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題名 臺歐半導體供應鏈之研究
The Study on the Semicondoctor Industry in Taiwan and Europe作者 林書澤
Lin, Shu-Tse貢獻者 吳文傑<br>周德宇
Wu, Wen-Chieh<br>Chou, Te-yu
林書澤
Lin, Shu-Tse關鍵詞 臺灣半導體
跨國供應鏈
產業策略
歐盟
Taiwan semiconductor
Cross-border supply chains
Industrial strategy
EU日期 2025 上傳時間 4-Aug-2025 14:23:49 (UTC+8) 摘要 本文旨在分析臺灣半導體產業與歐洲半導體相關產業間的雙向互動關係，從供給與需求兩端切入，運用時間序列迴歸模型進行實證分析，以說明臺歐半導體供應鏈的依賴結構、調整機制與潛在風險，研究透過歐洲關鍵產業的驗證，試圖掌握臺灣在歐洲產業升級與政策轉向過程中所扮演的角色，以及未來可能的合作路徑。 首先在需求面，本研究發現德國的電動車與油電混合車出口，對臺灣積體電路出口具有顯著正向影響，顯示此類車款對積體電路的依賴日益加深，相對而言燃油車並未對臺灣IC出口產生正面貢獻，甚至呈現排擠效果，顯示臺灣晶片在傳統車型中的嵌入度仍有限。其次在供應面臺灣積體電路出口動能與先進製程設備進口存在顯著連動性，研究顯示當臺灣IC出口表現強勁時，將帶動對ASML先進製程設備的中期進口需求，反映臺灣在晶圓廠擴產與製程升級上對歐洲技術的高度依賴。與此同時也觀察到臺灣本土設備在部分成熟節點與非曝光製程領域具備替代潛力，顯示其在設備自主性上的成長空間，再進一步分析得知，臺灣不僅為ASML的主要客戶，同時也是荷蘭ASML外的其他半導體設備業者在模組與零組件上的重要供應者。最後儘管法國軍工產業並未對臺灣IC出口形成顯著推力，反映歐洲在軍用與戰略性技術領域仍偏好內部供應鏈，臺灣廠商較難進入其核心體系。 綜合以上，臺歐半導體產業鏈已形成多層次且雙向的依賴關係，臺灣在終端應用與設備供應中扮演關鍵角色，但在軍工與戰略領域仍受歐洲自給政策限制，未來應採雙軌策略，一方面深化與歐洲電動車與設備業者的合作，穩固市場；另一方面強化本土設備升級與模組整合，透過技術認證與標準接軌，提升在歐洲高端供應鏈中的能見度與競爭力，強化臺灣在全球半導體體系中的戰略地位。
This study aims to analyze the bidirectional interaction between Taiwan’s semiconductor industry and related European sectors by examining both supply and demand dynamics. Utilizing time-series regression models, it investigates the dependency structure, adjustment mechanisms, and potential risks within the Taiwan–Europe semiconductor supply chain. Through empirical validation involving key European industries, the study seeks to identify Taiwan’s role in Europe’s industrial upgrading and policy shifts, as well as explore potential future paths for bilateral cooperation. On the demand side, the research finds that Germany’s exports of electric vehicles and hybrid cars have a significantly positive impact on Taiwan’s IC exports. This indicates a growing dependence of these vehicle types on ICs. In contrast, traditional internal combustion engine vehicles do not contribute positively to Taiwan’s IC exports and may even have a crowding-out effect, suggesting that Taiwanese chips are still not widely embedded in conventional vehicle systems. On the supply side, the momentum of Taiwan’s IC exports is closely linked to the country’s imports of advanced process equipment. The study reveals that strong IC export performance in Taiwan drives medium-term demand for advanced lithography equipment from ASML, reflecting Taiwan’s heavy reliance on European technologies for fab expansion and process upgrades. At the same time, Taiwan’s domestic equipment industry shows signs of substitution potential, especially in mature nodes and non-lithography process areas, indicating room for growth in equipment self-sufficiency. Further analysis reveals that Taiwan is not only a major customer of ASML, but also a key supplier of modules and components to other Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Lastly, although France’s military-industrial sector has not significantly boosted Taiwan’s IC exports, this reflects Europe’s preference for internal suppliers in defense and strategic technology sectors, limiting Taiwanese firms' access to the core of these supply chains. In conclusion, a multi-layered and reciprocal dependency has developed between the semiconductor industries of Taiwan and Europe. Taiwan plays a pivotal role in both end-use applications and equipment supply, but continues to face barriers in entering Europe’s defense and strategic technology markets due to self-sufficiency policies. A dual-track strategy is recommended: on one hand, Taiwan should deepen its cooperation with European EV and equipment firms to consolidate market presence; on the other, it should accelerate domestic equipment upgrades and modular integration, enhance compatibility with international standards and certifications, and raise its visibility and competitiveness within Europe’s high-end supply chains.參考文獻 吳育誌. (2019). 臺灣半導體進出口研究：以海關進口稅則8542節實證分析，國立政治大學財政研究所碩士論文。 盧建安. (2022). 影響電動車公司股價變動的分析，國立政治大學經營管理碩士學程碩士論文。 ASML. (2022). Annual report 2022. Linda Blechert (2022). Chips made in Europe: An analysis on the status quo of the European semiconductor industry, 國立政治大學國際經營管理英語碩士學程碩士論文。 