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題名 我國財務預測制度與資訊不對稱之關聯性研究
作者 林盈妗
Lin, Ying Ching
貢獻者 林美花
林盈妗
Lin, Ying Ching
關鍵詞 財務預測
資訊不對稱
股票交易量
股價變異性
市場深度
Financial forecast
Information asymmetry
Trading volume
Price volatility
Market depth
日期 2005
上傳時間 11-Sep-2009 17:37:12 (UTC+8)
摘要 過去研究指出,公司管理當局可藉由即時揭露更多攸關資訊以降低市場之資訊不對稱,而管理當局所發布之財務預測亦為揭露資訊之一種。我國證管會於民國八十年五月起正式實施強制性財務預測制度,影響資本市場甚鉅。本研究旨在探討管理當局所發布之財務預測對資本市場資訊不對稱之影響,進而推論我國強制性財務預測制度對於降低資本市場之資訊不對稱是否有其功效。
     本研究採用股票交易量、股價變異性及市場深度作為資訊不對稱之代理變數,實證結果顯示:
     1.在強制性財務預測制度實施前,自願發布財務預測之公司於預測發布後,其資訊不對稱顯著較預測發布前降低;然與未發布財務預測公司相較之結果卻顯示,以股票交易量為資訊不對稱之代理變數時,發布財測公司於預測發布後之資訊不對稱反而顯著較未發布財測者為高。
     2.在強制性財務預測制度實施後,強制或自願發布財務預測之公司於預測發布後,其資訊不對稱程度仍顯著較其發布前降低;而以股價變異性為資訊不對稱代理變數之結果亦顯示,發布財測公司於預測發布後之資訊不對稱顯著較未發布公司為低。
     3.以市場深度為資訊不對稱代理變數之結果顯示,在強制性財務預測制度實施後,發布強制性財務預測之公司,其資訊不對稱於預測發布後顯著降低;此外,與發布自願性財務預測公司相較之結果顯示,發布強制性財測公司於預測發布後,其資訊不對稱程度不顯著高於發布自願性財務預測者。
A firm can increase levels of disclosure to lower the information asymmetry. Financial forecast released by managers is also one of information about corporation. Our country began to implement the mandatory financial forecast regulations since May, 1991. This study mainly investigates the association between financial forecast released by companies and the mandatory financial forecast regulations. Furthermore , it also investigates that if the regulations effectively mitigate information asymmetry.
     This study uses trading volume, price volatility, and market depth as proxies for the information asymmetry. The empirical results show that:
     1.Before May, 1991, corporations with voluntary forecast significantly mitigated the information asymmetry after the forecast released. But the information asymmetry (use trading volume as a proxy) of corporations after forecast released was not significantly lower than corporations without forecast.
     2.After May, 1991, corporations with mandatory or voluntary forecast also significantly mitigated the information asymmetry after the forecast released. And the information asymmetry (use price volatility as a proxy) of corporations after forecast released was significantly lower than corporations without forecast.
     3.After May, 1991, corporations with mandatory forecast significantly mitigated the information asymmetry (use market depth as a proxy) after the forecast released. And the information asymmetry of corporations after mandatory forecast released was not significantly higher than corporations with voluntary forecast.
參考文獻 中文部分
宋義德,1996,管理當局自願性財務預測準確性與資訊內涵之研究,國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文。
吳安妮,1993,臺灣經理人員主動揭露盈餘預測資訊內涵之實證研究,會計評論,第27期(4月):76-107。
吳安妮,1997,臺灣經理人員主動揭露盈餘預測之實證研究,會計評論,第30期(3月):253-269。
李建然,1997,影響台灣上市公司自願性盈餘預測行為因素之研究,國立政治大學會計研究所未出版博士論文。
李建然,2000,影響台灣上市公司自願性盈餘預測頻率之研究,會計評論,第32期:49-79。
金成隆、林修葳和林美鳳,2002,新上市公司股價異常漲跌與財務預測關係之研究,會計評論,第34期,第31-56頁。
林靜香,1994,我國財務預測公告資訊內涵之研究,國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文。
許盟,1999,我國董事會結構與自願性盈餘預測行為之研究,國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文。
陳北緯,1995,臺灣地區上市公司財務預測宣告前後股票價差行為之研究,國立中正大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文。
楊金鳳,1998,強制性財務預測揭露對法人投資機構交易量之影響,國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文。
廖靜如,1994,準不準有關係!財務預測資訊公開體系換檔躍進,會計研究月刊,第102期(5月):19-24。
蔡玉璇,2000,強制性財務預測對股價及交易量影響之研究,國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文。
蔡醒亞,1999,我國上市公司月營業收入與股票交易量關聯性,國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文。
賴虹霖,2004,我國財務預測制度改革之實證研究,國立台北大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文。
英文部分
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Atiase, R. K. 1985. Predisclosure information, firm capitalization and security price behavior around earnings announcements. Journal of Accounting Research 23 (Spring): 21-36.
