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題名 台灣碳交易國際化與成本有效性評估
Carbon Trading Internationalization and Cost Effectiveness Assessment in Taiwan
作者 鍾承翰
Chung, Cheng-Han
貢獻者 李堅明
Li, Chien-Ming
鍾承翰
Chung, Cheng-Han
關鍵詞 碳交易
成本有效性
巴黎協定第六條
數值模擬
Carbon Trading Internationalization
Cost Effectiveness
Article 6 of Paris Agreement
Numerical Simulation
日期 2025
上傳時間 4-Aug-2025 14:23:00 (UTC+8)
摘要 碳交易具成本有效性，已成為全球重要的減碳工具，然而，台灣受到國際政治現實無法參與《巴黎協定》第6條，將限制台灣減碳力與影響力。本研究建立台灣參與國際碳交易的理論模型，模擬不同國際碳價、減碳目標、抵換率與技術進步率等情境設定下，評估台灣參與國際碳交易的最適碳權抵換率，以及成本節省率。本研究透過三種不同減碳成本模型 (DICE Nordhaus模型、McKinsey & Company模型、及本研究的混合模型)，進行最適碳權抵換率與成本節省率的敏感度分析，確認評估結果的穩健性。評估結果顯示，台灣參與國際碳交易，具有顯著的成本有效性，然而，成本節省率則隨著不同的減碳成本模型，呈現差異性；最適國際碳權抵換率，則應隨著國際碳價提高及減碳目標趨嚴而提高，最適抵換率介於26%-53%。如果考慮技術進步率，則最適抵換比率將由53%下降至16% (2050)；據此，本研究進一步參考日本與新加坡經驗，提出台灣參與國際碳交易的「台灣減量機制」(Taiwan Crediting Mechanism, TCM)政策建議。
Carbon trading, with its demonstrated cost-effectiveness, has emerged as a pivotal global instrument for carbon reduction. However, Taiwan's inability to participate in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement due to international political realities constrains Taiwan's carbon reduction capacity and global influence. This study establishes theoretical models for Taiwan's participation in international carbon trading, simulating various scenarios involving different international carbon prices, reduction targets, offset ratios, and technological progress rates to evaluate Taiwan's optimal carbon credit offset ratio and cost savings rate. Through three distinct carbon reduction cost models—the DICE Nordhaus model, the McKinsey & Company model, and this study's hybrid model—sensitivity analyses were conducted to confirm the robustness of the assessment results. The evaluation findings demonstrate that Taiwan's participation in international carbon trading exhibits significant cost-effectiveness, though cost savings rates vary across different models. The optimal international carbon credit offset ratio should increase with rising international carbon prices and increasingly stringent reduction targets, ranging between 26% and 53%. When incorporating technological progress rates, the optimal offset ratio decreases from 53% to 16% by 2050. Based on these findings, this study further examines the experiences of Japan and Singapore to propose the "Taiwan Crediting Mechanism (TCM)" as a policy recommendation for Taiwan's participation in international carbon trading.
參考文獻 Abnett, K. (2025, 2025/04/07). EU considering international CO2 credits to meet new climate goal, sources say. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/eu-considering-international-co2-credits-meet-new-climate-goal-sources-say-2025-04-07/ Barrage, L., & Nordhaus, W. (2024). Policies, projections, and the social cost of carbon: Results from the DICE-2023 model. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 121(13), e2312030121. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2312030121 BloombergNEF. (2024). Carbon Credits Face Biggest Test Yet, Could Reach $238/Ton in 2050, According to BloombergNEF Report. https://about.bnef.com/blog/carbon-credits-face-biggest-test-yet-could-reach-238-ton-in-2050-according-to-bloombergnef-report/ Cantone, B., Evans, D., & Reeson, A. (2023). The effect of carbon price on low carbon innovation. Sci Rep, 13(1), 9525. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-36750-9 Cline, W. R. (2011). Carbon Abatement Costs and Climate Change Finance. PIIE. Dimitrova, M. (2024). What is the market stability reserve in the EU ETS? https://www.homaio.com/post/what-is-the-market-stability-reserve-in-the-eu-ets European Comission. (2019). Light-duty vehicles. https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/transport-decarbonisation/road-transport/light-duty-vehicles_en European Comission. (2024). 