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題名 臺灣碳許可證銀行化之動態隨機一般均衡模型分析
A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Analysis of Carbon Permit Banking in Taiwan
作者 黃仲玄
Huang, Zhong-Xuan
貢獻者 朱琇妍
Chu, Shiou-Yen
黃仲玄
Huang, Zhong-Xuan
關鍵詞 碳政策
碳許可證銀行化
所得稅
消費稅
動態隨機一般均衡模型
Carbon policy
Carbon permit banking
Income tax
Consumption tax
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model
日期 2026
上傳時間 2-Feb-2026 14:00:56 (UTC+8)
摘要 本文建立一個封閉經濟的動態隨機一般均衡模型（Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE），將碳排放許可證銀行化機制（permit banking）納入分析架構中，系統性探討碳排放交易制度在價格僵固、財政稅制與貨幣政策反應並存下，對總體經濟之動態影響。模型中納入家計部門、最終財與中間財廠商、政府、監管部門與中央銀行，假設中間財廠商於生產過程中伴隨碳排放，需持有足夠之碳排放許可證，且允許將未使用之許可證跨期儲存但不得向未來借用。此外，模型同時考慮消費稅與所得稅之存在，並假設中央銀行依循泰勒法則（Taylor rule）調整名目利率，以刻畫碳政策、財政政策與貨幣政策間之互動關係。接著透過數值模擬與衝擊反應分析，探討碳排放許可證供給變動、減排成本衝擊與稅制調整等對產出、通膨、投資與碳價之動態影響。綜合本文結果可知，環境政策工具的設計方式對經濟與減碳成效具有關鍵影響。相較於單純調整碳排放許可證供給，透過降低減排成本以促進企業減排，不僅能有效抑制碳排放，亦較有助於提升產出並穩定通膨，顯示減排補貼或監管成本調降等政策在兼顧經濟與環境目標上更具效率。相對而言，稅制調整主要透過影響家庭所得與勞動供給作用於經濟，其對碳排放的抑制效果有限，難以取代環境政策作為核心減碳工具。此外，貨幣政策與其他總體衝擊將影響碳政策的傳導效果，若反應不當，可能放大政策衝擊，顯示碳政策之成效高度仰賴其與財政及貨幣政策之協調。
This paper develops a closed-economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with a carbon permit banking mechanism to examine the macroeconomic effects of an emissions trading system under price rigidity, fiscal taxation, and monetary policy responses. The model includes households, firms, the government, a regulator, and a central bank, and allows firms to bank unused emission permits across periods while prohibiting borrowing from future allocations. Consumption and labor income taxes are incorporated, and monetary policy follows a Taylor rule. Numerical simulations show that the design of environmental policy instruments is crucial for both economic performance and emission outcomes. Policies that lower abatement costs are more effective than adjustments in permit supply in reducing emissions while supporting output and stabilizing inflation. In contrast, tax adjustments have limited mitigation effects and mainly influence the economy through household income and labor supply. The results also highlight the importance of coordination between environmental, fiscal, and monetary policies.
參考文獻 黃俞寧（2013）．動態隨機一般均衡架構在台灣貨幣政策制定上之應用．中央銀行季刊，35（1），3-33。 傅敬堯、林雪瑜、楊淑珺（2018）．稅制調整與地下經濟—臺灣動態隨機一般均衡模型分析．臺灣經濟預測與政策，49（1），1-45。 Angelopoulos, K., Economides, G., & Philippopoulos, A. (2012). First-and second-best allocations under economic and environmental uncertainty. International Tax and Public Finance, 20(3), 360-380. Annicchiarico, B., & Di Dio, F. (2015). Environmental policy and macroeconomic dynamics in a new Keynesian model. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 69, 1-21. Annicchiarico, B., & Diluiso, F. (2019). International transmission of the business cycle and environmental policy. Resource and Energy Economics, 58. Barro, R. J. (2009). Rare disasters, asset prices, and welfare costs. American Economic Review, 99(1), 243-264. Calvo, G. A. (1983). Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework. Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(3), 383-398. Cantelmo, A., & Melina, G. (2018). Monetary policy and the relative price of durable goods. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 86, 1-48. Chu, S.-Y. (2018). Macroeconomic policies and housing market in Taiwan. International Review of Economics & Finance, 58, 404-421. COASE, R. (1960). L AJS. Journal of Law and Economics, 3, 1-44. Dissou, Y., & Karnizova, L. (2016). Emissions cap or emissions tax? A multi-sector business cycle analysis. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 79, 169-188. Dubois, L., Sahuc, J.-G., & Vermandel, G. (2025). A general equilibrium approach to carbon permit banking. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 129. Fell, H., & Morgenstern, R. D. (2010). Alternative Approaches to Cost Containment in a Cap-and-Trade System. Environmental and Resource Economics, 47(2), 275-297. Ferrari, A., & Nispi Landi, V. (2023). Whatever it takes to save the planet? Central banks and unconventional green policy. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 28(2), 299-324. Figueres, C., Schellnhuber, H. J., Whiteman, G., Rockström, J., Hobley, A., & Rahmstorf, S. (2017). Three years to safeguard our climate. Nature, 546(7660), 593-595. Fischer, C., & Springborn, M. (2011). Emissions targets and the real business cycle: Intensity targets versus caps or taxes. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 62(3), 352-366 Golosov, M., Hassler, J., Krusell, P., & Tsyvinski, A. (2014). Optimal Taxes on Fossil Fuel in General Equilibrium. Econometrica, 82(1), 41-88. Heutel, G. (2012). How should environmental policy respond to business cycles? Optimal policy under persistent productivity shocks. Review of Economic Dynamics, 15(2), 244-264. Leeper, E. M., Plante, M., & Traum, N. (2010). Dynamics of fiscal financing in the United States. Journal of Econometrics, 156(2), 304-321. Metcalf, G. E., & Stock, J. H. (2023). The macroeconomic impact of Europe’s carbon taxes. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 15(3), 265-286. Rubin, J. D. (1996). A Model of Intertemporal Emission Trading, Banking, and Borrowing. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 31(3), 269-286. Schennach, S. M. (2000). The Economics of Pollution Permit Banking in the Context of Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 40(3), 189-210. Teo, W. L. (2009). Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Taiwanese Economy. Pacific Economic Review, 14(2), 194-231.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
112255004
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112255004
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 朱琇妍zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chu, Shiou-Yenen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 黃仲玄zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Huang, Zhong-Xuanen_US
dc.creator (作者) 黃仲玄zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Huang, Zhong-Xuanen_US
dc.date (日期) 2026en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-Feb-2026 14:00:56 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-Feb-2026 14:00:56 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Feb-2026 14:00:56 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0112255004en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/161493-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財政學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 112255004zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文建立一個封閉經濟的動態隨機一般均衡模型（Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE），將碳排放許可證銀行化機制（permit banking）納入分析架構中，系統性探討碳排放交易制度在價格僵固、財政稅制與貨幣政策反應並存下，對總體經濟之動態影響。模型中納入家計部門、最終財與中間財廠商、政府、監管部門與中央銀行，假設中間財廠商於生產過程中伴隨碳排放，需持有足夠之碳排放許可證，且允許將未使用之許可證跨期儲存但不得向未來借用。此外，模型同時考慮消費稅與所得稅之存在，並假設中央銀行依循泰勒法則（Taylor rule）調整名目利率，以刻畫碳政策、財政政策與貨幣政策間之互動關係。接著透過數值模擬與衝擊反應分析，探討碳排放許可證供給變動、減排成本衝擊與稅制調整等對產出、通膨、投資與碳價之動態影響。綜合本文結果可知，環境政策工具的設計方式對經濟與減碳成效具有關鍵影響。相較於單純調整碳排放許可證供給，透過降低減排成本以促進企業減排，不僅能有效抑制碳排放，亦較有助於提升產出並穩定通膨，顯示減排補貼或監管成本調降等政策在兼顧經濟與環境目標上更具效率。相對而言，稅制調整主要透過影響家庭所得與勞動供給作用於經濟，其對碳排放的抑制效果有限，難以取代環境政策作為核心減碳工具。此外，貨幣政策與其他總體衝擊將影響碳政策的傳導效果，若反應不當，可能放大政策衝擊，顯示碳政策之成效高度仰賴其與財政及貨幣政策之協調。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper develops a closed-economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with a carbon permit banking mechanism to examine the macroeconomic effects of an emissions trading system under price rigidity, fiscal taxation, and monetary policy responses. The model includes households, firms, the government, a regulator, and a central bank, and allows firms to bank unused emission permits across periods while prohibiting borrowing from future allocations. Consumption and labor income taxes are incorporated, and monetary policy follows a Taylor rule. Numerical simulations show that the design of environmental policy instruments is crucial for both economic performance and emission outcomes. Policies that lower abatement costs are more effective than adjustments in permit supply in reducing emissions while supporting output and stabilizing inflation. In contrast, tax adjustments have limited mitigation effects and mainly influence the economy through household income and labor supply. The results also highlight the importance of coordination between environmental, fiscal, and monetary policies.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第二章 制度介紹與文獻回顧 6 第一節 碳排放許可證制度介紹 6 第二節 環境與稅收相關文獻回顧 8 第三章 模型設立 16 第一節 家計部門 19 第二節 廠商 22 第三節 監管部門 31 第四節 政府部門 32 第五節 外生衝擊 33 第六節 市場均衡條件 34 第四章 參數設定與模型校正 35 第五章 結果分析 40 第一節 總體技術水準上升衝擊 41 第二節 碳排放許可證供給增加衝擊 43 第三節 負向減排成本衝擊 45 第四節 消費稅稅率調升衝擊 47 第五節 所得稅稅率調升衝擊 49 第六節 名目利率上升衝擊 51 第七節 政府支出增加衝擊 53 第八節 小結 55 第六章 結論 57 第一節 研究發現 57 第二節 未來研究方向 58 參考文獻 60 附錄A 63 第一節 各部門模型之一階條件計算過程 63 第二節 模型原式、靜態方程式與線性化方程式 72 第三節 變數恆定狀態計算過程 82zh_TW
