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題名 戰爭模擬作為策略性決策工具之應用與評估: 以鈮基電池商業化為例
Evaluating War-Game Simulation as a Tool for Strategic Decision-Making: A Case Study of Niobium Battery Commercialization
作者 萬家豪
Ward, Braxton Connor
貢獻者 陳明進
Chen Mingjin
萬家豪
Braxton Connor Ward
關鍵詞 戰爭模擬
鈮基電池
決策性
Wargame simulation
Strategic decision-making
Niobium battery
日期 2026
上傳時間 2-Feb-2026 12:13:12 (UTC+8)
摘要 在高度複雜、不確定且快速演變的產業環境中，策略決策需要超越傳統靜態分析架構的分析工具。當企業面臨如定價策略、市場擴張，或預判競爭者因市場變動而採取之回應等高影響力決策時，商業兵棋推演 （business wargame simulation） 提供了一個實務且低風險的環境，用以探索不同的策略選項。透過引入動態互動與適應性行為，兵棋推演使決策者能以傳統分析方法難以達成的方式，深入檢視各項策略選擇。 本研究奠基於競爭情報與策略管理相關文獻，探討一套量身設計之兵棋推演模擬架構，用以建構關鍵產業利害關係人之間的策略互動。該架構強調角色導向的決策機制、反覆進行的競爭回應，以及透過結構化檢討 （debrief） 流程，對可行之競爭情報進行評估與整理。 本研究方法以鈮基電池技術商業化之質性個案研究加以說明。兵棋推演透過整合技術與市場層面的知識，產生具體且可執行的策略洞見，供高階管理階層進行決策參考，同時也說明該推演架構如何依組織需求進行調整，並具備進一步彈性修改的可能性。 研究結果顯示，兵棋推演模擬可作為傳統策略工具的重要補充，尤其適用於身處新興科技市場的組織。本研究凸顯兵棋推演在提升策略清晰度、決策品質，以及促進組織內部策略一致性方面，於高度競爭且複雜的環境中所展現的有效性。
Strategic decision-making in complex, uncertain, and rapidly evolving industries requires analytical tools that extend beyond conventional static frameworks. When firms face high-impact decisions such as pricing strategies, market expansion, or anticipating competitor responses to market shifts, business wargame simulations offer a practical, low-risk environment for exploring strategic alternatives. By introducing dynamic interaction and adaptive behavior, wargaming enables decision makers to examine strategic choices in ways that traditional analytical methods cannot. Drawing on literature in competitive intelligence and strategic management, this study examines a tailored wargame simulation framework designed to model strategic interactions among key industry stakeholders. The framework emphasizes role-based decision making, iterative competitive responses, and a structured debrief process through which actionable competitive intelligence is evaluated. The methodology is demonstrated through a qualitative case study on the commercialization of niobium-based battery technology. The wargame generated tangible strategic insights by consolidating technical and market knowledge into actionable direction for executive decision-making while also illustrating how the framework has been adapted and can be further altered to meet varying organizational needs The findings indicate that wargame simulations are a valuable complement to strategic tools, particularly for organizations operating in emerging technology markets. This research highlights the effectiveness of wargaming in enhancing strategic clarity, decision quality, and organizational alignment in complex competitive environments.
