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題名 利差交易策略之實證結果
作者 李乃君
貢獻者 康榮寶
李乃君
關鍵詞 利差交易
套利
價差收益
匯率
風險指標
carry trade
capital gain
exchange rate
risk indicator
日期 2007
上傳時間 14-Sep-2009 09:41:49 (UTC+8)
摘要 利差交易(Carry Trade)是在各種貨幣的利率水平上進行套利的交易以獲得價差收益的交易型態。而利差交易在這幾年創造出諸多研究的方向;利差交易又稱為套息交易,即借入低利率的貨幣,以購買其它高收益的投資工具,如高利率貨幣、股票、或是實物資產等,進而從中賺取其間的利率及匯率差價。諸如債券或國庫券等現貨金融工具所帶來的收益與該項投資的融資成本間的差額。
     
     利差交易多在市場處於穩定低風險狀況下時,才能夠得到穩定的報酬率,因此如何客觀準確的評量目前市場所處的風險狀態,以獲得相對平穩又較佳的收益是主要的研究方向。本研究以如何求得利差交易裡面各項最佳且保持穩定性的參數與指標,假設利差交易可以經由衡量某些風險指標的平均值,並當風險指標低時建立利差交易部位,反之,當風險指標高時結束利差交易,甚至更積極進行反向利差交易,以求達到穩定報酬率的目標。
Title of Thesis: Empirical Performance of Carry Trade Trading Strategy
     School/Graduate School: National Chengchi University Executive Master
      Of Business Administration, Advanced Finance Class – Risk
      Management and Insurance Group
     Graduate Student : Lee, Nai-Chun
     Instructor: Dr. Kang, Jung Pao
     Thesis Content:
      Carry trade bases on interest rate differences of many currency pairs to make capital gains and interest income and it creates many research topics in recent years. Carry trade borrows low yield currencies and invests other high yield targets such as high yield currencies, stocks, or real assets to get interest incomes and capital gains from foreign exchange rates.
      Only when a foreign exchange market is under stable and low-risk conditions, carry trade can achieve stable return rates. Therefore, how to objectively evaluate current market risk situations to get relatively stable and more returns is the main research topic of this thesis. This thesis reports how to get optimal and consistently stable parameters and indicators of carry trade. It assumes that carry trade can build positions by measuring some mean values of risk indicators when risk indicators are low. On the contrary, it ends the trade when risk indicators are high and even actively short carry trade positions to achieve stable return rates.
     
     Key words: carry trade、capital gain、exchange rate、risk indicator
參考文獻 中文部分
1 沈中華,用「無拋補利率平價說」解釋臺灣利率與美元匯率的變動,企銀季刊,第十六卷,第一期,1992年。
2 沈中華,掌握國際匯率危機預測,新陸書局,2005年8月1日。
3 Shani Shamah,外匯交易概論,台灣金融研訓院編譯委員會,2005年。
4 姜堯民,財務管理原理,新陸書局,2005年8月9日。
5 孫剛,外匯理論與實務,五南出版社,1998年。
6 寶華綜合研究院,利差交易與近期全球金融市場走勢,2007年。
7 張修敏,台灣上市公司外匯風險暴露之實證研究,南華大學財務管理研究所,2002年。
8 賀蘭之,遠期匯率偏誤交易策略績效分析。2007年。
9 陳伯松,利差交易攪亂國際股市,經濟日報,2007年3月14日。
10 陳嘉惠、高郁惠和劉玉珍,投資人偏好與資產配置,臺灣管理學刊,第1卷,第2期,2002年。
英文部分
1 Grace Cheng, 2007, ”7 Winning Strategies for Trading Forex”, Harriman House
2 Bjork, Tomas, 2004, “Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time”, Oxford University Press,
3 Burnside, C., M. Eichenbaum, and S. Rebelo, 2007, “The Returns to Currency Speculation in Emerging Markets”, NBER Working Paper, No. 12916
4 Burnside, C., M. Eichenbaum, I. Kleshchelski and S. Rebelo, 2006, “The Returns to Currency Speculation”, NBER Working Paper, No. 12489
5 Caplinger, D., 2006, “A Yen for the Carry Trade”, TMF Galagan
6 Cavallo, M., 2006, “Interest Rates, Carry Trades, and Exchange Rate Movements”, FRBSF Economic Letter, No. 2006-31.
7 Copeland, L.S., 2004, “Exchange Rates and International Finance”, 4th ed. F.T.: Prentice Hall
8 Galati, Heath, and Mcguire, 2007, “Evidence of carry trade activity”, BIS Quarterly Review
9 Hattori and Shin, 2007, “The Broad Yen Carry Trade”, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan
10 Johnson, R. S., C.W. Hultman and R. A. Zuber, 1979, “Currency Cocktail and Exchange Rate Stability”, Columbia Journal of World Business
11 Markowitz, Harry M., 1952, “Portfolio Selection”, Journal of Finance
12 McGuire, P. and C. Upper, 2007, “Detecting FX carry trades”, BIS Quarterly Review
13 Radalj, K., 2002, “Risk Premiums and the Forward Rate Anomaly: A Survey”, iEMSs 2002 Proceedings
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險研究所
94932259
96
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094932259
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 康榮寶zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 李乃君zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 李乃君zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2007en_US
dc.date.accessioned 14-Sep-2009 09:41:49 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 14-Sep-2009 09:41:49 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 14-Sep-2009 09:41:49 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0094932259en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/31280-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 風險管理與保險研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 94932259zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 96zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 利差交易(Carry Trade)是在各種貨幣的利率水平上進行套利的交易以獲得價差收益的交易型態。而利差交易在這幾年創造出諸多研究的方向;利差交易又稱為套息交易,即借入低利率的貨幣,以購買其它高收益的投資工具,如高利率貨幣、股票、或是實物資產等,進而從中賺取其間的利率及匯率差價。諸如債券或國庫券等現貨金融工具所帶來的收益與該項投資的融資成本間的差額。
     
