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題名 CPFR流程下的補貨模型
作者 陳志強
貢獻者 林我聰
陳志強
關鍵詞 協同規劃預測補貨
補貨模型
演化策略法
禁忌搜尋法
CPFR
replenishment model
evolution strategies
tabu search
日期 2007
上傳時間 14-Sep-2009 09:12:54 (UTC+8)
摘要 協同規劃、預測與補貨﹙Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment; CPFR﹚是協同商務中的一個應用實務，主要強調供應鏈上買賣雙方協同合作流程的概念，以提升供應鏈上流程的處理效率。未來企業的競爭將是產品背後整體供應鏈的激烈競爭，能對於不斷變化的市場需求作出有效預測，進而快速反應的企業將脫穎而出。對於庫存與補貨的掌控能力更將是企業決勝的關鍵因素之一。
     CPFR 中的補貨模型是根據銷售預測、訂單預測、存貨策略與供給面資訊來做實際訂單，以作為補貨之用。補貨模式的準確性可以使賣方針對不同的需求來有效分配未來訂單預測的需求量，並降低安全庫存；買方則可根據訂單預測來調整庫存策略與採購數量。
     現今廣用的供應商管理存貨（Vendor Managed Inventory, VMI）並沒有像CPFR加入更多的協同項目與精神，因此比較VMI與CPFR的補貨流程的差異性與優劣性，進而提供企業導入CPFR的補貨流程是相當重要的。
     本研究以補貨階段為主題，除了探討協同補貨模式所需具備的屬性與輸入變數外，更將建構一個整合供應鏈上、下游協同資訊與符合協同訂單預測特性之預測模型，以提升補貨準確度，進而堆砌出整個CPFR 協同補貨模式，並加以與現今企業廣為採用的供應商管理存貨（Vendor Managed Inventory, VMI）的補貨模式進行比較，證明CPFR優於VMI，進而可供欲導入CPFR 流程下協同補貨模式或一般補貨模式的相關人員之參考。
CPFR (Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment) is one of the applications of collaborative business. The stressed concept is the cooperation process of sellers and buyers on the supply chain in order to increase the handling efficiency. In the future, the industries would compete on the whole supply chains behind products—only the industry that is capable of making accurate predictions according to the constantly changing market and reacts immediately has the chance of winning. Being able to control the inventory and supply effectively would be one of the key factors leading to an industry’s success.
     The replenishment model of CPFR is to fill out the order according to the sales prediction, order prediction, inventory strategy, and supply information. The precision of the replenishment model could affect both suppliers and customers. The former can distribute products properly and meet the different demands from the upcoming orders so as to reduce inventory; the latter are able to revise the inventory strategy and amount of order according to the order prediction.
     A few research papers aimed at the replenishment model, though, most still focus on the management issues like the process framework of CPFR and the implementation benefit. Hence, establishing both an information system that coordinates customer demand with suppliers and a collaborative replenishment model that increases the accuracy of predictions is fairly important.
     The phase of replenishment, as the subject of this study, will approach on parameters the collaborative replenishment model needs to input and combine evolution strategies with tabu search to establish a replenishment model under the process of CPFR.
