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題名 2000-2024年尼加拉瓜痛苦指數的描述性分析
Descriptive analysis of the Misery Index in Nicaragua during the period 2000-2024
作者 艾梅
Altamirano, Alma Estela Hernandez
貢獻者 吳文傑
Wu, Wen-Chieh
艾梅
Alma Estela Hernandez Altamirano
關鍵詞 痛苦指數
通貨膨脹
失業
經濟福祉
尼加拉瓜
Misery Index
inflation
unemployment
economic well-being
Nicaragua
日期 2026
上傳時間 2-Mar-2026 12:19:23 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究分析了尼加拉瓜在2000年至2024年間的「痛苦指數」（Misery Index）之演變，涵蓋其簡單型、加權型與擴大型版本，旨在評估經濟困境的變化及其對民眾經濟福祉的影響。本研究採用描述性研究方法，使用來自官方來源的次級資料，主要取自尼加拉瓜中央銀行。痛苦指數的建構依不同版本納入關鍵的總體經濟變數，包括通貨膨脹率、失業率、利率及經濟成長率。 研究結果顯示，經濟困境呈現出異質性的演變特徵：在2000年代初期痛苦指數處於較高水準，自2009年後逐步下降，但在近年出現明顯的波動性。比較分析表明，隨著指數中納入更多變數，其經濟困境的幅度與波動程度亦隨之提高，顯示僅使用簡單型痛苦指數在某些時期可能低估實際的經濟困境程度。 從理論層面來看，研究結果顯示，通貨膨脹與失業之間的關係並未穩定遵循菲利普斯曲線所提出的傳統取捨關係，特別是在受到外部衝擊與結構性限制影響的時期。此外，擴大型痛苦指數揭示，即便在總體經濟相對穩定的階段，仍存在限制經濟福祉改善的結構性因素。 最後，本研究建立了痛苦指數與《國家減貧計畫》之間的概念性關聯，並得出結論：降低通貨膨脹與失業率有助於減輕經濟困境，但若缺乏長期結構性政策的配合，其影響仍然有限。整體而言，痛苦指數被證實為評估經濟福祉及分析尼加拉瓜公共政策成效的一項有效工具。
This thesis analyzes the evolution of the Misery Index in Nicaragua during the period 2000–2024, using its simple, weighted, and expanded versions, with the aim of assessing changes in economic distress and their implications for population well-being. The study adopts a descriptive methodological approach based on secondary data obtained from official sources, primarily the Central Bank of Nicaragua. The Misery Index is constructed using key macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, interest rates, and economic growth, depending on the version of the index applied. The results reveal a heterogeneous evolution of economic distress, characterized by high levels of the Misery Index in the early 2000s, a gradual decline after 2009, and episodes of increased volatility in recent years. The comparative analysis shows that the magnitude and volatility of economic distress increase as additional variables are incorporated into the index, indicating that the simple version may underestimate the true level of economic hardship in certain periods. From a theoretical perspective, the findings suggest that the relationship between inflation and unemployment does not consistently follow the traditional trade-off proposed by the Phillips Curve, particularly in periods affected by structural constraints and external shocks. Furthermore, the expanded Misery Index highlights the persistence of structural factors that limit improvements in economic well-being, even during periods of macroeconomic stability. The study also establishes a conceptual link between the Misery Index and the National Plan for the Fight against Poverty, concluding that reductions in inflation and unemployment contribute to lowering economic distress, although their impact is limited without complementary long-term structural policies. Overall, the Misery Index proves to be a useful tool for evaluating economic well-being and supporting the analysis of public policy effectiveness in Nicaragua.
