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題名 在瓜地馬拉開發經濟適用房的財務評估
Financial Evaluation on Affordable Housing Development in Guatemala
作者 斐迪南
Molina, Jose Fernando Garcia
貢獻者 蔡政憲
Jason Tsai
斐迪南
Jose Fernando Garcia Molina
關鍵詞 開發經濟適用
財務評估
房地產
瓜地馬拉
財務建模
Affordable Housing
Financial Evaluation
Real Estate
Guatemala
Financial Modeling
日期 2025
上傳時間 4-Aug-2025 12:55:10 (UTC+8)
摘要 瓜地馬拉城人口年輕且成長迅速，同時伴隨嚴重的住房短缺。因此，對新住宅房地產開發的需求強勁。本論文旨在探討房地產開發商如何運用基本金融概念和金融模式來評估瓜地馬拉城經濟適用房的垂直商業機會。為此，本研究對瓜地馬拉城一個假設但具有代表性的經濟適用房計畫進行了投資分析。研究結果強調了影響此類專案吸引力的關鍵因素，並為小型開發商提供了確保專案成功開發的建議。
Guatemala City has a young and rapidly growing population, accompanied by a significant housing deficit. As a result, there is a strong demand for new residential real estate developments. This thesis aims to explore how a real estate developer should evaluate affordable vertical housing business opportunities in Guatemala City by applying fundamental finance concepts and financial modeling. To do this, the study conducts an investment analysis of a hypothetical yet representative affordable housing project in Guatemala City. The findings highlight key factors that influence the attractiveness of such projects and identify recommendations for small developers to ensure successful project development.
參考文獻 [1] INE, National Institute of Statistics Guatemala, "National Population projections 1950-2050," 01 March 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.ine.gob.gt/proyecciones/. [2] SEGEPLAN, Secretariat of Planning and Programming of the Presidency, "6.2 Demographic Bonus," 2024 January 2024. [Online]. Available: https://mail.vicepresidencia.gob.gt/politica-gobierno-2024-2028/62-bono-demografico. [3] INE, National Institute of Statistics Guatemala, "National Household Income and Expenditure Survey," 09 December 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.ine.gob.gt/enigh/. [4] INE, National Institute of Statistics Guatemala, "Departmental population projections 2010-2050," 01 March 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.ine.gob.gt/proyecciones/. [5] ANACOVI, National Asociation of home builders, "Housing deficit international estadarization," 01 December 2021. [Online]. Available: https://anacovi.gt/deficit-vivienda-guatemala-propuesta-estandarizacion-internacional/. [6] A. L. Gonzales, "Vertical growth is an unstoppable phenomenon," Prensa Libre, pp. 6-9, 03 March 2025. [7] Banco Industrial, "Current Real Estate Listings Map," 03 March 2025. [Online]. Available: https://blog.corporacionbi.com/bi-vienda-en-linea-banco-industrial. [8] World Population Review, "Affordable Housing by Country," 10 03 2025. [Online]. Available: https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/affordable-housing-by-country. [9] INFONAVIT, Mexico, "Information Infonativit," 01 March 2025. [Online]. Available: https://infonavitfacil.mx/. [10] TECON, "Modular Formwork," 01 January 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.teconform.com/products/modular-formwork/. [11] DEMA Formwork, "What is The Tunnel Form System?," 01 January 2025. [Online]. Available: http://tunnel-formwork.com/icerik/what-is-the-tunnel-form-system. [12] BVN, Guatemala Stock Exchange, "Yield Curve GTQ," 07 03 2025. [Online]. Available: 2025. [13] S. C. M. F. A. Richard A. Brealey, Principles of Corporate Finance, 13th edition, New York: MC Grow Hill Education, 2020. [14] P. D. Jonathan Berk, Corporate Finance, 5th Edition, London: Pearson Education, 2020. [15] Cambridge Dictionary, "forecasting Definition," 01 January 2025. [Online]. Available: https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/forecasting. [16] CFI, Corporate Finance Institute, Financial Modeling Guidelines, Vancuber: Corporate Finance Institute, 2022. [17] INE, National Institute of Statistics Guatemala, "Municipal Population projections 2015-2035," 01 March 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.ine.gob.gt/proyecciones/. [18] FUNDESA, Fundation for the development of Guatemala, "Local Competitive Index," 01 June 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.fundesa.org.gt/indices-y-evaluaciones-de-pais/indice-de-competitividad-local. [19] UNFPA, United Nations Population Fund, "Demographic Dividend," 01 March 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.unfpa.org/demographic-dividend#0. [20] FHA, Insured Mortgage Fund of Guatemala, "My first house requirements," 05 March 2025. [Online]. Available: https://miprimeracasa.gob.gt/. [21] INE, National Institute of Statistics Guatemala, "Monthly Index of Construction Materials January 2025," 30 January 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.ine.gob.gt/indice-de-materiales-de-construccion/. [22] A. Damodaran, "Country Risk Premium," 31 January 2025. [Online]. Available: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html. [23] A. Damodaran, "Industry Betas," 31 January 2025. [Online]. Available: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/Betas.html.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程(IMBA)
