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題名 貿易全球化與民主：助力或阻力
Trade globalization and democracy: Improvement or impediment
作者 劉任竣
LIU, REN-JUN
貢獻者 李佳怡
Lee, Chia-yi
劉任竣
LIU, REN-JUN
關鍵詞 貿易全球化
經濟全球化
民主倒退
民主鞏固
貧富不均
收入不平等
民粹主義
侍從主義
匈牙利民粹
Trade globalization
Economic globalization
Democratic backsliding
Democratic consolidation
Economic inequality
Income inequality
Populism
Clientelism
Hungarian populism
日期 2025
上傳時間 1-Sep-2025 16:17:05 (UTC+8)
摘要 近二十年來，全球民主發展趨緩甚至倒退，匈牙利民主倒退、英國脫歐引發的社會分裂與極化，和全球威權主義再起，皆反映此一趨勢。本文旨在探究貿易全球化於此變遷過程中扮演的深層角色。研究以1990–2017年為期，根據數位革命、全球金融危機和新自由秩序的興衰劃分為三個時期，並區分民主與非民主政體進行比較分析。此外，本文使用時間橫斷面跨國數據迴歸分析及中介變數模型，驗證收入不平等、民粹主義與侍從主義等機制，並以KOF Economic Globalization Index (KOFEcGI)全球化指數進行穩健性檢測。 研究結果指出，僅於2009–2017年間，貿易全球化對民主國家之民主化程度產生統計上顯著的負向影響，而非民主國家未出現類似趨勢。三項中介變數中，民粹主義與侍從主義於該時期民主國家中展現出明確的中介效應。進一步分析亦發現，未達民主鞏固的國家對貿易全球化的脆弱性更高，亦使貧富差距成為具顯著中介效果的變數。本文藉由時期劃分與政體類型交互分析，深化對全球化與民主互動動態之理解，並以匈牙利個案驗證所得不均、民粹動員與侍從主義對民主侵蝕的具體機制，對全球化衝擊下的民主韌性研究提供理論與實證貢獻。
In the past two decades, democratic development has stagnated or even globally regressed. Phenomena such as democratic backsliding in Hungary, social polarization triggered by Brexit in the UK, and the resurgence of authoritarianism worldwide all illustrate this trend. This thesis aims to explore the deeper role played by trade globalization in this process of democratic change. The research period covers 1990–2017, divided into three distinct phases based on the digital revolution, the global financial crisis and the ascendance and subsequent decline of the Liberal International Order, with comparisons between democratic and non-democratic regimes. Utilizing time-series cross-sectional regression and mediation analysis models, this study examines income inequality, populism, and clientelism as intermediary mechanisms, and conducts robustness checks using the KOF Economic Globalization Index (KOFEcGI). Empirical results indicate that only during the period 2009–2017 did trade globalization exert a statistically significant negative impact on democratization in democratic countries, whereas no such effect was observed in non-democratic regimes. Among the three mediating variables, populism and clientelism demonstrated clear mediating effects within democratic nations during this period. Further analysis reveals that countries not yet consolidated in democracy are particularly vulnerable to the negative influences of trade globalization, thereby rendering income inequality a statistically significant mediating variable. By systematically distinguishing between different time periods and regime types, this study clarifies the complex dynamics between globalization and democracy. Additionally, the Hungarian case is employed to illustrate concrete mechanisms through which income inequality, populist mobilization, and clientelism erode democratic institutions. Ultimately, this thesis contributes both theoretically and empirically to understanding democratic resilience under the impacts of globalization.
