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題名 國內因素如何影響歐俄間中小型國家外交策略選擇（1992─2022）
How Domestic Factors Affect Foreign Policy Strategy in Small and Medium-sized Countries between Europe and Russia (1992 - 2022)作者 施沂瑄
Shih, Yi-Syuan貢獻者 李佳怡
施沂瑄
Shih, Yi-Syuan關鍵詞 中小型國家
國內因素
歐盟
俄國
Small and medium-sized States
Internal factors
Russia
European Union日期 2025 上傳時間 4-Aug-2025 15:17:01 (UTC+8) 摘要 本研究探討1992至2022年間，27個前蘇聯及前共產集團國家的內部差異，如何導致其外交政策的差異。研究結果顯示若一國的民主程度、市場開放程度及法治水準越高，則該國會與俄國較為疏遠，並與歐盟關係更為密切，且此一趨勢在前蘇聯國家中最為明顯。為進一步研究其中的關聯性，本文選取摩爾多瓦與塞爾維亞兩國作為個案，發現前者逐漸走向親歐道路，後者則採避險策略，儘管兩國外交政策與立場有所差異，但皆顯示當內部較為民主開放時，與歐盟國家的互動會更為密切，反之則與俄國的關係更為緊密。
This study examines how internal variations among 27 former Soviet countries and former communist bloc countries between 1992 and 2022 have shaped their foreign policy orientations. The findings indicate that higher levels of democracy, market liberalization, and rule of law are associated with greater distancing from Russia and closer alignment with the European Union. This pattern is particularly pronounced among former Soviet countries. The article uses the cases of Moldova and Serbia to clarify the relationship between internal factors and foreign policy orientations. Moldova has progressively adopted a pro-European trajectory, while Serbia has pursued a hedging strategy. Despite their different strategies, both cases demonstrate that greater internal democratization and openness tend to foster stronger engagement with EU member states, whereas less democratic and closed systems are more likely to maintain closer ties with Russia.參考文獻 一、 中文部分 吳玉山（1997a）。抗衡或扈從：面對強鄰時的策略抉擇<上>。問題與研究，36(2)，1-32。 吳玉山（1997b）。抗衡或扈從：面對強鄰時的策略抉擇<上>。問題與研究，36(3)，61-80。 吳玉山（2019）。兩強間中小國家的抉擇: 一個理論的視角。吳玉山、楊三億（主編），左右逢源還是左右為難？中小型國家在兩強間的抉擇。 況正吉、宋鎮照（2016）。從國內政治與國際因素分析烏克蘭危機。全球政治評論(53)，41-66。 郭武平、劉蕭翔（2008）。烏俄天然氣之爭對烏克蘭政局影響之探析。遠景基金會季刊，9(3)，35-79。 楊三億（2017）。歐洲中小型國家安全政策：策略選擇與轉型。問題與研究，56(2)。 楊三億（2018a）。中小型國家的安全策略及其路徑演變: 以塞爾維亞，亞美尼亞與烏克蘭為例。政治科學論叢(78)，105-136。 楊三億（2018b）。烏克蘭安全策略選擇: 內部因素分析。問題與研究，57(1)，1-28。 楊三億（2020）。外交政策選擇的內因或外因探索：烏克蘭與吉爾吉斯的個案研究。台灣政治學刊，24(2)，67-103。 楊三億（2021）。強權競爭下的中型國家安全策略：以波蘭與土耳其為例。歐美研究，51(2)。 薛健吾（2018）。歐俄交界國家與俄、德之關係分析：以12個第一線國家為例。歐亞研究，5，71-84。 薛健吾（2020）。歷史的終結? 歐俄競爭下中東歐國家與俄國之間外交政策利益相似程度之變化 (2000~ 2018)。問題與研究，59(4)，51-93。 魏百谷（2019）。地緣政治夾縫中的立陶宛。吳玉山、楊三億（主編），左右逢源還是左右為難？中小型國家在兩強間的抉擇。 二、 英文部分 Al Jazeera. 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World Integrated Trade Solution. Retrieved Apr. 24, 2025 from https://wits.worldbank.org/Default.aspx?lang=en Wolczuk, K. (2019). State building and European integration in Ukraine. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 60(6), 736-754. https://doi.org/10.1080/15387216.2019.1655463 World Bank. (2024). World Development Indicators. Retrieved Dec. 11, 2024 from https://databank.worldbank.org/home World Bank. (2024). Worldwide Governance Indicators. Retrieved Apr. 24, 2025 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
外交學系
111253005資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111253005 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 李佳怡 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 施沂瑄 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Shih, Yi-Syuan en_US dc.creator (作者) 施沂瑄 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Shih, Yi-Syuan en_US dc.date (日期) 2025 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-Aug-2025 15:17:01 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-Aug-2025 15:17:01 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Aug-2025 15:17:01 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0111253005 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/158730 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 外交學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 111253005 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究探討1992至2022年間，27個前蘇聯及前共產集團國家的內部差異，如何導致其外交政策的差異。