112933034
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112933034
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 蔡政憲zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Jason Tsaien_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 斐迪南zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Jose Fernando Garcia Molinaen_US
dc.creator (作者) 斐迪南zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Molina, Jose Fernando Garciaen_US
dc.date (日期) 2025en_US
dc.date.accessioned 4-Aug-2025 12:55:10 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 4-Aug-2025 12:55:10 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Aug-2025 12:55:10 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0112933034en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/158297-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程(IMBA)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 112933034zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 瓜地馬拉城人口年輕且成長迅速，同時伴隨嚴重的住房短缺。因此，對新住宅房地產開發的需求強勁。本論文旨在探討房地產開發商如何運用基本金融概念和金融模式來評估瓜地馬拉城經濟適用房的垂直商業機會。為此，本研究對瓜地馬拉城一個假設但具有代表性的經濟適用房計畫進行了投資分析。研究結果強調了影響此類專案吸引力的關鍵因素，並為小型開發商提供了確保專案成功開發的建議。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Guatemala City has a young and rapidly growing population, accompanied by a significant housing deficit. As a result, there is a strong demand for new residential real estate developments. This thesis aims to explore how a real estate developer should evaluate affordable vertical housing business opportunities in Guatemala City by applying fundamental finance concepts and financial modeling. To do this, the study conducts an investment analysis of a hypothetical yet representative affordable housing project in Guatemala City. The findings highlight key factors that influence the attractiveness of such projects and identify recommendations for small developers to ensure successful project development.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 1. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Overview of Guatemala and Guatemala City 1 1.2 The Housing Market in Guatemala City 3 2. BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY IN THE MARKET 10 2.1 Research Limitations 10 2.2 Technical Note on the Project Assumptions 12 2.2.1 Modular Formwork 12 2.2.1.1 Tunnel Form Construction 13 2.3 Layout of the Business Opportunity 14 3. METHODS TO EVALUATE THE FINANCIAL INVESTMENT 20 3.1 Profitability Measures 20 3.1.1 ROE - Return on Equity 20 3.1.2 IRR – Internal Rate of Return 20 3.1.3 NPV – Net Present Value 21 3.1.4 Total Return and Final Cash Payment 23 3.2 Liquidity and Cash Requirements 23 3.2.1 Transaction Balance and Precautionary Balance 24 3.3 Project Finance Models (Complex Cash Flows) 26 3.3.1 CFI Standards for Financial Modeling 27 4. FINANCIAL MODEL AND VALUATION OF THE PROJECT 29 4.1 Main Assumptions 29 4.1.1 Technical Inputs 30 4.1.1.1 Project Size 30 4.1.1.2 Project Area 31 4.1.1.3 Schedules 32 4.1.2 Sales and Commercialization 34 4.1.3 Cost 35 4.1.3.1 Land 35 4.1.3.2 Studies and Permits 36 4.1.4 Construction 36 4.1.5 Administration, Legal, and Insurance 37 4.1.6 Contingencies 39 4.1.7 Other Inputs 39 4.1.8 Capital Structure 39 4.2 Financial Model Build-Up 40 4.2.1 Uses of resources 40 4.2.2 Sources of resources 41 4.2.2.1 Cost of Equity 42 4.2.3 P&L and BS 44 4.3 Dashboard 44 4.4 Valuation of real options of the project 45 4.5 Limitations of the Method 46 5. RISKS 46 5.1 Market Risk 46 5.2 Construction Risk 47 5.3 Regulatory and Legal Risk 47 5.4 Financial Risks 48 5.5 Political and Macroeconomic Risks 48 5.6 Social and Reputational Risks 48 5.7 Operational and Management Risks 49 6. SCENARIO ANALYSIS 50 6.1 Comparison Between Scenario One and Two 50 6.2 Recommendation of Scenario Selection 51 6.3 Expected Profitability 53 7. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 54 7.1 Sales 54 7.2 Land 55 7.3 Development 55 7.4 Profitability 56 REFERENCES 57 APPENDIX 59 A. House Affordability list by country 2023 59 B. Studies and Permits Required for Construction 62 C. Financial Model Scenario 1 – Two Towers 65 D. Financial Model Scenario 2 – Four Towers 68zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112933034en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 開發經濟適用zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 財務評估zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房地產zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 瓜地馬拉zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 財務建模zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Affordable Housingen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Financial Evaluationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Real Estateen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Guatemalaen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Financial Modelingen_US
