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題名 囤房稅對房價之影響
The Impact of Hoarding Tax on Housing Prices作者 吳秉儒
Wu, Ping-Ju貢獻者 林左裕
吳秉儒
Wu, Ping-Ju關鍵詞 囤房稅
傾向分數配對
差異中之差異法
分量迴歸
事件研究法
Hoarding tax
Propensity score matching
Difference-in-differences
Quantile regression
Event study日期 2025 上傳時間 1-Sep-2025 14:33:45 (UTC+8) 摘要 本研究旨在探討囤房稅政策對房價之影響，區分為囤房稅1.0與囤房稅2.0兩階段進行實證分析。首先針對囤房稅1.0，選取2013年7月至2015年6月之內政部實價登錄個體交易資料，採用台北市為實驗組、新北市為控制組，透過傾向分數配對法進行樣本平衡處理後，結合差異中之差異法以估計政策效果，並進一步納入分量迴歸DID模型探討政策對不同房價分布的異質性影響。 實證結果顯示，囤房稅1.0實施後一年內，台北市房價相較新北市並未出現顯著下降，顯示政策短期效果有限。然而進一步區分時間後發現，在政策實施半年至一年內，台北市房價之上漲幅度相對新北市下跌約2.96%，提供了政策存在遞延效果之初步證據。分量回歸分析進一步指出，政策對低價住宅具有較強影響，第10分量之交乘項顯著為負，對應下跌幅度約3.69%。此現象可能與低總價住宅較易受到投資性持有者調節行為所影響有關，稅負成本提升促使部分投資人出場，進而對該價位段房價形成下修壓力。 至於囤房稅2.0部分，則採用事件研究法並以清華安富房價指數為依據，觀察政策實施後十個月內的房價異常成長率變動。結果顯示，在政策實施後無論即期或持續期間均未呈現顯著變動，顯示囤房稅2.0尚未對市場價格形成可觀察之短期影響。 綜合分析結果可見，目前囤房稅制度對房價抑制效果仍相當有限。建議未來政策設計應檢討現行房屋現值之評定方式，並搭配其他房市相關政策，以提升整體調控效能，促進住宅市場之健康發展。
This study investigates the impact of the hoarding tax policy on housing prices, focusing on two phases: Hoarding Tax 1.0 and Hoarding Tax 2.0. For Hoarding Tax 1.0, this study analyzes individual transaction data from Taiwan’s Ministry of the Interior Real Estate Registry, covering the period from July 2013 to June 2015. Taipei City, which implemented the policy in July 2014, is designated as the treatment group, while New Taipei City serves as the control group. To enhance estimation accuracy, we employ Propensity Score Matching to balance the sample, followed by a Difference-in-Differences approach to estimate average treatment effects. To further assess distributional heterogeneity, we incorporate quantile DID models to capture policy effects across different price segments. Empirical results suggest that housing prices in Taipei did not decline significantly relative to New Taipei following the implementation of the policy, indicating a limited short-term policy impact. However, when the post-policy period is further segmented, it is observed that during the 6 to 12 months after implementation, housing prices in Taipei increased less than those in New Taipei by approximately 2.96%, providing preliminary evidence of a delayed policy effect. Quantile regression results further reveal that the policy effect is more pronounced in the lower segment of the market. Specifically, the interaction term at the 10th quantile is significantly negative, corresponding to a relative decrease of about 3.69%. This may reflect greater sensitivity among low-price investment properties, where increased tax burdens reduce expected returns, thereby prompting owners to sell and driving down prices in that segment. For Hoarding Tax 2.0, the study adopts an event study methodology using the price index published by AIFE. Results show no statistically significant abnormal returns in the housing market within ten months following policy implementation, suggesting no immediate or sustained effect on prices. In summary, the results indicate that the current hoarding tax policy has had only a limited effect on curbing housing prices. It is recommended that future policy design revisit the existing method of assessed house values and be complemented with other housing-related measures to enhance overall regulatory effectiveness and promote a healthier housing market.