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題名 金融業區域性併購的影響因素及波動特性
作者 林美榕
貢獻者 沈中華
林美榕
關鍵詞 併購
金融風暴
共同波動
馬可夫轉換
M&A
Crisis
co-movement
Markov Switching
日期 2007
上傳時間 14-Sep-2009 09:36:06 (UTC+8)
摘要 在全球企業自由化及國際化的過程,金融機構的併購行為也變成大眾關注的議題,本論文第一部份,以亞洲的金融業為樣本,並且考量金融風暴對金融業併購的影響,實證結果發現,本文的5個併購假說在大部份的情況下,都被支持,而且金融風暴發生,的確可能改變跨國購併決策和影響因素之間的關係。其中,訊息成本假說中的語言及宗教二個代理變數,在金融風暴之後,他們對跨國併購決策都有較大且較顯著的影響力。第二部份,我們先探討OECD國家併購行為是否存在共同波動特性,實證結果支持 OECD 國家的購併活動具有共同波動的特性;此外,由狀態存續機率估計值發現樣本國停留在特定購併狀態的持續期間相當長,表示只要這些國家一起處於購併高峰期,則此共同購併高峰期會持續一段期間。相反的,若沒有發生共同購併高峰期,則在下一個時點出現共同購併高峰期的可能性也不高。從另一個角度解釋,亦即 OECD 國家購併潮的共同波動行為具有「長幅擺盪」(long swing) 的特質。最後,我們進一步考量歐盟金融業的併購活動和國家經濟成長率及股價報酬率二個要素的關係。實證結果發現在併購高峰期之下,不論歐盟金融業是處於併購交易的主併方或是被併方,股價報酬率都對併購活動皆具有正向影響;然而,國家的經濟成長率則會隨著歐盟金融業所處的併購主體而改變。此外,歐盟金融業的併購的共同波浪潮行為也具有「長幅擺盪」的特質。
參考文獻 沈中華 (1993),「台灣遠期美元外匯市場效率性之再檢定—兩狀態Markov 模型的應用」, 經濟論文, 第 21 卷第 1 期, 87-115。
沈中華 (1998) ,「金融風暴後匯率制度與貨幣政策中間目標的抉擇」,金融研訓季刊,7月,62-68。
沈中華 (2004),啟動二次金融改革,行政院經濟建設委員會出版。
沈中華 (2005) ,「銀行評比: 推估品質一致的盈餘」,金融風險管理季刊,第1卷第3期,89-105。
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描述 博士
國立政治大學
金融研究所
92352507
96
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0923525071
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 沈中華zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林美榕zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 林美榕zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2007en_US
dc.date.accessioned 14-Sep-2009 09:36:06 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 14-Sep-2009 09:36:06 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 14-Sep-2009 09:36:06 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0923525071en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/31246-
dc.description (描述) 博士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 金融研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 92352507zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 96zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 在全球企業自由化及國際化的過程,金融機構的併購行為也變成大眾關注的議題,本論文第一部份,以亞洲的金融業為樣本,並且考量金融風暴對金融業併購的影響,實證結果發現,本文的5個併購假說在大部份的情況下,都被支持,而且金融風暴發生,的確可能改變跨國購併決策和影響因素之間的關係。其中,訊息成本假說中的語言及宗教二個代理變數,在金融風暴之後,他們對跨國併購決策都有較大且較顯著的影響力。第二部份,我們先探討OECD國家併購行為是否存在共同波動特性,實證結果支持 OECD 國家的購併活動具有共同波動的特性;此外,由狀態存續機率估計值發現樣本國停留在特定購併狀態的持續期間相當長,表示只要這些國家一起處於購併高峰期,則此共同購併高峰期會持續一段期間。相反的,若沒有發生共同購併高峰期,則在下一個時點出現共同購併高峰期的可能性也不高。從另一個角度解釋,亦即 OECD 國家購併潮的共同波動行為具有「長幅擺盪」(long swing) 的特質。最後,我們進一步考量歐盟金融業的併購活動和國家經濟成長率及股價報酬率二個要素的關係。實證結果發現在併購高峰期之下,不論歐盟金融業是處於併購交易的主併方或是被併方,股價報酬率都對併購活動皆具有正向影響;然而,國家的經濟成長率則會隨著歐盟金融業所處的併購主體而改變。此外,歐盟金融業的併購的共同波浪潮行為也具有「長幅擺盪」的特質。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
     