參考文獻 中文部分
1. 石志強，民89，「在延至付款期限下的損耗性存貨模式」，中原大學工業工程研究所碩士論文。
2. 何明璋，民93，「供應商管理庫存模式下最佳之聯合補貨策略」，義守大學工業工程與管理研究所碩士論文。
3. 李志勇，民91，「多廠整合型生產指派與排程系統」，東海大學工業工程與經營資訊研究所碩士論文。
4. 林師壇，民91，「禁忌搜尋法與遺傳演算法混合模式在地下水復育優選問題之應用」，國立中興大學環境工程研究所碩士論文。
5. 林慈傑，民92，「以遺傳演算法求解類運輸問題模式化的多廠訂單分配問題」，國立台灣大學工業工程所，研究所碩士論文。
6. 高敏純，民93，「成衣業全球運籌管理訂單分配決策支援系統之研究」，國立臺北科技大學/商業自動化與管理研究所碩士論文。
7. 張建朝，民91，「二階供應鏈體制下合併補貨問題之研究」，東海大學工業工程與經營資訊研究所碩士論文。
8. 張嘉仁，「進入即時、彈性之「協同商務」時代」，資訊情報，2002。
9. 陳世運，「淺談電子市集發展主流---協同商務」，FIND，2001。
10. 陳建宇，「以基因演算法結合層級分析法求解多廠區訂單分配問題」，國立政治大學資訊管理學所碩士論文，2006。
11. 陳建銘，民92，「多廠區緊急訂單承接評估及跨廠產能規劃探討」，元智大學工業工程與管理研究所碩士論文。
12. 陳寬茂，「CPFR流程下之訂單預測方法」，國立政治大學資訊管理學所碩士論文，2005。
13. 曾煥文，民88，「跨廠訂單分配模式之構建─應用模擬退火演算法」，元智大學工業工程與管理研究所碩士論文。
14. 黃馨儀，民93，「多階存貨系統在逐一補貨策略下之METRIC模式探討」，國立清華大學工業工程與工程管理研究所碩士論文。
15. 黃蘭禛，「CPFR流程下之銷售預測方式-混合預測模型」，國立政治大學資訊管理學所碩士論文，2004。
16. 劉珮伶，民93，「考量產品配送下之多廠區訂單分配問題應用門檻值接受法，元智大學工業工程與管理研究所碩士論文。
17. 魏志強，「合作式商務的經典CPFR－Wal-Mart和Sara Lee示範案例」，資策會電子商務應用推廣中心。
英文部分
1. Aggarwal, S. P. and Jaggi, C. K., “Ordering policy for decaying inventory”, International Journal of Systems Science, Vol. 20, pp. 151-155, 1989.
2. Aggarwal, S. P., “Note on：An order level lot size inventory model for deteriorating items by Y. K. Shah”, AIIE Transactions, Vol. 11, No. 4, pp. 344-346, 1979.
3. Buzacott. J. A.. “Economic order quantities with inflation”, Operational Research Quarterly, Vol. 26, pp. 553-558, 1975.
4. Chan,F.T.S.,Chung,S.H. and Wadhwa,S.“A hybrid genetic algorithm for production and distribution,”Omega（3）2005,pp:345-355
5. Chandra, M. J. and Bahner M. L., “The effects of inflation and time value of money on some inventory systems”, International Journal of Production Research , Vol. 23, No.4 pp. 723-730, 1985.
6. Chung, K. H., “Inventory control and trade credit revisited ”, Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 40, No. 5, pp. 495-498, 1989.
7. Chung, K. J., “Optimal ordering time interval taking account of time value”, Production Planning and Control, Vol. 7, No. 3, pp.264-267, 1996.
8. Cohen, M. A., “Joint pricing and ordering policy for exponentially decaying inventory with know demand”, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, Vol. 24, pp. 257-268, 1977.
9. D. Seifert, “Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment,” Preprint Edition, , pp.29-52, 2002.
10. Daellenbach, H. G., “Inventory control and trade credit”, Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 37, No. 5, pp. 525-528, 1986.
11. Davis, D.J. and Mabert,V.A.“Order Dispatching and Labor Assignment in Cellular Manufacturing,” Decision Science（31:4）2000,pg.754
12. Davis, R. A. and Gaither, N., “Optimal ordering policies under conditions of extended payment privileges”, Management Science, Vol. 31, pp. 499-509, 1985.
13. Ghare, P. M. and Schrader, G. F., “A model for an exponentially decaying inventory”, Journal of Industrial Engineering, Vol.14, pp.238-243, 1963.
14. Glover,F. and Laguna,M. Tabu Search,Kluwer Academic,Lodon,2002
15. Goyal, S. K., “Economic order quantity under conditions of permissible delay in payments ”, Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 36, No. 4, pp. 335-339, 1985.
16. Hax, A. C. and Candea, D., Production and Inventory Management, Prentic-Hall, New Jersey, pp.133-134, 1984.
17. Heng, K. J., Labban, J. and Linn, R. J., “An order-level lot size inventory model for deteriorating items with finite replenishment rate”, Computers and Industrial Engineering , Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 187-197, 1991.
18. isra, R. B., “Optimum production lot-size model for system with deteriorating inventory”, International Journal of Production Research, Vol. 13, No. 5, pp. 495-505, 1975.
19. Jaggi, C. K. and Aggarwal, S. P., “Credit financing in economic ordering policies of deteriorating items” , Internationa Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 34, pp. 151-155, 1994.
20. Jaggi, C. K. and Aggarwal, S. P., “Ordering policies of deteriorating items under permissible delay in payments” , Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 46, pp. 658-662, 1995.
21. Jammal, A. M. M., Sarker, B. R. and Wang, S., “An ordering policies for deteriorating items with allowable shortages and permissible delay in payment” , Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 48, pp. 826-833, 1997.