dc.format.extent 3054708 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112255004en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 碳政策zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 碳許可證銀行化zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 所得稅zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 消費稅zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 動態隨機一般均衡模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Carbon policyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Carbon permit bankingen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Income taxen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Consumption taxen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium modelen_US
dc.title (題名) 臺灣碳許可證銀行化之動態隨機一般均衡模型分析zh_TW
dc.title (題名) A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Analysis of Carbon Permit Banking in Taiwanen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 黃俞寧（2013）．動態隨機一般均衡架構在台灣貨幣政策制定上之應用．中央銀行季刊，35（1），3-33。 傅敬堯、林雪瑜、楊淑珺（2018）．稅制調整與地下經濟—臺灣動態隨機一般均衡模型分析．臺灣經濟預測與政策，49（1），1-45。 Angelopoulos, K., Economides, G., & Philippopoulos, A. (2012). First-and second-best allocations under economic and environmental uncertainty. International Tax and Public Finance, 20(3), 360-380. Annicchiarico, B., & Di Dio, F. (2015). Environmental policy and macroeconomic dynamics in a new Keynesian model. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 69, 1-21. Annicchiarico, B., & Diluiso, F. (2019). International transmission of the business cycle and environmental policy. Resource and Energy Economics, 58. Barro, R. J. (2009). Rare disasters, asset prices, and welfare costs. American Economic Review, 99(1), 243-264. Calvo, G. A. (1983). Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework. Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(3), 383-398. Cantelmo, A., & Melina, G. (2018). Monetary policy and the relative price of durable goods. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 86, 1-48. Chu, S.-Y. (2018). Macroeconomic policies and housing market in Taiwan. International Review of Economics & Finance, 58, 404-421. COASE, R. (1960). L AJS. Journal of Law and Economics, 3, 1-44. Dissou, Y., & Karnizova, L. (2016). Emissions cap or emissions tax? A multi-sector business cycle analysis. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 79, 169-188. Dubois, L., Sahuc, J.-G., & Vermandel, G. (2025). A general equilibrium approach to carbon permit banking. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 129. Fell, H., & Morgenstern, R. D. (2010). Alternative Approaches to Cost Containment in a Cap-and-Trade System. Environmental and Resource Economics, 47(2), 275-297. Ferrari, A., & Nispi Landi, V. (2023). Whatever it takes to save the planet? Central banks and unconventional green policy. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 28(2), 299-324. Figueres, C., Schellnhuber, H. J., Whiteman, G., Rockström, J., Hobley, A., & Rahmstorf, S. (2017). Three years to safeguard our climate. Nature, 546(7660), 593-595. Fischer, C., & Springborn, M. (2011). Emissions targets and the real business cycle: Intensity targets versus caps or taxes. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 62(3), 352-366 Golosov, M., Hassler, J., Krusell, P., & Tsyvinski, A. (2014). Optimal Taxes on Fossil Fuel in General Equilibrium. Econometrica, 82(1), 41-88. Heutel, G. (2012). How should environmental policy respond to business cycles? Optimal policy under persistent productivity shocks. Review of Economic Dynamics, 15(2), 244-264. Leeper, E. M., Plante, M., & Traum, N. (2010). Dynamics of fiscal financing in the United States. Journal of Econometrics, 156(2), 304-321. Metcalf, G. E., & Stock, J. H. (2023). The macroeconomic impact of Europe’s carbon taxes. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 15(3), 265-286. Rubin, J. D. (1996). A Model of Intertemporal Emission Trading, Banking, and Borrowing. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 31(3), 269-286. Schennach, S. M. (2000). The Economics of Pollution Permit Banking in the Context of Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 40(3), 189-210. Teo, W. L. (2009). Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Taiwanese Economy. Pacific Economic Review, 14(2), 194-231.zh_TW