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題名 海外經驗對台灣職業籃球隊勝率之影響 : 以 2023–24 年 P. LEAGUE+球季為例
The Impact of Overseas Experience on Team Win Rates in Taiwanese Professional Basketball: Evidence from the 2023–24 P. LEAGUE+ Season作者 潘向蔚
Pan, Hsiang-Wei貢獻者 吳文傑
Wu, Wen-Chieh
潘向蔚
Pan, Hsiang-Wei關鍵詞 海外經驗
P. LEAGUE+
勝率分析
固定效果
邏輯迴歸
球員發展
Overseas experience
P. LEAGUE+
Win probability
Fixed effects
Logistic regression
Player development日期 2025 上傳時間 1-Sep-2025 15:21:43 (UTC+8) 摘要 本研究探討海外經驗(NCAA-only、CBA-only 或兩者兼具)對台灣職 業籃球聯賽 P. LEAGUE+ 球隊勝率之影響。儘管過去研究認為海外歷 練可提升球員競技能力，但對於不同類型海外經驗在返國後的實質影 響仍缺乏實證檢證。本研究以 2023–24 年度 P. LEAGUE+ 例行賽為 對象，聚焦於具有海外背景的台灣返國球員，分析其個人表現與團隊 技術差異對比賽結果之貢獻。 研究使用官方比賽數據，透過邏輯斯迴歸分析、勝率比估計與邊際效 應分析，分別建構海外經驗模型、團隊技術差異模型、整合模型與固 定效果模型。結果顯示，CBA-only 經驗在未控制其他變數時對勝率具 顯著正向影響，但在納入團隊及個人技術表現後影響力消失。團隊層 級指標(如投籃效率、籃板、失誤控制)為勝率的最穩定預測因素， 而球員個人技術表現控制固定效果後，其獨立影響力顯著減弱。此 外，部分球員即使未在傳統統計數據中突出，仍能穩定提升球隊勝 率，顯示無形特質如領導力、防守意識的重要性。 本研究對球隊人員招募、戰術規劃與球員培養提供實務啟示，並建議 未來研究可擴大樣本至未旅外球員，並引入進階數據與質性觀察，以 更完整評估海外經驗與球員價值之關聯。
This study examines the impact of overseas experience (NCAA-only, CBA- only, or both) on team win probability in Taiwan’s professional basketball league, P. LEAGUE+. Although prior literature suggests that overseas experience enhances athletic performance, there is limited empirical research evaluating its direct effect upon returning to domestic leagues. Focusing exclusively on players with overseas backgrounds, this study analyzes how different types of experience, along with team-level technical differentials, influence game outcomes during the 2023–24 P. LEAGUE+ regular season. Using official game data, the study employs logistic regression models, odds ratio estimations, and marginal effects analysis. The analysis sequentially incorporates overseas experience models, team technical differential models, integrated models, and fixed effects models. Results show that CBA-only experience initially correlates positively with win probability, but the effect diminishes once team and individual performances are controlled. Team- level metrics, such as shooting efficiency, rebounding, and turnover control, emerge as the most stable predictors of victory. Meanwhile, the explanatory power of individual technical statistics weakens after accounting for player fixed effects. Additionally, certain players consistently contribute to wins through intangible traits like leadership and defensive awareness, even when traditional box score data do not reflect their impact. This study provides practical implications for player recruitment, strategic planning, and player development. Future research should expand the sample to include domestic-only players and integrate advanced performance metrics and qualitative observations to better understand the relationship between overseas experience and player value.參考文獻 Elliott, R., & Weedon, G. (2011). Foreign players in the English Premier Academy League: ‘Feet-drain’ or ‘feet-exchange’? International Review for the Sociology of Sport, 46(1), 61–75. https://doi.org/10.1177/1012690210378268 Gómez, M. A., Lorenzo, A., Sampaio, J., Ibáñez, S. J., & Ortega, E. (2016). Game-related statistics which discriminate between winning and losing under-16 male basketball games. Journal of Sports Science & Medicine, 5(1), 105–112. Ibáñez, S. J., García, J., Feu, S., Lorenzo, A., & Sampaio, J. (2008). Shot effectiveness in elite basketball according to situational variables: A multilevel approach. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 8(3), 103–113. Lakić, D., Đurić, S., & Pavlović, L. (2024). Impact of foreign players on team performance in EuroLeague basketball: A comparative analysis. PLOS ONE, 19(1), e0281234. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0281234 Liberty Times. (2021, August 17). 高國豪轉戰新竹攻城獅簽下千萬合約. 自由時報電 子報. https://sports.ltn.com.tw/news/breakingnews/3635352 Maguire, J. (1999). Global sport: Identities, societies, civilizations. Polity Press. Omidiran, M. (2013). Penalized regression models for estimating player contributions in basketball. arXiv preprint. https://arxiv.org/abs/1309.1955 Paulauskas, R., Paulauskas, L., Kreivyte, R., & Eimontas, J. (2024). Comparative analysis of national and foreign players' performance in Euroleague basketball. PLOS ONE, 19(1), e0281234. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0281234 Pedicelli, A. (2015). Contract year effect in the NBA: Empirical evidence from an individual fixed effects approach (Master’s thesis, University of Amsterdam). https://scripties.uba.uva.nl/document/627540 Richardson, D., Littlewood, M., Nesti, M., & Benstead, L. (2012). An examination of the migratory transition of elite young European soccer players to the English Premier League. Journal of Sports Sciences, 30(15), 1605–1618. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2012.709263 Roderick, M. (2013). Domestic moves: An exploration of intra-national labour mobility in the working lives of professional footballers. International Review for the Sociology of Sport, 48(4), 387–404. https://doi.org/10.1177/1012690212440197 Sampaio, J., McGarry, T., Calleja-González, J., Sáez de Villarreal, E., & Ibáñez, S. J. (2010). Exploring game performance in the National Basketball Association using player tracking data. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 10(3), 317–331. Wang, G.-Y., Liu, H., Gómez, M.-A., & Cui, Y. (2022). Differences in the performance profiles between native and foreign players in the Chinese Basketball Association. Frontiers in Psychology, 13, 788498. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.788498 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