Atiase, R. K. 1987. Market implications of predisclosure information, size and exchange effects. Journal of Accounting Research 25 (Spring): 168-176.
Bamber, L. S., and Y. S. Cheon. 1995. Differential price and volume reactions to accounting earnings announcements. The Accounting Review 70 (July): 417-441.
Barth, M. E. and R. Kasznik. 1999. Share repurchases and intangible assets. Journal of Accounting and Economics 28 (December): 211-241.
Bartov, E., and G. Bodnar. 1996. Alternative accounting methods, information asymmetry and liquidity: theory and evidence. The Accounting Review 71 (July):397-418.
Beaver, W. 1968. The information content of annual earnings announcements. Journal of Accounting Research 6 (Supplement): 67-92.
Beaver, W. 1998. Financial reporting: an accounting revolution. 3rd ed. Prentice-Hall.
Bushman, R., and A. Smith. 2001. Financial accounting information and corporate government. Journal of Accounting and Economics 32: 237-333.
Chiang, R. and P. C. Venkatesh. 1988. Insider holdings and perceptions of information asymmetry: a note. The Journal of Finance 43 (September): 1041-1048.
Coller, M. and T. L. Yohn. 1997. Management forecasts and information asymmetry: an examination of bid-ask spreads. Journal of Accounting Research 35 (Autumn): 181-191.
Collins, D. 1975. SEC product-line reporting and market efficiency. Journal of Financial Economics 2 (June): 125-164.
Copeland, T. E., and D. Galai. 1983. Information effects on the bid-ask spread. The Journal of Finance 38 (December): 1457-1469.
Daouk, H., C. M. C. Lee, and D. Ng. 2004. Capital market governance: how do security laws affect market performance. Working Paper. University of Ithaca.
Demsetz, H. 1968. The cost of transacting. Quarterly Journal of Economics (February): 33-35.
Epps, T. 1976. The demand for brokers’ services: the relation between security trading volume and transaction cost. Bell Journal of Economics 7 (Spring): 163-194.
Glosten, L. R., and P. R. Milgrom. 1985. Bid, ask, and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders. Journal of Financial Economics 14 (March): 71-100.
Grinblatt, M. and C. Y. Hwang. 1989. Signaling and the pricing of new issues. Journal of Finance 44 (June): 393-420.
Hakansson, N.H. 1977. Interim disclosure and public forecasts – an economic analysis and a framework for choice. The Accounting Review 52 (April):396-416.
Hamilton, J. 1978. Marketplace organization and marketability: NASDAQ, the stock exchange, and the national market system. The Journal of Finance 33 (May): 487-503.
Imhoff, E., and G. Lobo. 1992. The effect of ex ante earnings uncertainty on earnings response coefficients. The Accounting Review 67 (April): 427-439.
Karpoff, J. 1986. A theory of trading volume. The Journal of Finance 41 (December): 1069-1087.
King, R. G. Pownall and G. Waymire. 1990. Expectations adjustment via timely management forecasts: review, synthesis, and suggestions for future research. Journal of Accounting Literature 9: 113-144.
Korajczyk, R., D. Lucas, and R. McDonald. 1991. The effect of information releases on the pricing and timing of equity issues. Review of Financial Studies 4 (4): 685-708.
Lang, M., and R. Lundholm. 1993. Cross-sectional determinants of analyst ratings of corporate disclosures. Journal of Accounting Research 31 (Autumn): 246-271.
Leuz, C. 1999a. Proprietary versus non-proprietary disclosures: voluntary cash flow statements and business segment reports in Germany. Working Paper. University of Pennsylvania.
Leuz, C. 2003. IAS versus U.S. GAAP: information asymmetry-based evidence from Germany’s new market. Journal of Accounting Research 41 (June):445-472.
Leuz, C., and R. E. Verrecchia. 2000. The economic consequences of increased disclosure. Journal of Accounting Research 38 (Supplement): 91-124.
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Pownall, G., C. Wasley, and G. Waymire. 1993. The stock price effects of alternative types of management earnings forecasts. The Accounting Review 68 (Autumn): 85-105.
