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題名 南海灰色地帶戰略：中菲衝突和未來區域治理機會
The Gray Zone Strategy in the South China Sea: China-Philippines Conflict and Future Opportunity for Regional Governance作者 吳明智
Castro, Angelo Brian Tantoy貢獻者 劉復國
Liu, Fu-Kuo
吳明智
Castro, Angelo Brian Tantoy關鍵詞 灰色地帶
南海 (西菲律賓海)
結構現實主義
區域治理
Gray Zone
West Philippine Sea
Structural Realism
Regional Governance日期 2026 上傳時間 2-三月-2026 12:03:53 (UTC+8) 摘要 近年來，關於大國如何透過海上「灰色地帶」進行競逐之學術研究相對有限。本論文以結構現實主義為理論架構，採納攻勢現實主義與防禦現實主義之觀點，探討中國將「灰色地帶」作為海上戰術的運用，以及菲律賓於2012—2025年間在南海(西菲律賓海)面對此類戰術之回應。本論文採取質性研究途徑，運用歷史政策分析與過程追蹤方法，回答兩項核心研究問題：（1）菲律賓如何將反制灰色地帶脅迫提升為國家安全之優先事項？（2）即使中國因採行相關作為而承受顯著的外交成本，何以仍持續對菲律賓使用灰色地帶戰術？除檢視美菲同盟互動對菲律賓回應中國灰色地帶脅迫之影響外，本論文亦納入越南與馬來西亞之比較個案，分析其對中國灰色地帶脅迫的回應模式。研究發現顯示，灰色地帶行為之所以持續，主要源於灰色地帶競逐各方之權力落差、同盟關係中對「遭遺棄」或「遭牽連」風險之認知，以及制度在約束與治理層面的侷限。 本論文對灰色地帶理論提出補充與推進，並進一步指出聲索國與區域治理組織可採行之政策選項，以在不訴諸武裝衝突之情況下，降低衝突升高風險。
In recent years, there has been relatively little scholarly work on how great powers compete through maritime "gray zone". This dissertation applies structural realism's offensive and defensive versions to study China's use of the "gray zone" as a maritime tactic and the Philippines' responses to those tactics in the West Philippine Sea from 2012-2025. This dissertation uses qualitative historical-policy analysis and process-tracing methods to answer the two primary research questions: (1) How did the Philippines elevate countering gray zone coercion into a national security priority? (2) What accounts for China's persistent use of gray zone tactics against the Philippines even when China experiences significant diplomatic costs from doing so? In addition to examining the impact of U.S.-Philippine alliance dynamics on the Philippines' responses to Chinese gray zone coercion, this dissertation also examines comparative case studies of Vietnamese and Malaysian responses to Chinese gray zone coercion. The findings of this dissertation indicate that the persistence of gray zone behavior is due to the power disparities between the parties involved in gray zone competitions, the perceived risk of abandonment or entrapment in alliances, and limitations of institutions. This dissertation provides a contribution to gray zone theory and identifies policy options available to claimant states and regional governance organizations to mitigate escalation risks without resorting to armed conflict.參考文獻 ABS-CBN News. (2025, May 23). Resupply mission to Ayungin completed with no untoward incident for 8th time. ABS-CBN News. https://news.abs-cbn.com/ ABS-CBN News. (2025, August 23). 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South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3275354/why-has-sabina-shoal-become-china-philippine-flashpoint 描述 博士
國立政治大學
亞太研究英語博士學位學程(IDAS)
108265512資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108265512 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 劉復國 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Liu, Fu-Kuo en_US dc.contributor.author (作者) 吳明智 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) Castro, Angelo Brian Tantoy en_US dc.creator (作者) 吳明智 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Castro, Angelo Brian Tantoy en_US dc.date (日期) 2026 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-三月-2026 12:03:53 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-三月-2026 12:03:53 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-三月-2026 12:03:53 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0108265512 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/161833 - dc.description (描述) 博士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 亞太研究英語博士學位學程(IDAS) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 108265512 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 近年來，關於大國如何透過海上「灰色地帶」進行競逐之學術研究相對有限。本論文以結構現實主義為理論架構，採納攻勢現實主義與防禦現實主義之觀點，探討中國將「灰色地帶」作為海上戰術的運用，以及菲律賓於2012—2025年間在南海(西菲律賓海)面對此類戰術之回應。