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題名 The Impacts of Foreign Analysts` Recommendations on Taiwan`s Stock Market
作者 張容容
Chang, Jungjung
貢獻者 張元晨
Chang, Yuanchen
張容容
Chang, Jungjung
關鍵詞 Analyst` Recommendations
Stock Price
Trading Volume
日期 2003
上傳時間 2009-09-14
摘要 This paper investigates both the information contents of recommendations disseminated by foreign security firms and the interaction of foreign security firms’ trading activities with their recommendations in Taiwan’s stock market. Using event study, correlation test, and regression analysis, we find negative average abcdrmal returns(AARs) and average cumulative abcdrmal returns(CARs) for negative and neutral foreign analysts’ recommendations levels and recommendation changes in the pre-recommendation period. AARs and CARs for positive recommendations in pre-recommendation period are positive, but reverse to negative three days after the event day. Our results also show that correlation coefficients of recommendations (both in recommendation levels and recommendation changes) and holding period returns are significantly positive in the pre-recommendation period, but insignificantly negative in the post-recommendation period.
     In the regression analyses, we find that price momentum factor is significantly related to foreign analysts’ recommendation, but the incremental contribution of this factor to foreign analysts’ recommendations are marginal and not significant. We also find that foreign security firms respond more rigorously to stocks receiving recommendation above buy recommendations and stocks being downgraded. These results show that foreign security firms are more conservative toward trading stocks in Taiwan’s stock market. They only buy stocks above buy recommendations (in a delay pattern), but immediately sell downgraded stocks.
參考文獻 [1] Barber, Brad M., and Douglas Loeffler (1993), “The dartboard column: Second-hand information and price pressure”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 28, p. 273-284.
[2] Barber, Brad M., Reuven Lehavy, Maureen McNichols, and Brett Trueman (2001), “Can investors profit from the prophets? Security analyst recommendations and stock returns”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 56, p. 531-563.
[3] Bauman, Datta, and Iskandar-Datta (1995), “Investment analyst recommendations: A test of the announcement effect and the valuable information effect”, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, Vol. 22, p. 659-670.
[4] Beneish , Messod D. (1991), “Stock price and the dissemination of analysts` recommendations”, Journal of Business, Vol. 64, p. 393-416.
[5] Chan, Louis K., Narasimhan Jegadeesh, and Josef Lakonishok (1996), “Momentum strategy”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 51, p. 1681-1713.
[6] Chan, Siu-Yeung, and Wai-Ming Fong (1996), “Reactions of the Hong Kong stock market to the publication of second-hand analysts` recommendations information”, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, Vol. 23, p. 1121-1139.
[7] Chang, Charles (2003), “Information footholds: Expatriate analysts in an emerging market”, UC-Berkeley working paper, February.
[8] Cooper, Rick A., Theodore E. Day, and Araig M. Lewis (2001), “Following the leader: A study of individual analysts` earnings forecasts”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 61, p. 383-416.
[9] Copeland, Thomas E., and David Mayers (1982), “The Value Line enigma: A case study of performance evaluation issues”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 10, p. 289-321.
[10] Dimson, Elory and Paul Marsh (1984), “An analysis of broker`s and analysts` unpublished forecasts of UK stock returns”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 39, p. 1257-1292.
[11] Huth, William L., and Brian A. Maris (1992), “Large and small firm stock price response to `Heard On The Street ` recommendation”, Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance, Vol. 7, p. 27-47.
[12] Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, and Sheridan Titman (1993), “Returns to buying winners and selling losers: Implications for stock market efficiency”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 48, p. 65-91.
[13] Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, Joonghyuk Kim, Susan D. Krische, and Charles M. C. Lee (2002), “Analyzing the analysts: When do recommendations add value?”, Case Western Reserve University, Cornell University, and University of Illinois working paper, May.
[14] Kim, Sok Tae, Ji-Chai Lin and Myron B. Slovin (1997), “Market structure, informed trading, and analysts` recommendations”, Journal of Financial Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 32, p. 507-524
[15] Krische, Susan D., and Charles M. C. Lee (2000), “The information content of analyst stock recommendations”, Cornell University and Johnson Graduate School of Management working paper, December.