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
外交學系
111253008
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111253008
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 李佳怡zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lee, Chia-yien_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 劉任竣zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) LIU, REN-JUNen_US
dc.creator (作者) 劉任竣zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) LIU, REN-JUNen_US
dc.date (日期) 2025en_US
dc.date.accessioned 1-Sep-2025 16:17:05 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 1-Sep-2025 16:17:05 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Sep-2025 16:17:05 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0111253008en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/159289-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 外交學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 111253008zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 近二十年來，全球民主發展趨緩甚至倒退，匈牙利民主倒退、英國脫歐引發的社會分裂與極化，和全球威權主義再起，皆反映此一趨勢。本文旨在探究貿易全球化於此變遷過程中扮演的深層角色。研究以1990–2017年為期，根據數位革命、全球金融危機和新自由秩序的興衰劃分為三個時期，並區分民主與非民主政體進行比較分析。此外，本文使用時間橫斷面跨國數據迴歸分析及中介變數模型，驗證收入不平等、民粹主義與侍從主義等機制，並以KOF Economic Globalization Index (KOFEcGI)全球化指數進行穩健性檢測。 研究結果指出，僅於2009–2017年間，貿易全球化對民主國家之民主化程度產生統計上顯著的負向影響，而非民主國家未出現類似趨勢。三項中介變數中，民粹主義與侍從主義於該時期民主國家中展現出明確的中介效應。進一步分析亦發現，未達民主鞏固的國家對貿易全球化的脆弱性更高，亦使貧富差距成為具顯著中介效果的變數。本文藉由時期劃分與政體類型交互分析，深化對全球化與民主互動動態之理解，並以匈牙利個案驗證所得不均、民粹動員與侍從主義對民主侵蝕的具體機制，對全球化衝擊下的民主韌性研究提供理論與實證貢獻。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) In the past two decades, democratic development has stagnated or even globally regressed. Phenomena such as democratic backsliding in Hungary, social polarization triggered by Brexit in the UK, and the resurgence of authoritarianism worldwide all illustrate this trend. This thesis aims to explore the deeper role played by trade globalization in this process of democratic change. The research period covers 1990–2017, divided into three distinct phases based on the digital revolution, the global financial crisis and the ascendance and subsequent decline of the Liberal International Order, with comparisons between democratic and non-democratic regimes. Utilizing time-series cross-sectional regression and mediation analysis models, this study examines income inequality, populism, and clientelism as intermediary mechanisms, and conducts robustness checks using the KOF Economic Globalization Index (KOFEcGI). Empirical results indicate that only during the period 2009–2017 did trade globalization exert a statistically significant negative impact on democratization in democratic countries, whereas no such effect was observed in non-democratic regimes. Among the three mediating variables, populism and clientelism demonstrated clear mediating effects within democratic nations during this period. Further analysis reveals that countries not yet consolidated in democracy are particularly vulnerable to the negative influences of trade globalization, thereby rendering income inequality a statistically significant mediating variable. By systematically distinguishing between different time periods and regime types, this study clarifies the complex dynamics between globalization and democracy. Additionally, the Hungarian case is employed to illustrate concrete mechanisms through which income inequality, populist mobilization, and clientelism erode democratic institutions. Ultimately, this thesis contributes both theoretically and empirically to understanding democratic resilience under the impacts of globalization.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章　緒論　13 第一節　研究背景與動機　13 第二節　研究目標與問題　16 第三節　理論方法與重要性　18 第四節　論文章節安排　18 第二章　文獻回顧　21 第一節　民主定義與民主化　21 第二節　經濟對民主的影響　25 第三節　全球化與民主　27 第四節　全球化浪潮下其他對民主的負面影響　37 第五節　新自由秩序、美歐推廣民主和民主援助　44 第六節　個案－匈牙利　47 第七節　本研究的貢獻與創新　50 第三章　研究設計　53 第一節　研究假設　54 第二節　研究變數　58 第三節　統計模型　67 第四節　民主鞏固模型　69 第五節　中介變數模型　69 第六節　經典個案　75 第四章　實證分析　77 第一節　非民主國家：全球化民主推進力的式微（模型一至三）　80 第二節　民主國家：從制度韌性到全球化侵蝕（模型四至六）　82 第三節　民主鞏固的差異　83 第四節　中介變數分析　86 第五節　穩健度測試　95 第六節　實證分析小結　105 第五章　個案研究－匈牙利　109 第一節　貿易全球化與貧富差距：所得不均的惡化　109 第二節　貿易全球化與民粹現象：社會分化的加劇　113 第三節　貿易全球化與侍從：民粹的部分面向　116 第四節　小結　119 第六章　結論　123 第一節　研究目的與問題回顧　123 第二節　研究結果摘要　123 第三節　理論意涵與貢獻　124 第四節　政策意涵與實務建議　126 第五節　研究限制與不足之處　128 第六節　未來研究建議　130 參考文獻　131 專書（含專書章節）　131 期刊論文　132 網路資料　142 資料庫/使用手冊　142 官方文件　144 工作/政策文件　144 研討會/會議論文　145zh_TW
dc.format.extent 3512678 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111253008en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 貿易全球化zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 經濟全球化zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 民主倒退zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 民主鞏固zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 貧富不均zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 收入不平等zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 民粹主義zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 侍從主義zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 匈牙利民粹zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Trade globalizationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Economic globalizationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Democratic backslidingen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Democratic consolidationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Economic inequalityen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Income inequalityen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Populismen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Clientelismen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Hungarian populismen_US
dc.title (題名) 貿易全球化與民主：助力或阻力zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Trade globalization and democracy: Improvement or impedimenten_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
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