112266006資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112266006 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 吳文傑 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Wu, Wen-Chieh en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 潘向蔚 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Pan, Hsiang-Wei en_US dc.creator (作者) 潘向蔚 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Pan, Hsiang-Wei en_US dc.date (日期) 2025 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Sep-2025 15:21:43 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Sep-2025 15:21:43 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Sep-2025 15:21:43 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0112266006 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/159147 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 112266006 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究探討海外經驗(NCAA-only、CBA-only 或兩者兼具)對台灣職 業籃球聯賽 P. LEAGUE+ 球隊勝率之影響。儘管過去研究認為海外歷 練可提升球員競技能力，但對於不同類型海外經驗在返國後的實質影 響仍缺乏實證檢證。本研究以 2023–24 年度 P. LEAGUE+ 例行賽為 對象，聚焦於具有海外背景的台灣返國球員，分析其個人表現與團隊 技術差異對比賽結果之貢獻。 研究使用官方比賽數據，透過邏輯斯迴歸分析、勝率比估計與邊際效 應分析，分別建構海外經驗模型、團隊技術差異模型、整合模型與固 定效果模型。結果顯示，CBA-only 經驗在未控制其他變數時對勝率具 顯著正向影響，但在納入團隊及個人技術表現後影響力消失。團隊層 級指標(如投籃效率、籃板、失誤控制)為勝率的最穩定預測因素， 而球員個人技術表現控制固定效果後，其獨立影響力顯著減弱。此 外，部分球員即使未在傳統統計數據中突出，仍能穩定提升球隊勝 率，顯示無形特質如領導力、防守意識的重要性。 本研究對球隊人員招募、戰術規劃與球員培養提供實務啟示，並建議 未來研究可擴大樣本至未旅外球員，並引入進階數據與質性觀察，以 更完整評估海外經驗與球員價值之關聯。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study examines the impact of overseas experience (NCAA-only, CBA- only, or both) on team win probability in Taiwan’s professional basketball league, P. LEAGUE+. Although prior literature suggests that overseas experience enhances athletic performance, there is limited empirical research evaluating its direct effect upon returning to domestic leagues. Focusing exclusively on players with overseas backgrounds, this study analyzes how different types of experience, along with team-level technical differentials, influence game outcomes during the 2023–24 P. LEAGUE+ regular season. Using official game data, the study employs logistic regression models, odds ratio estimations, and marginal effects analysis. The analysis sequentially incorporates overseas experience models, team technical differential models, integrated models, and fixed effects models. Results show that CBA-only experience initially correlates positively with win probability, but the effect diminishes once team and individual performances are controlled. Team- level metrics, such as shooting efficiency, rebounding, and turnover control, emerge as the most stable predictors of victory. Meanwhile, the explanatory power of individual technical statistics weakens after accounting for player fixed effects. Additionally, certain players consistently contribute to wins through intangible traits like leadership and defensive awareness, even when traditional box score data do not reflect their impact. This study provides practical implications for player recruitment, strategic planning, and player development. Future research should expand the sample to include domestic-only players and integrate advanced performance metrics and qualitative observations to better understand the relationship between overseas experience and player value. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background and Motivation 1 1.2 Research Purpose 2 1.3 Research Questions 3 1.4 Significance of the Study 3 1.5 Research Limitations 4 1.6 Framework 5 CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 6 2.1 The Impact of Overseas Experience on Player Performance 6 2.2 Performance Impact After Returning to Domestic Leagues 7 2.3 The Relationship Between Team Technical Performance and Win Rate 8 2.4 Gaps in Existing Literature 8 2.5 Summary of Key Insights 9 CHAPTER 3. METHODOLOGY 11 3.1 Development of Testable Hypotheses 11 3.2 Research Methodology – Research Design 13 3.2.1 Model Specification 15 3.3 Data and Sample 16 3.4 Empirical Models 20 CHAPTER 4. RESULTS 23 4.1 Model 1: Overseas Experience and Player Performance 23 4.1.1 Descriptive Statistics 24 4.1.2 Correlation Matrix 26 4.1.3 Logistic Regression Results 27 4.1.4 Odds Ratio Analysis 29 4.1.5 Marginal Effects Analysis 31 4.2 Model 2: Team Technical Differentials 33 4.2.1 