參考文獻 王進祥，2012，論我國不動產稅制之改革及其影響，財產法暨經濟法，第30 期，頁109-153 石代維，2019，近年房屋稅徵收概況及稅制變動前後之比較，土地問題研究季刊，18卷2期，頁94-106 內政部秘書室，2020，數據顯示臺灣囤房問題有限 整體趨勢朝向均衡，內政部全球資訊網 呂哲源、江穎慧、張金鶚，2019，土壤液化潛勢區公布對房價之影響，都市與計畫，第四十六卷第一期，頁33-59 李春長、梁志民、林豐文，2017，捷運系統對鄰近住宅價格之影響—以差異中之差異法估計，台灣土地研究，第二十卷第二期，頁31-58 李春長、梁志民、簡珉、俞錚，2020，高雄市環狀輕軌對鄰近地區住宅價格之影響：以差異中之差異法結合分量迴歸模型之分析，台灣土地研究，第二十三卷第二期，頁195-221 李得全、羅煊、謝一鋒，2020，論居住正義及其解方：臺灣與臺北，台灣土地研究, 23卷2期，頁157–193 林左裕，2024，囤房稅引導有效供給 其他配套仍應強化，國立政治大學不動產研究中心，2024年第二期 胡偉民、陳嘉雯、羅光達，2016，結合決定事後影響評估之研究－以事件研究法為例，公平交易季刊，第24卷第4期，頁1-30 莊弘伃，2019，課徵空屋稅之評析，立法院全球資訊網 許義忠、陳建新、何姍嬬，2022，囤房稅能降低房價所得比嗎？ 合成控制法的應用，台灣土地研究，第二十五卷第二期，頁121-155 許義忠、劉奕呈，2023，房屋稅差別稅率對於房價的影響-差異中之差異法的應用，國立台中科技大學財稅系碩士論文 陳柏如，2015，臺灣房價與貸款成數、房屋使用者成本相關性的檢驗，經濟研究，51:2 (2015), 頁225-256 陳佳延、趙慕芬，2012，國內抑制房價政策對房地產交易影響-以台北市及新北市為例，淡江大學企業管理學系在職專班碩士論文 陳國樑，2024，囤房稅2.0的是是非非，國立政治大學不動產研究中心，2024年第二期 張金鶚，2016，居住正義－你我都能實現的理想，天下雜誌 粘毅群，2024，論囤房稅的稅基及課徵效果，月旦財稅實務釋評，第53期，頁47-52 彭建文、吳森田、吳祥華，2007，不動產有效稅率對房價影響分析— 以台北市大同區與內湖區為例，台灣土地研究，第十卷第二期，頁49-66 彭蒂菁，2021，醫療可及性是否左右房價？機器學習之迴歸樹及隨機森林模型的應用，應用經濟論叢，109期 黃歆容、陳國樑，2024，通勤月票對於公共運輸使用之影響－雙北1280月票與基北北桃1200月票之分析，國立政治大學財政學系碩士論文 楊屯山、林哲群、張金鶚，2022，總體審慎措施對房地產價量變化的影響，住宅學報，第三十一卷第二期，第29頁—62頁 楊子霆、林祐辰，2021，囤房稅對空屋率之影響，國立台灣大學經濟學研究所碩士論文 蔡鳳凰、伍大開、陳國樑、周德宇、黃勢璋，2021，退稅便利性與外籍旅客消費－臺北101內部資料分析，台灣經濟預測與政策，52卷1期，頁83-117 鍾麗娜，2022，房事糾葛「囤房稅」抑或囤房「睡」，土地問題研究季刊，21卷1期 ， 頁74-86 謝博明，2024，台積電擴大設廠是否帶動周圍地區房價上漲？ 以台南科學園區為例，住宅學報，第三十三卷第一期 簡淑芬，2012，不動產估價模型之研究—以臺中市為例，逢甲大學財稅學系學位論文，頁1-85。 蘇惠屏，2017，房屋稅條例課稅制度之分析—以評定現值及稅率為中心，財稅研究，46（3），頁47-73。 Abrams, D., 2021, Covid and crime: An Early Empirical Look, Journal of Public Economics, 194, 104344-104359 Andersson, H., 2005, “The Value of Safety as Revealed in the Swedish Car Market: An Application of the Hedonic Pricing Approach”, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 30: 211-239. 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國立政治大學
地政學系
112257004資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112257004 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 林左裕 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 吳秉儒 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Wu, Ping-Ju en_US dc.creator (作者) 吳秉儒 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Wu, Ping-Ju en_US dc.date (日期) 2025 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Sep-2025 14:33:45 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Sep-2025 14:33:45 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Sep-2025 14:33:45 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0112257004 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/158972 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 地政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 112257004 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究旨在探討囤房稅政策對房價之影響，區分為囤房稅1.0與囤房稅2.0兩階段進行實證分析。