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題名 捕蠅紙效果與其不對稱性反應-以臺灣地方政府為例
The Flypaper Effect and Asymmetric Responses-Evidence from Local Governments in Taiwan作者 吳妍臻
Wu, Yen-Chen貢獻者 陳國樑<br>伍大開
吳妍臻
Wu, Yen-Chen關鍵詞 捕蠅紙效果
中央補助款
GMM
財政依賴度
不對稱反應
Flypaper Effect
Central Government Grants
GMM
Fiscal Dependence
Asymmetric Response日期 2025 上傳時間 4-Aug-2025 14:24:01 (UTC+8) 摘要 臺灣財政體制長期呈現中央集權特色，地方政府財政收入高度依賴中央補助，自籌財源能力相對薄弱。此種財政依賴結構可能導致地方財政紀律弱化，並造成資源配置扭曲，影響整體財政治理品質。 本研究探討臺灣地方政府在民國90年至112年間對中央政府補助款的支出反應，旨在檢驗捕蠅紙效果 (Flypaper effect) 是否存在，以及此效果是否受到財政依賴度調節，最後其效果是否出現不對稱性反應。本文採用Panel固定效果模型 (Fixed Effects Model)，並且藉由差分一般化動差法 (Difference Generalized Method of Moments, DGMM) 與系統性一般化動差法 (System Generalized Method of Moments, SGMM) ，處理補助變數的內生性與地方財政支出的動態特性。實證設計中，分別納入無條件補助款、自籌財源、財政依賴度交乘項以及不對稱反應的虛擬變數，評估地方政府在不同財政制度結構下的支出反應程度。 實證結果顯示，補助款對地方支出的刺激效果顯著高於等額自籌財源，我國地方財政確實存在捕蠅紙效果。進一步分析發現，地方政府對中央補助的依賴程度，是影響捕蠅紙效果的重要因素，財政依賴度對補助款和自籌財源都產生顯著的負面調節效果，使捕蠅紙效果更加明顯。不對稱性分析則揭示財政替代效果，即地方政府對補助款減少的支出反應明顯低於補助款增加的反應，當補助減少時，支出並未等幅下修，地方政府會以其他財源彌補補助款減少，此種不對稱性反應可能導致長期財政壓力。
Taiwan's fiscal system has long been characterized by central government dominance, with local governments heavily dependent on central subsidies for fiscal revenue and relatively weak capacity for self-financing. This fiscal dependency structure may lead to weakened local fiscal discipline and distorted resource allocation, ultimately affecting the overall quality of fiscal governance. This paper examines Taiwan's local governments' expenditure responses to central government subsidies from 2001 to 2023, aiming to test whether the flypaper effect exists, whether this effect is moderated by fiscal dependency, and whether the effect exhibits asymmetric responses. The study employs Panel Fixed Effects Models and uses Difference Generalized Method of Moments (DGMM) and System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) to address the endogeneity of subsidy variables and the dynamic characteristics of local fiscal expenditure. The empirical design incorporates unconditional subsidies, self-financing sources, fiscal dependency interaction terms, and dummy variables for asymmetric responses to evaluate local governments' expenditure responses under different fiscal institutional structures. The empirical results show that subsidies have a significantly greater stimulating effect on local expenditure than equivalent self-financing sources, confirming that Taiwan's local fiscal system indeed exhibits the flypaper effect. Further analysis reveals that local governments' dependency on central subsidies is a crucial factor affecting the flypaper effect, with fiscal dependency producing significant negative moderating effects on both subsidies and self-financing sources, making the flypaper effect more pronounced. Asymmetric analysis reveals a fiscal replacement effect, where local governments' expenditure responses to subsidy reductions are significantly lower than their responses to subsidy increases. When subsidies decrease, expenditures do not proportionally decline, as local governments compensate for reduced subsidies with other financing sources. This asymmetric response may lead to long-term fiscal pressure.參考文獻 吳濟華與馮永猷 (2008)，「中位投票者模型與地方公共支出：台灣之實證研究」，《公共行政學報》，29，29–60。 林恭正與侯尚維 (2008)，「補助款與捕蠅紙效果-台灣地區實證分析」，《財稅研究》，42，114–136。 姚名鴻 (2017)，「地方支出與財政幻覺之實證分析」，《東吳政治學報》，35，1–36。 莊朝欽 (2011)，《捕蠅紙效果與政治因素之實證研究-以臺灣地方財政為例》，國立臺北大學財政學系碩士論文。 黃郁茜 (2023)，《臺灣地區捕蠅紙效果之實證重評估分析》，國立臺北大學財政學系碩士論文。 劉文婷 (2010)，《捕蠅紙效果之實證研究-以臺灣為例》，國立臺北大學財政學系碩士論文。 