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題名 以電子發票資料庫比較刺激消費效果:三倍券 五倍券 普發現金
Using Electronic Invoice Database to Compare Stimulative Effects: Triple Stimulus Vouchers, Quintuple Stimulus Vouchers, Universal Cash Subsidy
作者 陳尚毅
Chen, Shang-Yi
貢獻者 連賢明
Lien, Hsien-Ming
陳尚毅
Chen, Shang-Yi
關鍵詞 振興三倍券
振興五倍券
普發現金
事件研究法
差異中之差異法
電子發票
日期 2025
上傳時間 4-Aug-2025 14:21:35 (UTC+8)
摘要 本文旨在比較2020年「振興三倍券」、2021年「振興五倍券」以及2023年「普發現金」發放後之消費刺激效果，使用財政部電子發票資料，並以2019年為對照組，分別比較各政策實施年份中綜合商品零售業與餐飲業之銷售額變動。研究發現普發現金未產生統計上的顯著效果，民眾多將其用於替代原有消費或儲蓄，而三倍券和五倍券皆有顯著刺激消費，顯示相較現金補貼，振興券的形式更能有效刺激民眾消費；透過事件研究法發現五倍券在綜合商品零售業與餐飲業中效果皆持續8週，三倍券則分別為5週與6週，進一步以差異中之差異法估計以比較紙本券之間的差異，三倍券所帶動之額外消費金額約為210.05至270.11億元，邊際消費傾向介於0.31至0.367，五倍券則約為249.84至294.4億元，邊際消費傾向介於0.176至0.201，顯示三倍券在刺激消費上具有較高之邊際消費傾向，其需先支付自付額之設計和實施時點在疫情前期更能有效誘發民眾額外支出。
參考文獻 中文文獻 吳中書 (2012)。發放消費券對國內經濟效益之評估(I)。中央研究院人文社會科學研究中心調查。 周德宇、連賢明、曾中信、黃詩涵、楊子霆 (出版中)。從電子發票資料看振興三倍券效果。經濟論文叢刊。 張建一、花佳正(2020)。振興三倍券之經濟效益評估。國家發展委員會。 張傳章、彭素玲、葉俊顯(2020)。振興三倍券之經濟效益評估。國家發展委員會。 陳建凱（2009）。消費券及現金之消費者行為比較分析〔未出版之碩士論文〕。國立高雄應用科技大學國際企業系。 黃琝琇、林建甫(2009)。消費券政策之總體經濟效果分析。農業與經濟，43，81-120。 英文文獻 Agarwal, S., Liu, C., & Souleles, N. S. (2007). The reaction of consumer spending and debt to tax rebates: Evidence from consumer credit data. Journal of Political Economy, 115(6), 986-1019. Baarsma, B., & Groenewegen, J. (2021). COVID-19 and the demand for online grocery shopping: Empirical evidence from the Netherlands. De Economist, 169(4), 407-421. Baker, S. R., Farrokhnia, R. A., Meyer, S., Pagel, M., & Yannelis, C. (2023). Income, liquidity, and the consumption response to the 2020 economic stimulus payments. Review of Finance, 27(6), 2271-2304. Broda, C., & Parker, J. A. (2014). The economic stimulus payments of 2008 and the aggregate demand for consumption. Journal of Monetary Economics, 68(Supplement), S20-S36. Chetty, R., Friedman, J. N., Stepner, M., & Opportunity Insights Team. (2024). The economic impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a new public database built using private sector data. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 139(2), 829-889.. Cox, N., Ganong, P., Noel, P., Vavra, J., Wong, A., Farrell, D., Greig, F., & Deadman, E. (2020). Initial impacts of the pandemic on consumer behavior. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, COVID-19 and the Economy: Part One (Summer 2020), 35-69. Hsieh, C.-T., Shimizutani, S., & Hori, M. (2010). Did Japan’s shopping coupon program increase spending? Journal of Public Economics, 94(7-8), 523-529. Johnson, D., Parker, J., & Souleles, N. (2006). Household expenditure and the income tax rebates of 2001. The American Economic Review, 96(5), 1589-1610. Kan, K., Peng, S.-K., & Wang, P. (2017). Understanding consumption behavior: Evidence from consumers’ reaction to shopping vouchers. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 9(1), 137-153 Karger, E., & Rajan, A. (2020). Heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume: Evidence from COVID-19 stimulus payments. Working Paper Series WP-2020-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. https://doi.org/10.21033/wp-2020-15 Kim, M. J., & Lee, S. (2021). Can stimulus checks boost an economy under COVID-19? Evidence from South Korea. International Economic Journal, 35(1), 1-12. Kim, S., Koh, K., & Lyou, W. (2023). Spend as you were told: Evidence from labeled COVID-19 stimulus payments in South Korea. Journal of Public Economics, 221, 104867. Kubota, S., Onishi, K., & Toyama, Y. (2021). Consumption responses to COVID-19 payments: Evidence from a natural experiment and bank account data. