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題名 全球性危機與能源市場風險：研析國際能源市場變動兼論市場風險監理
Global Crises and Energy Market Risks: An Analysis of International Energy Market Volatility and Market Risk Regulation作者 陳梅
Chen, Mei貢獻者 陳秉逵
陳梅
Chen, Mei關鍵詞 能源商品金融化
市場集中度
投資組合理論
能源市場安全指數
Energy commodity financialization
Market concentration
Modern portfolio theory
Energy market security index日期 2025 上傳時間 4-Aug-2025 14:34:07 (UTC+8) 摘要 本論文發現在經歷2019年Covid-19全球疫情、2022年俄烏戰爭等一系列極端事件後，引發之全面性能源危機對國際能源市場影響廣度及深度均超越歷次石油危機，突顯出全球能源安全系統面對極端事件時的風險控管的不足和因應機制之困境。有別於傳統能源研究針對供應導向與國家層級安全，近年的風險波動顯示出國際能源市場表現出市場整合和金融化趨勢，因此本論文從市場層面切入，全面檢視國際能源市場的系統結構與風險分布，利用市場集中度及投資組合理論架構建構國際能源市場風險評估模型，以量化模型分析Covid-19疫情和俄烏戰爭等極端事件後，國際市場與主要進口國之系統性風險、特定性風險和市場集中度波動。本論文發現整合程度與成熟度對能源市場韌性影響更為關鍵，整合程度與成熟度越高的市場，其韌性越佳。並且提出各種進口國對不同類型的極端事件敏感度不盡相同，進口國能源安全與市場風險波動透過需求面交互影響而升級，形成雙向風險傳遞機制，最終演變成全球性的需求危機。因此本論文指出當前能源市場面臨監理困境，傳統框架難以應對市場風險外溢效應，提出建立全球性監理協調機制、優化市場結構以降低特定性風險；建立針對主要進口國的個別監理機制；以及鼓勵進口國多元化能源渠道與發展本土能源生產能力等監理與政策建議。
This thesis investigates the structural vulnerabilities and regulatory challenges of the interna-tional energy market in the wake of a series of global crises, particularly the Covid-19 pandem-ic in 2019 and the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022. The analysis reveals that the scale and depth of the resulting energy shocks have surpassed those of previous oil crises, highlighting the limita-tions of existing global energy security mechanisms in managing risks associated with extreme events. Departing from conventional supply-side and state-centric approaches to energy securi-ty, this thesis adopts a market-oriented perspective to examine the growing financialization and integration of international energy markets. Through the application of market concentration index and modern portfolio theory, this thesis develops a quantitative risk assessment model to evaluate systematic and specific risks, as well as fluctuations in market concentration, across international energy markets and major energy-importing countries during periods of crisis. The empirical findings suggest that higher degrees of market integration and maturity are positively correlated with greater market resilience. Furthermore, the thesis identifies differentiated sensi-tivities among importing countries to various types of extreme events and demonstrates how demand-side interactions contribute to a bidirectional risk transmission mechanism, ultimately escalating into a global demand-side crisis. The thesis concludes that existing regulatory frameworks are insufficient to address the spillover effects of market risks. 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國立政治大學
外交學系戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班
