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題名 台灣對外直接投資額對於國際貿易額之影響在中美貿易戰前後於各地區效果之變化
The Impact of Taiwan's Outward Foreign Direct Investment on International Trade: Regional Effects Before and After the China-U.S. Trade War
作者 朱育呈
Chu, Yu-Cheng
貢獻者 蔡致遠
Tsai, Chi-Yuan
朱育呈
Chu, Yu-Cheng
關鍵詞 對外直接投資
國際貿易
中美貿易戰
引力模型
Foreign Direct Investment
International Trade
U.S.–China Trade War
Gravity Model
日期 2025
上傳時間 1-Sep-2025 14:55:34 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究旨在探討台灣對外直接投資（Foreign Direct Investment, FDI）對國際貿易額的影響，特別關注中美貿易戰前後在不同地區是否產生異質性效果。本文以2016至2019年為研究期間，以引力模型（Gravity Model）為基礎去建構本研究的模型，而估計方法則使用固定效果模型及Poisson 固定效果模型，探討FDI與台灣出口、進口、出口附加價值、中間財與最終財出口之關聯性。研究發現，台灣對中國的FDI在貿易戰後顯示出與出口額之間的替代效果，而對東協地區的投資則更傾向產生互補效應，顯示生產基地轉移對出口結構具有重大影響。此外，對不同區域的FDI與貿易之關係具有明顯異質性，政策與地緣風險亦是影響貿易與投資互動的重要因素。本研究有助於理解FDI對貿易的多重效果，並為企業布局與政府政策提供實證依據。
This study aims to examine the impact of Taiwan’s outward foreign direct investment (FDI) on international trade flows, with a particular focus on whether heterogeneous effects emerged across different regions before and after the U.S.–China trade war. Using data from 2016 to 2019, the study adopts the gravity model as the theoretical framework and employs both fixed effects and Poisson fixed effects estimation methods. The analysis explores the relationship between FDI and Taiwan’s total exports, imports, export value-added, as well as intermediate and final goods exports. The empirical findings suggest a substitution effect between Taiwan’s FDI in China and its export volume following the onset of the trade war, while FDI directed toward ASEAN countries tends to exhibit a complementary effect. This indicates that the relocation of production bases significantly influences the structure of Taiwan’s exports. Furthermore, the relationship between FDI and trade differs markedly across regions, highlighting the critical role of policy frameworks and geopolitical risks in shaping trade–investment dynamics. This study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the multifaceted effects of FDI on trade and offers empirical evidence to inform corporate strategic planning and government policymaking.
參考文獻 中文文獻 1. 吳玉瑩、黃士真（2015）。臺灣對外投資帶動貿易效果之分析。《經濟前瞻》，75-80。 2. 洪御豪（2021）。中美貿易戰對台灣出口貿易的影響研究。國立中正大學經濟學系國際經濟學碩士論文。 3. 李淳、顏慧欣、楊書菲（2021）。美中貿易戰之趨勢及對臺灣投資與貿易結構之影響。《遠景基金會季刊，TSSCI核心期刊》，22(2)，1–24。 4. 張淑貞（2004）。臺灣食品業對大陸投資與貿易間交互關係之研究。《農業經濟半年刊》，76，19–49。 5. 陳俐俐（2009）。台灣對外直接投資與出口貿易之互動關係分析。國立台北大學經濟系碩士論文。 6. 鄭貴隆（2010）。台灣紡織業對外直接投資與貿易之相關性研究。《華人前瞻研究》，6(1)，25–38。 7. 梁文軒（2022）。新南向政策後臺灣對外直接投資金額與進出口量關聯性之研究。國立中正大學經濟學系碩士論文。 英文文獻 1. Anderson, J. E. (1979). A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation. American Economic Review, 69(1), 106–116. 2. Anderson, J. E. (2011). The gravity model. Annual Review of Economics, 3(1), 133–160. 3. Anderson, J. E., & van Wincoop, E. (2003). Gravity with gravitas: A solution to the border puzzle. American Economic Review, 93(1), 170–192. 4. Bagchi, S., & Bhattacharyya, S. (2019). Country-specific determinants of intra-industry trade in India. Foreign Trade Review, 54(3), 129–158. 5. Baier, S. L., & Bergstrand, J. H. (2007). Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade? Journal of International Economics, 71(1), 72–95. 6. Bergstrand, J. H. (1985). The gravity equation in international trade: Some microeconomic foundations and empirical evidence. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67(3), 474–481. 7. Bergstrand, J. H. (1989). The generalized gravity equation, monopolistic competition, and the factor proportions theory in international trade. Review of Economics and Statistics, 71(1), 143–153. 8. Blomström, M., Lipsey, R. E., & Kulchycky, K. (1988). U.S. and Swedish direct investment and exports. In R. E. Baldwin (Ed.), Trade policy issues and empirical analysis (pp. 259–297). University of Chicago Press. 9. Blonigen, B. A. (2001). In search of substitution between foreign production and exports. Journal of International Economics, 53(1), 81–104. 