| dc.contributor.advisor | 張清福 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.advisor | none | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 蔡佳臻 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | 蔡佳臻 | zh_TW |
| dc.date (日期) | 2002 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 11-Sep-2009 17:34:27 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 11-Sep-2009 17:34:27 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 11-Sep-2009 17:34:27 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | G0903530061 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/30271 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 會計研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 90353006 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 91 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 本研究探討分析師盈餘預測偏差程度是否受到景氣循環的影響。首先以美國股市大盤指數的漲跌趨勢判定景氣循環的高峰時點，並藉此區分景氣循環由上往下反轉與否之依據。其次，探討當景氣由上往下反轉時，分析師盈餘預測的偏差程度是否有明顯增加的現象。最後，探討預測該公司之分析師人數、公司盈餘變動程度、公司發生損失及分析師盈餘預測的分散程度與分析師盈餘預測偏差程度之相關性，於景氣由上往下反轉時期與景氣穩定成長時期是否會有顯著差異。 實證結果顯示：(1)分析師盈餘預測偏差程度的確會受到景氣循環的影響。當景氣由上往下反轉時，分析師未能掌握景氣循環的脈動，立即修正其盈餘預測，而是傾向發佈具樂觀性偏差的盈餘預測。(2)處於景氣由上往下反轉時期，預測該公司之分析師人數、公司發生損失及分析師預測盈餘分散程度對分析師盈餘預測的偏差程度之影響會產生強化效果。然而，本研究並無充足證據顯示，公司盈餘變動程度與分析師盈餘預測偏差程度之相關性會受到景氣由上往下反轉而有所不同。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | This study investigates whether business cycle affects bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts. Based on NASDAQ market index, an economic sudden slump is selected for examining whether the bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts is more obvious during the period of the economic slump. On top of this, the association between the bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts and some economic factors including number of analysts following, change in earnings, firm loss and forecast dispersion in the economic sudden slump is also explored. The empirical results show that business cycle in analysts’ earnings forecasts indeed influences bias. When the economic sudden slump happens, analysts are not aware of business cycle’s fluctuation in time to revise their earnings forecasts; instead they trend to issue optimistic bias in earnings forecasts. In the economic sudden slump, the number of analysts following, firm loss and forecast dispersion deeply affect bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts. However, this study does not find sufficient evidence that the association between change in earnings and bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts is more obvious during the period of economic sudden slump. | en_US |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 目 錄 第壹章 緒論 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 研究問題 2 第三節 研究架構 3 第貳章 文獻探討 第一節 景氣循環基本理論 4 第二節 文獻回顧 11 第參章 研究方法 第一節 實證假設 17 第二節 研究變數 22 第三節 資料來源與處理 26 第四節 樣本資料 26 第五節 統計方法 27 第肆章 實證結果與分析 第一節 基本敍述統計量 28 第二節 實證結果分析 30 第三節 敏感性分析 39 第伍章 結論與建議 第一節 研究結論 44 第二節 研究限制 45 第三節 研究建議 46 參考文獻 中文部份 47 英文部份 48 表 目 錄 表一 各變數之敍述統計量 28 表二 皮爾森相關係數矩陣 29 表三 分析師盈餘預測偏差程度是否受到景氣循環影響之迴歸結果-式(1) ─不含交叉相乘項 32 表四 預期與實際結果彙總比較表 32 表五 景氣循環影響與分析師盈餘預測的偏差程度之迴歸結果-式(2) ─含交叉相乘項 36 表六 預期與實際結果彙總比較表-式(2) 37 表七 各變數之VIF值 38 表八 分析師盈餘預測偏差程度是否受到景氣循環影響之迴歸結果-式(1a) ─不含交叉相乘項 40 表九 景氣循環影響與分析師盈餘預測的偏差程度之迴歸結果-式(2a) ─含交叉相乘項 41 表十 分析師盈餘預測偏差程度是否受到景氣循環影響之迴歸結果-式(1b) ─不含交叉相乘項 42 表十一 景氣循環影響與分析師盈餘預測的偏差程度之迴歸結果-式(2b) ─含交叉相乘項 43 表十二 實證結果彙總表 45 圖 目 錄 圖1 Mitchell (1951)景氣循環之劃分 6 圖2 我國經建會景氣循環階段之劃分 7 圖3 美國國家經濟研究局 (NBER)景氣循環時段之劃分 8 圖4 大盤指數漲跌趨勢圖 10 | zh_TW |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0903530061 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 景氣循環 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 分析師預測 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Business Cycle | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Analysts` Forecasts | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | 景氣循環與分析師預測偏差程度之關係 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | none | en_US |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
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