112922003資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112922003 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 陳秉逵 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳梅 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chen, Mei en_US dc.creator (作者) 陳梅 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Chen, Mei en_US dc.date (日期) 2025 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-Aug-2025 14:34:07 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-Aug-2025 14:34:07 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Aug-2025 14:34:07 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0112922003 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/158596 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 外交學系戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 112922003 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本論文發現在經歷2019年Covid-19全球疫情、2022年俄烏戰爭等一系列極端事件後，引發之全面性能源危機對國際能源市場影響廣度及深度均超越歷次石油危機，突顯出全球能源安全系統面對極端事件時的風險控管的不足和因應機制之困境。有別於傳統能源研究針對供應導向與國家層級安全，近年的風險波動顯示出國際能源市場表現出市場整合和金融化趨勢，因此本論文從市場層面切入，全面檢視國際能源市場的系統結構與風險分布，利用市場集中度及投資組合理論架構建構國際能源市場風險評估模型，以量化模型分析Covid-19疫情和俄烏戰爭等極端事件後，國際市場與主要進口國之系統性風險、特定性風險和市場集中度波動。本論文發現整合程度與成熟度對能源市場韌性影響更為關鍵，整合程度與成熟度越高的市場，其韌性越佳。並且提出各種進口國對不同類型的極端事件敏感度不盡相同，進口國能源安全與市場風險波動透過需求面交互影響而升級，形成雙向風險傳遞機制，最終演變成全球性的需求危機。因此本論文指出當前能源市場面臨監理困境，傳統框架難以應對市場風險外溢效應，提出建立全球性監理協調機制、優化市場結構以降低特定性風險；建立針對主要進口國的個別監理機制；以及鼓勵進口國多元化能源渠道與發展本土能源生產能力等監理與政策建議。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This thesis investigates the structural vulnerabilities and regulatory challenges of the interna-tional energy market in the wake of a series of global crises, particularly the Covid-19 pandem-ic in 2019 and the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022. The analysis reveals that the scale and depth of the resulting energy shocks have surpassed those of previous oil crises, highlighting the limita-tions of existing global energy security mechanisms in managing risks associated with extreme events. Departing from conventional supply-side and state-centric approaches to energy securi-ty, this thesis adopts a market-oriented perspective to examine the growing financialization and integration of international energy markets. Through the application of market concentration index and modern portfolio theory, this thesis develops a quantitative risk assessment model to evaluate systematic and specific risks, as well as fluctuations in market concentration, across international energy markets and major energy-importing countries during periods of crisis. The empirical findings suggest that higher degrees of market integration and maturity are positively correlated with greater market resilience. Furthermore, the thesis identifies differentiated sensi-tivities among importing countries to various types of extreme events and demonstrates how demand-side interactions contribute to a bidirectional risk transmission