Chen, J., & Wang, L. (2023). Technological innovation in semiconductor manufacturing: The role of Taiwan. IEEE Transactions on Semiconductor Manufacturing, 36(4), 512–520. Choi, H., & Kim, S. (2024). Electric vehicles and semiconductor demand: A global analysis. Energy Economics, 129, 107245. Ciani, A., & Nardo, M. (2022). The position of the EU in the semiconductor value chain: Evidence on trade, foreign acquisitions, and ownership. JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance, No. 2022/3. European Commission. (2020). Study on the electronics ecosystem – Overview, developments and Europe’s position in the world. Publications Office of the European Union. European Commission. (2022). A chips act for Europe. European Commission. Fernandez, R., & Kim, Y. (2023). Supply chain resilience in the semiconductor industry. International Journal of Production Economics, 265, 109012. Gupta, A., & Sharma, R. (2024). Semiconductors in aerospace: Global trends and dependencies. Journal of Aerospace Engineering, 37(2), 04023145. Huang, C.-C., & Lin, T.-H. (2024). Strategic alliances and trade in the semiconductor industry: The case of EU-Taiwan relations. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 198, 122978. IC Insights. (2021). Global foundry market share analysis. Krumbein, F. (2023). Leaving the dragon’s shadow – Normative power Europe and the emergence of a Taiwan policy in the EU. Journal of European Integration, 46(15), 171–190. Kumar, S., & Patel, N. (2025). Sustainability in semiconductor supply chains. Journal of Cleaner Production, 438, 140789. Lee, J., & Gereffi, G. (2022). Global value chains in the semiconductor industry: Patterns and policy implications. Journal of International Business Studies, 53(8), 1693–1712. Li, X., & Zhang, H. (2024). Exchange rate volatility and semiconductor exports: Evidence from East Asia. Journal of Asian Economics, 91, 101723. Nguyen, T., & Tran, H. (2025). The role of EUV lithography in advanced semiconductor manufacturing. Microelectronics Journal, 149, 106245. Park, J., & Lee, K. (2023). Global semiconductor equipment market: Trends and challenges. Journal of Business Research, 154, 113345. Maja Peters (2022). An analysis of the dependence of the German economy on the Taiwanese semiconductor industry Pozo, M., & Lee, S. (2023). Geopolitical risk and global semiconductor supply chains. Global Economic Review, 52(3), 189–205. Porter, M. E. (1998). Clusters and the new economics of competition. Harvard Business Review, 76(6), 77–90. Ramos, F., & Silva, J. (2024). The European Chips Act and its implications for global trade. European Journal of Political Economy, 81, 102512. Rodriguez, E., & Lopez, M. (2024). Global value chains and regional clusters in the semiconductor industry. Regional Studies, 58(6), 1234–1248. Santos, P., & Mendes, R. (2024). Energy prices and semiconductor industry: A global perspective. Energy Policy, 185, 113987. Tanaka, K., & Sato, Y. (2024). Geopolitical tensions and semiconductor trade: The EU-Taiwan nexus. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 24(2), 301–328. Tseng, C.-M., & Huang, W.-L. (2023). French aerospace industry and Taiwan’s semiconductor supply: A trade analysis. Aerospace Science and Technology, 132, 108056. Wang, Y., Pan, M., & Xie, T. (2024). The global production pattern of the semiconductor industry: An empirical research based on trade network. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 11, 763. ZEVI. (2021). Semicondoctor strategy for Germany and Europe: The current situation, analysis, and goals. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
112255028資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112255028 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 吳文傑<br>周德宇 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Wu, Wen-Chieh<br>Chou, Te-yu en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林書澤 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lin, Shu-Tse en_US dc.creator (作者) 林書澤 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Lin, Shu-Tse en_US dc.date (日期) 2025 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-Aug-2025 14:23:49 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-Aug-2025 14:23:49 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Aug-2025 14:23:49 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0112255028 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/158561 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 112255028 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文旨在分析臺灣半導體產業與歐洲半導體相關產業間的雙向互動關係，從供給與需求兩端切入，運用時間序列迴歸模型進行實證分析，以說明臺歐半導體供應鏈的依賴結構、調整機制與潛在風險，研究透過歐洲關鍵產業的驗證，試圖掌握臺灣在歐洲產業升級與政策轉向過程中所扮演的角色，以及未來可能的合作路徑。 