參考文獻 Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman, Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science 185, 1124-1131 (1974). DOI: 10.1126/science.185.4157.1124 Alkaraan, F., & Northcott, D. (2006). Strategic capital investment decision-making: A role for emergent analysis tools? A study of practice in large UK manufacturing companies. The British Accounting Review, 38(2), 149–173. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bar.2005.10.003 Calof, J. L., & Wright, S. (2008). Competitive intelligence. European Journal of Marketing, 42(7–8), 717–729. https://doi.org/10.1108/03090560810877114 CBMM. (n.d.). Driving the future of advanced materials. https://www.sfa-oxford.com/market-news-and-insights/niobium-swing-producer-cbmm-driving-the-future-of-advanced-materials da Silva Lima, L., Wu, J., Cadena, E., Groombridge, A. S., & Dewulf, J. (2023). Towards environmentally sustainable battery anode materials: Life cycle assessment of mixed niobium oxide (XNO™) and lithium-titanium oxide (LTO). Sustainable Materials and Technologies, 37, e00654. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.susmat.2023.e00654 Ding, H., Song, Z., Zhang, H., Zhang, H., & Li, X. (2020). Niobium-based oxide anodes toward fast and safe energy storage: A review. Materials Today Nano, 11, 100082. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mtnano.2020.100082 Elmassri, M., Abdelrahman, M., & Elrazaz, T. (2020). Strategic investment decision-making: A theoretical perspective. Corporate Ownership and Control, 18(1), 207–218. https://doi.org/10.22495/cocv18i1siart5 Flyvbjerg, B. (2021). Top ten behavioral biases in project management: An overview. Project Management Journal, 52(6), 531–546. https://doi.org/10.1177/87569728211049046 Ginter, P. M., & Rucks, A. C. (1984). Can business learn from wargames? Long Range Planning, 17(3), 123–128. https://doi.org/10.1016/0024-6301(84)90015-3 Groom, J. R., & David, F. R. (2001). Competitive intelligence activity among small firms. SAM Advanced Management Journal, 66(1), 12–20. Grand View Research, Inc. (2023). Lithium-ion battery market size, share & trends analysis report by product (LCO, LFP, NCA), by application (automotive, consumer electronics), by region, and segment forecasts, 2023–2030. https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/lithium-ion-battery-market Horn, J. (2023). Inside the competitor’s mindset: How to predict their next move and position yourself for success. The MIT Press. Huikku, J., Harris, E., Elmassri, M., & Northcott, D. (2024). Agents’ context-specific conduct in making strategic investment decisions. Journal of Accounting & Organizational Change, 20(6), 27–55. https://doi.org/10.1108/JAOC-04-2023-0075 Jung, F., Schröder, M., & Timme, M. (2023). Exponential adoption of battery electric cars. PLOS ONE, 18(12), e0295692. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0295692 Koech, A. K., Mwandila, G., Mulolani, F., & Mwaanga, P. (2024). Lithium-ion battery fundamentals and exploration of cathode materials: A review. South African Journal of Chemical Engineering, 50(1), 321–339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sajce.2024.09.008 Lithium-ion battery demand forecast for 2030. (n.d.). McKinsey & Company. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/battery-2030-resilient-sustainable-and-circular Malik, R., Bertens, K., Allard, R.-P., Thompson, K., Hiscock, J., Handler, C., & Wilson, A. (2024). A strategic approach to evaluating battery innovation investments. iScience, 27(11), 111075. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2024.111075 Maluleka, M. L., & Chummun, B. Z. (2023). Competitive intelligence and strategy implementation: Critical examination of present literature review. SA Journal of Information Management, 25(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.4102/sajim.v25i1.1597 Niobium anode production (XNO) for batteries. (n.d.). CBMM. https://niobium.tech/en/niobium-anode-production-xno Niobium and tantalum statistics and information. (n.d.). U.S. Geological Survey. https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/niobium-and-tantalum-statistics-and-information Niobium deposits in the United States. (n.d.). U.S. Geological Survey. https://www.usgs.gov/data/niobium-deposits-united-states Ngoy, K. R., Lukong, V. T., Yoro, K. O., Makambo, J. B., Chukwuati, N. C., Ibegbulam, C., Eterigho-Ikelegbe, O., Ukoba, K., & Jen, T.-C. (2025). Lithium-ion batteries and the future of sustainable energy: A comprehensive review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 223, 115971. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2025.115971 Opait, G., Bleoju, G., Nistor, R., & Capatina, A. (2016). The influences of competitive intelligence budgets on informational energy dynamics. Journal of Business Research, 69(5), 1682–1689. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.10.038 Pellissier, R., & Nenzhelele, T. E. (2013). Towards a universal definition of competitive intelligence. SA Journal of Information Management, 15(2), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.4102/sajim.v15i2.559 Rezaei, M., Nekahi, A., Kumar M R, A., Nizami, A., Li, X., Deng, S., Nanda, J., & Zaghib, K. (2025). A review of lithium-ion battery recycling for enabling a circular economy. Journal of Power Sources, 630, 236157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpowsour.2024.236157 Schwarz, J. O. (2009). Business wargaming: Developing foresight within a strategic simulation. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 21(3), 291–305. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537320902768841 Schwarz, J. O. (2011). Ex ante strategy evaluation: The case for business wargaming. Business Strategy Series, 12(3), 104–113. https://doi.org/10.1108/17515631111130141 Sheng, Y., Wang, Y., Yin, S., Zhao, L., Zhang, X., Liu, D., & Wen, G. (2024). Niobium-based oxide for anode materials for lithium-ion batteries. Chemistry – A European Journal, 30(19), e202302865. https://doi.org/10.1002/chem.202302865 Spherical Insights. (n.d.). Top 30 companies in global niobium-based anode materials market 2025: Market intelligence and investment trends 2024–2035. https://www.sphericalinsights.com/blogs/top-30-companies-in-global-niobium-based-anode-materials-market-2025-market-intelligence-and-investment-trends-2024-2035 Werro, A., Nitzl, C., & Borghoff, U. M. (2024). On the role of intelligence and business wargaming in developing foresight. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.06957 Werro, A., Nitzl, C., & Borghoff, U. M. (2025). On the role of intelligence and business wargaming in developing foresight. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2025.2506122 Zajac, E. J., & Bazerman, M. H. (1991). Blind spots in industry and competitor analysis: Implications of interfirm (mis)perceptions for strategic decisions. Academy of Management Review, 16(1), 37–56. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.1991.4278991
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際金融碩士學位學程
113ZB1003
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0113ZB1003
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 陳明進zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chen Mingjinen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 萬家豪zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Braxton Connor Warden_US
dc.creator (作者) 萬家豪zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Ward, Braxton Connoren_US
dc.date (日期) 2026en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-Feb-2026 12:13:12 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-Feb-2026 12:13:12 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Feb-2026 12:13:12 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0113ZB1003en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/161364-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際金融碩士學位學程zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 113ZB1003zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 在高度複雜、不確定且快速演變的產業環境中，策略決策需要超越傳統靜態分析架構的分析工具。當企業面臨如定價策略、市場擴張，或預判競爭者因市場變動而採取之回應等高影響力決策時，商業兵棋推演 （business wargame simulation） 提供了一個實務且低風險的環境，用以探索不同的策略選項。透過引入動態互動與適應性行為，兵棋推演使決策者能以傳統分析方法難以達成的方式，深入檢視各項策略選擇。 本研究奠基於競爭情報與策略管理相關文獻，探討一套量身設計之兵棋推演模擬架構，用以建構關鍵產業利害關係人之間的策略互動。該架構強調角色導向的決策機制、反覆進行的競爭回應，以及透過結構化檢討 （debrief） 流程，對可行之競爭情報進行評估與整理。 本研究方法以鈮基電池技術商業化之質性個案研究加以說明。兵棋推演透過整合技術與市場層面的知識，產生具體且可執行的策略洞見，供高階管理階層進行決策參考，同時也說明該推演架構如何依組織需求進行調整，並具備進一步彈性修改的可能性。 研究結果顯示，兵棋推演模擬可作為傳統策略工具的重要補充，尤其適用於身處新興科技市場的組織。本研究凸顯兵棋推演在提升策略清晰度、決策品質，以及促進組織內部策略一致性方面，於高度競爭且複雜的環境中所展現的有效性。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Strategic decision-making in complex, uncertain, and rapidly evolving industries requires analytical tools that extend beyond conventional static frameworks. When firms face high-impact decisions such as pricing strategies, market expansion, or anticipating competitor responses to market shifts, business wargame simulations offer a practical, low-risk environment for exploring strategic alternatives. By introducing dynamic interaction and adaptive behavior, wargaming enables decision makers to examine strategic choices in ways that traditional analytical methods cannot. Drawing on literature in competitive intelligence and strategic management, this study examines a tailored wargame simulation framework designed to model strategic interactions among key industry stakeholders. The framework emphasizes role-based decision making, iterative competitive responses, and a structured debrief process through which actionable competitive intelligence is evaluated. The methodology is demonstrated through a qualitative case study on the commercialization of niobium-based battery technology. The wargame generated tangible strategic insights by consolidating technical and market knowledge into actionable direction for executive decision-making while also illustrating how the framework has been adapted and can be further altered to meet varying organizational needs The findings indicate that wargame simulations are a valuable complement to strategic tools, particularly for organizations operating in emerging technology markets. This research highlights the effectiveness of wargaming in enhancing strategic clarity, decision quality, and organizational alignment in complex competitive environments.