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題名 When leaders rock the boat: Leader reputation and the credibility of US commitments
作者 林伯雍
Lin, Poyung;Wu, Charles K. S.
貢獻者 國關中心
關鍵詞 Reputation; credibility; alliance politics; strategic decoupling; leader penalty
日期 2026-08
上傳時間 18-Aug-2026 15:09:41 (UTC+8)
摘要 Do allies translate negative assessments of a patron state’s leader into doubts about the credibility of the patron state? Recent work suggests that they do, but this article argues otherwise. It develops a theory of reputational filtering, whereby allied elites interpret leader-specific signals through beliefs about institutional continuity and access to the patron state’s bureaucracy and professional networks. The argument is examined through elite interviews conducted in Taipei in 2025. Taiwan is a hard case because its acute exposure to Chinese coercion should make local elites highly sensitive to signs of US volatility or abandonment. Yet many of the Taiwanese security elites interviewed distinguished between Donald Trump’s personal reputation and the broader credibility of the US. Confidence persisted because of beliefs in resilient US institutions and familiarity with American policy processes, though this resilience weakened when elites confronted signals they viewed as costly and abandonment-relevant.
關聯 Contemporary Security Policy, pp.1-29
資料類型 article
DOI https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2026.2712328
dc.contributor 國關中心
dc.creator (作者) 林伯雍
dc.creator (作者) Lin, Poyung;Wu, Charles K. S.
dc.date (日期) 2026-08
dc.date.accessioned 18-Aug-2026 15:09:41 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 18-Aug-2026 15:09:41 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 18-Aug-2026 15:09:41 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/item?item_id=184528-
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Do allies translate negative assessments of a patron state’s leader into doubts about the credibility of the patron state? Recent work suggests that they do, but this article argues otherwise. It develops a theory of reputational filtering, whereby allied elites interpret leader-specific signals through beliefs about institutional continuity and access to the patron state’s bureaucracy and professional networks. The argument is examined through elite interviews conducted in Taipei in 2025. Taiwan is a hard case because its acute exposure to Chinese coercion should make local elites highly sensitive to signs of US volatility or abandonment. Yet many of the Taiwanese security elites interviewed distinguished between Donald Trump’s personal reputation and the broader credibility of the US. Confidence persisted because of beliefs in resilient US institutions and familiarity with American policy processes, though this resilience weakened when elites confronted signals they viewed as costly and abandonment-relevant.
dc.format.extent 109 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype text/html-
dc.relation (關聯) Contemporary Security Policy, pp.1-29
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Reputation; credibility; alliance politics; strategic decoupling; leader penalty
dc.title (題名) When leaders rock the boat: Leader reputation and the credibility of US commitments
dc.type (資料類型) article
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.1080/13523260.2026.2712328
dc.doi.uri (DOI) https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2026.2712328