| dc.creator (作者) | Chen,Shu-Heng;Wang,Sun-Chong ;Tseng,Jie-Jun ;Li,Sai-Ping | en_US |
| dc.date (日期) | 2006 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 9-Jan-2009 12:18:52 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 9-Jan-2009 12:18:52 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 9-Jan-2009 12:18:52 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/23293 | - |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | The ability of accurate epidemic prediction facilitates early preparation for the disease and minimizes losses due to any strikes. We devised a platform on the Web for users to exchange their information / opinion on possible avian flu outbreaks in Taiwan. The likelihood of the first human infection of bird flu in Taiwan in, say, December 2005 is securitized in the form of a futures contract. Incentives are introduced via tournament: users trade the futures in the market on our Web server in order to win the awards in the end of the tournament. We ran such a tournament during the period between December 2005 and February 2006. Results of the futures’ prices correctly predicted no outbreaks of bird flu among the residents in Taiwan during the 3-month period, suggesting that the design of the futures exchange on the Web be a useful tool of event forecasting. | - |
| dc.format | application/ | en_US |
| dc.language | en | en_US |
| dc.language | en-US | en_US |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.relation (關聯) | New Mathematics and Natural Computation,2(3),271-279 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | avian influenza;futures exchange;market | - |
| dc.title (題名) | Prediction of Bird Flu A(H5N1) Outbreaks in Taiwan by Online Auction: Experimental Results | en_US |
| dc.type (資料類型) | article | en |
| dc.identifier.doi (DOI) | 10.1142/S1793005706000567 | - |
| dc.doi.uri (DOI) | http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S1793005706000567 | - |