2024 Carbon Market Report: a stable and well-functioning market, driving emissions from power and industry installations to a historic reduction of 16.5%. https://climate.ec.europa.eu/news-your-voice/news/2024-carbon-market-report-stable-and-well-functioning-market-driving-emissions-power-and-industry-2024-11-19_en Forest Trends’ Ecosystem Marketplace. (2023). “All in on Climate: The Role of Carbon Credits in Corporate Climate Strategies. Gadde, Harikumar, Rastogi, Patodia, N., Rodriguez, C., Xavier, M., Howard, & Andrew. (2021). Country Perspectives : Opportunities and Challenges for International Voluntary Carbon Markets in the Context of the Paris Agreement (English). http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/863921619677611679 Goldman Sachs Research. (2025). Carbonomics. Goulder, L. H., & Parry, I. W. H. (2008). Instrument Choice in Environmental Policy. RFF Discussion Paper. Government of Japan. (2023). Recent Developments ofthe Joint Crediting Mechanism(JCM). GR Japan. (2023). OVERVIEW OF JAPAN’S GREEN TRANSFORMATION (GX). Hatfield-Dodds, S., Cowie, M., & Herd, E. (2024). Can carbon become a new commodity class? https://www.ey.com/en_au/insights/sustainability/carbon-market-outlook-2024 International Emissions Trading Association. (2023). Modellingthe Economics of Article 6. IPCC. (2022). Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Jaffe, J., & Stavins, R. N. (2008). Linkage of Tradable Permit Systems in International Climate Policy Architecture. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, No. 14432. https://doi.org/10.3386/w14432 KAWAKATSU, T., LEE, S., & RUDOLPH, S. (2017). The Japanese Carbon Tax and the Challenges to Low-carbon Policy Cooperation in East Asia. Marketplace, F. T. E. (2024). State of the Voluntary Carbon Market 2024. F. T. Association. McKinsey&Company. (2013). Pathways to a low-carbon economy: Version 2 of the global greenhouse gas abatement cost curve. McKinsey&Company. (2018). Decarbonization of industrial sectors: the next frontier. National Climate Change Secretariat. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES：OVERVIEW. Retrieved March 31 from https://www.nccs.gov.sg/singapores-climate-action/overview/national-circumstances/ Nordhaus, W. (2008). A Question of Balance: Weighing the Options on Global Warming Policies. Yale University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt1npzkh PMR, & ICAP. (2021). Emissions Trading in Practice: A Handbook on Design and Implementation (2nd Edition). Stavins, R. N. (2022). The Relative Merits of Carbon Pricing Instruments: Taxes versus Trading. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 16, 1-21. UNFCCC. (2024). INTRODUCTORY WEBINAR ON ARTICLE 6 OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT AND CARBON MARKETS World Bank. (2023). What You Need to Know About Abatement Costs and Decarbonization. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2023/04/20/what-you-need-to-know-about-abatement-costs-and-decarbonisation World Bank. (2024). State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2024. Washington, DC: World Bank 中華民國. (2018). 溫室氣體抵換專案管理辦法. 中華民國. (2023a). 氣候變遷因應法. 中華民國. (2023b). 溫室氣體排放量盤查登錄及查驗管理辦法. 中華民國國家發展委員會. (2022). 淨零轉型之階段目標與行動. 李堅明. (2024a). 企業碳權抵換的氣候績效與完整性評析. 會計研究月刊(460), 78-85. https://doi.org/10.6650/arm.202403_(460).0012 李堅明. (2024b). 碳金，投資獲利新顯學. 今周刊. 李堅明. (2025). 台灣碳市場發展現況與展望. 李堅明, & 洪悅容. (2024a). 台灣碳定價助力淨零轉型配套研析. 工業污染防治, 160. 李堅明, & 洪悅容. (2024b). 台灣碳定價配套與企業因應之研究. 李堅明, 盧陽正, 吳明政, 鄭人之, & 蔡明修. (2017). 我國發展碳排放權期貨交易之可行性研究. 廖欽福. (2024). 碳排放權交易制度之實像與虛像－兼論「碳排配額」與「減量額度」之法律性質. 全國律師, 28, 46-58. 韓國政府. (2025). 《溫室氣體排放分配與交易法》.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
112255022
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112255022
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 李堅明zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Li, Chien-Mingen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 鍾承翰zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chung, Cheng-Hanen_US
dc.creator (作者) 鍾承翰zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chung, Cheng-Hanen_US
dc.date (日期) 2025en_US