[16] Lee, C. M. C., and B. Swaminathan (2000), “Price momentum and trading volume”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 55, p. 2017-2070.
[17] Lin, H. W., and M. F. McNichols (1998), “Underwriting relationship, analysts` earnings forecasts and investment recommendation”, Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol. 25, p. 101-127.
[18] Liu, Pu, Stanley D. Smith, and Aznat A. Syed (1990), “Stock price reactions to the Wall Street Journal`s securities recommendations”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 25, p. 399-410.
[19] Michaely, R., and K. Womack (1999), “Conflict of interest and the credibility of underwriter analyst recommendations”, Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 12, p. 653-686.
[20] Seasholes, Mark S. (2000), “Smart foreign traders in emerging markets”, Harvard University working paper, January.
[21] Stickel, Scott E. (1985), “The effect of Value Line investment survey rank changes on common stock price”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 14, p. 121-143.
[22] Womack, Kent L. (1996), “Do brokerage analysts` recommendations have investment value?”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 51, p. 137-167.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理研究所
91357018
92
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0091357018
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 張元晨zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chang, Yuanchenen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 張容容zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chang, Jungjungen_US
dc.creator (作者) 張容容zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chang, Jungjungen_US
dc.date (日期) 2003en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2009-09-14-
dc.date.available 2009-09-14-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2009-09-14-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0091357018en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/30970-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財務管理研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 91357018zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 92zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper investigates both the information contents of recommendations disseminated by foreign security firms and the interaction of foreign security firms’ trading activities with their recommendations in Taiwan’s stock market. Using event study, correlation test, and regression analysis, we find negative average abcdrmal returns(AARs) and average cumulative abcdrmal returns(CARs) for negative and neutral foreign analysts’ recommendations levels and recommendation changes in the pre-recommendation period. AARs and CARs for positive recommendations in pre-recommendation period are positive, but reverse to negative three days after the event day. Our results also show that correlation coefficients of recommendations (both in recommendation levels and recommendation changes) and holding period returns are significantly positive in the pre-recommendation period, but insignificantly negative in the post-recommendation period.
     In the regression analyses, we find that price momentum factor is significantly related to foreign analysts’ recommendation, but the incremental contribution of this factor to foreign analysts’ recommendations are marginal and not significant. We also find that foreign security firms respond more rigorously to stocks receiving recommendation above buy recommendations and stocks being downgraded. These results show that foreign security firms are more conservative toward trading stocks in Taiwan’s stock market. They only buy stocks above buy recommendations (in a delay pattern), but immediately sell downgraded stocks.
zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents Acknowledgments III
     Abstract IV
     List of Figures V
     List of Tables VI
     1. Introduction 1
     1.1. Motivations of the study 1
     1.2. Objectives of the study 4
     2. Literature Review 6
     2.1. The Effect of Analysts’ Recommendations on World’s Stock Markets 6
     2.2. The Effect of Analysts’ Recommendations on Taiwan’s Stock Market 11
     2.3. The Impact of the QFII’s Transaction on Taiwan’s Stock Market 13
     2.3.1. QFII’s Net Purchase or Sell Volumes 13
     2.3.2. QFII’s Holdings and Stock Prices 14
     2.3.3. The Intercations between Foreign Analysts’ Recommendations with QFII’s Transactions 15
     2.4. Trading Activities 17
     2.4.1. Stock Returns and Trading Activities 17
     2.4.2. Recommendations and Trading Activities 18
     3. Data Description and Research Methodology 20
     3.1. Data Description 20
     3.1.1. Stock Price Data 20
     3.1.2. Foreign Analysts’ Recommendations 20
     3.1.3. Calculation of Foreign Analysts’ Recommendation Consensus 26
     3.2. Hypotheses 28
     3.3. Methodology 29
     3.3.1. Event Study 29
     3.3.2. Correlation and Regressions Analysis 33
     4. Empirical Results 36
     4.1. The Impacts of Analysts’ Recommendations on Stock Prices 36
     4.1.1. Results from Event Study Methodology 36
     4.1.2. Results from Correlation and Regression Analysis Mothodology 48
     4.2. Results from Interactions between QFII’s Trading Activities with Their Recommendations 67
     5. Summary and Conclusions 98
     5.1. Summary of This Study 98
     5.2. Suggestions for Future Research 100
     Bibliography 101
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0091357018en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Analyst` Recommendationsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Stock Priceen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Trading Volumeen_US