首先針對囤房稅1.0，選取2013年7月至2015年6月之內政部實價登錄個體交易資料，採用台北市為實驗組、新北市為控制組，透過傾向分數配對法進行樣本平衡處理後，結合差異中之差異法以估計政策效果，並進一步納入分量迴歸DID模型探討政策對不同房價分布的異質性影響。 實證結果顯示，囤房稅1.0實施後一年內，台北市房價相較新北市並未出現顯著下降，顯示政策短期效果有限。然而進一步區分時間後發現，在政策實施半年至一年內，台北市房價之上漲幅度相對新北市下跌約2.96%，提供了政策存在遞延效果之初步證據。分量回歸分析進一步指出，政策對低價住宅具有較強影響，第10分量之交乘項顯著為負，對應下跌幅度約3.69%。此現象可能與低總價住宅較易受到投資性持有者調節行為所影響有關，稅負成本提升促使部分投資人出場，進而對該價位段房價形成下修壓力。 至於囤房稅2.0部分，則採用事件研究法並以清華安富房價指數為依據，觀察政策實施後十個月內的房價異常成長率變動。結果顯示，在政策實施後無論即期或持續期間均未呈現顯著變動，顯示囤房稅2.0尚未對市場價格形成可觀察之短期影響。 綜合分析結果可見，目前囤房稅制度對房價抑制效果仍相當有限。建議未來政策設計應檢討現行房屋現值之評定方式，並搭配其他房市相關政策，以提升整體調控效能，促進住宅市場之健康發展。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study investigates the impact of the hoarding tax policy on housing prices, focusing on two phases: Hoarding Tax 1.0 and Hoarding Tax 2.0. For Hoarding Tax 1.0, this study analyzes individual transaction data from Taiwan’s Ministry of the Interior Real Estate Registry, covering the period from July 2013 to June 2015. Taipei City, which implemented the policy in July 2014, is designated as the treatment group, while New Taipei City serves as the control group. To enhance estimation accuracy, we employ Propensity Score Matching to balance the sample, followed by a Difference-in-Differences approach to estimate average treatment effects. To further assess distributional heterogeneity, we incorporate quantile DID models to capture policy effects across different price segments. Empirical results suggest that housing prices in Taipei did not decline significantly relative to New Taipei following the implementation of the policy, indicating a limited short-term policy impact. However, when the post-policy period is further segmented, it is observed that during the 6 to 12 months after implementation, housing prices in Taipei increased less than those in New Taipei by approximately 2.96%, providing preliminary evidence of a delayed policy effect. Quantile regression results further reveal that the policy effect is more pronounced in the lower segment of the market. Specifically, the interaction term at the 10th quantile is significantly negative, corresponding to a relative decrease of about 3.69%. This may reflect greater sensitivity among low-price investment properties, where increased tax burdens reduce expected returns, thereby prompting owners to sell and driving down prices in that segment. For Hoarding Tax 2.0, the study adopts an event study methodology using the price index published by AIFE. Results show no statistically significant abnormal returns in the housing market within ten months following policy implementation, suggesting no immediate or sustained effect on prices. In summary, the results indicate that the current hoarding tax policy has had only a limited effect on curbing housing prices. It is recommended that future policy design revisit the existing method of assessed house values and be complemented with other housing-related measures to enhance overall regulatory effectiveness and promote a healthier housing market. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 研究範圍與方法 5 第三節 研究架構與流程 8 第二章 文獻回顧 11 第一節 房屋稅之歷史脈絡 11 第二節 房屋稅相關文獻 19 第三節 特徵價格理論相關文獻 24 第四節 差異中之差異法相關文獻 26 第三章 研究設計與資料說明 29 第一節 研究設計 29 第二節 實證模型之建立 31 第三節 變數選取 39 第四節 資料篩選與清理 47 第四章 實證結果與分析 51 第一節 囤房稅1.0之實證結果 51 第二節 囤房稅2.0之實證結果 74 第五章 結論與建議 77 第一節 研究結論 77 第二節 建議 81 參考文獻 83 zh_TW dc.format.extent 3016043 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112257004 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 囤房稅 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 傾向分數配對 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 差異中之差異法 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 分量迴歸 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 事件研究法 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Hoarding tax en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Propensity score matching en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Difference-in-differences en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Quantile regression en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Event study en_US dc.title (題名) 囤房稅對房價之影響 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Impact of Hoarding Tax on Housing Prices en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 王進祥，2012，論我國不動產稅制之改革及其影響，財產法暨經濟法，第30 期，頁109-153 石代維，2019，近年房屋稅徵收概況及稅制變動前後之比較，土地問題研究季刊，18卷2期，頁94-106 內政部秘書室，2020，數據顯示臺灣囤房問題有限 整體趨勢朝向均衡，內政部全球資訊網 呂哲源、江穎慧、張金鶚，2019，土壤液化潛勢區公布對房價之影響，都市與計畫，第四十六卷第一期，頁33-59 李春長、梁志民、林豐文，2017，捷運系統對鄰近住宅價格之影響—以差異中之差異法估計，台灣土地研究，第二十卷第二期，頁31-58 李春長、梁志民、簡珉、俞錚，2020，高雄市環狀輕軌對鄰近地區住宅價格之影響：以差異中之差異法結合分量迴歸模型之分析，台灣土地研究，第二十三卷第二期，頁195-221 李得全、羅煊、謝一鋒，2020，論居住正義及其解方：臺灣與臺北，台灣土地研究, 23卷2期，頁157–193 林左裕，2024，囤房稅引導有效供給 其他配套仍應強化，國立政治大學不動產研究中心，2024年第二期 胡偉民、陳嘉雯、羅光達，2016，結合決定事後影響評估之研究－以事件研究法為例，公平交易季刊，第24卷第4期，頁1-30 莊弘伃，2019，課徵空屋稅之評析，立法院全球資訊網 許義忠、陳建新、何姍嬬，2022，囤房稅能降低房價所得比嗎？ 合成控制法的應用，台灣土地研究，第二十五卷第二期，頁121-155 許義忠、劉奕呈，2023，房屋稅差別稅率對於房價的影響-差異中之差異法的應用，國立台中科技大學財稅系碩士論文 陳柏如，2015，臺灣房價與貸款成數、房屋使用者成本相關性的檢驗，經濟研究，51:2 (2015), 頁225-256 陳佳延、趙慕芬，2012，國內抑制房價政策對房地產交易影響-以台北市及新北市為例，淡江大學企業管理學系在職專班碩士論文 陳國樑，2024，囤房稅2.0的是是非非，國立政治大學不動產研究中心，2024年第二期 張金鶚，2016，居住正義－你我都能實現的理想，天下雜誌 粘毅群，2024，論囤房稅的稅基及課徵效果，月旦財稅實務釋評，第53期，頁47-52 彭建文、吳森田、吳祥華，2007，不動產有效稅率對房價影響分析— 以台北市大同區與內湖區為例，台灣土地研究，第十卷第二期，頁49-66 彭蒂菁，2021，醫療可及性是否左右房價？機器學習之迴歸樹及隨機森林模型的應用，應用經濟論叢，109期 黃歆容、陳國樑，2024，通勤月票對於公共運輸使用之影響－雙北1280月票與基北北桃1200月票之分析，國立政治大學財政學系碩士論文 楊屯山、林哲群、張金鶚，2022，總體審慎措施對房地產價量變化的影響，住宅學報，第三十一卷第二期，第29頁—62頁 楊子霆、林祐辰，2021，囤房稅對空屋率之影響，國立台灣大學經濟學研究所碩士論文 蔡鳳凰、伍大開、陳國樑、周德宇、黃勢璋，2021，退稅便利性與外籍旅客消費－臺北101內部資料分析，台灣經濟預測與政策，52卷1期，頁83-117 鍾麗娜，2022，房事糾葛「囤房稅」抑或囤房「睡」，土地問題研究季刊，21卷1期 ， 頁74-86 謝博明，2024，台積電擴大設廠是否帶動周圍地區房價上漲？ 以台南科學園區為例，住宅學報，第三十三卷第一期 簡淑芬，2012，不動產估價模型之研究—以臺中市為例，逢甲大學財稅學系學位論文，頁1-85。 蘇惠屏，2017，房屋稅條例課稅制度之分析—以評定現值及稅率為中心，財稅研究，46（3），頁47-73。 Abrams, D., 2021, Covid and crime: An Early Empirical Look, Journal of Public Economics, 194, 104344-104359 Andersson, H., 2005, “The Value of Safety as Revealed in the Swedish Car Market: An Application of the Hedonic Pricing Approach”, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 30: 211-239. 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