| dc.contributor.advisor | 沈中華 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 林美榕 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | 林美榕 | zh_TW |
| dc.date (日期) | 2007 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 14-Sep-2009 09:36:06 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 14-Sep-2009 09:36:06 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 14-Sep-2009 09:36:06 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | G0923525071 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/31246 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 博士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 金融研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 92352507 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 96 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 在全球企業自由化及國際化的過程，金融機構的併購行為也變成大眾關注的議題，本論文第一部份，以亞洲的金融業為樣本，並且考量金融風暴對金融業併購的影響，實證結果發現，本文的5個併購假說在大部份的情況下，都被支持，而且金融風暴發生，的確可能改變跨國購併決策和影響因素之間的關係。其中，訊息成本假說中的語言及宗教二個代理變數，在金融風暴之後，他們對跨國併購決策都有較大且較顯著的影響力。第二部份，我們先探討OECD國家併購行為是否存在共同波動特性，實證結果支持 OECD 國家的購併活動具有共同波動的特性；此外，由狀態存續機率估計值發現樣本國停留在特定購併狀態的持續期間相當長，表示只要這些國家一起處於購併高峰期，則此共同購併高峰期會持續一段期間。相反的，若沒有發生共同購併高峰期，則在下一個時點出現共同購併高峰期的可能性也不高。從另一個角度解釋，亦即 OECD 國家購併潮的共同波動行為具有「長幅擺盪」(long swing) 的特質。最後，我們進一步考量歐盟金融業的併購活動和國家經濟成長率及股價報酬率二個要素的關係。實證結果發現在併購高峰期之下，不論歐盟金融業是處於併購交易的主併方或是被併方，股價報酬率都對併購活動皆具有正向影響；然而，國家的經濟成長率則會隨著歐盟金融業所處的併購主體而改變。此外，歐盟金融業的併購的共同波浪潮行為也具有「長幅擺盪」的特質。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 緒論 1 第二章 亞洲金融機構的跨國併購的影響因素 3 第一節 前言 3 第二節 五個跨國併購假說 7 第三節 經濟模型 13 第四節 資料來源與敘述性統計量 14 第五節 實證結果 17 第六節 結論 29 第三章 購併行為在 OECD 國家是否存在共同波浪現象?—馬可夫轉換追蹤資料模型的應用 43 第一節 前言 43 第二節 馬可夫轉換追蹤資料模型 47 第三節 資料說明 51 第四節 實證結果 52 第五節 結論 58 第四章 歐盟金融業併購活動和經濟成長率及股價報酬率的關係 70 第一節 前言 70 第二節 馬可夫轉換追蹤資料模型 76 第三節 資料說明 79 第四節 實證結果 81 第五節 結論 88 第五章 總結 101 | zh_TW |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0923525071 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 併購 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 金融風暴 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 共同波動 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 馬可夫轉換 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | M&A | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Crisis | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | co-movement | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Markov Switching | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | 金融業區域性併購的影響因素及波動特性 | zh_TW |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 沈中華 (1993)，「台灣遠期美元外匯市場效率性之再檢定—兩狀態Markov 模型的應用」， 經濟論文， 第 21 卷第 1 期， 87－115。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 沈中華 (1998) ，「金融風暴後匯率制度與貨幣政策中間目標的抉擇」，金融研訓季刊，7月，62－68。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 沈中華 (2004)，啟動二次金融改革，行政院經濟建設委員會出版。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 沈中華 (2005) ，「銀行評比: 推估品質一致的盈餘」，金融風險管理季刊，第1卷第3期，89－105。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 沈中華 (2007)，金融市場—全球觀點，新陸書局。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Ahearne, A., Fernald, J., Loungani, P., and Schindler, J. (2003), China and emerging Asia：Comrades or competitors? International finance discussion Paper, No. 789. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Altunbas, Y., and Marques D. (2004), Mergers and acquisitions and bank performance in Europe: the role of strategic similarities, Working Paper. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Artis, M.J. and Zhang W. (1999), Further evidence on the international business cycle and the ERM: is there a European business cycle? Oxford Economic Papers 51(1), 120－132. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Asea, P. K. and Blomberg B. (1998), Lending cycles, Journal of Econometrics, 83, 89－128. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Audrestsch, D. B. (1989), The determinants of conglomerate mergers. American Economist, 33, 52－60. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Barealey, R. A. and Kaplanis E. C. (1996), The determination of foreign banking location. Journal of International Money and Finance, 15, 577－597. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Barth, J., Caprio G., and Levine R. (2000). Bank regulation and supervision: what works and what doesn`t. World Bank, Washington DC. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Berger, A. N., Rosen R. J. and Udell G. F. (2001), The effect of market size structure on competition: the case of small business lending, FRB Chicago Working Paper. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Betancourt, M. C., Pablo E. and Pileggi V. (2006), The determinants of cross－border M&A transactions in Latin America. Working paper | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Brealey, R. and Kaplanis E. (1996), The determination of foreign banking location. Journal of Internatioal Money and Finance, 15(4), 577－597. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Buch, C. M. and Delong G. L. (2004), Cross-border bank mergers: what lures the rare animal? Journal of Banking and Finance, 28, 2077－2102. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Campa, Jose M. and Hernando I. (2006), The reaction by industry insiders to M&As in the European financial industry, IESE Research Papers D/689, IESE Business School. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Chauvet M. (1998), An econometric characterizsation of business cycle dynamics with factor structure and regime switching, International Economic Review,39, 969－996 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Chen, S. W. and Shen C. H. (2005), When wall street conflicts with main street-the divergent movements of Taiwan`s leading indicators. International Journal of Forecasting, 22, 317－339. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Chen , S. W. and Shen C. H. (2006a), Can the identification puzzle of Taiwan`s turning points after 1990 be solved?, Economic Modelling, 23(1), 174－195. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Chen , S. W. and Shen C. H. (2006b), When wall street conflicts with main street－The divergent movements of Taiwan`s leading indicators. International Journal of Forecasting, 22, 317—339. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Chen , S. W. and Shen C. H. (2006c), Is there a duration dependence in Taiwan`s business cycles?, International Economic Journal. 20(1), 109－127. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Chen , S. W. and Shen C. H. (2006d), Evidence of the duration－dependence from the stock markets in the pacific rim economies, Applied Economics. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Chen, S. W. (2007a), Measuring business cycle turning points in Japan with the Markov switching panel model, Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 76(4), 236－270. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Chen, S. W. (2007b), Using regional cycles to measure national business cycles in the US with the Markov switching panel model, Economics Bulletin, 3(46), 1－12. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Chen, S. W. (2008), Identifying U.S. turning points revisited: the panel model with the regime switching approach, Applied Economics Letters, forthcoming. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Choi, S.R., Park, D. and Tschoegl, A.E. (2002), Banks and the world`s major banking centers, Working Paper. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Clarke, G., R. Cull, M. Peria and Sanchez S. (2001), Foreign bank entry: experience, implications for developing countries, and agenda for future research. World Bank Policy Research Paper, 2698. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Dempster, A. P., Laird, N.M. and Rubin, D. B. (1977), Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM algorithm, Journal of The Royal Statistical Society Series, 28, 5－18. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Dunning, J. (1998), Location and the multinational enterprise: A neglected factor? Journal of International Business Studies, 19: 45－66. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Durland, J. M. and McCurdy, T. H. (1994), Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of U.S. GNP growth, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 12, 279－288 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Engel, C. and Hamilton, J. D. (1990), Long swings in the dollar: Are they in the data and do markets know it?, American Economic Review, 80, 687－713 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Fecher, F. and Pestieau P., (1993), Efficiency and competition in O.E.C.D. financial services, in (Fried, Harold O., C. A. Knox Lovell and Shelton S. Schmidt, ed.), The measurement of productive efficiency: Techniques and applications, Oxford University Press, New York, pp 374－385. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Filardo, A. J. (1994), Business-Cycle phases and their transitional dynamics, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 12, 299－308. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Focarelli, D. and Pozzolo A. F. (2000), The determinants of cross-border bank shareholdings: an analysis with bank-level data from OECD countries, Bank of Italy, Working Paper, 9/03. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Focarelli, D. and Pozzolo A. F. (2001), The patterns of cross-boarder bank mergers and shareholdings in OECD countries. Journal of Banking and Finance, 25, 2305－2337. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Focarelli, D. and Pozzolo A. F. (2003), Where do banks expand abroad? An empirical analysis. Working Paper. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Frey, R. and Hussinger K. (2006), Technological Reorganization and Entrance into New Markets Through the Fifth Merger Wave in Europe. Working Paper. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Galindo, A., Micco A., and Sierra C. (2002), Better the devil that you know : Evidence on entry costs faced by foreign banks, IADV working paper 477. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Garcia, R. (1998), Asymptotic null distribution of the likelihood ratio test in Markov- Switching model, International Economic Review, 39, 763－88. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Ghysels, E. (1994), On the periodic structure of the business cycle, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 12, 289－98. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Giovanni, J. (2002), What drives capital flows? The case of cross-border M&A activity and financial deepening. eScholarship Repository, University of California. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Golbe, D. and White, L. (1993), Catch a wave: The time series behavior of mergers, Review of Economics and Statistics, 75, 493－499. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Gort, M. (1969), An economic disturbance theory of mergers, Quarterly Journal of Economics, LXXXIII, 624－42. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Hamilton, J. D. (1989), A new approach to the economic Aanalysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle, Econometrica, 57, 357–384. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Hamilton, J. D. (1990), Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime, Journal of Econometrics, 45, 39－70. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Hansen, B. E. (1992), The likelihood ratio test under nonstandard conditions：Testing the Markov switching model of GNP, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 7, S61－S82. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Hansen, B. E. (1996), Erratum：The likelihood ratio test under nonstandard conditions: Testing the Markov switching model of GNP, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 195－198 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Kaminski, G. and Reinhard C. M. (2001), Bank lending and contagion: Evidence from the Asian crisis. In T.Ito and A. Krueger, eds. Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences. Chicago：University of Chicago Press for the NBER. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Kaufmann, D., Kraay A. and Zoido-Lobatón P. (2002), Governance matters II: Updated governance indicators for 2000-01. Working Paper No. 2772, February. World Bank Policy Research Department. Washington, DC. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Kim, W., and Wei S. J. (1999), Foreign portfolio investors before and during a crisis, NBER working paper 6968. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | La Porta, R., F. Lopez-de-Silanes, A.Shleifer, and Vishny R. (1997), Legal determinants of external finance. Journal of Finance, 52, 1131－1150. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes F., Shleifer A., and Vishny R. (1998), Law and finance. Journal of Political Economy, 106, 1113－1155. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Lahiri, K. and Wang, J. G. (1994), Predicting cyclical turning points with leading index in a markov switching model, Journal of Forecasting, 13, 24－63. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Lardy, N. (2001), Foreign financial firms in Asia, in Litan, R., Masson, P. and Pomerleano, M. (eds.), Open Doors: Foreign Participation in Financial Systems in Developed Countries, Brookings Institution Press. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Layton, A. P. (1998), A further test of the influence of leading indicators on the probability of US business cycle phase shifts, International Journal of Forecasting, 14, 63－70. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Martin, X., Swaminathan, A. and Mitchell, W. (1998), Organizational evolution in the interorganizational environment：incentives and constraints on international expansion strategy. Adm. Sci. Q. 43, 566－601. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Meese, R. A. and Rogoff, K. (1983), Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies: Do they fit out of sample?, Journal of International Economics, 14, 3－24. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Megginson, W. (2005), The economics of bank privatization, Journal of Banking and Finance, 29, 1931－1980. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Nakamura (2004), To merge and acquire when the times are good? The influence of macro factors on the Japanese M&A pattern, Working paper No 197. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Nelson, R. R. (1959), The economics of invention: A survey of the literature, Journal of Business, 32, 101－27. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Nieh, C. C. (2004), On the dynamic relationships with structural breaks among US’s M&A and macroeconomic fundamentals. Management Review, 23, 91－116. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Pelagatti, M. (2001), Gibbs sampling for a duration dependent Ｍarkov switching model with an application to the U.S. business cycle, Working Paper. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Perron, P. (1989), The great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis, Econometrica, 57, 1361－1401. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Portes, R. and Rey H. (2001), The determinants of cross-border equity flows, NBER. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Post, A. M. (1994), Anatomy of a merger, London: Prentice Hall. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Resende, M. (1999), Wave behavior of mergers and acquisitions in the U.K.: A sectoral study, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 85－94. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Rossi, S. and Volpin P. F. (2004), Cross-country determinants of mergers and acquisitions. Journal of Financial Economics, 74, 277－304. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Sabi, M. (1988), An application of the theory of foreign direct investment to multinational banking in LDCs, Journal of International Business Studies, 433－447. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Scherer, F. M. and Ross, D. (1990), Industrial Market Structure and Economic Performance, 3rd edition, Boston: Houghton Mifflin,153－159 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Shen, C. H. and Chen S. W. (2004), Long swing in Appreciation and Short Swing in Depreciation and Does the Market not Know it—the Case of Taiwan. International Economic Journal, 18(2), 195－213. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Shen, C. H., Chen S. W. and Lin M. R. (2007), Common wave behavior for mergers and acquisitions in OECD countries？A unique analysis using new Markov Switching panel model approach. Working paper. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Shen, C. H. and Chih H. L. (2005), Investor protection, prospect theory, and earnings management: An international comparison of the banking industry. Journal of Banking and Finance, 29, 2675－2697. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Shen, C. H. and Chang Y. H. (2005), Do regulations affect banking performance? government governance may matter. Contemporary Economic Policy, 24 (1), 92－105. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Shen, C. H. and Chou H. H. (2008), Foreign banks in Asian markets: The determinants of location choice. working paper. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Shen, C. H. and Lin M. R. (2007), The determinants of cross-border merger and acquisition activity in the banking sector in Asia –Did the Asian financial crisis change them?, NBER－EASE, 18. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Shen, C. H. and Lee C. C. (2005), Same financial development yet different economic growth—and why? Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 38, 1907—1944 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Shih, S. H. M. (2003), An investigation into the use of mergers as a solution for the Asian banking sector crisis. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 43, 31－49. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Shimizu, K., Hitt, M., Vaidyanath, D., Pisano, V. (2004), Theoretical foundations of cross-border mergers and acquisitions: a review of current research and recommendations for the future, Journal of International Management, 10, 307－353. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Shleifer A. and Vishny R. (2003), Stock market driven acquisitions, Journal of Financial Economics, 70(3), 295－311. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Shughart, W. F. and Tollison, R. D. (1984), The random character of mergers, RAND Journal of Economics, 15, 500－509. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Stock, J. and Watson, M. (1989), New indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators, NBER Macroeconomic Annual, 351－394. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Stock, J. and Watson, M. (1991), A probability model of the coincident economic indicators in K. Lahiri and Moore, eds., Leading Economic Indicators, Cambridge University Press. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Tinbergen, J. (1962), Shaping the world economy－Suggestions for an international economic policy. The Twentieth Century Fund. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Town, R. J. (1992), Merger waves and the structure of merger and acquisition time－series, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 7, 83－100. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Vasconcellos, G. M. and Kish R. J. (1998), Cross-border mergers and acquisitions: the European-US experience. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 8, 431－450. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Wei, S. J. (2000), Corruption in economic transition and development greaser or sand? Working paper. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Wei, S. J. and Wu, Y. (2001), Negative alchemy? Corruption, composition of capital flows, and currency crises, NBER Working Paper No. 8187. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Williams, B. (2002), The defensive expansion approach to multinational banking : Evidence to date. Financial Markets Institutions & Instruments, 11(2), 127－203. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Yagil, J. (1996), Merger and macro－economic factors, Review of Financial Economics, 5(2), 181－190. | zh_TW |