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Chapter 1: Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Purpose of the Study 1 1.3 Paper Flowchart 2 Chapter 2: Literature Review 3 2.1 Competitive Intelligence 3 2.2 Current Problem 3 2.3 Origins of Wargaming 6 2.4 Why Wargaming? 6 2.5 When to Wargame 7 2.6 Basic Structure 8 Chapter 3: Case Study - Niobium Battery Commercialization 9 3.1 Lithium-ion Battery Technology 9 3.2 Emergence of Niobium-Based Battery Technology 10 3.3 Market Landscape 12 3.4 Niobium Applications 13 3.5 Industry Players 15 3.6 Chemistry Comparison 16 3.7 Supply Chain 17 3.8 Commercialization Wrap-up 19 Chapter 4: Methodology 20 4.1 Pre-game Preparation 20 4.2 Role Allocation 21 4.3 Mutli-Round Simulation 22 4.4 Debrief 23 Chapter 5: Results 24 5.1 Key Strategic Insights 25 1. Re-evaluate Legacy Partnerships 25 2. Early Strategic Choices Shape Future Technological Options 25 3. Geopolitical and External Forces Outweigh Technical Capability 26 4. Establishing a Clear Identity in the Battery Ecosystem 26 5.2 Results Wrap-Up 27 Chapter 6: Conclusion 27 Reference 31 Appendix A 35 Appendix B 39 Appendix C 41 Appendix D 43 Appendix F 50zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1424021 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0113ZB1003en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 戰爭模擬zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 鈮基電池zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 決策性zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Wargame simulationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Strategic decision-makingen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Niobium batteryen_US
dc.title (題名) 戰爭模擬作為策略性決策工具之應用與評估: 以鈮基電池商業化為例zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Evaluating War-Game Simulation as a Tool for Strategic Decision-Making: A Case Study of Niobium Battery Commercializationen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman, Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science 185, 1124-1131 (1974). DOI: 10.1126/science.185.4157.1124 Alkaraan, F., & Northcott, D. (2006). Strategic capital investment decision-making: A role for emergent analysis tools? A study of practice in large UK manufacturing companies. The British Accounting Review, 38(2), 149–173. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bar.2005.10.003 Calof, J. L., & Wright, S. (2008). Competitive intelligence. European Journal of Marketing, 42(7–8), 717–729. https://doi.org/10.1108/03090560810877114 CBMM. (n.d.). Driving the future of advanced materials. https://www.sfa-oxford.com/market-news-and-insights/niobium-swing-producer-cbmm-driving-the-future-of-advanced-materials da Silva Lima, L., Wu, J., Cadena, E., Groombridge, A. S., & Dewulf, J. (2023). Towards environmentally sustainable battery anode materials: Life cycle assessment of mixed niobium oxide (XNO™) and lithium-titanium oxide (LTO). Sustainable Materials and Technologies, 37, e00654. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.susmat.2023.e00654 Ding, H., Song, Z., Zhang, H., Zhang, H., & Li, X. (2020). Niobium-based oxide anodes toward fast and safe energy storage: A review. Materials Today Nano, 11, 100082. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mtnano.2020.100082 Elmassri, M., Abdelrahman, M., & Elrazaz, T. (2020). Strategic investment decision-making: A theoretical perspective. Corporate Ownership and Control, 18(1), 207–218. https://doi.org/10.22495/cocv18i1siart5 Flyvbjerg, B. (2021). Top ten behavioral biases in project management: An overview. Project Management Journal, 52(6), 531–546. https://doi.org/10.1177/87569728211049046 Ginter, P. M., & Rucks, A. C. (1984). Can business learn from wargames? Long Range Planning, 17(3), 123–128. https://doi.org/10.1016/0024-6301(84)90015-3 Groom, J. R., & David, F. R. (2001). Competitive intelligence activity among small firms. SAM Advanced Management Journal, 66(1), 12–20. Grand View Research, Inc. (2023). Lithium-ion battery market size, share & trends analysis report by product (LCO, LFP, NCA), by application (automotive, consumer electronics), by region, and segment forecasts, 2023–2030. https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/lithium-ion-battery-market Horn, J. (2023). Inside the competitor’s mindset: How to predict their next move and position yourself for success. The MIT Press. Huikku, J., Harris, E., Elmassri, M., & Northcott, D. (2024). Agents’ context-specific conduct in making strategic investment decisions. Journal of Accounting & Organizational Change, 20(6), 27–55. https://doi.org/10.1108/JAOC-04-2023-0075 Jung, F., Schröder, M., & Timme, M. (2023). Exponential adoption of battery electric cars. PLOS ONE, 18(12), e0295692. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0295692 Koech, A. K., Mwandila, G., Mulolani, F., & Mwaanga, P. (2024). Lithium-ion battery fundamentals and exploration of cathode materials: A review. South African Journal of Chemical Engineering, 50(1), 321–339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sajce.2024.09.008 Lithium-ion battery demand forecast for 2030. (n.d.). McKinsey & Company. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/battery-2030-resilient-sustainable-and-circular Malik, R., Bertens, K., Allard, R.-P., Thompson, K., Hiscock, J., Handler, C., & Wilson, A. (2024). A strategic approach to evaluating battery innovation investments. iScience, 27(11), 111075. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2024.111075 Maluleka, M. L., & Chummun, B. Z. (2023). Competitive intelligence and strategy implementation: Critical examination of present literature review. SA Journal of Information Management, 25(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.4102/sajim.v25i1.1597 Niobium anode production (XNO) for batteries. (n.d.). CBMM. https://niobium.tech/en/niobium-anode-production-xno Niobium and tantalum statistics and information. (n.d.). U.S. Geological Survey. https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/niobium-and-tantalum-statistics-and-information Niobium deposits in the United States. (n.d.). U.S. Geological Survey. https://www.usgs.gov/data/niobium-deposits-united-states Ngoy, K. R., Lukong, V. T., Yoro, K. O., Makambo, J. B., Chukwuati, N. C., Ibegbulam, C., Eterigho-Ikelegbe, O., Ukoba, K., & Jen, T.-C. (2025). Lithium-ion batteries and the future of sustainable energy: A comprehensive review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 223, 115971. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2025.115971 Opait, G., Bleoju, G., Nistor, R., & Capatina, A. (2016). The influences of competitive intelligence budgets on informational energy dynamics. Journal of Business Research, 69(5), 1682–1689. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.10.038 Pellissier, R., & Nenzhelele, T. E. (2013). Towards a universal definition of competitive intelligence. SA Journal of Information Management, 15(2), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.4102/sajim.v15i2.559 Rezaei, M., Nekahi, A., Kumar M R, A., Nizami, A., Li, X., Deng, S., Nanda, J., & Zaghib, K. (2025). A review of lithium-ion battery recycling for enabling a circular economy. Journal of Power Sources, 630, 236157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpowsour.2024.236157 Schwarz, J. O. (2009). Business wargaming: Developing foresight within a strategic simulation. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 21(3), 291–305. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537320902768841 Schwarz, J. O. (2011). Ex ante strategy evaluation: The case for business wargaming. Business Strategy Series, 12(3), 104–113. https://doi.org/10.1108/17515631111130141 Sheng, Y., Wang, Y., Yin, S., Zhao, L., Zhang, X., Liu, D., & Wen, G. (2024). Niobium-based oxide for anode materials for lithium-ion batteries. Chemistry – A European Journal, 30(19), e202302865. https://doi.org/10.1002/chem.202302865 Spherical Insights. (n.d.). Top 30 companies in global niobium-based anode materials market 2025: Market intelligence and investment trends 2024–2035. https://www.sphericalinsights.com/blogs/top-30-companies-in-global-niobium-based-anode-materials-market-2025-market-intelligence-and-investment-trends-2024-2035 Werro, A., Nitzl, C., & Borghoff, U. M. (2024). On the role of intelligence and business wargaming in developing foresight. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.06957 Werro, A., Nitzl, C., & Borghoff, U. M. (2025). On the role of intelligence and business wargaming in developing foresight. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2025.2506122 Zajac, E. J., & Bazerman, M. H. (1991). Blind spots in industry and competitor analysis: Implications of interfirm (mis)perceptions for strategic decisions. Academy of Management Review, 16(1), 37–56. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.1991.4278991zh_TW