mechanism, ultimately escalating into a global demand-side crisis. The thesis concludes that existing regulatory frameworks are insufficient to address the spillover effects of market risks. Accordingly, this thesis proposes establishing globally coordinated regulatory mechanisms, implementing struc-tural reforms to mitigate specific risks, developing supervisory regimes for major importing countries, and promoting energy diversification strategies to enhance domestic energy produc-tion capacities. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 一、 研究動機 1 二、 研究目的 2 三、 研究問題 3 第二節 能源安全界定 5 一、 能源安全定義 5 二、 能源治理挑戰 7 三、 能源危機與市場角色 8 四、 小結 10 第三節 章節安排 10 第二章 文獻回顧 12 第一節 能源市場安全理論 12 一、 市場集中度理論 12 二、 投資組合風險理論 13 三、 極端值風險（尾部風險）理論 16 四、 能源市場金融監理必要性 18 五、 小結 20 第二節 能源危機與政策回應 21 一、 全球治理制度缺失與能源危機 21 二、 從供給導向到需求導向 23 三、 進口國政策回應 26 四、 小結 28 第三節 研究假設 29 第三章 研究途徑與方法 31 第一節 研究途徑與模型設計 31 一、 模型設計 31 二、 研究架構與變量設定 33 三、 數據處理 37 第二節 預期結果 43 第三節 研究範圍與限制 45 一、 研究範圍 45 二、 研究限制 46 第四章 能源危機與國際能源市場安全 50 第一節 化石燃料市場 52 一、 原油市場風險 52 二、 天然氣市場風險 57 三、 煤炭市場風險 63 第二節 乾淨能源市場 69 一、 核能市場風險 69 二、 太陽能市場風險 75 三、 風能市場風險 81 第三節 小結與監理建議 87 一、 市場風險分布特徵 89 二、 市場監理困境與建議 90 第五章 能源市場安全與進口國個案研究 95 第一節 美國：進出口雙向市場參與者 96 一、 美國原油進口風險與政策 97 二、 美國天然氣進口風險與政策 101 三、 美國煤炭進口風險與政策 105 四、 美國核能進口風險與政策 107 第二節 歐盟：依賴單一來源之經濟體 112 一、 歐盟原油進口風險 115 二、 歐盟天然氣進口風險 122 三、 歐盟煤炭進口風險 129 四、 歐盟核能進口風險 136 第三節 日本：能源資源稀缺之海島國家 139 一、 日本原油進口風險 141 二、 日本天然氣進口風險 146 三、 日本煤炭進口風險 152 四、 日本核能進口風險 159 第四節 中國：需求增長與能源轉型之平衡點 159 一、 中國原油進口風險 163 二、 中國天然氣進口風險 171 三、 中國煤炭進口風險 178 四、 中國核能進口風險 185 第五節 印度：需求高速增長之新興經濟體 186 一、 印度原油進口風險 188 二、 印度天然氣進口風險 196 三、 印度煤炭進口風險 199 四、 印度核能進口風險 205 第六節 小結與政策建議 208 一、 進口國風險波動趨勢 208 二、 市場進口國風險分布 210 三、 需求導向型危機 214 四、 政策建議 217 第六章 結論與展望 220 第一節 研究發現 220 一、 能源市場缺乏應對極端事件之韌性 220 二、 市場需求面出現能源安全風險 221 三、 能源市場風險監理機制之必要性 222 第二節 未來研究方向 224 一、 補足研究限制 224 二、 擴充研究範圍 225 三、 強化研究發現 226 參考文獻 227 zh_TW dc.format.extent 10695692 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112922003 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 能源商品金融化 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 市場集中度 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 投資組合理論 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 能源市場安全指數 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Energy commodity financialization en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Market concentration en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Modern portfolio theory en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Energy market security index en_US dc.title (題名) 全球性危機與能源市場風險：研析國際能源市場變動兼論市場風險監理 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Global Crises and Energy Market Risks: An Analysis of International Energy Market Volatility and Market Risk Regulation en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文部分 丁仁東，2009，《能源危機》，台北：五南出版社。 