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 188, 1-17. Landais, C., Bounie, D., Camara, Y., Fize, E., Galbraith, J. W., Lavest, C., Pazem, T., & Savatier, B. (2020, November). Consumption dynamics in the COVID crisis: Real time insights from French transaction & bank data . CEPR Discussion Papers No. DP15474, C.E.P.R Discussion Papers. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3737607 Misra, K., Singh, V., & Zhang, Q. (2022). Frontiers: Impact of stay-at-home orders and cost-of-living on stimulus response: Evidence from the CARES Act. Marketing Science, 41(2), 211-229. Parker, J. A., Souleles, N. S., Johnson, D. S., & McClelland, R. (2013). Consumer spending and the economic stimulus payments of 2008. American Economic Review, 103(6), 2530-2553. Shapiro, M. D., & Slemrod, J. (2003). Consumer response to tax rebates. American Economic Review, 93(1), 381-396. Shapiro, M. D., & Slemrod, J. (2009). Did the 2008 tax rebates stimulate spending? American Economic Review, 99(2), 374-379. Thaler, R. (1985). Mental accounting and consumer choice. Marketing Science, 4(3), 199-214.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
110255021
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110255021
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 連賢明zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lien, Hsien-Mingen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳尚毅zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chen, Shang-Yien_US
dc.creator (作者) 陳尚毅zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chen, Shang-Yien_US
dc.date (日期) 2025en_US
dc.date.accessioned 4-Aug-2025 14:21:35 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 4-Aug-2025 14:21:35 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Aug-2025 14:21:35 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0110255021en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/158550-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財政學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 110255021zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文旨在比較2020年「振興三倍券」、2021年「振興五倍券」以及2023年「普發現金」發放後之消費刺激效果，使用財政部電子發票資料，並以2019年為對照組，分別比較各政策實施年份中綜合商品零售業與餐飲業之銷售額變動。研究發現普發現金未產生統計上的顯著效果，民眾多將其用於替代原有消費或儲蓄，而三倍券和五倍券皆有顯著刺激消費，顯示相較現金補貼，振興券的形式更能有效刺激民眾消費；透過事件研究法發現五倍券在綜合商品零售業與餐飲業中效果皆持續8週，三倍券則分別為5週與6週，進一步以差異中之差異法估計以比較紙本券之間的差異，三倍券所帶動之額外消費金額約為210.05至270.11億元，邊際消費傾向介於0.31至0.367，五倍券則約為249.84至294.4億元，邊際消費傾向介於0.176至0.201，顯示三倍券在刺激消費上具有較高之邊際消費傾向，其需先支付自付額之設計和實施時點在疫情前期更能有效誘發民眾額外支出。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 表次 ii 圖次 iii 附表次 iv 附圖次 iv 第壹章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景 1 第二節 研究目的 3 第貳章 文獻回顧 4 第一節 國外刺激消費之研究文獻 4 第二節 國內刺激消費之文獻 10 第參章 資料說明 12 第肆章 研究設計 15 第伍章 實證結果 18 第一節 敘述統計 18 第二節 估計結果 23 第三節 穩健性分析 33 第陸章 結論 40 參考文獻 43 附錄 46zh_TW
dc.format.extent 3105092 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110255021en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 振興三倍券zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 振興五倍券zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 普發現金zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 事件研究法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 差異中之差異法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 電子發票zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 以電子發票資料庫比較刺激消費效果:三倍券 五倍券 普發現金zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Using Electronic Invoice Database to Compare Stimulative Effects: Triple Stimulus Vouchers, Quintuple Stimulus Vouchers, Universal Cash Subsidyen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文文獻 吳中書 (2012)。發放消費券對國內經濟效益之評估(I)。中央研究院人文社會科學研究中心調查。 周德宇、連賢明、曾中信、黃詩涵、楊子霆 (出版中)。從電子發票資料看振興三倍券效果。經濟論文叢刊。 張建一、花佳正(2020)。振興三倍券之經濟效益評估。國家發展委員會。 張傳章、彭素玲、葉俊顯(2020)。振興三倍券之經濟效益評估。國家發展委員會。 陳建凱（2009）。消費券及現金之消費者行為比較分析〔未出版之碩士論文〕。