Arellano, M. and S. Bond (1991), “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and An Application to Employment Equations,” The Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277–297. Arellano, M. and O. Bover (1995), “Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models,” Journal of Econometrics, 68, 29–51. Blundell, R. and S. Bond (1998), “Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models,” Journal of Econometrics, 87, 115–143. Borge, L. (1995), “Lump-Sum Intergovernmental Grants Have Price Effects: A Note,” Public Finance Quarterly, 23, 271–274. Bradford, F. and W. Oates (1971), “The Analysis of Revenue Sharing in a New Approach to Collective Fiscal Decisions,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 85, 416–439. Canikalp, E., T. Turan, and I. Ünlükaplan (2021), “The Effects of Fiscal Decentralization on General and Local Government Size: Does Composite Index Matter?” Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, 17, 5–23. Christofzik, I. and B. Schneider (2019), “Fiscal Policy Adjustments to Budget Shocks: Evidence from German Municipalities,” German Council of Economic Experts Working Paper, No. 10. Courant, N., E. Gramlich, and D. Rubinfeld (1979), “The Stimulative Effects of Intergovernmental Grants: Or Why Money Sticks Where It Hits,” in P. Mieszowski and W. Oakland (ed.), Fiscal Federalism and Grants-in-Aid, 5–21, Washington, D.C., The Urban Institute. Dahlberg, M., E. Mörk, J. Rattsø, and H. Ågren (2008), “Using a Discontinuous Grant Rule to Identify the Effect of Grants on Local Taxes and Spending,” Journal of Public Economics, 92, 2320–2335. Dollery, B. and A. Worthington (1999), “Fiscal Illusion at the Local Level: An Empirical Test Using Australian Municipal Data,” Economic Record, 75, 37–48. Fafurida, F. and N. Pratiwi (2017), “Financial Independence of Regencies and Cities in Central Java,” Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, 9, 199-209. Gamkhar, S. and W. Oates (1996), “Asymmetries in the Response to Increases and Decreases in Intergovernmental Grants: Some Empirical Findings,” National Tax Journal, 49, 501–512. Gennari, E. and G. Messina (2014), “How Sticky are Local Expenditures in Italy? Assessing the Relevance of the Flypaper Effect Through Municipal Data,” International Tax and Public Finance, 21, 324–344. Goeminne, S., C. Smolders, and E. Vandorpe (2017), “The Real Impact of a One-off Fiscal Restriction: Empirical Evidence of a Flypaper Effect in Flemish Municipalities,” Public Money & Management, 37, 285–292. Gordon, N. (2004), “Do Federal Grants Boost School Spending? Evidence from Title I,” Journal of Public Economics, 88, 1771–1792. Gramlich, M. (1969), “State and Local Governments and their Budget Constraint,” International Economic Review, 10, 163–182. Gramlich, M. (1977), “Intergovernmental grants: A Review of the Empirical Literature,” in W. Oates (ed.), The Political Economy of Fiscal Federalism, 219–240, Lexington, MA., Lexington Books. Gramlich, M. (1987), “Federalism and Federal Deficit Reduction,” National Tax Journal, 40, 299–313. Guziejewska, B., A. Majdzińska, and A. Żółtaszek (2021), “The Flypaper Effect and Desirable Legislative Changes to Local Government Financing Systems,” Lex Localis: Journal of Local Self-Government, 19. Helm, I. and J. Stuhler (2024), “The Dynamic Response of Municipal Budgets to Revenue Shocks,” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 16, 484–527. Heyndels, B. (2001), “Asymmetries in the Flypaper Effect: Empirical Evidence for the Flemish Municipalities,” Applied Economics, 33, 1329–1334. Hines R. and H. Thaler (1995), “Anomalies: The Flypaper Effect,” Journal of economic perspectives, 9, 217–226. Ibarra Salazar, J. and V. Mollick (2006), “Mexican Northern Border Municipalities, Financial Dependence and Institutions,” The Annals of Regional Science, 40, 859–874. Inman, P. (2008), “The Flypaper Effect,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No. 14579. Jia, J., Y. Liu, J. Martinez-Vazquez, and K. Zhang (2021), “Vertical Fiscal Imbalance and Local Fiscal Indiscipline: Empirical Evidence from China,” European Journal of Political Economy, 68, 101992. Judson, A. and A. Owen (1996), “Estimating Dynamic Panel Data Models: A Practical Guide for Macroeconomists,” Economics letters, 65, 9–15. Kjaergaard, M. (2015), “The Flypaper Effect: Do Political Institutions Affect Danish Local Governments’ Response to Intergovernmental Grants?” Local Government Studies, 41, 534–552. Knight, B. (2002), “Endogenous Federal Grants and Crowd-out of State Government Spending: Theory and Evidence from the Federal Highway Aid Program,” American Economic Review, 92, 71–92. Langer, S. and A. Korzhenevych (2019), “Equalization Transfers and the Pattern of Municipal Spending: An Investigation of the Flypaper Effect in Germany,” Annals of Economics and Finance, 20, 737–765. Lim, S., S. Lee, and P. Kim (2017), “Asymmetry in the Fly-paper Effect of the National Subsidy in Korea,” Journal of the Asia Pacific economy, 22, 560–574. Lutz, B. (2010), “Taxation with Representation: Intergovernmental Grants in a Plebiscite Democracy,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92, 316–332. Mali, S. and L. Maličká (2022), “Flypaper Effect in the Republic of Serbia,” Lex Localis: Journal of Local Self-Government, 20. Marattin, L., T. Nannicini, and F. Porcelli (2022), “Revenue vs Expenditure Based Fiscal Consolidation: The Pass-through from Federal Cuts to Local Taxes,” International Tax and Public Finance, 29, 834–872. Melo, L. (2002), “The Flypaper Effect Under Different Institutional Contexts: The Colombian Case,” Public Choice, 111, 317–345. Niskanen, A. (1968), “The Peculiar Economics of Bureaucracy,” The American Economic Review, 58, 293–305. Oates, E. (1972), “Fiscal federalism,” New York, 1. Oates, E. (1979), “Lump-sum Intergovernmental Grants Have Price Effects,” Fiscal Federalism and Grants-in-aid, 23, 30. Rattsø, J. and P. Tovmo (2002), “Fiscal Discipline and Asymmetric Adjustment of Revenues and Expenditures: Local Government Responses to Shocks in Denmark,” Public Finance Review, 30, 208–234. Revelli, F. (2013), “Tax Mix Corners and Other Kinks,” The Journal of Law and Economics, 56, 741–776. Rios, V., M. Hortas-Rico, and P. Pascual (2022), “What Shapes the Flypaper Effect? The Role of the Political Environment in the Budget Process,” Local Government Studies, 48, 793–820. Shani, R., Y. Reingewertz, and E. Vigoda-Gadot (2023), “Intergovernmental Grants and Local Public Finance: An Empirical Examination in Israel,” European Journal of Political Economy, 79, 102420. Stine, F. (1994), “Is Local Government Revenue Response to Federal Aid Symmetrical? Evidence from Pennsylvania County Governments in an Era of Retrenchment,” National Tax Journal, 47, 799–816. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
112255029資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112255029 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 陳國樑<br>伍大開 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 吳妍臻 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Wu, Yen-Chen en_US dc.creator (作者) 吳妍臻 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Wu, Yen-Chen en_US dc.date (日期) 2025 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-Aug-2025 14:24:01 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-Aug-2025 14:24:01 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Aug-2025 14:24:01 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0112255029 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/158562 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 112255029 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 臺灣財政體制長期呈現中央集權特色，地方政府財政收入高度依賴中央補助，自籌財源能力相對薄弱。此種財政依賴結構可能導致地方財政紀律弱化，並造成資源配置扭曲，影響整體財政治理品質。 