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題名 台灣證券市場散戶投資人存活研究
作者 彭心玉
貢獻者 周行一
彭心玉
關鍵詞 散戶
存活
台灣證券市場
日期 2005
上傳時間 14-Sep-2009 09:00:39 (UTC+8)
摘要 台灣的證券市場中,散戶投資人佔高達八成的比例,其在市場的參與程度影響證券市場的發展;本研究針對自民國七十九年市場崩盤後,散戶投資人繼續參與市場或離開市場的情況進行長達15年的追蹤分析。
     
     研究發現民國79年2月12日的崩盤跌幅雖然曾高達83%,但是離開市場的比例並不大,高達九成的人在後續的年度仍然繼續進出市場,且其交易次數與平均交易金額都逐漸增強,顯示持續積極參與市場外,也是市場主要的穩定投資人;在分析中可以發現,不論在交易金額或交易次數的分析上,樣本群在市場崩盤後的各波段交易上,反應程度都比整體大盤投資人大。
     
     對存活者、非存活者在崩盤前的交易次數、交易金額分析中,發現存活者為平均交易次數、金額較高者,但是變異數很大,且崩盤後後續交易記錄也顯示存活者群中,存在高交易次數、低單次交易金額與低交易次數、高單次金額兩類,與台灣證券市場散戶實證研究中,周轉率與報酬率呈U型分配,交易次數特別高及特別低的兩群樣本投資人,可能報酬較佳,所以得以存活於市場的情況相呼應。
80% investors in Taiwan Stock Market are individual investors. In that, their participations have great impacts to the stock market prosperity. This research focuses on the market crash which has happened since 1990 and tracks the individual investors’ trading activities of the following fifteen years.
     
      In research we found that, although the market index has decreased 83% since Feb.12, 1990, there are 90% individual investors remained trading in the market. Besides, we found the individual investors who keep trading (the survivor) increase both in their trading frequency and in trading amount which shows the survivors play an important role in the stock market during the following years. In further analysis, we also found the survivors had greater responses to the rises and falls of the stock market than total market individual investors’ average.
     