22. Tersine, R. J., Principles of Inventory and Materials Management, PTR prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, pp.95, 1994.
23. Thomas Bäck, “Evolutionary Algorithms in Theory and Practice: Evolution Strategies, Evolutionary Programming, Genetic Algorithms”, Oxford University Press, New York, 1996.
24. Thomas Back, Frank Hoffmeister, and Hans-Paul Schwefel, “A survey of evolution Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Genetic Algorithms, pp. 2-9, July 1991.
25. Thomas, K., “Collaborative design: what is it?”, Automation in Construction, 9（4）, pp. 409-415, 2000.
26. Voluntary Interindustry Commerce Standards Association（VICS） , “CPFR _Overview ” , May 18,2004
27. Voluntary Interindustry Commerce Standards Association（VICS） , “Distribution Center ReplenishmentCollaboration” , February 2, 2005
28. Voluntary Interindustry Commerce Standards Association（VICS） , “Roadmap to CPFR” ,1999
29. Voluntary Interindustry Commerce Standards Association（VICS） , May 18,2004 , “CPFR _Overview ”
30. Wee, H. M., “A deterministic lot size inventory model for deteriorating items with shortages and a declining market ”, Computers Operations Research, Vol. 22, No. 3, pp. 345-356, 1995.
31. Wee, H. M., “Batch size shipment for made-to-order production”, Chung Yuan Journal, Vol. 23, No.1, pp.99-103, 1995.
32. Wee, H. M., “Economic product lot size for deteriorating items with partial backordering”, Computers and Industrial Engineering, Vol. 24, No. 3, pp.449-458, 1992.
33. Wee, H. M., “Join pricing and replenishment policy for deteriorating inventory with declining market”, International journal of production economics, Vol. 40, pp.163-171, 1995.
34. Wee, H. M., “Perishable commodities inventory policy with partial backordering”, Chung Yuan Journal, Vol. 12, pp.199-198, 1992.
35. Wheelwright, S.C. and Makridakis, S. , “Forecasting Methods for Management”, New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc, 1973.
36. Wu,S.D. and Golbasi H. ”Multi-Item,Multi-Facility Supply Chain Planning : Models, Complexities, and Algorithms,” Computational Optimization and Applications（28）2004,pp.325-356
37. Y. Aviv, ”The Effect of Collaborative Forecasting on Supply Chain Performance,” Management Science, Vol.47, No.10, pp.1226-1242, 2001.
38. Zaid, T., Balkhi and Benkherouf, L., “On the optimal replenishment schedule for an inventory system with deterioratingitems and time-varying demand and production rates ”, Computers and Industrial Engineering , Vol. 30, No. 4, pp. 823-829, 1996.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
資訊管理研究所
93356008
96
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093356008
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林我聰zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳志強zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 陳志強zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2007en_US
dc.date.accessioned 14-Sep-2009 09:12:54 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 14-Sep-2009 09:12:54 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 14-Sep-2009 09:12:54 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0093356008en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/31079-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 資訊管理研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93356008zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 96zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 協同規劃、預測與補貨﹙Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment; CPFR﹚是協同商務中的一個應用實務，主要強調供應鏈上買賣雙方協同合作流程的概念，以提升供應鏈上流程的處理效率。未來企業的競爭將是產品背後整體供應鏈的激烈競爭，能對於不斷變化的市場需求作出有效預測，進而快速反應的企業將脫穎而出。對於庫存與補貨的掌控能力更將是企業決勝的關鍵因素之一。
     CPFR 中的補貨模型是根據銷售預測、訂單預測、存貨策略與供給面資訊來做實際訂單，以作為補貨之用。補貨模式的準確性可以使賣方針對不同的需求來有效分配未來訂單預測的需求量，並降低安全庫存；買方則可根據訂單預測來調整庫存策略與採購數量。
     現今廣用的供應商管理存貨（Vendor Managed Inventory, VMI）並沒有像CPFR加入更多的協同項目與精神，因此比較VMI與CPFR的補貨流程的差異性與優劣性，進而提供企業導入CPFR的補貨流程是相當重要的。
     本研究以補貨階段為主題，除了探討協同補貨模式所需具備的屬性與輸入變數外，更將建構一個整合供應鏈上、下游協同資訊與符合協同訂單預測特性之預測模型，以提升補貨準確度，進而堆砌出整個CPFR 協同補貨模式，並加以與現今企業廣為採用的供應商管理存貨（Vendor Managed Inventory, VMI）的補貨模式進行比較，證明CPFR優於VMI，進而可供欲導入CPFR 流程下協同補貨模式或一般補貨模式的相關人員之參考。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) CPFR (Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment) is one of the applications of collaborative business. The stressed concept is the cooperation process of sellers and buyers on the supply chain in order to increase the handling efficiency. In the future, the industries would compete on the whole supply chains behind products—only the industry that is capable of making accurate predictions according to the constantly changing market and reacts immediately has the chance of winning. Being able to control the inventory and supply effectively would be one of the key factors leading to an industry’s success.
