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題名 「中國加一政策」如何影響美國企業在EMS與非EMS產業的獲利能力
How have China Plus One Policy affected the profitability of U.S. firms between EMS and non-EMS industry作者 曹孝萱
Tsao, Hsiao-Hsuan貢獻者 徐愛恩
Tsui, Stephanie
曹孝萱
Tsao, Hsiao-Hsuan關鍵詞 「中國+1」政策
中美貿易戰
電子代工產業
獲利能力
關稅政策
China Plus One
U.S.–China Trade War
EMS Industry
Profitability
Tariff Policy日期 2025 上傳時間 4-Aug-2025 12:54:58 (UTC+8) 摘要 本研究探討2018年美中關稅政策對美國企業獲利能力的影響，聚焦於電子製造服務（EMS）產業與非EMS產業。透過分析2013至2024年間168家美國上市公司的縱橫資料，針對資產報酬率（ROA）與股東權益報酬率（ROE）進行迴歸分析。結果顯示，2018年後ROA明顯下滑，反映政策整體帶來負面影響。然而，EMS與非EMS產業之間並未呈現顯著差異，顯示產業層級的政策曝險並非決定獲利下滑的主因。本研究強調企業層級的應變能力，並對政策脆弱性以產業結構劃分的假設提出質疑。
This study examines how the 2018 U.S.–China tariff policy affected the profitability of U.S. firms, focusing on Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) and non-EMS industries. Using panel data from 168 publicly listed firms (2013–2024), regression analysis was conducted on ROA and ROE. Results show a significant decline in ROA after 2018, indicating overall negative policy impact. However, no significant difference was found between EMS and non-EMS firms, suggesting that industry-level exposure did not determine profitability loss. The findings highlight the importance of firm-level adaptability and challenge assumptions about structural policy vulnerability.參考文獻 Allen, G. C. (2024). Choking off China’s access to the future of AI. https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai Alarussi, A. S., & Alhaderi, S. M. (2018). Factors affecting profitability in Malaysia. Journal of Economic Studies, 45(3), 442–458. https://doi.org/10.1108/jes-05-2017-0124 Andreß, H. (2017). The need for and use of panel data. IZA World of Labor. https://doi.org/10.15185/izawol.352 Babalola, Y. A. (2013). The effect of firm size on firms profitability in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(5), 90–94. https://www.iiste.org/Journals/index.php/JEDS/article/download/4857/4935 Basu, P., & Ray, P. (2021). China-plus-one: expanding global value chains. Journal of Business Strategy, 43(6), 350–356. https://doi.org/10.1108/jbs-04-2021-0066 Bown, C. P. (2021). The US–China trade war and Phase One agreement. Journal of Policy Modeling, 43(4), 805–843. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2021.02.009 Chandren, S., Ahmad, A. C., & Nadarajan, S. (2018). Operating Performance analysis and goods service tax implementation in Malaysia. International Journal of Supply Chain Management, 7(3), 38–41. https://ojs.excelingtech.co.uk/index.php/IJSCM/article/download/2149/1078 Cherney, M. A. (2025, April 15). Exclusive: US tariffs may cost chip equipment makers more than $1 billion, industry estimates. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-tariffs-may-cost-chip-equipment-makers-more-than-1-billion-industry-estimates-2025-04-15/ Christopher, M. (2016). Logistics & Supply chain Management (Fifth Edition). Pearson Education Limited. https://api.pageplace.de/preview/DT0400.9781292083810_A26571390/preview-9781292083810_A26571390.pdf Caffrey, S. (2015, September 17). 3 principles of economies of scale and how they apply to EMS. EMS1. https://www.ems1.com/paramedic-chief/articles/3-principles-of-economies-of-scale-and-how-they-apply-to-ems-pJUP9mvDC9emcnmn/ City of Milwaukee. (2018). Foxconn company profile: An overview of the Foxconn Technology Group plans for Wisconsin operations. https://city.milwaukee.gov/ImageLibrary/Groups/ccCouncil/District-4-Bauman/PDFs/Foxconn_Company_Profile.pdf CNN Business. (2025, April 16). Nvidia, caught in the US-China trade war, takes a $5.5 billion hit. CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/16/tech/nvidia-plunge-h20-chip-china-export-intl-hnk/index.html:contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1} Colon, C., & Hochrainer-Stigler, S. (2022). Systemic risks in supply chains: a need for system-level governance. Supply Chain Management an International Journal, 28(4), 682–694. https://doi.org/10.1108/scm-03-2022-0101 Fajgelbaum, P. D., & Khandelwal, A. K. (2022). The economic impacts of the US–China trade war. Annual Review of Economics, 14(1), 205–228. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-051420-110410 Folgo, E. J. (2008). Accelerating time-to-market in the global electronics industry. https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/43827 Funke, M., & Wende, A. (2021). The US-China Phase One Trade Deal: An Economic analysis of the Managed Trade Agreement. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3807008 Gereffi, G., Lim, H., & Lee, J. (2021). Trade policies, firm strategies, and adaptive reconfigurations of global value chains. Journal of International Business Policy, 4(4), 506–522. https://doi.org/10.1057/s42214-021-00102-z Heikal, M., Khaddafi, M., & Ummah, A. (2014). Influence Analysis of Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), Net Profit Margin (NPM), Debt To Equity Ratio (DER), and current ratio (CR), Against Corporate Profit Growth In Automotive In Indonesia Stock Exchange. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 4(12). https://doi.org/10.6007/ijarbss/v4-i12/1331 Hejazi, W., & Blum, B. (2023, June 27). What makes China so attractive to manufacturers? World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2023/06/what-makes-china-major-manufacturing-hub/ Hoang, T. V. H., Dang, N. H., Tran, M. D., Van Vu, T. T., & Pham, Q. T. (2019). Determinants influencing financial performance of listed firms: Quantile Regression approach. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 9(1), 78–90. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.aefr.2019.91.78.90 Huang, Y., Lin, C., Liu, S., & Tang, H. (2023). Trade networks and firm value: Evidence from the U.S.-China trade war. Journal of International Economics, 145, 103811. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103811 IBISWorld. 2023. U.S. tariffs. https://www.ibisworld.com/blog/us-tariffs/1/1127/ International Labour Organization. (2020). Promoting decent work and inclusive growth in the ASEAN region. International Labour Organization. https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/wcmsp5/groups/public/@asia/@ro-bangkok/documents/projectdocumentation/wcms_865462.pdf Invention, J., & Mohamed, M. K. T. (2015). The effect of capital structure on profitability of energy American firms. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.1299309.v1 Itakura, K. (2019). Evaluating the impact of the US–China trade war. Asian Economic Policy Review, 15(1), 77–93. https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12286 Kapustina, L., Lipková, Ľ., Silin, Y., & Drevalev, A. (2020). US-China trade war: causes and outcomes. SHS Web of Conferences, 73, 01012. https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20207301012 Kwan, C. H. (2019). The China–US trade War: Deep‐Rooted causes, shifting focus and uncertain prospects. Asian Economic Policy Review, 15(1), 55–72. https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12284 Kouvelis, P., & Su, P. (2007). The structure of global supply chains. https://ci.nii.ac.jp/ncid/BA87099292 Li, H. J., Tan, K. H., & Hida, A. (2011). Sustaining growth in electronic manufacturing sector: lessons from Japanese mid-size EMS providers. International Journal of Production Research, 49(18), 5415–5430. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2011.563897 Maximize Market Research. (2024). Global electronics manufacturing services market. https://www.maximizemarketresearch.com/market-report/global-electronics-manufacturing-services-market/112137/ Ngo, V. T., Tram, T. X. H., & Vu, B. T. (2020). The Impact of Debt on Corporate Profitability: Evidence from Vietnam. Journal of Asian Finance Economics and Business, 7(11), 835–842. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no11.835 Notice of Modification of Section 301 Action: China’s Acts, policies, and practices related to technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation. (2019, May 9). Federal Register. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/05/09/2019-09681/notice-of-modification-of-section-301-action-chinas-acts-policies-and-practices-related-to Obaji, N. O. (2014). The role of government policy in entrepreneurship development. Science Journal of Business and Management, 2(4), 109. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjbm.20140204.12 Osnago, A., Piermartini, R., & Rocha, N. (2015). Trade policy uncertainty as barrier to trade. In World Trade Organization (WTO), WTO Staff Working Paper (No. ERSD-2015-05). World Trade Organization (WTO). https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/110980/1/827507526.pdf Petricevic, O., & Teece, D. J. (2019). The structural reshaping of globalization: Implications for strategic sectors, profiting from innovation, and the multinational enterprise. Journal of International Business Studies, 50(9), 1487–1512. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41267-019-00269-x Pound, J. (2025, April 29). Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week as China tariffs start to bite. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/29/port-of-los-angeles-sees-shipping-volume-down-35percent-next-week-as-tariffs-bite.html Prologis. (2025, April 23). Trade in flux: What global shifts mean for U.S. logistics real estate. https://www.prologis.com/insights/global-insights-research/trade-flux-what-global-shifts-mean-us-logistics-real-estate Shih, Y., Liu, M., & Lin, C. (2025). Supply-chain restructuring using the “China-plus-one” strategy: the push–pull–mooring perspective. International Journal of Emerging Markets. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijoem-11-2023-1900 S, S., & Machali, M. (2017). The Effect of Asset Structure and Firm Size on Firm Value with Capital Structure as Intervening Variable. Journal of Business & Financial Affairs, 06(04). https://doi.org/10.4172/2167-0234.1000298 Snider, A. (2024b, December 5). Using stock returns to assess the aggregate effect of the U.S.-China trade war - Liberty Street Economics. Liberty Street Economics. https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2024/12/using-stock-returns-to-assess-the-aggregate-effect-of-the-u-s-china-trade-war/ The rise of services in the US economy | FRED Blog. (n.d.). https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2024/07/the-rise-of-services-in-the-us-economy/ The White House. (2025, February 2). Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Imposes Tariffs on Imports from Canada, Mexico and China. https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/ The White House. (2025b, March 3). Further Amendment to Duties Addressing the Synthetic Opioid Supply Chain in the People’s Republic of China. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/further-amendment-to-duties-addressing-the-synthetic-opioid-supply-chain-in-the-peoples-republic-of-china/ Trade war costs to consumers, companies and nations - CME Group. (n.d.). https://www.cmegroup.com/education/featured-reports/trade-war-costs-to-consumers-companies-and-nations.html Wagner, S. M., & Neshat, N. (2011). A comparison of supply chain vulnerability indices for different categories of firms. International Journal of Production Research, 50(11), 2877–2891. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2011.561540 Visual Capitalist. 2023. Visualizing U.S. GDP by Industry in 2023. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-u-s-gdp-by-industry-in-2023/ Weiss, M., DEPARTMENT OF POLICY, RESEARCH AND STATISTICS, & UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION. (2016). THE ROLE OF LOCAL CONTENT POLICIES IN MANUFACTURING AND MINING IN LOW- AND MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES. In Inclusive and Sustainable Industrial Development Working Paper Series. https://www.unido.org/sites/default/files/2017-01/UNIDO_Working_paper_Local_content_policies_FINAL_15803__0.pdf Witkowski, P. (2022). The concept of using the excess rate of return in the study of the impact of EU ETS on the value of enterprises. Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, 2022(2), 72–93. https://doi.org/10.7172/2353-6845.jbfe.2022.2.6 York, E. (2025, April 18). Trump Tariffs: The economic impact of the Trump Trade War. Tax Foundation. https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/ Zhu, G., Chou, M. C., & Tsai, C. W. (2020). Lessons Learned from the COVID-19 Pandemic Exposing the Shortcomings of Current Supply Chain Operations: A Long-Term Prescriptive Offering. Sustainability, 12(14), 5858. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12145858 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程(IMBA)