      When we analyze the survivors’ pre-crash characters, which showed survivors were those who had greater average trading frequency and average trading volume. Besides, there also existed big variances in the survivor group. Both evidences showed there existed survivors who were high trading frequency with low trading volume and those who were low trading frequency with high trading volume. These proved the prior research evidence of individual investors’ character that the return and trading frequency distribute as U shape in Taiwan stock market. Investors in highest trading frequency group and lowest trading frequency group could get better return to survive.
參考文獻 參考文獻:
1. Handa, P., R.A. Schwartz and A. Tiwari, 1998, The Ecology of an Order-Driven Market. The Journal of Portfolio Management Winter, 47-55.
2. Graunt, J., 1676, Natural and Political Observations made upon the Bills of Mortality, Cambridge 1899: Cambridge University Press
3. Audretsch, David B, and Erik E Lehmann, 2005, The Effects of Experience, Ownership, and Knowledge on IPO Survival: Empirical Evidence from Germany, Review of Accounting & Finance4 (4):13-33
4. Jain, Bharat A, and Charles L Martin Jr., 2005, The Association Between Audit Quality and Post-IPO Performance: A Survival Analysis Approach, Review of Accounting & Finance.4 (4):50-75
5. Beatty, R. P., 1989, Auditor reputation and the pricing of initial public offerings, The Accounting Review 64 (4):693-709
6. Laitinen, Erkki K, 2005, Survival Analysis and Financial Distress Prediction: Finnish Evidence, Review of Accounting & Finance 4 (4): 76-90
7. Garnsey, Elizabeth, Erik Stam and Paul Heffernan, 2006, New Firm Growth: Exploring Processes and Paths, Industry and Innovation13 (1): 1-20
8. Söderbom, Måns, Francis Teal and Alan Harding, 2006, The Determinants of Survival among African Manufacturing Firms, Economic Development and Cultural Change54 (3): 533-555
9. Malkiel, Burton G, 1995, Returns from investing in equity mutual funds 1971 to 1991, The Journal of Finance 50 (2): 549
10. Ian Tonks, 2005, Performance Persistence of Pension-Fund Managers, The Journal of Business 78 (5): 1917-1942
11. Kahneman , Daniel, and Amos Tversky, 1979, Prospect theory : An analysis ofdecision under risk, Econometrica 47: 263-91.
12. Kahneman, Daniel ,and Amos Tversky, 1982, Judgment Under Uncertainty :Heuristics And Biases, New York; Cambridge University Press.
13. Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman, 1973, Availability: a heuristic for judging frequency and probability, Cognitive Psychology 5, 207-232.
14. Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman, 1971, Belief in the law of small numbers, Psychological Bulletin 76, 105-110.
15. Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman, 1974, Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Science 185, 1124-1131.
16. Fischhoff, B., P. Slovic, and S. Lichtenstein, 1977, Knowing with uncertainty: the appropriateness of extreme confidence, Journal of Experimental Psychology:Human Perception and Performance 1,288-299.
17. De Bondt, W. F. M., 1993, Betting on trends: Intuitive forecasts of financial risk and Return, International Journal of Forecasting 9, 355-371.
18. De Bondt, W. F. M., 1998, A portrait of the individual investor, European Economic Review 42,831-844.
19. Barber, Brad M., Terrance Odean, and Michal Strahilevitz, 2004, Once Burned, Twice Shy: Naïve Learning, Counterfactuals, and the Repurchase of Stocks Previously Sold, working paper
20. Barber, Brad M., Yi-Tsung Lee, Yu-Jane Liu, and Terrance Odean, 2004, Do individual day traders make money? Evidence from Taiwan, working paper, UC-Davis, Davis, CA.
21. Barber, Brad M., Yi-Tsung Lee, Yu-Jane Liu, and Terrance Odean, 2005, Who Loses from Trade? Evidence from Taiwan, working paper, UC-Davis, Davis, CA.
22. Badrinath, S.G., and Sunil Wahal, 2002, Momentum trading by institutions, Journal of Finance 57, 2449-2278.
23. Gervais, Simon, and Terrance Odean, 1998, Learning to be overconfident, Working paper, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.
24. Thaler, R., and E. J. Johnson, 1990, Gambling with the house money and trying to break even: The effects of prior outcomes on risky choice, Management Science 36,643-660.
25. Barberis, Nicholas, Ming Huang and Tano Santos, 2000, Prospect theory and asset prices, forthcoming Quarterly Journal of Economics.
26. Shiller, R. J., 1984, Stock prices and social dynamics, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity II, 457-98.
27. Shiller, R. J., 1987, Fashions, Fads and Bubbles in financial markets, In Jack Coffee(ed), Knights, Raiders and Targets: The Impact of the Hostile Takeover, Oxford University Press.
28. Grinblatt, Mark, and Matti Keloharju, 2001, What makes investors trade?, Journal of Finance 56, 589-616.
29. Charles M C Lee, and Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2000, Price momentum and trading volume, The Journal of Finance. 55 (5): 2017
30. Odean, Terrance, 1998a, Are investors reluctant to realize their losses?, Journal of Finance 53, 1775–1798.
31. Odean, Terrance, 1998b, Volume, volatility, price, and profit when all traders are above average, Journal of Finance 53, 1887–1934.
32. Odean, Terrance, 1999, Do investors trade too much?, American Economic Review 89, 1279–1298.
33. Kaniel, Ron, Gideon Saar, and Sheridan Titman, 2004, Individual investor sentiment and stock returns, Working paper, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University.
34. Choe, Hyuk, Bong-Chan Kho, and Rene M. Stulz, 1999. “Do foreign investors destabilize stock markets? The Korean experience in 1997” Mimeo, Ohio State University
35. Grinblatt, Mark and Matti Keloharju, 2000, The investment behavior and performance of various investor types: a study of Finland’s unique data set, Journal of Financial Economics, 55, 43-68.
36. Jackson, Andrew, 2003, The aggregate behavior of individual investors, Working paper, London Business School.
37. Ng, Lilian, and Fei Wu, 2005, The Trading Behavior of Institutions and Individuals in Chinese Equity Markets 2005 China International Conference in Finance Kunming, July, 2005.
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理研究所
93357035
94
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093357035
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 周行一zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 彭心玉zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 彭心玉zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2005en_US
dc.date.accessioned 14-Sep-2009 09:00:39 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 14-Sep-2009 09:00:39 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 14-Sep-2009 09:00:39 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0093357035en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/30986-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財務管理研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93357035zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 94zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 台灣的證券市場中,散戶投資人佔高達八成的比例,其在市場的參與程度影響證券市場的發展;本研究針對自民國七十九年市場崩盤後,散戶投資人繼續參與市場或離開市場的情況進行長達15年的追蹤分析。
     