     The replenishment model of CPFR is to fill out the order according to the sales prediction, order prediction, inventory strategy, and supply information. The precision of the replenishment model could affect both suppliers and customers. The former can distribute products properly and meet the different demands from the upcoming orders so as to reduce inventory; the latter are able to revise the inventory strategy and amount of order according to the order prediction.
     A few research papers aimed at the replenishment model, though, most still focus on the management issues like the process framework of CPFR and the implementation benefit. Hence, establishing both an information system that coordinates customer demand with suppliers and a collaborative replenishment model that increases the accuracy of predictions is fairly important.
     The phase of replenishment, as the subject of this study, will approach on parameters the collaborative replenishment model needs to input and combine evolution strategies with tabu search to establish a replenishment model under the process of CPFR.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 致謝 ................................................................ .... ................. Ⅰ
     中文摘要 ................................................................. ...............Ⅱ
     英文摘要. ................................................................. ....... .......Ⅲ
     目錄 .................................................................... ....... ... ...... Ⅳ
     圖目錄 ............................................................... ....... ... ...... Ⅶ
     表目錄 ............................................................... ....... ... ...... Ⅸ
     
     第一章 緒論....................................................................... ...... 1
     1.1 研究背景........................................................................................................1
     1.2 研究動機........................................................................................................2
     1.3 研究目的........................................................................................................2
     1.4 研究範圍........................................................................................................3
     1.5 研究流程........................................................................................................3
     第二章 文獻探討..............................................….................... 5
     2.1 供應鏈管理............................................................ ..........................................5
     2.2 供應鏈管理存貨模式................................... ...................................................6
     2.3 供應商管理存貨.............. .............. .................................................................9
     2.4 協同規劃、預測與補貨.................................................... ..............................14
     2.5 最佳化問題中對於限制式之處理............................................................ ....18
     2.6 演算法的探討........................................................................................ ........21
     2.6.1 啟發式演算法比較.............................................. .................................21
     2.6.2 禁忌搜尋法介紹...................................................................................23
     2.6.3 基因演算法介紹...................................................................................26
     2.7 模擬............................................................ ............. ...................................30
     第三章 研究方法.................................................................... 33
     3.1 研究步驟與流程............................................................................................34
     3.2 補貨模型架構與內容............................................ ......... .............................36
     3.2.1 研究限制與架設....................................... ............................ ..............36
     3.2.2 績效決策目標之選擇............ .......................... ...................................36
     3.2.3 模型限制............................................................ ..................................37
     3.2.4 模型之輸出入.................................................................. ....................37
     3.2.5 數學模型建立............................... .................... .. .. ............................38
     3.3 供應商管理存貨補貨流程與模式架構......... ............................... ..............42
     3.4 協同規劃、預測與補貨.的補貨流程與模式架構.......................................45
     3.5 實驗流程計................... ........................................ ................... ...................49
     3.5.1 模擬情境設計............................... ................. ..... ...............................49
     3.5.1 實驗組別與資料量..................... .......... ..............................................52
     第四章 模式分析.................................................................... 53
     4.1 參數設定......... ....... ............. ............. ..................... ....................................53
     4.2 模擬架構......... ..... ....... ....................... ....... ................................................56
     4.2.1 設定模擬次數............................... ........................ ..... ........................57
     4.2.2 系統情境變數............................... ................... ...................................58
     4.3 實驗模擬結果......... ............... ...................... ...................... ........................58
     4.4 實驗模擬結果分析......... .................... .... .................. .... ............................61
     4.4.1 供應商管理存貨模式下之總成本差異.................. ............... ............61\\