Descriptive Statistics 34 4.2.2 Correlation Matrix 35 4.2.3 Logistic Regression Results 37 4.2.4 Odds Ratio Analysis 39 4.2.5 Marginal Effects Analysis 41 4.3 Model 3: Overseas Experience and Team Performance Differentials 43 4.3.1 Descriptive Statistics 44 4.3.3 Logistic Regression Results 45 4.3.4 Odds Ratio Analysis 47 4.3.5 Marginal Effects Analysis 49 4.4 Model 4: Overseas Experience, Team, and Player Performance 52 4.4.1 Descriptive Statistics 52 4.4.2 Correlation Matrix 53 4.4.3 Logistic Regression Results 53 4.4.4 Odds Ratio Analysis 55 4.4.5 Marginal Effects Analysis 57 4.5 Model 5: Technical Performance with Player Fixed Effects 59 4.5.1 Descriptive Statistics 60 4.5.2 Correlation Matrix 60 4.5.3 Logistic Regression Results 60 4.5.4 Odds Ratio Analysis 63 4.5.5 Marginal Effects Analysis 65 CHAPTER 5. CONCLUSION 67 5.1 Hypothesis Verification and Summary of Findings 67 5.2 Future Research Directions 69 5.3 Practical Implications 70 REFERENCES 73 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1353745 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112266006 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 海外經驗 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) P. LEAGUE+ zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 勝率分析 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 固定效果 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 邏輯迴歸 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 球員發展 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Overseas experience en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) P. LEAGUE+ en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Win probability en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Fixed effects en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Logistic regression en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Player development en_US dc.title (題名) 海外經驗對台灣職業籃球隊勝率之影響 : 以 2023–24 年 P. LEAGUE+球季為例 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Impact of Overseas Experience on Team Win Rates in Taiwanese Professional Basketball: Evidence from the 2023–24 P. LEAGUE+ Season en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Elliott, R., & Weedon, G. (2011). Foreign players in the English Premier Academy League: ‘Feet-drain’ or ‘feet-exchange’? International Review for the Sociology of Sport, 46(1), 61–75. https://doi.org/10.1177/1012690210378268 Gómez, M. A., Lorenzo, A., Sampaio, J., Ibáñez, S. J., & Ortega, E. (2016). Game-related statistics which discriminate between winning and losing under-16 male basketball games. Journal of Sports Science & Medicine, 5(1), 105–112. Ibáñez, S. J., García, J., Feu, S., Lorenzo, A., & Sampaio, J. (2008). Shot effectiveness in elite basketball according to situational variables: A multilevel approach. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 8(3), 103–113. Lakić, D., Đurić, S., & Pavlović, L. (2024). Impact of foreign players on team performance in EuroLeague basketball: A comparative analysis. PLOS ONE, 19(1), e0281234. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0281234 Liberty Times. (2021, August 17). 高國豪轉戰新竹攻城獅簽下千萬合約. 自由時報電 子報. https://sports.ltn.com.tw/news/breakingnews/3635352 Maguire, J. (1999). Global sport: Identities, societies, civilizations. Polity Press. Omidiran, M. (2013). Penalized regression models for estimating player contributions in basketball. arXiv preprint. https://arxiv.org/abs/1309.1955 Paulauskas, R., Paulauskas, L., Kreivyte, R., & Eimontas, J. (2024). Comparative analysis of national and foreign players' performance in Euroleague basketball. PLOS ONE, 19(1), e0281234. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0281234 Pedicelli, A. (2015). Contract year effect in the NBA: Empirical evidence from an individual fixed effects approach (Master’s thesis, University of Amsterdam). https://scripties.uba.uva.nl/document/627540 Richardson, D., Littlewood, M., Nesti, M., & Benstead, L. (2012). An examination of the migratory transition of elite young European soccer players to the English Premier League. Journal of Sports Sciences, 30(15), 1605–1618. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2012.709263 Roderick, M. (2013). Domestic moves: An exploration of intra-national labour mobility in the working lives of professional footballers. International Review for the Sociology of Sport, 48(4), 387–404. https://doi.org/10.1177/1012690212440197 Sampaio, J., McGarry, T., Calleja-González, J., Sáez de Villarreal, E., & Ibáñez, S. J. (2010). Exploring game performance in the National Basketball Association using player tracking data. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 10(3), 317–331. Wang, G.-Y., Liu, H., Gómez, M.-A., & Cui, Y. (2022). Differences in the performance profiles between native and foreign players in the Chinese Basketball Association. Frontiers in Psychology, 13, 788498. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.788498 zh_TW