     研究發現民國79年2月12日的崩盤跌幅雖然曾高達83%,但是離開市場的比例並不大,高達九成的人在後續的年度仍然繼續進出市場,且其交易次數與平均交易金額都逐漸增強,顯示持續積極參與市場外,也是市場主要的穩定投資人;在分析中可以發現,不論在交易金額或交易次數的分析上,樣本群在市場崩盤後的各波段交易上,反應程度都比整體大盤投資人大。
     
     對存活者、非存活者在崩盤前的交易次數、交易金額分析中,發現存活者為平均交易次數、金額較高者,但是變異數很大,且崩盤後後續交易記錄也顯示存活者群中,存在高交易次數、低單次交易金額與低交易次數、高單次金額兩類,與台灣證券市場散戶實證研究中,周轉率與報酬率呈U型分配,交易次數特別高及特別低的兩群樣本投資人,可能報酬較佳,所以得以存活於市場的情況相呼應。
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 80% investors in Taiwan Stock Market are individual investors. In that, their participations have great impacts to the stock market prosperity. This research focuses on the market crash which has happened since 1990 and tracks the individual investors’ trading activities of the following fifteen years.
     
      In research we found that, although the market index has decreased 83% since Feb.12, 1990, there are 90% individual investors remained trading in the market. Besides, we found the individual investors who keep trading (the survivor) increase both in their trading frequency and in trading amount which shows the survivors play an important role in the stock market during the following years. In further analysis, we also found the survivors had greater responses to the rises and falls of the stock market than total market individual investors’ average.
     