研究結果顯示若一國的民主程度、市場開放程度及法治水準越高，則該國會與俄國較為疏遠，並與歐盟關係更為密切，且此一趨勢在前蘇聯國家中最為明顯。為進一步研究其中的關聯性，本文選取摩爾多瓦與塞爾維亞兩國作為個案，發現前者逐漸走向親歐道路，後者則採避險策略，儘管兩國外交政策與立場有所差異，但皆顯示當內部較為民主開放時，與歐盟國家的互動會更為密切，反之則與俄國的關係更為緊密。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study examines how internal variations among 27 former Soviet countries and former communist bloc countries between 1992 and 2022 have shaped their foreign policy orientations. The findings indicate that higher levels of democracy, market liberalization, and rule of law are associated with greater distancing from Russia and closer alignment with the European Union. This pattern is particularly pronounced among former Soviet countries. The article uses the cases of Moldova and Serbia to clarify the relationship between internal factors and foreign policy orientations. Moldova has progressively adopted a pro-European trajectory, while Serbia has pursued a hedging strategy. Despite their different strategies, both cases demonstrate that greater internal democratization and openness tend to foster stronger engagement with EU member states, whereas less democratic and closed systems are more likely to maintain closer ties with Russia. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 研究問題與研究範圍 2 第二章 文獻回顧 5 第一節 歐洲與俄國在地緣上的競爭 5 第二節 各國民意對俄國的態度 8 第三節 國家外交策略選擇 10 第三章 研究方法 17 第一節 研究假設 17 第二節 模型與變數 19 第四章 研究結果與個案分析 27 第一節 研究結果 27 第二節 個案研究 32 第五章 結論 41 參考文獻 44 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1628767 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111253005 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中小型國家 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 國內因素 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 歐盟 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 俄國 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Small and medium-sized States en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Internal factors en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Russia en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) European Union en_US dc.title (題名) 國內因素如何影響歐俄間中小型國家外交策略選擇（1992─2022） zh_TW dc.title (題名) How Domestic Factors Affect Foreign Policy Strategy in Small and Medium-sized Countries between Europe and Russia (1992 - 2022) en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、 中文部分 吳玉山（1997a）。抗衡或扈從：面對強鄰時的策略抉擇<上>。問題與研究，36(2)，1-32。 吳玉山（1997b）。抗衡或扈從：面對強鄰時的策略抉擇<上>。問題與研究，36(3)，61-80。 吳玉山（2019）。兩強間中小國家的抉擇: 一個理論的視角。吳玉山、楊三億（主編），左右逢源還是左右為難？中小型國家在兩強間的抉擇。 況正吉、宋鎮照（2016）。從國內政治與國際因素分析烏克蘭危機。全球政治評論(53)，41-66。 郭武平、劉蕭翔（2008）。烏俄天然氣之爭對烏克蘭政局影響之探析。遠景基金會季刊，9(3)，35-79。 楊三億（2017）。歐洲中小型國家安全政策：策略選擇與轉型。問題與研究，56(2)。 楊三億（2018a）。中小型國家的安全策略及其路徑演變: 以塞爾維亞，亞美尼亞與烏克蘭為例。政治科學論叢(78)，105-136。 楊三億（2018b）。烏克蘭安全策略選擇: 內部因素分析。問題與研究，57(1)，1-28。 楊三億（2020）。外交政策選擇的內因或外因探索：烏克蘭與吉爾吉斯的個案研究。台灣政治學刊，24(2)，67-103。 楊三億（2021）。強權競爭下的中型國家安全策略：以波蘭與土耳其為例。歐美研究，51(2)。 薛健吾（2018）。歐俄交界國家與俄、德之關係分析：以12個第一線國家為例。歐亞研究，5，71-84。 薛健吾（2020）。歷史的終結? 歐俄競爭下中東歐國家與俄國之間外交政策利益相似程度之變化 (2000~ 2018)。問題與研究，59(4)，51-93。 魏百谷（2019）。地緣政治夾縫中的立陶宛。吳玉山、楊三億（主編），左右逢源還是左右為難？中小型國家在兩強間的抉擇。 二、 英文部分 Al Jazeera. 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