dc.title (題名) The Impacts of Foreign Analysts` Recommendations on Taiwan`s Stock Marketzh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [1] Barber, Brad M., and Douglas Loeffler (1993), “The dartboard column: Second-hand information and price pressure”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 28, p. 273-284.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [2] Barber, Brad M., Reuven Lehavy, Maureen McNichols, and Brett Trueman (2001), “Can investors profit from the prophets? Security analyst recommendations and stock returns”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 56, p. 531-563.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [3] Bauman, Datta, and Iskandar-Datta (1995), “Investment analyst recommendations: A test of the announcement effect and the valuable information effect”, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, Vol. 22, p. 659-670.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [4] Beneish , Messod D. (1991), “Stock price and the dissemination of analysts` recommendations”, Journal of Business, Vol. 64, p. 393-416.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [5] Chan, Louis K., Narasimhan Jegadeesh, and Josef Lakonishok (1996), “Momentum strategy”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 51, p. 1681-1713.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [6] Chan, Siu-Yeung, and Wai-Ming Fong (1996), “Reactions of the Hong Kong stock market to the publication of second-hand analysts` recommendations information”, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, Vol. 23, p. 1121-1139.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [7] Chang, Charles (2003), “Information footholds: Expatriate analysts in an emerging market”, UC-Berkeley working paper, February.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [8] Cooper, Rick A., Theodore E. Day, and Araig M. Lewis (2001), “Following the leader: A study of individual analysts` earnings forecasts”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 61, p. 383-416.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [9] Copeland, Thomas E., and David Mayers (1982), “The Value Line enigma: A case study of performance evaluation issues”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 10, p. 289-321.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [10] Dimson, Elory and Paul Marsh (1984), “An analysis of broker`s and analysts` unpublished forecasts of UK stock returns”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 39, p. 1257-1292.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [11] Huth, William L., and Brian A. Maris (1992), “Large and small firm stock price response to `Heard On The Street ` recommendation”, Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance, Vol. 7, p. 27-47.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [12] Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, and Sheridan Titman (1993), “Returns to buying winners and selling losers: Implications for stock market efficiency”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 48, p. 65-91.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [13] Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, Joonghyuk Kim, Susan D. Krische, and Charles M. C. Lee (2002), “Analyzing the analysts: When do recommendations add value?”, Case Western Reserve University, Cornell University, and University of Illinois working paper, May.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [14] Kim, Sok Tae, Ji-Chai Lin and Myron B. Slovin (1997), “Market structure, informed trading, and analysts` recommendations”, Journal of Financial Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 32, p. 507-524zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [15] Krische, Susan D., and Charles M. C. Lee (2000), “The information content of analyst stock recommendations”, Cornell University and Johnson Graduate School of Management working paper, December.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [16] Lee, C. M. C., and B. Swaminathan (2000), “Price momentum and trading volume”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 55, p. 2017-2070.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [17] Lin, H. W., and M. F. McNichols (1998), “Underwriting relationship, analysts` earnings forecasts and investment recommendation”, Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol. 25, p. 101-127.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [18] Liu, Pu, Stanley D. Smith, and Aznat A. Syed (1990), “Stock price reactions to the Wall Street Journal`s securities recommendations”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 25, p. 399-410.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [19] Michaely, R., and K. Womack (1999), “Conflict of interest and the credibility of underwriter analyst recommendations”, Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 12, p. 653-686.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [20] Seasholes, Mark S. (2000), “Smart foreign traders in emerging markets”, Harvard University working paper, January.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [21] Stickel, Scott E. (1985), “The effect of Value Line investment survey rank changes on common stock price”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 14, p. 121-143.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [22] Womack, Kent L. (1996), “Do brokerage analysts` recommendations have investment value?”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 51, p. 137-167.zh_TW