首先在需求面，本研究發現德國的電動車與油電混合車出口，對臺灣積體電路出口具有顯著正向影響，顯示此類車款對積體電路的依賴日益加深，相對而言燃油車並未對臺灣IC出口產生正面貢獻，甚至呈現排擠效果，顯示臺灣晶片在傳統車型中的嵌入度仍有限。其次在供應面臺灣積體電路出口動能與先進製程設備進口存在顯著連動性，研究顯示當臺灣IC出口表現強勁時，將帶動對ASML先進製程設備的中期進口需求，反映臺灣在晶圓廠擴產與製程升級上對歐洲技術的高度依賴。與此同時也觀察到臺灣本土設備在部分成熟節點與非曝光製程領域具備替代潛力，顯示其在設備自主性上的成長空間，再進一步分析得知，臺灣不僅為ASML的主要客戶，同時也是荷蘭ASML外的其他半導體設備業者在模組與零組件上的重要供應者。最後儘管法國軍工產業並未對臺灣IC出口形成顯著推力，反映歐洲在軍用與戰略性技術領域仍偏好內部供應鏈，臺灣廠商較難進入其核心體系。 綜合以上，臺歐半導體產業鏈已形成多層次且雙向的依賴關係，臺灣在終端應用與設備供應中扮演關鍵角色，但在軍工與戰略領域仍受歐洲自給政策限制，未來應採雙軌策略，一方面深化與歐洲電動車與設備業者的合作，穩固市場；另一方面強化本土設備升級與模組整合，透過技術認證與標準接軌，提升在歐洲高端供應鏈中的能見度與競爭力，強化臺灣在全球半導體體系中的戰略地位。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study aims to analyze the bidirectional interaction between Taiwan’s semiconductor industry and related European sectors by examining both supply and demand dynamics. Utilizing time-series regression models, it investigates the dependency structure, adjustment mechanisms, and potential risks within the Taiwan–Europe semiconductor supply chain. Through empirical validation involving key European industries, the study seeks to identify Taiwan’s role in Europe’s industrial upgrading and policy shifts, as well as explore potential future paths for bilateral cooperation. On the demand side, the research finds that Germany’s exports of electric vehicles and hybrid cars have a significantly positive impact on Taiwan’s IC exports. This indicates a growing dependence of these vehicle types on ICs. In contrast, traditional internal combustion engine vehicles do not contribute positively to Taiwan’s IC exports and may even have a crowding-out effect, suggesting that Taiwanese chips are still not widely embedded in conventional vehicle systems. On the supply side, the momentum of Taiwan’s IC exports is closely linked to the country’s imports of advanced process equipment. The study reveals that strong IC export performance in Taiwan drives medium-term demand for advanced lithography equipment from ASML, reflecting Taiwan’s heavy reliance on European technologies for fab expansion and process upgrades. At the same time, Taiwan’s domestic equipment industry shows signs of substitution potential, especially in mature nodes and non-lithography process areas, indicating room for growth in equipment self-sufficiency. Further analysis reveals that Taiwan is not only a major customer of ASML, but also a key supplier of modules and components to other Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Lastly, although France’s military-industrial sector has not significantly boosted Taiwan’s IC exports, this reflects Europe’s preference for internal suppliers in defense and strategic technology sectors, limiting Taiwanese firms' access to the core of these supply chains. In conclusion, a multi-layered and reciprocal dependency has developed between the semiconductor industries of Taiwan and Europe. Taiwan plays a pivotal role in both end-use applications and equipment supply, but continues to face barriers in entering Europe’s defense and strategic technology markets due to self-sufficiency policies. A dual-track strategy is recommended: on one hand, Taiwan should deepen its cooperation with European EV and equipment firms to consolidate market presence; on the other, it should accelerate domestic equipment upgrades and modular integration, enhance compatibility with international standards and certifications, and raise its visibility and competitiveness within Europe’s high-end supply chains. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 研究方法與範圍 5 第三節 研究限制 6 第四節 研究架構 7 第二章 文獻回顧 8 第三章 稅則8542節背景分析 13 第一節 半導體產業介紹 13 第二節 臺灣第8542節稅則介紹 17 第三節 臺灣第8542節出口與產業鏈變化 19 第四章 研究模型與變數 25 第一節 建立假說 25 第二節 實證模型建立 28 第三節 變數界定 35 第四節 研究範圍與資料來源 52 第五章 實證研究結果 54 第一節 敘述性統計 54 第二節 相關係數結果 62 第三節 單根檢定 71 第四節 迴歸結果分析 75 第六章 結論與建議 99 參考文獻 102 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2916693 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112255028 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 臺灣半導體 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 跨國供應鏈 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 產業策略 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 歐盟 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Taiwan semiconductor en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Cross-border supply chains en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Industrial strategy en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) EU en_US dc.title (題名) 臺歐半導體供應鏈之研究 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Study on the Semicondoctor Industry in Taiwan and Europe en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 吳育誌. (2019). 