112933015資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112933015 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 徐愛恩 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Tsui, Stephanie en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 曹孝萱 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Tsao, Hsiao-Hsuan en_US dc.creator (作者) 曹孝萱 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Tsao, Hsiao-Hsuan en_US dc.date (日期) 2025 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-Aug-2025 12:54:58 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-Aug-2025 12:54:58 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Aug-2025 12:54:58 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0112933015 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/158296 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程(IMBA) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 112933015 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究探討2018年美中關稅政策對美國企業獲利能力的影響，聚焦於電子製造服務（EMS）產業與非EMS產業。透過分析2013至2024年間168家美國上市公司的縱橫資料，針對資產報酬率（ROA）與股東權益報酬率（ROE）進行迴歸分析。結果顯示，2018年後ROA明顯下滑，反映政策整體帶來負面影響。然而，EMS與非EMS產業之間並未呈現顯著差異，顯示產業層級的政策曝險並非決定獲利下滑的主因。本研究強調企業層級的應變能力，並對政策脆弱性以產業結構劃分的假設提出質疑。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study examines how the 2018 U.S.–China tariff policy affected the profitability of U.S. firms, focusing on Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) and non-EMS industries. Using panel data from 168 publicly listed firms (2013–2024), regression analysis was conducted on ROA and ROE. Results show a significant decline in ROA after 2018, indicating overall negative policy impact. However, no significant difference was found between EMS and non-EMS firms, suggesting that industry-level exposure did not determine profitability loss. The findings highlight the importance of firm-level adaptability and challenge assumptions about structural policy vulnerability. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 1. Introduction 1.1 Research Background and Motivation 1 1.2 Research Question and Research Objective 2 1.3 Theoretical Framework and Hypotheses Development 2 1.4 Research Design and Method Summary 3 1.5 Summary of Main Findings 5 1.6 Contribution to Literature 6 2. Literature Review 2.1 Global Supply Chain Restructuring and Policy Changes 8 2.1.1 Overview of the Global Manufacturing Supply Chain Structure 8 2.1.2 Impacts of the U.S.-China Trade War 9 2.1.3 Concept, Development, and Application of the China Plus One Strategy 10 2.2 Different Characteristics and Vulnerability between EMS and Non-EMS Industry Characteristics 12 2.2.1 Characteristics of the Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) Industry 12 2.2.2 Empirical Impacts of Policy Changes on EMS vs. non-EMS 13 2.2.3 Characteristics of Non-EMS Industries 15 2.3 Empirical Research on the Impact of Similar Policy Changes on Businesses 16 2.4 Hypotheses 17 3. Research Methodology 3.1 Research Design 20 3.2 Data Collection 21 3.3 Variable Definition and Operationalization 22 3.3.1 Dependent Variables 22 3.3.2 Independent Variable 23 3.3.3 Grouping Variable 23 3.3.4 Control Variables 24 3.4 Data Analysis Method 25 4. Data Analysis and Result 4.1 Descriptive Statistics and Sample Overview 30 4.2 Visual Analysis 30 4.3 Regression Results (ROA) 32 4.4 Regression Results (ROE) 35 4.4.1 ROE Regression (Original Distribution) 35 4.4.2 ROE Regression (Winsorized) 36 4.5 Summary of Key Findings 39 5. Conclusion and Limitations 5.1 Interpretation of Key Findings 41 5.1.1 Interpretation of Results Relative to Hypotheses 41 5.1.2 Implications of Sectoral Differences (EMS vs. non-EMS) 42 5.1.3 Alignment and Contrast with Prior Literature 42 5.1.4 Unintended Consequences of the Policy 43 5.2 Research Limitations 43 5.2.1 Data Limitations 43 5.2.2 Methodological Constraints 44 5.2.3 Dataset and Variable Limitations 44 5.3 Suggestions for Future Research 45 5.3.1 Analytical Extensions 45 5.3.2 Sectoral and Geographic Expansion 45 5.3.3 Qualitative Evidence 46 5.4 Concluding Remarks 46 6. Reference 48 7. Appendix 53 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1843994 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112933015 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 「中國+1」政策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中美貿易戰 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 電子代工產業 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 獲利能力 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 關稅政策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) China Plus One en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) U.S.