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題名 地緣政治壓力下的台灣半導體產業
Geopolitical pressure on Taiwan's semiconductor industry
作者 林彥廷
Lin, Yen-Ting
貢獻者 林馨怡
Lin, Hsin-Yi
林彥廷
Lin, Yen-Ting
關鍵詞 GPR
EPU
半導體
矽盾
GPR
EPU
Semiconductor
Silicon Shield
日期 2025
上傳時間 1-Sep-2025 15:46:01 (UTC+8)
摘要 台灣在全球半導體供應鏈上扮演先進製造的角色，由於高階晶片的戰略價值，因此成為美國對中國科技鎖喉的重要節點。企業被迫面臨艱難的地緣政治處境，但台灣也因此得到西方國家的戰略支持。本研究透過經濟部工業產銷存動態調查資料庫和台灣半導體製造業廠商的歷年財務報表，從產業面和廠商行為面探究地緣政治風險和經濟政策不確定性如何影響台灣半導體產業。研究結果發現，台灣半導體製造業的景氣復甦伴隨著地緣政治風險，或可支持矽盾背後關於台灣半導體產業國際重要性的基本論述，而經濟政策不確定性則對台灣半導體產業有負面影響。此外，半導體製造業下屬的積體電路製造業、分離式元件製造業和半導體封測業各有產業特性，其中競爭市場的分離式元件製造業與矽盾較不相關。
Taiwan serves as an exceptional chip maker on the global semiconductor supply chain. As advanced chips possess militarily strategic value, Taiwan has become a key technology choke point for US tech war against China. On one hand, corporates were forced to face difficult geopolitical situations; on the other hand, the situations bring Taiwan considerable strategic support from the Western countries. Making use of Industrial Production Statistics database run by Ministry of Economic Affairs and financial statements from Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing companies, I survey how geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty affect Taiwan's semiconductor industry, from both industry-wide viewpoint and corporates' decision-making perspective. Empirical result shows that upswings of Taiwan's semiconductor industry are associated with geopolitical risk and therefore serve as a backbone for Silicon Shield theory. However, economic policy uncertainty can have adverse impact on it. Additionally, the three sectors of semiconductor manufacturing industry, including integrated circuit manufacturing industry, discrete device manufacturing industry, and semiconductor packaging & testing industry, may possess unique characteristics. Among the three sectors, discrete device manufacturing industry may have less to do with the Silicon Shield.
參考文獻 黃裕烈、葉錦徽、陳重吉（2021）。台灣經濟政策不確定性指標之建構與分析。經濟論文叢刊，49（2），307–334。 Addison, C. (2001). Silicon Shield: Taiwan's Protection Against Chinese Attack. Fusion Press. Arbatli, E. C., Davis, S. J., Ito, A., and Miake, N. (2017). Policy Uncertainty in Japan. IMF Working Paper 23411. International Monetary Fund. Arslanalp, S., Eichengreen, B., and Simpson-Bell, C. (2023). Gold As International Reserves: A Barbarous Relic No More? Journal of International Economics, 145, 103822. Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., and Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593–1636. Baker, S. R., Davis, S. J., and Levy, J. A. (2022). State-Level Economic Policy Uncertainty. Journal of Monetary Economics, 132, 81–99. Bogusz, M. (2023). The Silicon Shield. Taiwan Amid the Superpowers' Rivalry. OSW Studies 83. Centre for Eastern Studies. Caldara, D. and Iacoviello, M. (2022). Measuring Geopolitical Risk. American Economic Review, 112(4), 1194–1225. Chou, K. (Aug. 2023). A Discussion on Geopolitical Risk of Taiwan Semiconductor Industry. Working paper. Available at APSA Preprints: https://doi.org/10.33774/apsa-2023-n5tfw. Chu, M.-C. M. (2024). Taiwan's Strategic Imperatives in Safeguarding National Security Through Semiconductor Significance Amid Sino-US Rivalry. In Technology Rivalry Between the USA and China. Palgrave MacMillan. CWR (July 2013). 8 Things You Should Know About Water & Semiconductors. Website post. China Water Risk. Davis, S. J. (2016). An Index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty. NBER Working Papers 22740. National Bureau of Economic Research. Davis, S. J., Liu, D., and Sheng, X. S. (Sept. 2019). Economic Policy Uncertainty in China Since 1949: The View From Mainland Newspapers. Unpublished paper from the fourth annual research workshop on China's economy. FED of Atlanta and IMF. Diamond, L., Ellis Jr., J. O., and Schell, O. (2023). Silicon Triangle: The United States, Taiwan, China, and Global Semiconductor Security. Hoover Institution. Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057–1072. Hinkley, D. V. (1977). Jackknifing in Unbalanced Situations. Technometrics, 19(3), 285–292. Hörster, T. (May 2025). Silicon Shield or Silicon Trap? Taiwan's Semiconductor Dominance and the Strategic Calculus of Chinese Military Aggression. Unpublished essay. