Power of Productivity. University of Chicago Press. Lucas, R. and E. Prescott (1971). Investment under uncertainty. Econometrica 39(5), 659–81. McKinsey, B.(1998). Productivity: The key to an accelerated development path for brazil. Technical report. Pakes, A. and R. Ericson (1998). Empirical implications of alternative models of firm dynamics. Journal of economic theory 79(1), 1–45. Restuccia, D. and R. Rogerson (2008). Policy distortions and aggregate productivity with heterogeneous establishments. Review of Economic dynamics 11(4), 707–720. Rodrik, D. (1995). Getting interventions right: how south korea and taiwan grew rich. Economic policy 10(20), 53–107. Rodrik, D. and C. Sabel (2020). Building a good jobs economy. Harvard Kennedy School, John F. Kennedy School of Government Cambridge. Stigler, G. J. (2021). The theory of economic regulation. In The political economy: Read ings in the politics and economics of American public policy, pp. 67–81. Routledge. Stiglitz, J., J. Lin, and C. Monga (2013). The rejuvenation of industrial policy (policy research working paper 6628). World Bank, Washington. Vartia, L. (2008). How do taxes affect investment and productivity?-an industry-level analysis of oecd countries. OECD Economic Department Working Papers (656), 0_1. Warwick, K. (2013). Beyond industrial policy: Emerging issues and new trends.zh_TW