10. Brainard, S. L. (1993). A simple theory of multinational corporations and trade with a trade off between proximity and concentration (NBER Working Paper No. 4269). National Bureau of Economic Research. 11. Brülhart, M. (2009). An account of global intra‐industry trade, 1962–2006. The World Economy, 32(3), 401–459. 12. Choi, B.-Y., & Nguyen, T. L. (2023). Trade diversion effects of the US–China trade war on Vietnam. Pacific Economic Review, 28(4), 570–588. 13. Dunning, J. H. (1998). Location and the multinational enterprise: A neglected factor? Journal of International Business Studies, 29(1), 45–66. 14. Egger, P. (2001). European exports and outward foreign direct investment: A dynamic panel data approach. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv (Review of World Economics), 137(3), 427–449. 15. Fajgelbaum, P. D., Goldberg, P. K., Kennedy, P. J., Khandelwal, A. K., & Taglioni, D. (2024). The US–China trade war and global reallocations. American Economic Review: Insights, 6(2), 295–312. 16. Faustino, H. C., & Leitão, N. C. (2011). Determinants of vertical intra-industry trade in the automobile components industry: Globalization and fragmentation. Argumenta Oeconomica, 27(2), 126–141. 17. Gopinath, M., Pick, D. H., & Vasavada, U. (1999). The economics of foreign direct investment and trade with an application to the U.S. food processing industry. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 81(2), 442–452. 18. Gray, H. P. (1998). Do foreign direct investment and trade substitute or complement each other? A review of the arguments. Kiel Working Paper No. 890. Kiel Institute for the World Economy. 19. Heckscher, E. F. (1919/1949). The effect of foreign trade on the distribution of income. Ekonomisk Tidskrift, 497–512. Reprinted in A. E. A. (Ed.), Readings in the theory of international trade (pp. 272–300). 20. Helpman, E. (1984). A simple theory of international trade with multinational corporations. Journal of Political Economy, 92(3), 451–471. 21. Helpman, E., & Krugman, P. R. (1985). Market structure and foreign trade: Increasing returns, imperfect competition, and the international economy (Chap. 11). MIT Press. 22. Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1997). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels (Working Paper). University of Cambridge, Department of Applied Economics. 23. International Monetary Fund. (2023). Trade diversion effects from global tensions—Higher than we think (IMF Working Paper No. 2023/234). IMF. 24. Johanson, J., & Wiedersheim-Paul, F. (1975). The internationalization of the firm: Four Swedish cases. Journal of Management Studies, 12(3), 249–341. 25. Leitão, N. C. (2024). Gravity model and international trade: A survey of the literature. Administrative Sciences, 14(9), Article 219. 26. Lipsey, R. E., & Ramstetter, E. D. (2001). Affiliate activity in Japanese and U.S. multinationals and Japanese exports, 1986–1995 (NBER Working Paper No. 8581). National Bureau of Economic Research. 27. Lipsey, R. E., & Weiss, M. Y. (1981). Foreign production and exports in manufacturing industries. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 63(3), 488–494. 28. Lipsey, R. E., & Weiss, M. Y. (1984). Foreign production and exports of individual firms. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 66(2), 304–308. 29. Liu, X., Wang, C., & Wei, Y. (2001). Causal links between foreign direct investment and trade in China. China Economic Review, 12(2–3), 190–202. 30. Markusen, J. R., & Venables, A. J. (1995). Multinational firms and the new trade theory (NBER Working Paper No. 5036). National Bureau of Economic Research. 31. Markusen, J. R., & Venables, A. J. (1998). Multinational firms and the new trade theory. Journal of International Economics, 46(2), 183–203. 32. Mundell, R. A. (1957). International trade and factor mobility. American Economic Review, 47(3), 321–335. 33. Pain, N., & Wakelin, K. (1998). Export performance and the role of foreign direct investment. The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, 66(0), 62–88. 