本論文採取質性研究途徑，運用歷史政策分析與過程追蹤方法，回答兩項核心研究問題：（1）菲律賓如何將反制灰色地帶脅迫提升為國家安全之優先事項？（2）即使中國因採行相關作為而承受顯著的外交成本，何以仍持續對菲律賓使用灰色地帶戰術？除檢視美菲同盟互動對菲律賓回應中國灰色地帶脅迫之影響外，本論文亦納入越南與馬來西亞之比較個案，分析其對中國灰色地帶脅迫的回應模式。研究發現顯示，灰色地帶行為之所以持續，主要源於灰色地帶競逐各方之權力落差、同盟關係中對「遭遺棄」或「遭牽連」風險之認知，以及制度在約束與治理層面的侷限。 本論文對灰色地帶理論提出補充與推進，並進一步指出聲索國與區域治理組織可採行之政策選項，以在不訴諸武裝衝突之情況下，降低衝突升高風險。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) In recent years, there has been relatively little scholarly work on how great powers compete through maritime "gray zone". This dissertation applies structural realism's offensive and defensive versions to study China's use of the "gray zone" as a maritime tactic and the Philippines' responses to those tactics in the West Philippine Sea from 2012-2025. This dissertation uses qualitative historical-policy analysis and process-tracing methods to answer the two primary research questions: (1) How did the Philippines elevate countering gray zone coercion into a national security priority? (2) What accounts for China's persistent use of gray zone tactics against the Philippines even when China experiences significant diplomatic costs from doing so? In addition to examining the impact of U.S.-Philippine alliance dynamics on the Philippines' responses to Chinese gray zone coercion, this dissertation also examines comparative case studies of Vietnamese and Malaysian responses to Chinese gray zone coercion. The findings of this dissertation indicate that the persistence of gray zone behavior is due to the power disparities between the parties involved in gray zone competitions, the perceived risk of abandonment or entrapment in alliances, and limitations of institutions. This dissertation provides a contribution to gray zone theory and identifies policy options available to claimant states and regional governance organizations to mitigate escalation risks without resorting to armed conflict. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 摘要 i Abstract ii CHAPTER I 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background of Study 1 Philippine Gray Zone Issue: Caught Unprepared 4 The Alliance Paradox: Entrapment vs. Abandonment 5 1.2 Research Motivation 5 1.3 Central Argument and Analytical Framework 6 1.4 Research Questions and Dissertation Map 7 1.5 Objectives of the Study 8 1.6 Expected Outcomes of the Research 9 1.7 Significance of Study 11 1.8 Scope and Limitations 12 Geographic and Temporal Scope of the Study 15 Units of Analysis and Levels of Explanation 16 CHAPTER II 17 REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE AND ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK 17 2.1 Gray Zone Concepts 17 Conceptual Development and Definition 17 Political Warfare as the Most Relevant Past Concept 19 From Hybrid Warfare to Gray Zone Strategy 20 Development of Doctrines in Revisionist States 21 Important Concepts 22 Relationship with Hybrid Warfare and Contemporary Conflict Dynamics 23 Militaristic Views on the Evolution of Gray Zones 25 Other Theories 28 2.2 Gray Zone in Asia 34 Ambiguity within Tactical Levels of Operation 34 At the Systemic Level 35 Incrementalism or Salami Slicing 35 Plausible Denial of Attribution 35 2.3 Institutions and Governance 39 ASEAN Regional Security Complex 41 Arctic Council as an Informal Institution: Strengths and Weaknesses 42 Comparative Implications for South China Sea Governance 43 2.4 Scholarship on Gray Zone Strategies 45 Analysis of Think Tanks 45 Journal Literature 46 Studies Focused on Policy Development and Government Reporting 47 2.5 Gaps and Synthesis 48 CHAPTER III 55 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 55 3.1 Design Selection 55 3.1.1 Historical Analysis Method 55 3.2 Policy Analysis Method 57 3.3 Sources of Data (Digitally Accessible) 59 3.3.1 Primary Sources 59 3.3.2 Secondary Literature 60 3.3.3 Source Evaluation Criteria 60 3.3.4 Chinese Official Documents and