     4.4.2 協同規劃、預測與補貨流程下之總成本差異............ .... .. ..... ........62
     4.4.3 t檢定............ .... . ..... .... .. .... ..... .... .. .... ..... .. .... ..... .... .. ..... ...........63
     4.5 小結......... ............. .... .......................... .................... .... ..............................65
     第五章 結論與建議.................... ............ .............................. 67
     5.1 結論......... ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. .........................67
     5.2 後續研究方向......... ................ ....................... ....................... ....................68
     參考文獻.................... ............. ............................................... 69
     
     
     
     
     圖目錄
     圖1-1研究流程圖.. ............. ...... .. ............. ............. ..................... .........................4
     圖2-1 零售商-供應商 關係權力架構圖............. ............. ............ ............. ............9
     圖2-2 VMI 每日例行工作流程............. ............. ............ ............. ............. ...........12
     圖2-3 CPFR 九大步驟圖（VICS, 1998）........... .... ............. ............ ...... ............16
     圖2-4 CPFR模式（VICS, 2005）............. ............. ............ ............. ............. ........17
     圖2-5 供應鏈補貨方法 ............. ............. ............ ....... ............... ............. ............18
     圖2-6 求解空間示意圖 ............ ............. ..................19
     圖2-7 禁忌搜尋法流程圖................. ............. ............24
     圗2-8 演化策略法之簡化流程圖............. ............. ............ ............. ............. .........28
     圖3-1 研究步驟............. ............. ............ ............. ............. ............ ............. .........35
     圖3-2 VMI補貨流程圖............. ............. ............ ............. ............. .......................43
     圖3-3 VMI補貨模式架構流程圖............. ............. ..... ......... ............. ..................44
     圖3-4 CPFR補貨流程圖............. ............. ........ ...... ............. ............. ..................47
     圖3-5 CPFR補貨模式架構流程圖............. ............. .. ............ ............. ................48
     圖3-6實驗組合與資料量 ............. ............. ............ ............. ................... ............52
     圖4-1 模擬次數之標準差 ............. ............. ............ ............. ............. .... ............57
     圖4-2 CPFR與VMI總成本差異............. ............. ............ .. ............ ............. .......64
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     表目錄
     表2-1 四個主要RSP策略比較表............. ............. ............ ............. ............. ............7
     表2-2 各學者對VMI的定義............. ............. ............ ....... ............. ............. ...........10
     表2-3 限制式處理比較表...... ........... ............. ............20
     表2- 4 啟發式演算法比較表............. ............. ..............21
     表2- 5 名詞解釋表............. ............. .......... ............22
     表2-6 演化策略法與基因演算法之比較表............. ............. ............ ............. .......30
     表3-1 模型輸入表............. ............. ............ ...................... ............. ........... ............38
     表3-2 模型輸出表 ............. ............. ............ ............. ............. ............ ............. ....38
     表3-3 模型變數定義表............. ............. ............ ............ ............. ............. ............39
     表3-4 模型說明表............. ............. ............ .................... ............. ............. ............41
     表3-5實驗情境表............. ............. ............ ............. .................... ............. ............51
     表4-1 產品運輸成本............. ............. ............ ............. ................ ............. ............53
     表4-2 工廠產能上限............. ............. ............ ............. ................ ............. ............54
     表4-3 各產品生產所消耗的時間............. ............. ............ ............. .......................54
     表4-4 各產品種類整備成本............. ............. ............ ............. ............. .................55
     表4-5 各產品延遲成本 ............. ............. ............ ............. ............. .......... ............55
     表4-6 決策變數水準............. ............. ............ ............. ............. .. ............. ............56
     表4-7 GA與LINGO比較............. ............. ............ ............. ........ ................ ............57
     表4-8 供應商管理存貨（VMI）模式補貨模擬結果........ ........... ........ ........... ....59
     表4-9 協同規劃、預測與補貨（CPFR）流程補貨模擬結果 ........ ........... .......60
     表4-10 變數與績效指標代號 ........ ........... ........ ........... ........ ........... ........ .......61
     表4-11 VMI決策變數之總成本變異數分析........ ........... ........ ........... ........ ..........62
     表4- 12 CPFR決策變數之總成本變異數分析 ........ ........... ........ ........... ........ ...62
     表4-13 CPFR與VMI實驗模擬結果........ ........... ........ ........... ........ ........... ........ ...63
     表4-14 CPFR與VMI實驗模擬結果驗證........ ........... ........ ........... ........ ................65		zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093356008en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 協同規劃預測補貨zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 補貨模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 演化策略法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 禁忌搜尋法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) CPFRen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) replenishment modelen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) evolution strategiesen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) tabu searchen_US
dc.title (題名) CPFR流程下的補貨模型zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
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