34. Pfaffermayr, M. (1996). Foreign outward direct investment and exports in Austrian manufacturing: Substitutes or complements? Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 132(3), 501–522. 35. Santos Silva, J. M. C., & Tenreyro, S. (2006). The log of gravity. Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(4), 641–658. 36. Schmitz, A., & Helmberger, P. (1970). Factor mobility and international trade: The case of complementarity. American Economic Review, 60(4), 761–767. 37. Sharma, S., & Lahiri, S. (2024). The heterogeneous effects of size on internal migration in the United States: A gravity analysis. [Working paper]. SSRN. 38. Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the world economy: Suggestions for an international economic policy. Twentieth Century Fund. 39. Vernon, R. (1966). International investment and international trade in the product cycle. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 80(2), 190–207. 40. Yotov, Y. V., Piermartini, R., Monteiro, J.-A., & Larch, M. (2016). An advanced guide to trade policy analysis: The structural gravity model. Geneva: World Trade Organization.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易學系
112351038
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112351038
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 蔡致遠zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Tsai, Chi-Yuanen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 朱育呈zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chu, Yu-Chengen_US
dc.creator (作者) 朱育呈zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chu, Yu-Chengen_US
dc.date (日期) 2025en_US
dc.date.accessioned 1-Sep-2025 14:55:34 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 1-Sep-2025 14:55:34 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Sep-2025 14:55:34 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0112351038en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/159062-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際經營與貿易學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 112351038zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究旨在探討台灣對外直接投資（Foreign Direct Investment, FDI）對國際貿易額的影響，特別關注中美貿易戰前後在不同地區是否產生異質性效果。本文以2016至2019年為研究期間，以引力模型（Gravity Model）為基礎去建構本研究的模型，而估計方法則使用固定效果模型及Poisson 固定效果模型，探討FDI與台灣出口、進口、出口附加價值、中間財與最終財出口之關聯性。研究發現，台灣對中國的FDI在貿易戰後顯示出與出口額之間的替代效果，而對東協地區的投資則更傾向產生互補效應，顯示生產基地轉移對出口結構具有重大影響。此外，對不同區域的FDI與貿易之關係具有明顯異質性，政策與地緣風險亦是影響貿易與投資互動的重要因素。本研究有助於理解FDI對貿易的多重效果，並為企業布局與政府政策提供實證依據。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study aims to examine the impact of Taiwan’s outward foreign direct investment (FDI) on international trade flows, with a particular focus on whether heterogeneous effects emerged across different regions before and after the U.S.–China trade war. Using data from 2016 to 2019, the study adopts the gravity model as the theoretical framework and employs both fixed effects and Poisson fixed effects estimation methods. The analysis explores the relationship between FDI and Taiwan’s total exports, imports, export value-added, as well as intermediate and final goods exports. The empirical findings suggest a substitution effect between Taiwan’s FDI in China and its export volume following the onset of the trade war, while FDI directed toward ASEAN countries tends to exhibit a complementary effect. This indicates that the relocation of production bases significantly influences the structure of Taiwan’s exports. Furthermore, the relationship between FDI and trade differs markedly across regions, highlighting the critical role of policy frameworks and geopolitical risks in shaping trade–investment dynamics. This study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the multifaceted effects of FDI on trade and offers empirical evidence to inform corporate strategic planning and government policymaking.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論1 第一節 研究背景1 第二節 研究動機及目的2 第三節 研究架構4 第二章 文獻回顧5 第一節 直接對外投資與貿易之間的關係5 第二節 中美貿易戰對投資及貿易之影響10 第三節 引力模型11 第三章 中美貿易戰與貿易轉移之影響14 第一節 中美貿易戰之起因14 第二節 中美貿易戰之演進過程14 第三節　政策演變與實際影響15 第四節　貿易轉移之現象16 第五節　中美貿易戰對本研究的重要性17 第四章　實證模型與研究方法18 第一節　資料來源及樣本篩選18 第二節　模型建立19 一、引力模型19 二、加入FDI與中美貿易戰虛擬變數的交乘效果20 三、固定效果模型加入FDI與地區的交乘效果21 第三節 變數說明23 第五章 實證結果分析26 第一節 敘述統計26 第二節 實證統計結果分析28 第三節 實證結果穩健性檢驗38 第六章 結論47 參考文獻48zh_TW