–China Trade War en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) EMS Industry en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Profitability en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Tariff Policy en_US dc.title (題名) 「中國加一政策」如何影響美國企業在EMS與非EMS產業的獲利能力 zh_TW dc.title (題名) How have China Plus One Policy affected the profitability of U.S. firms between EMS and non-EMS industry en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Allen, G. C. (2024). Choking off China’s access to the future of AI. https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai Alarussi, A. S., & Alhaderi, S. M. (2018). Factors affecting profitability in Malaysia. Journal of Economic Studies, 45(3), 442–458. https://doi.org/10.1108/jes-05-2017-0124 Andreß, H. (2017). The need for and use of panel data. IZA World of Labor. https://doi.org/10.15185/izawol.352 Babalola, Y. A. (2013). The effect of firm size on firms profitability in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(5), 90–94. https://www.iiste.org/Journals/index.php/JEDS/article/download/4857/4935 Basu, P., & Ray, P. (2021). China-plus-one: expanding global value chains. Journal of Business Strategy, 43(6), 350–356. https://doi.org/10.1108/jbs-04-2021-0066 Bown, C. P. (2021). The US–China trade war and Phase One agreement. Journal of Policy Modeling, 43(4), 805–843. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2021.02.009 Chandren, S., Ahmad, A. C., & Nadarajan, S. (2018). Operating Performance analysis and goods service tax implementation in Malaysia. International Journal of Supply Chain Management, 7(3), 38–41. https://ojs.excelingtech.co.uk/index.php/IJSCM/article/download/2149/1078 Cherney, M. A. (2025, April 15). Exclusive: US tariffs may cost chip equipment makers more than $1 billion, industry estimates. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-tariffs-may-cost-chip-equipment-makers-more-than-1-billion-industry-estimates-2025-04-15/ Christopher, M. (2016). Logistics & Supply chain Management (Fifth Edition). Pearson Education Limited. https://api.pageplace.de/preview/DT0400.9781292083810_A26571390/preview-9781292083810_A26571390.pdf Caffrey, S. (2015, September 17). 3 principles of economies of scale and how they apply to EMS. EMS1. https://www.ems1.com/paramedic-chief/articles/3-principles-of-economies-of-scale-and-how-they-apply-to-ems-pJUP9mvDC9emcnmn/ City of Milwaukee. (2018). Foxconn company profile: An overview of the Foxconn Technology Group plans for Wisconsin operations. https://city.milwaukee.gov/ImageLibrary/Groups/ccCouncil/District-4-Bauman/PDFs/Foxconn_Company_Profile.pdf CNN Business. (2025, April 16). Nvidia, caught in the US-China trade war, takes a $5.5 billion hit. CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/16/tech/nvidia-plunge-h20-chip-china-export-intl-hnk/index.html:contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1} Colon, C., & Hochrainer-Stigler, S. (2022). Systemic risks in supply chains: a need for system-level governance. Supply Chain Management an International Journal, 28(4), 682–694. https://doi.org/10.1108/scm-03-2022-0101 Fajgelbaum, P. D., & Khandelwal, A. K. (2022). The economic impacts of the US–China trade war. Annual Review of Economics, 14(1), 205–228. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-051420-110410 Folgo, E. J. (2008). Accelerating time-to-market in the global electronics industry. https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/43827 Funke, M., & Wende, A. (2021). The US-China Phase One Trade Deal: An Economic analysis of the Managed Trade Agreement. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3807008 Gereffi, G., Lim, H., & Lee, J. (2021). Trade policies, firm strategies, and adaptive reconfigurations of global value chains. Journal of International Business Policy, 4(4), 506–522. https://doi.org/10.1057/s42214-021-00102-z Heikal, M., Khaddafi, M., & Ummah, A. (2014). Influence Analysis of Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), Net Profit Margin (NPM), Debt To Equity Ratio (DER), and current ratio (CR), Against Corporate Profit Growth In Automotive In Indonesia Stock Exchange. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 4(12). https://doi.org/10.6007/ijarbss/v4-i12/1331 Hejazi, W., & Blum, B. (2023, June 27). What makes China so attractive to manufacturers? 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