臺灣半導體進出口研究：以海關進口稅則8542節實證分析，國立政治大學財政研究所碩士論文。 盧建安. (2022). 影響電動車公司股價變動的分析，國立政治大學經營管理碩士學程碩士論文。 ASML. (2022). Annual report 2022. Linda Blechert (2022). Chips made in Europe: An analysis on the status quo of the European semiconductor industry, 國立政治大學國際經營管理英語碩士學程碩士論文。 Chen, J., & Wang, L. (2023). Technological innovation in semiconductor manufacturing: The role of Taiwan. IEEE Transactions on Semiconductor Manufacturing, 36(4), 512–520. Choi, H., & Kim, S. (2024). Electric vehicles and semiconductor demand: A global analysis. Energy Economics, 129, 107245. Ciani, A., & Nardo, M. (2022). The position of the EU in the semiconductor value chain: Evidence on trade, foreign acquisitions, and ownership. JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance, No. 2022/3. European Commission. (2020). Study on the electronics ecosystem – Overview, developments and Europe’s position in the world. Publications Office of the European Union. European Commission. (2022). A chips act for Europe. European Commission. Fernandez, R., & Kim, Y. (2023). Supply chain resilience in the semiconductor industry. International Journal of Production Economics, 265, 109012. Gupta, A., & Sharma, R. (2024). Semiconductors in aerospace: Global trends and dependencies. Journal of Aerospace Engineering, 37(2), 04023145. Huang, C.-C., & Lin, T.-H. (2024). Strategic alliances and trade in the semiconductor industry: The case of EU-Taiwan relations. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 198, 122978. IC Insights. (2021). Global foundry market share analysis. Krumbein, F. (2023). Leaving the dragon’s shadow – Normative power Europe and the emergence of a Taiwan policy in the EU. Journal of European Integration, 46(15), 171–190. Kumar, S., & Patel, N. (2025). Sustainability in semiconductor supply chains. Journal of Cleaner Production, 438, 140789. Lee, J., & Gereffi, G. (2022). Global value chains in the semiconductor industry: Patterns and policy implications. Journal of International Business Studies, 53(8), 1693–1712. Li, X., & Zhang, H. (2024). Exchange rate volatility and semiconductor exports: Evidence from East Asia. Journal of Asian Economics, 91, 101723. Nguyen, T., & Tran, H. (2025). The role of EUV lithography in advanced semiconductor manufacturing. Microelectronics Journal, 149, 106245. Park, J., & Lee, K. (2023). Global semiconductor equipment market: Trends and challenges. Journal of Business Research, 154, 113345. Maja Peters (2022). An analysis of the dependence of the German economy on the Taiwanese semiconductor industry Pozo, M., & Lee, S. (2023). Geopolitical risk and global semiconductor supply chains. Global Economic Review, 52(3), 189–205. Porter, M. E. (1998). Clusters and the new economics of competition. Harvard Business Review, 76(6), 77–90. Ramos, F., & Silva, J. (2024). The European Chips Act and its implications for global trade. European Journal of Political Economy, 81, 102512. Rodriguez, E., & Lopez, M. (2024). Global value chains and regional clusters in the semiconductor industry. Regional Studies, 58(6), 1234–1248. Santos, P., & Mendes, R. (2024). Energy prices and semiconductor industry: A global perspective. Energy Policy, 185, 113987. Tanaka, K., & Sato, Y. (2024). Geopolitical tensions and semiconductor trade: The EU-Taiwan nexus. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 24(2), 301–328. Tseng, C.-M., & Huang, W.-L. (2023). French aerospace industry and Taiwan’s semiconductor supply: A trade analysis. Aerospace Science and Technology, 132, 108056. Wang, Y., Pan, M., & Xie, T. (2024). The global production pattern of the semiconductor industry: An empirical research based on trade network. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 11, 763. ZEVI. (2021). Semicondoctor strategy for Germany and Europe: The current situation, analysis, and goals. zh_TW