     利差交易多在市場處於穩定低風險狀況下時,才能夠得到穩定的報酬率,因此如何客觀準確的評量目前市場所處的風險狀態,以獲得相對平穩又較佳的收益是主要的研究方向。本研究以如何求得利差交易裡面各項最佳且保持穩定性的參數與指標,假設利差交易可以經由衡量某些風險指標的平均值,並當風險指標低時建立利差交易部位,反之,當風險指標高時結束利差交易,甚至更積極進行反向利差交易,以求達到穩定報酬率的目標。
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Title of Thesis: Empirical Performance of Carry Trade Trading Strategy
     School/Graduate School: National Chengchi University Executive Master
      Of Business Administration, Advanced Finance Class – Risk
      Management and Insurance Group
     Graduate Student : Lee, Nai-Chun
     Instructor: Dr. Kang, Jung Pao
     Thesis Content:
      Carry trade bases on interest rate differences of many currency pairs to make capital gains and interest income and it creates many research topics in recent years. Carry trade borrows low yield currencies and invests other high yield targets such as high yield currencies, stocks, or real assets to get interest incomes and capital gains from foreign exchange rates.
      Only when a foreign exchange market is under stable and low-risk conditions, carry trade can achieve stable return rates. Therefore, how to objectively evaluate current market risk situations to get relatively stable and more returns is the main research topic of this thesis. This thesis reports how to get optimal and consistently stable parameters and indicators of carry trade. It assumes that carry trade can build positions by measuring some mean values of risk indicators when risk indicators are low. On the contrary, it ends the trade when risk indicators are high and even actively short carry trade positions to achieve stable return rates.
     
     Key words: carry trade、capital gain、exchange rate、risk indicator
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章、 緒論 1
     第一節、 研究背景與動機 1
     第二節、 研究目的 2
     第三節、 研究架構 3
     第二章、 文獻探討 4
     第一節、 外匯市場與利差交易簡介 4
     第二節、 影響因素與匯率理論 14
     第三節、 利差交易 24
     第三章、 研究設計 31
     第一節、 研究目的 31
     第二節、 策略交易法則的制定 31
     第三節、 交易風險指標介紹 32
     第四節、 策略交易績效衡量方法 37
     第四章、 實證結果與分析 42
     第一節、 交易策略簡介 42
     第二節、 策略交易回溯測試 42
     第三節、 策略交易綜合績效分析 57
     第五章、 結論與建議 66
     第一節、 結論 66
     第二節、 建議 67
     參考文獻 68
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094932259en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 利差交易zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 套利zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 價差收益zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 匯率zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 風險指標zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) carry tradeen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) capital gainen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) exchange rateen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) risk indicatoren_US
dc.title (題名) 利差交易策略之實證結果zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部分zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1 沈中華,用「無拋補利率平價說」解釋臺灣利率與美元匯率的變動,企銀季刊,第十六卷,第一期,1992年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2 沈中華,掌握國際匯率危機預測,新陸書局,2005年8月1日。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3 Shani Shamah,外匯交易概論,台灣金融研訓院編譯委員會,2005年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4 姜堯民,財務管理原理,新陸書局,2005年8月9日。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5 孫剛,外匯理論與實務,五南出版社,1998年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 6 寶華綜合研究院,利差交易與近期全球金融市場走勢,2007年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 7 張修敏,台灣上市公司外匯風險暴露之實證研究,南華大學財務管理研究所,2002年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 8 賀蘭之,遠期匯率偏誤交易策略績效分析。2007年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 9 陳伯松,利差交易攪亂國際股市,經濟日報,2007年3月14日。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 10 陳嘉惠、高郁惠和劉玉珍,投資人偏好與資產配置,臺灣管理學刊,第1卷,第2期,2002年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 英文部分zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1 Grace Cheng, 2007, ”7 Winning Strategies for Trading Forex”, Harriman Housezh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2 Bjork, Tomas, 2004, “Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time”, Oxford University Press,zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3 Burnside, C., M. Eichenbaum, and S. Rebelo, 2007, “The Returns to Currency Speculation in Emerging Markets”, NBER Working Paper, No. 12916zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4 Burnside, C., M. Eichenbaum, I. Kleshchelski and S. Rebelo, 2006, “The Returns to Currency Speculation”, NBER Working Paper, No. 12489zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5 Caplinger, D., 2006, “A Yen for the Carry Trade”, TMF Galaganzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 6 Cavallo, M., 2006, “Interest Rates, Carry Trades, and Exchange Rate Movements”, FRBSF Economic Letter, No. 2006-31.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 7 Copeland, L.S., 2004, “Exchange Rates and International Finance”, 4th ed. F.T.: Prentice Hallzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 8 Galati, Heath, and Mcguire, 2007, “Evidence of carry trade activity”, BIS Quarterly Reviewzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 9 Hattori and Shin, 2007, “The Broad Yen Carry Trade”, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japanzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 10 Johnson, R. S., C.W. Hultman and R. A. Zuber, 1979, “Currency Cocktail and Exchange Rate Stability”, Columbia Journal of World Businesszh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 11 Markowitz, Harry M., 1952, “Portfolio Selection”, Journal of Financezh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 12 McGuire, P. and C. Upper, 2007, “Detecting FX carry trades”, BIS Quarterly Reviewzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 13 Radalj, K., 2002, “Risk Premiums and the Forward Rate Anomaly: A Survey”, iEMSs 2002 Proceedingszh_TW