本研究探討臺灣地方政府在民國90年至112年間對中央政府補助款的支出反應，旨在檢驗捕蠅紙效果 (Flypaper effect) 是否存在，以及此效果是否受到財政依賴度調節，最後其效果是否出現不對稱性反應。本文採用Panel固定效果模型 (Fixed Effects Model)，並且藉由差分一般化動差法 (Difference Generalized Method of Moments, DGMM) 與系統性一般化動差法 (System Generalized Method of Moments, SGMM) ，處理補助變數的內生性與地方財政支出的動態特性。實證設計中，分別納入無條件補助款、自籌財源、財政依賴度交乘項以及不對稱反應的虛擬變數，評估地方政府在不同財政制度結構下的支出反應程度。 實證結果顯示，補助款對地方支出的刺激效果顯著高於等額自籌財源，我國地方財政確實存在捕蠅紙效果。進一步分析發現，地方政府對中央補助的依賴程度，是影響捕蠅紙效果的重要因素，財政依賴度對補助款和自籌財源都產生顯著的負面調節效果，使捕蠅紙效果更加明顯。不對稱性分析則揭示財政替代效果，即地方政府對補助款減少的支出反應明顯低於補助款增加的反應，當補助減少時，支出並未等幅下修，地方政府會以其他財源彌補補助款減少，此種不對稱性反應可能導致長期財政壓力。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Taiwan's fiscal system has long been characterized by central government dominance, with local governments heavily dependent on central subsidies for fiscal revenue and relatively weak capacity for self-financing. This fiscal dependency structure may lead to weakened local fiscal discipline and distorted resource allocation, ultimately affecting the overall quality of fiscal governance. This paper examines Taiwan's local governments' expenditure responses to central government subsidies from 2001 to 2023, aiming to test whether the flypaper effect exists, whether this effect is moderated by fiscal dependency, and whether the effect exhibits asymmetric responses. The study employs Panel Fixed Effects Models and uses Difference Generalized Method of Moments (DGMM) and System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) to address the endogeneity of subsidy variables and the dynamic characteristics of local fiscal expenditure. The empirical design incorporates unconditional subsidies, self-financing sources, fiscal dependency interaction terms, and dummy variables for asymmetric responses to evaluate local governments' expenditure responses under different fiscal institutional structures. The empirical results show that subsidies have a significantly greater stimulating effect on local expenditure than equivalent self-financing sources, confirming that Taiwan's local fiscal system indeed exhibits the flypaper effect. Further analysis reveals that local governments' dependency on central subsidies is a crucial factor affecting the flypaper effect, with fiscal dependency producing significant negative moderating effects on both subsidies and self-financing sources, making the flypaper effect more pronounced. Asymmetric analysis reveals a fiscal replacement effect, where local governments' expenditure responses to subsidy reductions are significantly lower than their responses to subsidy increases. When subsidies decrease, expenditures do not proportionally decline, as local governments compensate for reduced subsidies with other financing sources. This asymmetric response may lead to long-term fiscal pressure. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景 1 第二節 研究動機與目的 10 第三節 研究架構 13 第二章 文獻回顧 14 第一節 捕蠅紙效果的理論基礎與實證研究 14 第二節 捕蠅紙效果的估計方法 17 第三節 制度與財政結構因素對捕蠅紙效果的影響 18 第四節 捕蠅紙效果的不對稱性反應 20 一、不對稱性反應的基本概念與分類 20 二、不對稱性反應的理論基礎 22 三、不對稱性反應的實證研究 23 第五節 小結 26 第三章 研究方法與資料 28 第一節 變數定義與資料來源 28 一、被解釋變數–人均地方政府支出 29 二、解釋變數 29 三、制度性變數 30 四、檢測不對稱性 31 五、控制變數 31 第二節 實證模型與設定 32 一、研究方法 32 二、Panel固定效果迴歸模型 33 三、DGMM與SGMM模型 36 第四章 實證結果 40 第一節 敘述統計 41 第二節 捕蠅紙效果 43 第三節 依賴度調節效果 48 第四節 不對稱性反應 53 第五節 小結 57 第五章 結論與建議 59 參考文獻 62 附錄 67 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1512673 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112255029 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 捕蠅紙效果 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中央補助款 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) GMM zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 財政依賴度 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 不對稱反應 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Flypaper Effect