      When we analyze the survivors’ pre-crash characters, which showed survivors were those who had greater average trading frequency and average trading volume. Besides, there also existed big variances in the survivor group. Both evidences showed there existed survivors who were high trading frequency with low trading volume and those who were low trading frequency with high trading volume. These proved the prior research evidence of individual investors’ character that the return and trading frequency distribute as U shape in Taiwan stock market. Investors in highest trading frequency group and lowest trading frequency group could get better return to survive.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章、續論 1
     第一節、研究動機 1
     第二節、研究目的 2
     第三節、研究架構 3
     第二章、文獻探討 5
     第一節、我國證券集中市場參與者介紹 5
     第二節、存活之文獻回顧 5
      國外文獻 5
      國內文獻 8
     第三節、投資人的投資行為特性 9
      國外文獻 9
      國內文獻 11
     第四節、交易次數的相關文獻 14
      國外文獻 14
      國內文獻 14
     第五節、交易次數與投資人行為 15
      國外文獻 15
      國內文獻 15
     第三章、研究方法 16
      第一節、研究資料及研究期間 16
      第二節、觀察樣本的選擇 16
      第三節、研究方法 17
     第四章、資料分析 19
      第一節、崩盤後各期間樣本群及大盤交易人數 19
      第二節、樣本群及整體市場交易統計比較 20
      交易金額 20
      交易次數 26
      第三節、存活者與非存活者投資期間分析 31
      整體樣本期間分析 31
      存活者之期間分析 32
      第四節、存活者與非存活者崩盤前交易特性分析 33
      崩盤前交易次數 33
      崩盤前交易金額 34
     第五章、結論與建議 36
      第一節、結論 36
      第二節、研究限制 36
      第三節、研究建議 37
     參考文獻 38
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093357035en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 散戶zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 存活zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 台灣證券市場zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 台灣證券市場散戶投資人存活研究zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 參考文獻:zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1. Handa, P., R.A. Schwartz and A. Tiwari, 1998, The Ecology of an Order-Driven Market. The Journal of Portfolio Management Winter, 47-55.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2. Graunt, J., 1676, Natural and Political Observations made upon the Bills of Mortality, Cambridge 1899: Cambridge University Presszh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3. Audretsch, David B, and Erik E Lehmann, 2005, The Effects of Experience, Ownership, and Knowledge on IPO Survival: Empirical Evidence from Germany, Review of Accounting & Finance4 (4):13-33zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4. Jain, Bharat A, and Charles L Martin Jr., 2005, The Association Between Audit Quality and Post-IPO Performance: A Survival Analysis Approach, Review of Accounting & Finance.4 (4):50-75zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5. Beatty, R. P., 1989, Auditor reputation and the pricing of initial public offerings, The Accounting Review 64 (4):693-709zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 6. Laitinen, Erkki K, 2005, Survival Analysis and Financial Distress Prediction: Finnish Evidence, Review of Accounting & Finance 4 (4): 76-90zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 7. Garnsey, Elizabeth, Erik Stam and Paul Heffernan, 2006, New Firm Growth: Exploring Processes and Paths, Industry and Innovation13 (1): 1-20zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 8. Söderbom, Måns, Francis Teal and Alan Harding, 2006, The Determinants of Survival among African Manufacturing Firms, Economic Development and Cultural Change54 (3): 533-555zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 9. Malkiel, Burton G, 1995, Returns from investing in equity mutual funds 1971 to 1991, The Journal of Finance 50 (2): 549zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 10. Ian Tonks, 2005, Performance Persistence of Pension-Fund Managers, The Journal of Business 78 (5): 1917-1942zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 11. Kahneman , Daniel, and Amos Tversky, 1979, Prospect theory : An analysis ofdecision under risk, Econometrica 47: 263-91.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 12. Kahneman, Daniel ,and Amos Tversky, 1982, Judgment Under Uncertainty :Heuristics And Biases, New York; Cambridge University Press.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 13. Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman, 1973, Availability: a heuristic for judging frequency and probability, Cognitive Psychology 5, 207-232.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 14. Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman, 1971, Belief in the law of small numbers, Psychological Bulletin 76, 105-110.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 15. Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman, 1974, Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Science 185, 1124-1131.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 16. Fischhoff, B., P. Slovic, and S. Lichtenstein, 1977, Knowing with uncertainty: the appropriateness of extreme confidence, Journal of Experimental Psychology:Human Perception and Performance 1,288-299.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 17. De Bondt, W. F. M., 1993, Betting on trends: Intuitive forecasts of financial risk and Return, International Journal of Forecasting 9, 355-371.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 18. De Bondt, W. F. M., 1998, A portrait of the individual investor, European Economic Review 42,831-844.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 19. Barber, Brad M., Terrance Odean, and Michal Strahilevitz, 2004, Once Burned, Twice Shy: Naïve Learning, Counterfactuals, and the Repurchase of Stocks Previously Sold, working paperzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 20. Barber, Brad M., Yi-Tsung Lee, Yu-Jane Liu, and Terrance Odean, 2004, Do individual day traders make money? Evidence from Taiwan, working paper, UC-Davis, Davis, CA.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 21. Barber, Brad M., Yi-Tsung Lee, Yu-Jane Liu, and Terrance Odean, 2005, Who Loses from Trade? Evidence from Taiwan, working paper, UC-Davis, Davis, CA.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 22. Badrinath, S.G., and Sunil Wahal, 2002, Momentum trading by institutions, Journal of Finance 57, 2449-2278.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 23. Gervais, Simon, and Terrance Odean, 1998, Learning to be overconfident, Working paper, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 24. Thaler, R., and E. J. Johnson, 1990, Gambling with the house money and trying to break even: The effects of prior outcomes on risky choice, Management Science 36,643-660.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 25. Barberis, Nicholas, Ming Huang and Tano Santos, 2000, Prospect theory and asset prices, forthcoming Quarterly Journal of Economics.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 26. Shiller, R. J., 1984, Stock prices and social dynamics, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity II, 457-98.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 27. Shiller, R. J., 1987, Fashions, Fads and Bubbles in financial markets, In Jack Coffee(ed), Knights, Raiders and Targets: The Impact of the Hostile Takeover, Oxford University Press.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 28. Grinblatt, Mark, and Matti Keloharju, 2001, What makes investors trade?, Journal of Finance 56, 589-616.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 29. Charles M C Lee, and Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2000, Price momentum and trading volume, The Journal of Finance. 55 (5): 2017zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 30. Odean, Terrance, 1998a, Are investors reluctant to realize their losses?, Journal of Finance 53, 1775–1798.zh_TW
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