dc.date.accessioned 4-Aug-2025 14:23:00 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 4-Aug-2025 14:23:00 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Aug-2025 14:23:00 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0112255022en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/158557-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財政學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 112255022zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 碳交易具成本有效性，已成為全球重要的減碳工具，然而，台灣受到國際政治現實無法參與《巴黎協定》第6條，將限制台灣減碳力與影響力。本研究建立台灣參與國際碳交易的理論模型，模擬不同國際碳價、減碳目標、抵換率與技術進步率等情境設定下，評估台灣參與國際碳交易的最適碳權抵換率，以及成本節省率。本研究透過三種不同減碳成本模型 (DICE Nordhaus模型、McKinsey & Company模型、及本研究的混合模型)，進行最適碳權抵換率與成本節省率的敏感度分析，確認評估結果的穩健性。評估結果顯示，台灣參與國際碳交易，具有顯著的成本有效性，然而，成本節省率則隨著不同的減碳成本模型，呈現差異性；最適國際碳權抵換率，則應隨著國際碳價提高及減碳目標趨嚴而提高，最適抵換率介於26%-53%。如果考慮技術進步率，則最適抵換比率將由53%下降至16% (2050)；據此，本研究進一步參考日本與新加坡經驗，提出台灣參與國際碳交易的「台灣減量機制」(Taiwan Crediting Mechanism, TCM)政策建議。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Carbon trading, with its demonstrated cost-effectiveness, has emerged as a pivotal global instrument for carbon reduction. However, Taiwan's inability to participate in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement due to international political realities constrains Taiwan's carbon reduction capacity and global influence. This study establishes theoretical models for Taiwan's participation in international carbon trading, simulating various scenarios involving different international carbon prices, reduction targets, offset ratios, and technological progress rates to evaluate Taiwan's optimal carbon credit offset ratio and cost savings rate. Through three distinct carbon reduction cost models—the DICE Nordhaus model, the McKinsey & Company model, and this study's hybrid model—sensitivity analyses were conducted to confirm the robustness of the assessment results. The evaluation findings demonstrate that Taiwan's participation in international carbon trading exhibits significant cost-effectiveness, though cost savings rates vary across different models. The optimal international carbon credit offset ratio should increase with rising international carbon prices and increasingly stringent reduction targets, ranging between 26% and 53%. When incorporating technological progress rates, the optimal offset ratio decreases from 53% to 16% by 2050. Based on these findings, this study further examines the experiences of Japan and Singapore to propose the "Taiwan Crediting Mechanism (TCM)" as a policy recommendation for Taiwan's participation in international carbon trading.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 圖目錄 iii 表目錄 v 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究緣起 1 第二節 研究動機與目的 4 第三節 研究內容與方法 6 第二章 碳交易理論與實務發展現況 9 第一節 碳交易市場國際化之理論基礎 11 第二節 《巴黎協定》第六條簡介 24 第三節 自願性碳交易市場之發展 29 第四節 本章小結 38 第三章 先進國家碳交易國際化之研析 42 第一節 日本碳交易國際化發展經驗與實務 43 第二節 新加坡碳交易國際化發展經驗與實務 57 第三節 瑞士碳交易國際化之經驗與實務 67 第四節 本章小結 75 第四章 碳交易國際化理論與效益研析 78 第一節 DICE Nordhaus函數形式模型 80 第二節 McKinsey & Company 模型 94 第三節 本研究模型 104 第四節 外生技術進步之數值模擬 119 第五節 本章小結 127 第五章 台灣碳交易國際化策略 136 第一節 台灣碳交易法制現況 138 第二節 台灣碳交易國際化策略 145 第三節 本章小結：台灣特色《巴黎協定》第六條機制 154 第六章 結論與建議 164 第一節 結論 164 第二節 研究限制與建議 172 參考文獻 177 附錄 181zh_TW
dc.format.extent 4684985 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112255022en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 碳交易zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 成本有效性zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 巴黎協定第六條zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 數值模擬zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Carbon Trading Internationalizationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Cost Effectivenessen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Article 6 of Paris Agreementen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Numerical Simulationen_US
dc.title (題名) 台灣碳交易國際化與成本有效性評估zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Carbon Trading Internationalization and Cost Effectiveness Assessment in Taiwanen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Abnett, K. (2025, 2025/04/07). EU considering international CO2 credits to meet new climate goal, sources say. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/eu-considering-international-co2-credits-meet-new-climate-goal-sources-say-2025-04-07/ Barrage, L., & Nordhaus, W. (2024). Policies, projections, and the social cost of carbon: Results from the DICE-2023 model. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 121(13), e2312030121. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2312030121 BloombergNEF. (2024). Carbon Credits Face Biggest Test Yet, Could Reach $238/Ton in 2050, According to BloombergNEF Report. https://about.bnef.com/blog/carbon-credits-face-biggest-test-yet-could-reach-238-ton-in-2050-according-to-bloombergnef-report/ Cantone, B., Evans, D., & Reeson, A. (2023). The effect of carbon price on low carbon innovation. Sci Rep, 13(1), 9525. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-36750-9 Cline, W. R. (2011). Carbon Abatement Costs and Climate Change Finance. PIIE. Dimitrova, M. (2024). What is the market stability reserve in the EU ETS? https://www.homaio.com/post/what-is-the-market-stability-reserve-in-the-eu-ets European Comission. (2019). Light-duty vehicles. https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/transport-decarbonisation/road-transport/light-duty-vehicles_en European Comission. (2024). 2024 Carbon Market Report: a stable and well-functioning market, driving emissions from power and industry installations to a historic reduction of 16.5%. https://climate.ec.europa.eu/news-your-voice/news/2024-carbon-market-report-stable-and-well-functioning-market-driving-emissions-power-and-industry-2024-11-19_en Forest Trends’ Ecosystem Marketplace. (2023). “All in on Climate: The Role of Carbon Credits in Corporate Climate Strategies. Gadde, Harikumar, Rastogi, Patodia, N., Rodriguez, C., Xavier, M., Howard, & Andrew. (2021). Country Perspectives : Opportunities and Challenges for International Voluntary Carbon Markets in the Context of the Paris Agreement (English). http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/863921619677611679 Goldman Sachs Research. (2025). Carbonomics. Goulder, L. H., & Parry, I. W. H. (2008). Instrument Choice in Environmental Policy. RFF Discussion Paper. Government of Japan. (2023). Recent Developments ofthe Joint Crediting Mechanism(JCM). GR Japan. (2023). OVERVIEW OF JAPAN’S GREEN TRANSFORMATION (GX). Hatfield-Dodds, S., Cowie, M., & Herd, E. (2024). Can carbon become a new commodity class? https://www.ey.com/en_au/insights/sustainability/carbon-market-outlook-2024 International Emissions Trading Association. (2023). Modellingthe Economics of Article 6. IPCC. (2022). Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Jaffe, J., & Stavins, R. N. (2008). Linkage of Tradable Permit Systems in International Climate Policy Architecture. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, No. 14432. https://doi.org/10.3386/w14432 KAWAKATSU, T., LEE, S., & RUDOLPH, S. (2017). The Japanese Carbon Tax and the Challenges to Low-carbon Policy Cooperation in East Asia. Marketplace, F. T. E. (2024). State of the Voluntary Carbon Market 2024. F. T. Association. McKinsey&Company. (2013). Pathways to a low-carbon economy: Version 2 of the global greenhouse gas abatement cost curve. McKinsey&Company. (2018). Decarbonization of industrial sectors: the next frontier. National Climate Change Secretariat. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES：OVERVIEW. Retrieved March 31 from https://www.nccs.gov.sg/singapores-climate-action/overview/national-circumstances/ Nordhaus, W. (2008). A Question of Balance: Weighing the Options on Global Warming Policies. Yale University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt1npzkh PMR, & ICAP. (2021). Emissions Trading in Practice: A Handbook on Design and Implementation (2nd Edition). Stavins, R. N. (2022). The Relative Merits of Carbon Pricing Instruments: Taxes versus Trading. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 16, 1-21. UNFCCC. (2024). INTRODUCTORY WEBINAR ON ARTICLE 6 OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT AND CARBON MARKETS World Bank. (2023). What You Need to Know About Abatement Costs and Decarbonization. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2023/04/20/what-you-need-to-know-about-abatement-costs-and-decarbonisation World Bank. (2024). State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2024. Washington, DC: World Bank 中華民國. (2018). 溫室氣體抵換專案管理辦法. 中華民國. (2023a). 氣候變遷因應法. 中華民國. (2023b). 溫室氣體排放量盤查登錄及查驗管理辦法. 中華民國國家發展委員會. (2022). 淨零轉型之階段目標與行動. 李堅明. (2024a). 企業碳權抵換的氣候績效與完整性評析. 會計研究月刊(460), 78-85. https://doi.org/10.6650/arm.202403_(460).0012 李堅明. (2024b). 碳金，投資獲利新顯學. 今周刊. 李堅明. (2025). 台灣碳市場發展現況與展望. 李堅明, & 洪悅容. (2024a). 台灣碳定價助力淨零轉型配套研析. 工業污染防治, 160. 李堅明, & 洪悅容. (2024b). 台灣碳定價配套與企業因應之研究. 李堅明, 盧陽正, 吳明政, 鄭人之, & 蔡明修. (2017). 我國發展碳排放權期貨交易之可行性研究. 廖欽福. (2024). 碳排放權交易制度之實像與虛像－兼論「碳排配額」與「減量額度」之法律性質. 全國律師, 28, 46-58. 韓國政府. (2025). 《溫室氣體排放分配與交易法》.zh_TW