參考文獻 Banco Central de Nicaragua. (2022). Informe anual de indicadores macroeconómicos 2022. Managua, Nicaragua: BCN. Banco Central de Nicaragua. (2023). Informe anual de indicadores macroeconómicos 2023. Managua, Nicaragua: BCN. Blanchard, O. (2017). Macroeconomics (7th ed.). Pearson Education. Blanchflower, D. G., Bell, D. N. F., Montagnoli, A., & Moro, M. (2013). The effects of macroeconomic shocks on well-being. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. https://www.bostonfed.org/employment2013/papers/Blanchflower_Session5.pdf CEPAL. (2022). Panorama Social de América Latina 2022. Santiago de Chile: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe. Cohen, I. K., Ferretti, F., & McIntosh, B. (2014). Decomposing the misery index: A dynamic approach. African Review of Economics and Finance, 6(2), 175–193. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2014.991089 Economist Intelligence Unit. (2003). The modified misery index: Tracking economic wellbeing. London: Economist Intelligence Unit. Figueroa, M., & Carrillo, P. (2022). Una versión ampliada del índice de miseria para Centroamérica: Evidencia empírica 2001–2020. Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Económico, 38(1), 97–118. https://doi.org/10.18235/rlade2022.38 Friedman, M. (1968). The role of monetary policy. The American Economic Review, 58(1), 1–17. García, J., & Ortega, S. (2023). Misery index, inequality and macroeconomic cycles in emerging economies. Journal of Economic Policy Studies, 15(3), 214–236. https://doi.org/10.1080/jeps.2023.15.3 Gobierno de Nicaragua. (2021). Plan Nacional de Lucha contra la Pobreza Multidimensional 2022–2026. Managua, Nicaragua: Secretaría Técnica de la Presidencia. Gómez, R. (2015). Análisis del índice de miseria en México: 1990–2014. Revista Latinoamericana de Economía, 12(2), 45–62. Hickman, B. G. (1977). The misery index and its variations. Journal of Economic Studies, 4(3), 23–37. Investopedia. (2003). Misery Index: Definition, components, history, and applications. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/miseryindex.asp Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London: Macmillan. Mankiw, N. G. (2012). Principios de economía (6.ª ed.). Cengage Learning. Okun, A. M. (1970). The political economy of prosperity. Brookings Institution. Pérez, L., & Arcia, J. (2020). Evolución del índice de miseria y bienestar económico en Nicaragua (2000–2018). Revista de Economía y Sociedad, 12(2), 43–59. Universidad Centroamericana (UCA). Phillips, A. W. (1958). The relationship between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957. Economica, 25(100), 283–299. Pontón, R. T. (2008). ¿Qué es la inflación? Universidad de La Rioja. https://dialnet.unirioja.es/descarga/articulo/4242031.pdf Ravallion, M. (2021). Macroeconomic misery by levels of income in America (NBER Working Paper No. 29050). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w29050 Restrepo, D. M. J. (2016). Desempleo: definiciones y algunas estadísticas para las trece. Universidad del Valle. https://socioeconomia.univalle.edu.co/images/publicaciones/documentos_de_trabajo/2016_06_15_DOC_TRAB_N_149.pdf Samuelson, P. A., & Solow, R. M. (1960). Analytical aspects of anti-inflation policy. The American Economic Review, 50(2), 177–194. Soto, L., & Reyes, P. (2018). Índice de miseria ponderado y su impacto en el consumo de los hogares chilenos. Revista de Economía y Sociedad, 15(1), 77–98. Vlandas, T. (2024). Pandemic misery index: How to overcome the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic? Social Indicators Research. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-024-03335-6 Welsch, H. (2014). What ever happened to the misery index? Investing.com. https://www.investing.com/analysis/what-ever-happened-to-the-misery-index-240553
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
109266016
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109266016
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 吳文傑zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Wu, Wen-Chiehen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 艾梅zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Alma Estela Hernandez Altamiranoen_US
dc.creator (作者) 艾梅zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Altamirano, Alma Estela Hernandezen_US