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5245142. Hu, Y., Xue, C., and Zhou, X. (2023). Risk Without Strike: Nuclear Crisis and Corporate Investment. European Economic Review, 159, 104589. Kochumon, J. and Abraham, J. C. (2025). Taiwan's Silicon Shield Balancer in the Taiwan-US-China Triangularity. East Asia. Lee, G.-H., Cho, J.-H., and Jo, J.-G. (2020). New Economic Policy Uncertainty Indexes for South Korea. The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics, 33(5), 639–653. Miller, C. (2022). Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology. Scribner. Newey, W. K. and West, K. D. (1987). A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix. Econometrica, 55(3), 703–708. Organski, A. F. K. (1958). World Politics. University of Michigan. Schwarz, G. (1978). Estimating the Dimension of a Model. The Annals of Statistics, 6(2), 461–464. Tobin, J. and Brainard, W. C. (1976). Asset Markets and the Cost of Capital. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 427. Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics. Weil, S., Gottwald, J. C., and Taube, M. (2025). The European Union, Taiwan, and the Silicon Shield Argument: A Conceptual Assessment Through the Lens of Grand Theories. European Politics and Society, 26(3), 537–563. Wu, J.-M. (2024). Silicon Shield 2.0: A Taiwan Perspective. The Diplomat.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
112258016
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112258016
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林馨怡zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lin, Hsin-Yien_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林彥廷zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lin, Yen-Tingen_US
dc.creator (作者) 林彥廷zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Lin, Yen-Tingen_US
dc.date (日期) 2025en_US
dc.date.accessioned 1-Sep-2025 15:46:01 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 1-Sep-2025 15:46:01 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Sep-2025 15:46:01 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0112258016en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/item?item_id=178767-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經濟學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 112258016zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 台灣在全球半導體供應鏈上扮演先進製造的角色，由於高階晶片的戰略價值，因此成為美國對中國科技鎖喉的重要節點。企業被迫面臨艱難的地緣政治處境，但台灣也因此得到西方國家的戰略支持。本研究透過經濟部工業產銷存動態調查資料庫和台灣半導體製造業廠商的歷年財務報表，從產業面和廠商行為面探究地緣政治風險和經濟政策不確定性如何影響台灣半導體產業。研究結果發現，台灣半導體製造業的景氣復甦伴隨著地緣政治風險，或可支持矽盾背後關於台灣半導體產業國際重要性的基本論述，而經濟政策不確定性則對台灣半導體產業有負面影響。此外，半導體製造業下屬的積體電路製造業、分離式元件製造業和半導體封測業各有產業特性，其中競爭市場的分離式元件製造業與矽盾較不相關。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Taiwan serves as an exceptional chip maker on the global semiconductor supply chain. As advanced chips possess militarily strategic value, Taiwan has become a key technology choke point for US tech war against China. On one hand, corporates were forced to face difficult geopolitical situations; on the other hand, the situations bring Taiwan considerable strategic support from the Western countries. Making use of Industrial Production Statistics database run by Ministry of Economic Affairs and financial statements from Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing companies, I survey how geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty affect Taiwan's semiconductor industry, from both industry-wide viewpoint and corporates' decision-making perspective. Empirical result shows that upswings of Taiwan's semiconductor industry are associated with geopolitical risk and therefore serve as a backbone for Silicon Shield theory. However, economic policy uncertainty can have adverse impact on it. Additionally, the three sectors of semiconductor manufacturing industry, including integrated circuit manufacturing industry, discrete device manufacturing industry, and semiconductor packaging & testing industry, may possess unique characteristics. Among the three sectors, discrete device manufacturing industry may have less to do with the Silicon Shield.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 1 緒論 . . . 1 2 文獻回顧 . . . 3 2.1 半導體產業與矽盾 3 2.2 地緣政治風險及不確定性的研究 6 3 資料與方法 . . . 12 3.1 台灣半導體製造業與模型設定 12 3.2 廠商財務追蹤資料與模型設定 18 4 實證結果. . . 24 4.1 不確定性對台灣半導體製造業的影響 24 4.2 台灣半導體製造業對不確定性的回應 30 5 結論. . . 37 中文參考文獻 38 英文參考文獻 38zh_TW