國立高雄應用科技大學國際企業系。 黃琝琇、林建甫(2009)。消費券政策之總體經濟效果分析。農業與經濟，43，81-120。 英文文獻 Agarwal, S., Liu, C., & Souleles, N. S. (2007). The reaction of consumer spending and debt to tax rebates: Evidence from consumer credit data. Journal of Political Economy, 115(6), 986-1019. Baarsma, B., & Groenewegen, J. (2021). COVID-19 and the demand for online grocery shopping: Empirical evidence from the Netherlands. De Economist, 169(4), 407-421. Baker, S. R., Farrokhnia, R. A., Meyer, S., Pagel, M., & Yannelis, C. (2023). Income, liquidity, and the consumption response to the 2020 economic stimulus payments. Review of Finance, 27(6), 2271-2304. Broda, C., & Parker, J. A. (2014). The economic stimulus payments of 2008 and the aggregate demand for consumption. Journal of Monetary Economics, 68(Supplement), S20-S36. Chetty, R., Friedman, J. N., Stepner, M., & Opportunity Insights Team. (2024). The economic impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a new public database built using private sector data. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 139(2), 829-889.. Cox, N., Ganong, P., Noel, P., Vavra, J., Wong, A., Farrell, D., Greig, F., & Deadman, E. (2020). Initial impacts of the pandemic on consumer behavior. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, COVID-19 and the Economy: Part One (Summer 2020), 35-69. Hsieh, C.-T., Shimizutani, S., & Hori, M. (2010). Did Japan’s shopping coupon program increase spending? Journal of Public Economics, 94(7-8), 523-529. Johnson, D., Parker, J., & Souleles, N. (2006). Household expenditure and the income tax rebates of 2001. The American Economic Review, 96(5), 1589-1610. Kan, K., Peng, S.-K., & Wang, P. (2017). Understanding consumption behavior: Evidence from consumers’ reaction to shopping vouchers. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 9(1), 137-153 Karger, E., & Rajan, A. (2020). Heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume: Evidence from COVID-19 stimulus payments. Working Paper Series WP-2020-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. https://doi.org/10.21033/wp-2020-15 Kim, M. J., & Lee, S. (2021). Can stimulus checks boost an economy under COVID-19? Evidence from South Korea. International Economic Journal, 35(1), 1-12. Kim, S., Koh, K., & Lyou, W. (2023). Spend as you were told: Evidence from labeled COVID-19 stimulus payments in South Korea. Journal of Public Economics, 221, 104867. Kubota, S., Onishi, K., & Toyama, Y. (2021). Consumption responses to COVID-19 payments: Evidence from a natural experiment and bank account data. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 188, 1-17. Landais, C., Bounie, D., Camara, Y., Fize, E., Galbraith, J. W., Lavest, C., Pazem, T., & Savatier, B. (2020, November). Consumption dynamics in the COVID crisis: Real time insights from French transaction & bank data . CEPR Discussion Papers No. DP15474, C.E.P.R Discussion Papers. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3737607 Misra, K., Singh, V., & Zhang, Q. (2022). Frontiers: Impact of stay-at-home orders and cost-of-living on stimulus response: Evidence from the CARES Act. Marketing Science, 41(2), 211-229. Parker, J. A., Souleles, N. S., Johnson, D. S., & McClelland, R. (2013). Consumer spending and the economic stimulus payments of 2008. American Economic Review, 103(6), 2530-2553. Shapiro, M. D., & Slemrod, J. (2003). Consumer response to tax rebates. American Economic Review, 93(1), 381-396. Shapiro, M. D., & Slemrod, J. (2009). Did the 2008 tax rebates stimulate spending? American Economic Review, 99(2), 374-379. Thaler, R. (1985). Mental accounting and consumer choice. Marketing Science, 4(3), 199-214.zh_TW