dc.format.extent 892847 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112351038en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 對外直接投資zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 國際貿易zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中美貿易戰zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 引力模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Foreign Direct Investmenten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) International Tradeen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) U.S.–China Trade Waren_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Gravity Modelen_US
dc.title (題名) 台灣對外直接投資額對於國際貿易額之影響在中美貿易戰前後於各地區效果之變化zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Impact of Taiwan's Outward Foreign Direct Investment on International Trade: Regional Effects Before and After the China-U.S. Trade Waren_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文文獻 1. 吳玉瑩、黃士真（2015）。臺灣對外投資帶動貿易效果之分析。《經濟前瞻》，75-80。 2. 洪御豪（2021）。中美貿易戰對台灣出口貿易的影響研究。國立中正大學經濟學系國際經濟學碩士論文。 3. 李淳、顏慧欣、楊書菲（2021）。美中貿易戰之趨勢及對臺灣投資與貿易結構之影響。《遠景基金會季刊，TSSCI核心期刊》，22(2)，1–24。 4. 張淑貞（2004）。臺灣食品業對大陸投資與貿易間交互關係之研究。《農業經濟半年刊》，76，19–49。 5. 陳俐俐（2009）。台灣對外直接投資與出口貿易之互動關係分析。國立台北大學經濟系碩士論文。 6. 鄭貴隆（2010）。台灣紡織業對外直接投資與貿易之相關性研究。《華人前瞻研究》，6(1)，25–38。 7. 梁文軒（2022）。新南向政策後臺灣對外直接投資金額與進出口量關聯性之研究。國立中正大學經濟學系碩士論文。 英文文獻 1. Anderson, J. E. (1979). A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation. American Economic Review, 69(1), 106–116. 2. Anderson, J. E. (2011). The gravity model. Annual Review of Economics, 3(1), 133–160. 3. Anderson, J. E., & van Wincoop, E. (2003). Gravity with gravitas: A solution to the border puzzle. American Economic Review, 93(1), 170–192. 4. Bagchi, S., & Bhattacharyya, S. (2019). Country-specific determinants of intra-industry trade in India. Foreign Trade Review, 54(3), 129–158. 5. Baier, S. L., & Bergstrand, J. H. (2007). Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade? Journal of International Economics, 71(1), 72–95. 6. Bergstrand, J. H. (1985). The gravity equation in international trade: Some microeconomic foundations and empirical evidence. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67(3), 474–481. 7. Bergstrand, J. H. (1989). The generalized gravity equation, monopolistic competition, and the factor proportions theory in international trade. Review of Economics and Statistics, 71(1), 143–153. 8. Blomström, M., Lipsey, R. E., & Kulchycky, K. (1988). U.S. and Swedish direct investment and exports. In R. E. Baldwin (Ed.), Trade policy issues and empirical analysis (pp. 259–297). University of Chicago Press. 9. Blonigen, B. A. (2001). In search of substitution between foreign production and exports. Journal of International Economics, 53(1), 81–104. 10. Brainard, S. L. (1993). A simple theory of multinational corporations and trade with a trade off between proximity and concentration (NBER Working Paper No. 4269). National Bureau of Economic Research. 11. Brülhart, M. (2009). An account of global intra‐industry trade, 1962–2006. The World Economy, 32(3), 401–459. 12. Choi, B.-Y., & Nguyen, T. L. (2023). Trade diversion effects of the US–China trade war on Vietnam. Pacific Economic Review, 28(4), 570–588. 13. Dunning, J. H. (1998). Location and the multinational enterprise: A neglected factor? Journal of International Business Studies, 29(1), 45–66. 14. Egger, P. (2001). European exports and outward foreign direct investment: A dynamic panel data approach. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv (Review of World Economics), 137(3), 427–449. 15. Fajgelbaum, P. D., Goldberg, P. K., Kennedy, P. J., Khandelwal, A. K., & Taglioni, D. (2024). The US–China trade war and global reallocations. American Economic Review: Insights, 6(2), 295–312. 16. Faustino, H. C., & Leitão, N. C. (2011). Determinants of vertical intra-industry trade in the automobile components industry: Globalization and fragmentation. Argumenta Oeconomica, 27(2), 126–141. 