| dc.contributor | 選研中心 | |
| dc.creator (作者) | Tsai, Tsung-han; Chang, Alex C. H. | |
| dc.creator (作者) | 蔡宗漢;張傳賢 | |
| dc.date (日期) | 2024-09 | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 7-May-2026 10:32:47 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 7-May-2026 10:32:47 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 7-May-2026 10:32:47 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/item?item_id=182360 | - |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | Overreporting of voting behavior by nonvoters is a well-known problem in survey research. It takes the form of systematic misreporting of their electoral participation by respondents in post-election surveys. Memory failure, social desirability motives, and feelings of guilt have been suggested as explanations for overreporting. We argue that nonvoters in referendums are likely to misreport in post-referendum surveys for the same reasons. In this article, we investigate the association between referendum participation and issue attitudes and the characteristics of nonvoters. We apply the methods of latent class modeling in our analysis of survey data collected by the Taiwan Institute for Governance and Communication Research (TIGCR) in 2019 after Taiwan’s 2018 referendum. From the results, we find that, first, nonvoters do not necessarily express their support for “the winner” as the findings of studies of overreporting in post-election surveys suggest. Second, voters and nonvoters were significantly divided by their attitudes toward LGBTI issues. Specifically, voters had a pro-LGBTI attitude while nonvoters were against LGBTI rights. Finally, a large proportion of nonvoters had a lower level of education, were older, or were KMT supporters. These results imply that there are more citizens who are against increased rights for the LGBTI community than we observe from the referendum outcomes. | |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 非投票受訪者的過度回答是調查研究中普遍存在的棘手問題，過度回答指 的是在選後的調查中，受訪者沒有據實回答他們的選舉參與情形。記憶錯誤、 社會期許動機以及內咎被認為是過度回答的可能解釋。本文認為非投票受訪者 同樣也會因為相同的理由，在公投的選後調查中有過度回答的情形。以此為據， 本文應用潛在類別模型分析台灣政經傳播研究中心在2018公投後的調查資料， 以探究非投票受訪者在公投參與和議題態度之間的關聯性。本文的第一個發現 是，公投的過度回答不會如同公職人員選舉一樣偏向獲勝者的一方。其次，公 投中的投票者和非投票者在 LGBTI 議題上有明顯的差異。具體地說，投票者 較支持 LGBTI 而非投票者則是持反對的立場。最後，非投票者的背景可能是 教育程度較低、年齡較長，或是國民黨的支持者。 | |
| dc.format.extent | 136 bytes | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | text/html | - |
| dc.relation (關聯) | 臺灣民主季刊, Vol.21, No.3, pp.57-91 | |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Partisan media exposure; Voter perceptions; Perceived policy extremity; The independence-unification issue; LGBTI | |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 投票過度回答; 公投; 臺灣政治; 潛在類別模型; 貝氏統計 | |
| dc.title (題名) | Vote Overreporting in Referendums: An Investigation of Nonvoters and Their Issue Attitudes | |
| dc.title (題名) | 公投研究中的過度回答－探究非投票者的議題態度 | |
| dc.type (資料類型) | article | |