     第二章 亞洲金融機構的跨國併購的影響因素 3
     第一節 前言 3
     第二節 五個跨國併購假說 7
     第三節 經濟模型 13
     第四節 資料來源與敘述性統計量 14
     第五節 實證結果 17
     第六節 結論 29
     
     第三章 購併行為在 OECD 國家是否存在共同波浪現象?—馬可夫轉換追蹤資料模型的應用 43
     第一節 前言 43
     第二節 馬可夫轉換追蹤資料模型 47
     第三節 資料說明 51
     第四節 實證結果 52
     第五節 結論 58
     
     第四章 歐盟金融業併購活動和經濟成長率及股價報酬率的關係 70
     第一節 前言 70
     第二節 馬可夫轉換追蹤資料模型 76
     第三節 資料說明 79
     第四節 實證結果 81
     第五節 結論 88
     
     第五章 總結 101
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0923525071en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 併購zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 金融風暴zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 共同波動zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 馬可夫轉換zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) M&Aen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Crisisen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) co-movementen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Markov Switchingen_US
dc.title (題名) 金融業區域性併購的影響因素及波動特性zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 沈中華 (1993),「台灣遠期美元外匯市場效率性之再檢定—兩狀態Markov 模型的應用」, 經濟論文, 第 21 卷第 1 期, 87-115。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 沈中華 (1998) ,「金融風暴後匯率制度與貨幣政策中間目標的抉擇」,金融研訓季刊,7月,62-68。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 沈中華 (2004),啟動二次金融改革,行政院經濟建設委員會出版。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 沈中華 (2005) ,「銀行評比: 推估品質一致的盈餘」,金融風險管理季刊,第1卷第3期,89-105。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 沈中華 (2007),金融市場—全球觀點,新陸書局。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ahearne, A., Fernald, J., Loungani, P., and Schindler, J. (2003), China and emerging Asia:Comrades or competitors? International finance discussion Paper, No. 789.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Altunbas, Y., and Marques D. (2004), Mergers and acquisitions and bank performance in Europe: the role of strategic similarities, Working Paper.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Artis, M.J. and Zhang W. (1999), Further evidence on the international business cycle and the ERM: is there a European business cycle? Oxford Economic Papers 51(1), 120-132.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Asea, P. K. and Blomberg B. (1998), Lending cycles, Journal of Econometrics, 83, 89-128.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Audrestsch, D. B. (1989), The determinants of conglomerate mergers. American Economist, 33, 52-60.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Barealey, R. A. and Kaplanis E. C. (1996), The determination of foreign banking location. Journal of International Money and Finance, 15, 577-597.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Barth, J., Caprio G., and Levine R. (2000). Bank regulation and supervision: what works and what doesn`t. World Bank, Washington DC.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Berger, A. N., Rosen R. J. and Udell G. F. (2001), The effect of market size structure on competition: the case of small business lending, FRB Chicago Working Paper.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Betancourt, M. C., Pablo E. and Pileggi V. (2006), The determinants of cross-border M&A transactions in Latin America. Working paperzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Brealey, R. and Kaplanis E. (1996), The determination of foreign banking location. Journal of Internatioal Money and Finance, 15(4), 577-597.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Buch, C. M. and Delong G. L. (2004), Cross-border bank mergers: what lures the rare animal? Journal of Banking and Finance, 28, 2077-2102.zh_TW
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