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
會計研究所
92353017
94
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0923530171
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林美花zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林盈妗zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lin, Ying Chingen_US
dc.creator (作者) 林盈妗zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Lin, Ying Chingen_US
dc.date (日期) 2005en_US
dc.date.accessioned 11-Sep-2009 17:37:12 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 11-Sep-2009 17:37:12 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 11-Sep-2009 17:37:12 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0923530171en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/30297-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 會計研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 92353017zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 94zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 過去研究指出,公司管理當局可藉由即時揭露更多攸關資訊以降低市場之資訊不對稱,而管理當局所發布之財務預測亦為揭露資訊之一種。我國證管會於民國八十年五月起正式實施強制性財務預測制度,影響資本市場甚鉅。本研究旨在探討管理當局所發布之財務預測對資本市場資訊不對稱之影響,進而推論我國強制性財務預測制度對於降低資本市場之資訊不對稱是否有其功效。
     本研究採用股票交易量、股價變異性及市場深度作為資訊不對稱之代理變數,實證結果顯示:
     1.在強制性財務預測制度實施前,自願發布財務預測之公司於預測發布後,其資訊不對稱顯著較預測發布前降低;然與未發布財務預測公司相較之結果卻顯示,以股票交易量為資訊不對稱之代理變數時,發布財測公司於預測發布後之資訊不對稱反而顯著較未發布財測者為高。
     2.在強制性財務預測制度實施後,強制或自願發布財務預測之公司於預測發布後,其資訊不對稱程度仍顯著較其發布前降低;而以股價變異性為資訊不對稱代理變數之結果亦顯示,發布財測公司於預測發布後之資訊不對稱顯著較未發布公司為低。
     3.以市場深度為資訊不對稱代理變數之結果顯示,在強制性財務預測制度實施後,發布強制性財務預測之公司,其資訊不對稱於預測發布後顯著降低;此外,與發布自願性財務預測公司相較之結果顯示,發布強制性財測公司於預測發布後,其資訊不對稱程度不顯著高於發布自願性財務預測者。
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) A firm can increase levels of disclosure to lower the information asymmetry. Financial forecast released by managers is also one of information about corporation. Our country began to implement the mandatory financial forecast regulations since May, 1991. This study mainly investigates the association between financial forecast released by companies and the mandatory financial forecast regulations. Furthermore , it also investigates that if the regulations effectively mitigate information asymmetry.
     This study uses trading volume, price volatility, and market depth as proxies for the information asymmetry. The empirical results show that:
     1.Before May, 1991, corporations with voluntary forecast significantly mitigated the information asymmetry after the forecast released. But the information asymmetry (use trading volume as a proxy) of corporations after forecast released was not significantly lower than corporations without forecast.
     2.After May, 1991, corporations with mandatory or voluntary forecast also significantly mitigated the information asymmetry after the forecast released. And the information asymmetry (use price volatility as a proxy) of corporations after forecast released was significantly lower than corporations without forecast.
     3.After May, 1991, corporations with mandatory forecast significantly mitigated the information asymmetry (use market depth as a proxy) after the forecast released. And the information asymmetry of corporations after mandatory forecast released was not significantly higher than corporations with voluntary forecast.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論
      第一節 研究動機與目的
      第二節 研究問題
      第三節 章節架構
     第二章 文獻探討
      第一節 我國財務預測制度之規範
      第二節 資訊揭露與財務預測之相關文獻
      第三節 資本市場及資訊不對稱之相關文獻
     第三章 研究方法
      第一節 研究假說之建立
      第二節 研究期間、樣本選取與資料來源
      第三節 研究方法與變數之衡量
     第四章 實證結果與分析
      第一節 樣本篩選及敘述性統計分析
      第二節 迴歸分析
     第五章 結論與建議
      第一節 研究結論
      第二節 研究限制
      第三節 對後續研究之建議
     參考文獻
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0923530171en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 財務預測zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 資訊不對稱zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 股票交易量zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 股價變異性zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 市場深度zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Financial forecasten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Information asymmetryen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Trading volumeen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Price volatilityen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Market depthen_US
dc.title (題名) 我國財務預測制度與資訊不對稱之關聯性研究zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部分zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 宋義德,1996,管理當局自願性財務預測準確性與資訊內涵之研究,國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 吳安妮,1993,臺灣經理人員主動揭露盈餘預測資訊內涵之實證研究,會計評論,第27期(4月):76-107。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 吳安妮,1997,臺灣經理人員主動揭露盈餘預測之實證研究,會計評論,第30期(3月):253-269。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 李建然,1997,影響台灣上市公司自願性盈餘預測行為因素之研究,國立政治大學會計研究所未出版博士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 李建然,2000,影響台灣上市公司自願性盈餘預測頻率之研究,會計評論,第32期:49-79。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 金成隆、林修葳和林美鳳,2002,新上市公司股價異常漲跌與財務預測關係之研究,會計評論,第34期,第31-56頁。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 林靜香,1994,我國財務預測公告資訊內涵之研究,國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 許盟,1999,我國董事會結構與自願性盈餘預測行為之研究,國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 陳北緯,1995,臺灣地區上市公司財務預測宣告前後股票價差行為之研究,國立中正大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 楊金鳳,1998,強制性財務預測揭露對法人投資機構交易量之影響,國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 廖靜如,1994,準不準有關係!財務預測資訊公開體系換檔躍進,會計研究月刊,第102期(5月):19-24。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 蔡玉璇,2000,強制性財務預測對股價及交易量影響之研究,國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 蔡醒亞,1999,我國上市公司月營業收入與股票交易量關聯性,國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文。zh_TW
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