dc.format.extent 617563 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112258016en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) GPRzh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) EPUzh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 半導體zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 矽盾zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) GPRen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) EPUen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Semiconductoren_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Silicon Shielden_US
dc.title (題名) 地緣政治壓力下的台灣半導體產業zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Geopolitical pressure on Taiwan's semiconductor industryen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 黃裕烈、葉錦徽、陳重吉（2021）。台灣經濟政策不確定性指標之建構與分析。經濟論文叢刊，49（2），307–334。 Addison, C. (2001). Silicon Shield: Taiwan's Protection Against Chinese Attack. Fusion Press. Arbatli, E. C., Davis, S. J., Ito, A., and Miake, N. (2017). Policy Uncertainty in Japan. IMF Working Paper 23411. International Monetary Fund. Arslanalp, S., Eichengreen, B., and Simpson-Bell, C. (2023). Gold As International Reserves: A Barbarous Relic No More? Journal of International Economics, 145, 103822. Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., and Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593–1636. Baker, S. R., Davis, S. J., and Levy, J. A. (2022). State-Level Economic Policy Uncertainty. Journal of Monetary Economics, 132, 81–99. Bogusz, M. (2023). The Silicon Shield. Taiwan Amid the Superpowers' Rivalry. OSW Studies 83. Centre for Eastern Studies. Caldara, D. and Iacoviello, M. (2022). Measuring Geopolitical Risk. American Economic Review, 112(4), 1194–1225. Chou, K. (Aug. 2023). A Discussion on Geopolitical Risk of Taiwan Semiconductor Industry. Working paper. Available at APSA Preprints: https://doi.org/10.33774/apsa-2023-n5tfw. Chu, M.-C. M. (2024). Taiwan's Strategic Imperatives in Safeguarding National Security Through Semiconductor Significance Amid Sino-US Rivalry. In Technology Rivalry Between the USA and China. Palgrave MacMillan. CWR (July 2013). 8 Things You Should Know About Water & Semiconductors. Website post. China Water Risk. Davis, S. J. (2016). An Index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty. NBER Working Papers 22740. National Bureau of Economic Research. Davis, S. J., Liu, D., and Sheng, X. S. (Sept. 2019). Economic Policy Uncertainty in China Since 1949: The View From Mainland Newspapers. Unpublished paper from the fourth annual research workshop on China's economy. FED of Atlanta and IMF. Diamond, L., Ellis Jr., J. O., and Schell, O. (2023). Silicon Triangle: The United States, Taiwan, China, and Global Semiconductor Security. Hoover Institution. Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057–1072. Hinkley, D. V. (1977). Jackknifing in Unbalanced Situations. Technometrics, 19(3), 285–292. Hörster, T. (May 2025). Silicon Shield or Silicon Trap? Taiwan's Semiconductor Dominance and the Strategic Calculus of Chinese Military Aggression. Unpublished essay. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5245142. Hu, Y., Xue, C., and Zhou, X. (2023). Risk Without Strike: Nuclear Crisis and Corporate Investment. European Economic Review, 159, 104589. Kochumon, J. and Abraham, J. C. (2025). Taiwan's Silicon Shield Balancer in the Taiwan-US-China Triangularity. East Asia. Lee, G.-H., Cho, J.-H., and Jo, J.-G. (2020). New Economic Policy Uncertainty Indexes for South Korea. The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics, 33(5), 639–653. Miller, C. (2022). Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology. Scribner. Newey, W. K. and West, K. D. (1987). A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix. Econometrica, 55(3), 703–708. Organski, A. F. K. (1958). World Politics. University of Michigan. Schwarz, G. (1978). Estimating the Dimension of a Model. The Annals of Statistics, 6(2), 461–464. Tobin, J. and Brainard, W. C. (1976). Asset Markets and the Cost of Capital. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 427. Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics. Weil, S., Gottwald, J. C., and Taube, M. (2025). The European Union, Taiwan, and the Silicon Shield Argument: A Conceptual Assessment Through the Lens of Grand Theories. European Politics and Society, 26(3), 537–563. Wu, J.-M. (2024). Silicon Shield 2.0: A Taiwan Perspective. The Diplomat.zh_TW