Chinese-Language Materials: Inclusion and Translation Protocol 60 3.3.5 Integration: Why Both Methods Work Together 61 3.4 Data Analysis Techniques 62 3.4.1 Historical Technique Analysis 62 3.4.2 Policy Technique Analysis 63 3.4.3 Theoretical Synthesis 63 3.4.4 Coding Scheme Aligned to “Threat Integration” and “Bases of Assertion” 63 3.5 Data Collection 64 3.6 Validity, Reliability, and Limitations 65 3.7 Ethical Issues 66 3.8 Causal Mechanisms and Process-Tracing Tests for Each Research Question 66 3.9 Chapter Transition: From Method to Chapter IV Analysis 67 CHAPTER IV 69 RESULTS 1: PHILIPPINE’S RESPONSES TO CHINA’S GRAY ZONE STRATEGY 2012 - 2025 69 4.1 Introduction: Analytical Roadmap and How Evidence is Used 69 4.2 Philippine Gray Zone Context (Threat Integration) 70 4.2.1 Framework for Defining Information Domain Evidence 72 4.2.2 Framework for Defining Information Domain Evidence 73 4.3 Incident–Policy Timeline: From Episodes to Policy Elevation 73 4.3.1 Aquino III (2012 – 2016) 74 4.3.2 Duterte (2016 – 2022) 75 4.3.3 Marcos Jr. (2022 – 2025) 78 4.4 Results: Threat Integration Findings (RQ1) 81 4.4.1 Physical-Material Disruptions 81 4.4.2 Institutional and Operational Responses by the Philippines 86 4.4.3 Economic Dependencies: A Cover or Concern? 89 4.4.4 Legal-Institutional Erosion 92 4.5 The Threat Integration Mechanism and Temporal Causality 92 4.6 Results: The Three Threat Dimensions and the Failure to Deter Revisionist Pressure 93 4.7 Answer to Research Question 1 94 CHAPTER V 95 RESULTS 2: CHINA’S PERSISTENCE, INSTITUTIONAL CONDITIONS, AND COMPARATIVE CLAIMANTS 95 5.1 Introduction: China’s Gray Zone Answers 95 5.2 China’s Bases of Assertion and the Logic of Persistence 95 5.3 Operational Conditions 96 5.4 Taiwan and Brunei: Reasons for Exclusion 97 5.5 Freedom of Navigation Operations 97 5.6 Institutional Conditions: Why ASEAN Is Compared to the Arctic Council 98 5.7 Neutral Definition of “String of Pearls” or “Pearl Chain” 99 5.8 Research Answer 2 and the Realist Implication 100 CHAPTER VI 102 CONCLUSION AND REGIONAL GOVERNANCE PROPOSAL: TOWARD A REGIONAL GOVERNANCE IN SOUTH CHINA SEA 102 6.1 Results Summary 102 6.2 Aligning Realism: Offensive vs. Defensive Realism 102 6.3 Contributions of this Study 105 6.3.1 Theoretical Contributions 105 6.4 A Southeast Asian Gray Zone Management Package: A Governance Proposal Based on Realism 107 6.5 Final Implication 108 REFERENCES 110 APPENDIX A 128 A.1 Operational Definitions and Coding Scheme 128 APPENDIX B 133 B.1 Process‑Tracing Tests and Diagnostic Evidence 133 APPENDIX C 139 C.1 Source Corpus, Inclusion Criteria, and Translation Protocol 139 APPENDIX D 142 D.1 Institutional Reference Tables 142 APPENDIX E 145 E.1 Chronology of Principal Episode Anchors Used in Chapter IV 145 APPENDIX F 149 F.1 Abbreviations and Acronyms 149 APPENDIX G 150 G.1 Evidence Log Template (for Auditability) 150 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1630144 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108265512 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 灰色地帶 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 南海 (西菲律賓海) zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 結構現實主義 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 區域治理 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Gray Zone en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) West Philippine Sea en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Structural Realism en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Regional Governance en_US dc.title (題名) 南海灰色地帶戰略：中菲衝突和未來區域治理機會 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Gray Zone Strategy in the South China Sea: China-Philippines Conflict and Future Opportunity for Regional Governance en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) ABS-CBN News. 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