dc.title (題名) 在瓜地馬拉開發經濟適用房的財務評估zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Financial Evaluation on Affordable Housing Development in Guatemalaen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [1] INE, National Institute of Statistics Guatemala, "National Population projections 1950-2050," 01 March 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.ine.gob.gt/proyecciones/. [2] SEGEPLAN, Secretariat of Planning and Programming of the Presidency, "6.2 Demographic Bonus," 2024 January 2024. [Online]. Available: https://mail.vicepresidencia.gob.gt/politica-gobierno-2024-2028/62-bono-demografico. [3] INE, National Institute of Statistics Guatemala, "National Household Income and Expenditure Survey," 09 December 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.ine.gob.gt/enigh/. [4] INE, National Institute of Statistics Guatemala, "Departmental population projections 2010-2050," 01 March 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.ine.gob.gt/proyecciones/. [5] ANACOVI, National Asociation of home builders, "Housing deficit international estadarization," 01 December 2021. [Online]. Available: https://anacovi.gt/deficit-vivienda-guatemala-propuesta-estandarizacion-internacional/. [6] A. L. Gonzales, "Vertical growth is an unstoppable phenomenon," Prensa Libre, pp. 6-9, 03 March 2025. [7] Banco Industrial, "Current Real Estate Listings Map," 03 March 2025. [Online]. Available: https://blog.corporacionbi.com/bi-vienda-en-linea-banco-industrial. [8] World Population Review, "Affordable Housing by Country," 10 03 2025. [Online]. Available: https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/affordable-housing-by-country. [9] INFONAVIT, Mexico, "Information Infonativit," 01 March 2025. [Online]. Available: https://infonavitfacil.mx/. [10] TECON, "Modular Formwork," 01 January 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.teconform.com/products/modular-formwork/. [11] DEMA Formwork, "What is The Tunnel Form System?," 01 January 2025. [Online]. Available: http://tunnel-formwork.com/icerik/what-is-the-tunnel-form-system. [12] BVN, Guatemala Stock Exchange, "Yield Curve GTQ," 07 03 2025. [Online]. Available: 2025. [13] S. C. M. F. A. Richard A. Brealey, Principles of Corporate Finance, 13th edition, New York: MC Grow Hill Education, 2020. [14] P. D. Jonathan Berk, Corporate Finance, 5th Edition, London: Pearson Education, 2020. [15] Cambridge Dictionary, "forecasting Definition," 01 January 2025. [Online]. Available: https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/forecasting. [16] CFI, Corporate Finance Institute, Financial Modeling Guidelines, Vancuber: Corporate Finance Institute, 2022. [17] INE, National Institute of Statistics Guatemala, "Municipal Population projections 2015-2035," 01 March 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.ine.gob.gt/proyecciones/. [18] FUNDESA, Fundation for the development of Guatemala, "Local Competitive Index," 01 June 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.fundesa.org.gt/indices-y-evaluaciones-de-pais/indice-de-competitividad-local. [19] UNFPA, United Nations Population Fund, "Demographic Dividend," 01 March 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.unfpa.org/demographic-dividend#0. [20] FHA, Insured Mortgage Fund of Guatemala, "My first house requirements," 05 March 2025. [Online]. Available: https://miprimeracasa.gob.gt/. [21] INE, National Institute of Statistics Guatemala, "Monthly Index of Construction Materials January 2025," 30 January 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.ine.gob.gt/indice-de-materiales-de-construccion/. [22] A. Damodaran, "Country Risk Premium," 31 January 2025. [Online]. Available: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html. [23] A. Damodaran, "Industry Betas," 31 January 2025. [Online]. Available: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/Betas.html.zh_TW