en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Central Government Grants en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) GMM en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Fiscal Dependence en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Asymmetric Response en_US dc.title (題名) 捕蠅紙效果與其不對稱性反應-以臺灣地方政府為例 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Flypaper Effect and Asymmetric Responses-Evidence from Local Governments in Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 吳濟華與馮永猷 (2008)，「中位投票者模型與地方公共支出：台灣之實證研究」，《公共行政學報》，29，29–60。 林恭正與侯尚維 (2008)，「補助款與捕蠅紙效果-台灣地區實證分析」，《財稅研究》，42，114–136。 姚名鴻 (2017)，「地方支出與財政幻覺之實證分析」，《東吳政治學報》，35，1–36。 莊朝欽 (2011)，《捕蠅紙效果與政治因素之實證研究-以臺灣地方財政為例》，國立臺北大學財政學系碩士論文。 黃郁茜 (2023)，《臺灣地區捕蠅紙效果之實證重評估分析》，國立臺北大學財政學系碩士論文。 劉文婷 (2010)，《捕蠅紙效果之實證研究-以臺灣為例》，國立臺北大學財政學系碩士論文。 Arellano, M. and S. Bond (1991), “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and An Application to Employment Equations,” The Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277–297. Arellano, M. and O. Bover (1995), “Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models,” Journal of Econometrics, 68, 29–51. Blundell, R. and S. Bond (1998), “Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models,” Journal of Econometrics, 87, 115–143. Borge, L. (1995), “Lump-Sum Intergovernmental Grants Have Price Effects: A Note,” Public Finance Quarterly, 23, 271–274. Bradford, F. and W. Oates (1971), “The Analysis of Revenue Sharing in a New Approach to Collective Fiscal Decisions,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 85, 416–439. Canikalp, E., T. Turan, and I. Ünlükaplan (2021), “The Effects of Fiscal Decentralization on General and Local Government Size: Does Composite Index Matter?” Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, 17, 5–23. Christofzik, I. and B. Schneider (2019), “Fiscal Policy Adjustments to Budget Shocks: Evidence from German Municipalities,” German Council of Economic Experts Working Paper, No. 10. Courant, N., E. Gramlich, and D. Rubinfeld (1979), “The Stimulative Effects of Intergovernmental Grants: Or Why Money Sticks Where It Hits,” in P. Mieszowski and W. Oakland (ed.), Fiscal Federalism and Grants-in-Aid, 5–21, Washington, D.C., The Urban Institute. Dahlberg, M., E. Mörk, J. Rattsø, and H. Ågren (2008), “Using a Discontinuous Grant Rule to Identify the Effect of Grants on Local Taxes and Spending,” Journal of Public Economics, 92, 2320–2335. Dollery, B. and A. Worthington (1999), “Fiscal Illusion at the Local Level: An Empirical Test Using Australian Municipal Data,” Economic Record, 75, 37–48. Fafurida, F. and N. Pratiwi (2017), “Financial Independence of Regencies and Cities in Central Java,” Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, 9, 199-209. Gamkhar, S. and W. Oates (1996), “Asymmetries in the Response to Increases and Decreases in Intergovernmental Grants: Some Empirical Findings,” National Tax Journal, 49, 501–512. Gennari, E. and G. Messina (2014), “How Sticky are Local Expenditures in Italy? Assessing the Relevance of the Flypaper Effect Through Municipal Data,” International Tax and Public Finance, 21, 324–344. Goeminne, S., C. Smolders, and E. Vandorpe (2017), “The Real Impact of a One-off Fiscal Restriction: Empirical Evidence of a Flypaper Effect in Flemish Municipalities,” Public Money & Management, 37, 285–292. Gordon, N. (2004), “Do Federal Grants Boost School Spending? Evidence from Title I,” Journal of Public Economics, 88, 1771–1792. Gramlich, M. (1969), “State and Local Governments and their Budget Constraint,” International Economic Review, 10, 163–182. Gramlich, M. (1977), “Intergovernmental grants: A Review of the Empirical Literature,” in W. 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