dc.date (日期) 2026en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-Mar-2026 12:19:23 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-Mar-2026 12:19:23 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Mar-2026 12:19:23 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0109266016en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/161842-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 109266016zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究分析了尼加拉瓜在2000年至2024年間的「痛苦指數」（Misery Index）之演變，涵蓋其簡單型、加權型與擴大型版本，旨在評估經濟困境的變化及其對民眾經濟福祉的影響。本研究採用描述性研究方法，使用來自官方來源的次級資料，主要取自尼加拉瓜中央銀行。痛苦指數的建構依不同版本納入關鍵的總體經濟變數，包括通貨膨脹率、失業率、利率及經濟成長率。 研究結果顯示，經濟困境呈現出異質性的演變特徵：在2000年代初期痛苦指數處於較高水準，自2009年後逐步下降，但在近年出現明顯的波動性。比較分析表明，隨著指數中納入更多變數，其經濟困境的幅度與波動程度亦隨之提高，顯示僅使用簡單型痛苦指數在某些時期可能低估實際的經濟困境程度。 從理論層面來看，研究結果顯示，通貨膨脹與失業之間的關係並未穩定遵循菲利普斯曲線所提出的傳統取捨關係，特別是在受到外部衝擊與結構性限制影響的時期。此外，擴大型痛苦指數揭示，即便在總體經濟相對穩定的階段，仍存在限制經濟福祉改善的結構性因素。 最後，本研究建立了痛苦指數與《國家減貧計畫》之間的概念性關聯，並得出結論：降低通貨膨脹與失業率有助於減輕經濟困境，但若缺乏長期結構性政策的配合，其影響仍然有限。整體而言，痛苦指數被證實為評估經濟福祉及分析尼加拉瓜公共政策成效的一項有效工具。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This thesis analyzes the evolution of the Misery Index in Nicaragua during the period 2000–2024, using its simple, weighted, and expanded versions, with the aim of assessing changes in economic distress and their implications for population well-being. The study adopts a descriptive methodological approach based on secondary data obtained from official sources, primarily the Central Bank of Nicaragua. The Misery Index is constructed using key macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, interest rates, and economic growth, depending on the version of the index applied. The results reveal a heterogeneous evolution of economic distress, characterized by high levels of the Misery Index in the early 2000s, a gradual decline after 2009, and episodes of increased volatility in recent years. The comparative analysis shows that the magnitude and volatility of economic distress increase as additional variables are incorporated into the index, indicating that the simple version may underestimate the true level of economic hardship in certain periods. From a theoretical perspective, the findings suggest that the relationship between inflation and unemployment does not consistently follow the traditional trade-off proposed by the Phillips Curve, particularly in periods affected by structural constraints and external shocks. Furthermore, the expanded Misery Index highlights the persistence of structural factors that limit improvements in economic well-being, even during periods of macroeconomic stability. The study also establishes a conceptual link between the Misery Index and the National Plan for the Fight against Poverty, concluding that reductions in inflation and unemployment contribute to lowering economic distress, although their impact is limited without complementary long-term structural policies. Overall, the Misery Index proves to be a useful tool for evaluating economic well-being and supporting the analysis of public policy effectiveness in Nicaragua.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Chapter 1: Introduction………………………………………11 1.1 Justification of the study…………………………11 1.2 Problem statement………………………13 1.3 Research objectives……………………14 1.3.1 Main objectives……………………14 1.3.2 Specific purposes of the study………………14 1.4 Research objectives……………………15 1.5 Scope of the study……………………16 1.6 Significance of the study…………………18 Chapter 2 Literature review…………………18 2.1 Key concepts………………18 2.1.1 Misery Index…………………18 2.1.2 Inflation………………………19 2.1.3 Unemployment rate…………………20 2.1.4 Weighted Misery Index…………………20 2.1.5 Extended Misery Index…………………21 2.2 Reviews of economy theory………………22 2.2.1 Approaches of economic theory………………22 2.2.1.1 Okuns theory and misery index………………22 2.2.1.2 Keynesian theory and economic well-being……………22 2.2.1.3 Monetarist theory and inflation control………………23 2.2.1.4 Empirical relationship………………23 2.2.1.4.1 The phillips curve………………23 2.2.1.4.2 Empirical relationship between inflation, unemployment and interest rate………………24 2.2.1.4.3 Relationship between the expanded misery index and economic growth…………………25 2.2.1.5 Economic theories related to Misery Business………25 2.3 Empirical literature………………29 Chapter 3 Research methodology…………………33 3.1 Research focus and type……………33 3.2 Population and sample……………33 3.3 Information sources……………34 3.4 Study variables………………34 3.5 Operationalization of the misery index……………35 3.6 Analysis tecniques………………36 Chapter 4: Results and data analysis……………37 4.1 Presentation of the results……………37 Chapter 5 General conclusion………………63 References……………68 Annexes…………72zh_TW