17. Gopinath, M., Pick, D. H., & Vasavada, U. (1999). The economics of foreign direct investment and trade with an application to the U.S. food processing industry. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 81(2), 442–452. 18. Gray, H. P. (1998). Do foreign direct investment and trade substitute or complement each other? A review of the arguments. Kiel Working Paper No. 890. Kiel Institute for the World Economy. 19. Heckscher, E. F. (1919/1949). The effect of foreign trade on the distribution of income. Ekonomisk Tidskrift, 497–512. Reprinted in A. E. A. (Ed.), Readings in the theory of international trade (pp. 272–300). 20. Helpman, E. (1984). A simple theory of international trade with multinational corporations. Journal of Political Economy, 92(3), 451–471. 21. Helpman, E., & Krugman, P. R. (1985). Market structure and foreign trade: Increasing returns, imperfect competition, and the international economy (Chap. 11). MIT Press. 22. Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1997). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels (Working Paper). University of Cambridge, Department of Applied Economics. 23. International Monetary Fund. (2023). Trade diversion effects from global tensions—Higher than we think (IMF Working Paper No. 2023/234). IMF. 24. Johanson, J., & Wiedersheim-Paul, F. (1975). The internationalization of the firm: Four Swedish cases. Journal of Management Studies, 12(3), 249–341. 25. Leitão, N. C. (2024). Gravity model and international trade: A survey of the literature. Administrative Sciences, 14(9), Article 219. 26. Lipsey, R. E., & Ramstetter, E. D. (2001). Affiliate activity in Japanese and U.S. multinationals and Japanese exports, 1986–1995 (NBER Working Paper No. 8581). National Bureau of Economic Research. 27. Lipsey, R. E., & Weiss, M. Y. (1981). Foreign production and exports in manufacturing industries. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 63(3), 488–494. 28. Lipsey, R. E., & Weiss, M. Y. (1984). Foreign production and exports of individual firms. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 66(2), 304–308. 29. Liu, X., Wang, C., & Wei, Y. (2001). Causal links between foreign direct investment and trade in China. China Economic Review, 12(2–3), 190–202. 30. Markusen, J. R., & Venables, A. J. (1995). Multinational firms and the new trade theory (NBER Working Paper No. 5036). National Bureau of Economic Research. 31. Markusen, J. R., & Venables, A. J. (1998). Multinational firms and the new trade theory. Journal of International Economics, 46(2), 183–203. 32. Mundell, R. A. (1957). International trade and factor mobility. American Economic Review, 47(3), 321–335. 33. Pain, N., & Wakelin, K. (1998). Export performance and the role of foreign direct investment. The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, 66(0), 62–88. 34. Pfaffermayr, M. (1996). Foreign outward direct investment and exports in Austrian manufacturing: Substitutes or complements? Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 132(3), 501–522. 35. Santos Silva, J. M. C., & Tenreyro, S. (2006). The log of gravity. Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(4), 641–658. 36. Schmitz, A., & Helmberger, P. (1970). Factor mobility and international trade: The case of complementarity. American Economic Review, 60(4), 761–767. 37. Sharma, S., & Lahiri, S. (2024). The heterogeneous effects of size on internal migration in the United States: A gravity analysis. [Working paper]. SSRN. 38. Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the world economy: Suggestions for an international economic policy. Twentieth Century Fund. 39. Vernon, R. (1966). International investment and international trade in the product cycle. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 80(2), 190–207. 40. Yotov, Y. V., Piermartini, R., Monteiro, J.-A., & Larch, M. (2016). An advanced guide to trade policy analysis: The structural gravity model. Geneva: World Trade Organization.zh_TW