中國現代國際關係研究院經濟安全研究中心，2005，《全球能源大棋局》，北京：時事出版社。 中國國際經濟交流中心，2012，《國際經濟分析與展望.2011-2012》，北京：社會科學文獻出版社。 中華人民共和國海關總署，2025，<海關統計數據在線查詢平臺>，http://stats.customs.gov.cn/，查閱時間:2025/02/28。 王玉安（2015），〈生質酒精與農產品的價格波動之外溢效果〉，碩士論文，國立中興大學。 王佩，2017，〈2016年國內外十大石油經濟事件——OPEC與非OPEC國家聯合減產力促全球石油市場再平衡〉，《國際石油經濟》，25（1）：2-4。 王新哲、段兆芳，2017，〈美國首度出口LNG助推全球天然氣市場一體化進程〉，《國際石油經濟》，25（1）：11-12。 安尼瓦爾．阿木提、張勝旺，2003，《石油與國家安全》，新疆：新疆人民出版社。 低碳力（2025a），〈中華人民共和國2023/2024年電力數據〉，https://lowcarbonpower.org/zht/region/%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E4%BA%BA%E6%B0%91%E5%85%B1%E5%92%8C%E5%9C%8B，查閱時間：2025/03/30。 低碳力（2025b），〈日本2023/2024年電力數據〉，https://lowcarbonpower.org/zht/region/%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC，查閱時間：2025/02/02。 低碳力（2025c），〈印度2023/2024年電力數據〉，https://lowcarbonpower.org/zht/region/%E5%8D%B0%E5%BA%A6，查閱時間：2025/02/27。 低碳力（2025d），〈美國2023/2024年電力數據〉，https://lowcarbonpower.org/zht/region/%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B/month，查閱時間：2025/02/01。 低碳力（2025e），〈歐盟2024年電力數據〉，https://lowcarbonpower.org/zht/region/%E6%AD%90%E7%9B%9F，查閱時間：2025/02/01。 何亮、崔坤宇、王立娜，2018，〈“石油美元”淵源及現狀研究〉，《科技和產業》，18：111-114。 吳慧蘭（2023），〈塞爾維亞及保加利亞開通天然氣跨境管線〉，https://www.trade.gov.tw/Pages/Detail.aspx?nodeid=45&pid=775363，查閱時間：2025/01/22。 周桂蘭（2016），〈巴拿馬運河擴建縮短減美國LNG至亞洲市場的船運時間及成本，將改變全球LNG市場供應的規模及版圖〉，https://km.twenergy.org.tw/Data/db_more?id=1289，查閱時間：2025/01/30。 周鳳起、周大地，1999，《中國中長期能源戰略》，北京：中國計劃出版社。 岳來群、夏麗洪，2009，〈宏觀形勢變化下的各國能源政策應對——2008年國外能源政策綜述〉，《國際石油經濟》，17（2）：1-6。https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1004-7298.2009.02.001 油控研究項目課題組，2019，〈中國石油消費情景與峰值分析〉，《中國煤炭》，45（12）：20-26。 約林（Phillipe Jorion），2005，《風險值：金融風險管理的新基準》，黃達業、張容容譯，台北：麥格羅希爾出版。 侯文賢，2009，〈我國公平交易法關於結合管制之研究－兼論中國反壟斷法之管制規範〉，碩士論文，中國文化大學。https://hdl.handle.net/11296/pnf3y5 查道炯，2005，《中國石油安全的國際政治經濟學分析》，北京：當代世界出版社。 夏麗洪，2012，〈以多元化的能源供應保障國家能源安全——能源專家曾興球談〈中國能源政策2012〉白皮書〉，《國際石油經濟》，11：1-5。 財經M平方，2025，〈全球主要煤炭價格〉，https://www.macromicro.me/charts/39415/global-coal-prices，查閱時間：2025/05/01。 張生玲，2008，〈化解國家能源安全風險的策略選擇〉，《理論前沿》，4：35-36。 梁國源、陳尚賢，2000，〈HHI與事業結合申請案=HHI and Competition Analysis of Firm Consolidations〉，《公平交易季刊》，8（1）：127-144。 曾怡仁，2013，《國際政治經濟學理論》，臺北：三民書局。 菲利普．賽比耶－洛佩茲，2008，《石油地緣政治》，潘革平譯，北京：社會科學文獻出版社。 黃恩浩，2021，〈簡析中國對澳洲的經濟制裁之影響與未來發展〉，https://www.pf.org.tw/en/pfen/34-7993.html，查閱時間：2025/01/30。 劉立濤、沈鐳、劉曉潔，2012，〈能源安全研究的理論與方法及其主要進展〉，《地理科學進展》，31（4）：403-411。 劉蕭翔，2022，〈中國西進之天然氣布局〉，《國防情勢特刊》，18：43-52。 樊大磊、王宗禮、王彧嫣、韓志強、李文博、白羽、卜小平、李劍，2025，〈2024年國內外油氣資源形勢分析及展望〉，《中國礦業》，34（1）。https://doi.org/10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.20250069 闕棟鴻，2022，德國因應俄烏局勢之能源政策調整分析，國家總體能源政策發展規劃及決策支援能量建構計畫111年度報告。 龔榮男，2022，〈德國建成首座浮動式液化天然氣接收碼頭設施〉，https://www.trade.gov.tw/Pages/Detail.aspx?nodeID=45&pid=753020，查閱時間：2025/03/15。 二、英文部分 Abdullah, M., Abakah, E. 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