dc.format.extent 2276109 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109266016en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 痛苦指數zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 通貨膨脹zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 失業zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 經濟福祉zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 尼加拉瓜zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Misery Indexen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) inflationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) unemploymenten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) economic well-beingen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Nicaraguaen_US
dc.title (題名) 2000-2024年尼加拉瓜痛苦指數的描述性分析zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Descriptive analysis of the Misery Index in Nicaragua during the period 2000-2024en_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Banco Central de Nicaragua. (2022). Informe anual de indicadores macroeconómicos 2022. Managua, Nicaragua: BCN. Banco Central de Nicaragua. (2023). Informe anual de indicadores macroeconómicos 2023. Managua, Nicaragua: BCN. Blanchard, O. (2017). Macroeconomics (7th ed.). Pearson Education. Blanchflower, D. G., Bell, D. N. F., Montagnoli, A., & Moro, M. (2013). The effects of macroeconomic shocks on well-being. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. https://www.bostonfed.org/employment2013/papers/Blanchflower_Session5.pdf CEPAL. (2022). Panorama Social de América Latina 2022. Santiago de Chile: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe. Cohen, I. K., Ferretti, F., & McIntosh, B. (2014). Decomposing the misery index: A dynamic approach. African Review of Economics and Finance, 6(2), 175–193. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2014.991089 Economist Intelligence Unit. (2003). The modified misery index: Tracking economic wellbeing. London: Economist Intelligence Unit. Figueroa, M., & Carrillo, P. (2022). Una versión ampliada del índice de miseria para Centroamérica: Evidencia empírica 2001–2020. Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Económico, 38(1), 97–118. https://doi.org/10.18235/rlade2022.38 Friedman, M. (1968). The role of monetary policy. The American Economic Review, 58(1), 1–17. García, J., & Ortega, S. (2023). Misery index, inequality and macroeconomic cycles in emerging economies. Journal of Economic Policy Studies, 15(3), 214–236. https://doi.org/10.1080/jeps.2023.15.3 Gobierno de Nicaragua. (2021). Plan Nacional de Lucha contra la Pobreza Multidimensional 2022–2026. Managua, Nicaragua: Secretaría Técnica de la Presidencia. Gómez, R. (2015). Análisis del índice de miseria en México: 1990–2014. Revista Latinoamericana de Economía, 12(2), 45–62. Hickman, B. G. (1977). The misery index and its variations. Journal of Economic Studies, 4(3), 23–37. Investopedia. (2003). Misery Index: Definition, components, history, and applications. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/miseryindex.asp Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London: Macmillan. Mankiw, N. G. (2012). Principios de economía (6.ª ed.). Cengage Learning. Okun, A. M. (1970). The political economy of prosperity. Brookings Institution. Pérez, L., & Arcia, J. (2020). Evolución del índice de miseria y bienestar económico en Nicaragua (2000–2018). Revista de Economía y Sociedad, 12(2), 43–59. Universidad Centroamericana (UCA). Phillips, A. W. (1958). The relationship between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957. Economica, 25(100), 283–299. Pontón, R. T. (2008). ¿Qué es la inflación? Universidad de La Rioja. https://dialnet.unirioja.es/descarga/articulo/4242031.pdf Ravallion, M. (2021). Macroeconomic misery by levels of income in America (NBER Working Paper No. 29050). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w29050 Restrepo, D. M. J. (2016). Desempleo: definiciones y algunas estadísticas para las trece. Universidad del Valle. https://socioeconomia.univalle.edu.co/images/publicaciones/documentos_de_trabajo/2016_06_15_DOC_TRAB_N_149.pdf Samuelson, P. A., & Solow, R. M. (1960). Analytical aspects of anti-inflation policy. The American Economic Review, 50(2), 177–194. Soto, L., & Reyes, P. (2018). Índice de miseria ponderado y su impacto en el consumo de los hogares chilenos. Revista de Economía y Sociedad, 15(1), 77–98. Vlandas, T. (2024). Pandemic misery index: How to overcome the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic? Social Indicators Research. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-024-03335-6 Welsch, H. (2014). What ever happened to the misery index? Investing.com. https://www.investing.com/analysis/what-ever-happened-to-the-misery-index-240553zh_TW