| dc.contributor.advisor | 陳錦烽 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 郭經緯 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | 郭經緯 | zh_TW |
| dc.date (日期) | 2006 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 11-Sep-2009 17:40:28 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 11-Sep-2009 17:40:28 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 11-Sep-2009 17:40:28 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | G0943530301 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/30328 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 會計研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 94353030 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 95 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 本研究從損益表角度切入，驗證分析師盈餘預測之修正與未預期盈餘組成項目變動之關係，是否有助於分析師預測公司未來盈餘的波動。實證結果顯示，分析師在不同時間點所做的預測修正與未預期盈餘組成項目變動顯著相關。分析師預測公司當期及次期盈餘時，會考量其未預期盈餘組成項目。此外，分析師預測修正與未預期盈餘組成項目之關連性與兩者之時距呈反向關係，亦即次期盈餘預測之修正與當期未預期盈餘組成項目之關係顯著較低。再者，分析師對當期（以月份為基礎）盈餘的累積預測修正與上一期的未預期盈餘組成項目息息相關，且隨著時間的推移，二者之關連程度愈趨明顯。整體而言，損益表盈餘組成項目之變動對分析師在不同時間點所做之盈餘預測，具有價值攸關性。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | This study examines whether earnings components can help financial analysts predict firms’ earnings by investigating the association between analysts’ forecast revisions and firms’ unexpected changes in earnings components. Our results show that analysts’ forecast revisions made in different time horizons are consistently associated with unexpected changes in earnings components. Financial analysts are able to incorporate current-year unexpected earnings components into their current and future earnings forecasts even before firms officially release this information. Current-year’s unexpected earnings components are, however, not fully incorporated into analysts’ forecasts of future earnings. Analysts appear to wait for more information releases regarding firms’ future earnings and delay their revisions of future earnings forecasts. This is consistent with the evidence that the cumulative revisions of current earnings forecasts are generally associated with its prior-year’s unexpected earnings components, and the association appears to be stronger as time progresses. Overall, this study provides evidence suggesting that earnings components do have value relevance and can help financial analysts identify firms’ earnings changes over time. | en_US |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 研究問題 4 第三節 研究流程與論文架構 5 第二章 文獻回顧 7 第一節 管理當局或分析師預測之修正 8 第二節 財務報告與分析師盈餘之預測 11 第三章 研究方法 13 第一節 觀念性架構 13 第二節 研究假說、模型與變數衡量 14 第三節 樣本選取與資料來源 26 第四章 實證結果與分析 32 第一節 基本資料分析 32 第二節 相關性分析 38 第三節 複迴歸分析 44 第四節 敏感性分析 54 第五章 研究結論、限制與建議 62 第一節 研究結論 62 第二節 研究限制 63 第三節 建議研究方向 64 參考文獻 65 表次 頁次 【表3－1】 樣本公司選取過程（假說一及假說二） 29 【表3－2】 樣本公司選取過程（假說三） 30 【表4－1】 樣本公司產業別分布 33 【表4－2】 假說一變數敘述性統計量（N=1,476） 35 【表4－3】 假說二變數敘述性統計量（N=1,223） 36 【表4－4】 假說三變數敘述性統計量（N=1,142） 37 【表4－5】 假說一PEARSON相關係數矩陣 39 【表4－6】 假說二PEARSON相關係數矩陣 41 【表4－7】 假說三PEARSON相關係數矩陣 43 【表4－8】 模型一之迴歸結果 46 【表4－9】 模型二之迴歸結果 48 【表4－10】 模型三之迴歸結果（所有樣本） 51 【表4－11】 模型三之迴歸結果（績效較好之公司） 52 【表4－12】 模型三之迴歸結果（績效較差之公司） 53 【表4－13】 敏感性分析之一：模型一之迴歸結果 57 【表4－14】 敏感性分析之二：模型二之迴歸結果 58 【表4－15】 敏感性分析之三：模型三之迴歸結果（所有樣本） 59 【表4－16】 敏感性分析之四：模型三之迴歸結果（績效較好之公司） 60 【表4－17】 敏感性分析之五：模型三之迴歸結果（績效較差之公司） 61 圖次 頁次 【圖1－1】 研究流程 5 【圖3－1】 本研究之觀念性架構 14 【圖3－2】 財務分析師預測修正與未預期盈餘組成項目 15 | zh_TW |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0943530301 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 分析師預測修正 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 預測誤差 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 盈餘組成項目 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | analysts’forcast revision | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | forecast errors | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | earnings components | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | 分析師預測修正與盈餘組成項目變動關連性之實證研究 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | Relationship between revision of analysts’forecasts and changes in earnings’components: An empirical stduy | en_US |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
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