跳脫國際政治的攻勢及守勢現實主義：體系穩定的互動與結構解釋之嘗試

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題名	跳脫國際政治的攻勢及守勢現實主義：體系穩定的互動與結構解釋之嘗試 Beyond the Offensive and Defensive Realism in the International Politics: An Attempt of Interaction and Structure Explanations on the Stability of the International System
作者	楊仕樂 Yang, Shih-Yueh
貢獻者	林碧炤楊仕樂 Yang, Shih-Yueh
關鍵詞	國際政治理論現實主義體系互動能力結構穩定 Theory of International Politics Realism System Interaction Capacity Structure Stability
日期	2006
上傳時間	14-Sep-2009 10:12:27 (UTC+8)
摘要	本文試圖為當前現實主義中，國際政治理論發展的問題與瓶頸，作一概略的檢視、提出可能的倡議，並進行實證研究加以檢驗。本文發現攻勢與守勢現實主義之爭，是理論發展上不必要的誤會，現實主義內的理論爭議，其實仍是分析層次的問題：單元層級的解釋混亂繁瑣而難以驗證，但體系層級基於權力分配結構的解釋，卻也不盡圓滿。因此，本文嘗試在現實主義的物質能力傳統中，對體系穩定的變動提出「體系穩定的互動解釋」與「體系穩定的結構解釋」之新嘗試，以求在名稱上貼近解釋倡議的實質內容，跳脫過去攻勢、守勢現實主義理論名稱劃分的漩渦，並作為未來建立國際政治理論的可能選擇。本文指出，互動能力的概念，不僅是新的解釋來源，也是界定體系範疇的前提，未來的國際政治理論應利用攻守平衡的解釋邏輯，在結構之外的互動能力解釋來源中，開發科技與地理等兩項解釋變數；並發掘結構解釋來源中，絕對的權力分配作解釋變數，再分別從此導出推論；而有關穩定的意涵，也應從戰爭的避免，擴大為對和平的威脅。本文的實證研究範圍訂在一六四八年至今的歐洲乃至全球體系，本文將先分別呈現各項解釋變數在各個時代的變化，以及依據推論所應出現的結果，再對照實際上體系穩定的變異狀態，以檢驗各項推論。整體而言，本文所進行的實證研究大致上是獲得了相當的正面結果。 The purposes of this thesis are: examining the current obstructions in Realist theory of international politics, proposing alternatives, and conducting empirical studies. The thesis finds that, the debates between Offensive and Defensive Realism are unnecessary. The level of analysis problem is still crucial: unit level explanations are complex and hard to test, but system level explanations base on the structure of relative power distribution are not satisfactory either. Thus, to get rid of the offensive and defensive labeling, the thesis proposes two alternatives within the Realist material tradition: “interaction” and “structure” explanations on the stability of the international system. The thesis argues that, interaction capacity is both a source of explanation and the precondition of a system. In the future, the theory of international politics should take offense-defense balance as logic of explanation to explore technology, geography, and absolute power distribution as independent variables. In addition, the concept of stability as a dependent variable should also be expanded. Stability is not merely the avoidance of war, but the threat to peace. The scope of the qualitative empirical studies are European and global international systems from 1648 to present. In general, the thesis finds rather positive results to support the interaction and structure explanations.
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描述	博士國立政治大學外交研究所 92253504 95
資料來源	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0922535041
資料類型	thesis

dc.contributor.advisor	林碧炤	zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors)	楊仕樂	zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors)	Yang, Shih-Yueh	en_US
dc.creator (作者)	楊仕樂	zh_TW
dc.creator (作者)	Yang, Shih-Yueh	en_US
dc.date (日期)	2006	en_US
dc.date.accessioned	14-Sep-2009 10:12:27 (UTC+8)	-
dc.date.available	14-Sep-2009 10:12:27 (UTC+8)	-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間)	14-Sep-2009 10:12:27 (UTC+8)	-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers)	G0922535041	en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI)	https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/31447	-
dc.description (描述)	博士	zh_TW
dc.description (描述)	國立政治大學	zh_TW
dc.description (描述)	外交研究所	zh_TW
dc.description (描述)	92253504	zh_TW
dc.description (描述)	95	zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要)	本文試圖為當前現實主義中，國際政治理論發展的問題與瓶頸，作一概略的檢視、提出可能的倡議，並進行實證研究加以檢驗。本文發現攻勢與守勢現實主義之爭，是理論發展上不必要的誤會，現實主義內的理論爭議，其實仍是分析層次的問題：單元層級的解釋混亂繁瑣而難以驗證，但體系層級基於權力分配結構的解釋，卻也不盡圓滿。因此，本文嘗試在現實主義的物質能力傳統中，對體系穩定的變動提出「體系穩定的互動解釋」與「體系穩定的結構解釋」之新嘗試，以求在名稱上貼近解釋倡議的實質內容，跳脫過去攻勢、守勢現實主義理論名稱劃分的漩渦，並作為未來建立國際政治理論的可能選擇。本文指出，互動能力的概念，不僅是新的解釋來源，也是界定體系範疇的前提，未來的國際政治理論應利用攻守平衡的解釋邏輯，在結構之外的互動能力解釋來源中，開發科技與地理等兩項解釋變數；並發掘結構解釋來源中，絕對的權力分配作解釋變數，再分別從此導出推論；而有關穩定的意涵，也應從戰爭的避免，擴大為對和平的威脅。本文的實證研究範圍訂在一六四八年至今的歐洲乃至全球體系，本文將先分別呈現各項解釋變數在各個時代的變化，以及依據推論所應出現的結果，再對照實際上體系穩定的變異狀態，以檢驗各項推論。整體而言，本文所進行的實證研究大致上是獲得了相當的正面結果。	zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要)	The purposes of this thesis are: examining the current obstructions in Realist theory of international politics, proposing alternatives, and conducting empirical studies. The thesis finds that, the debates between Offensive and Defensive Realism are unnecessary. The level of analysis problem is still crucial: unit level explanations are complex and hard to test, but system level explanations base on the structure of relative power distribution are not satisfactory either. Thus, to get rid of the offensive and defensive labeling, the thesis proposes two alternatives within the Realist material tradition: “interaction” and “structure” explanations on the stability of the international system. The thesis argues that, interaction capacity is both a source of explanation and the precondition of a system. In the future, the theory of international politics should take offense-defense balance as logic of explanation to explore technology, geography, and absolute power distribution as independent variables. In addition, the concept of stability as a dependent variable should also be expanded. Stability is not merely the avoidance of war, but the threat to peace. The scope of the qualitative empirical studies are European and global international systems from 1648 to present. In general, the thesis finds rather positive results to support the interaction and structure explanations.	en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents	第一章緒論 1 第一節研究動機 1 第二節研究目的與研究問題 4 第三節章節安排 5 第二章文獻探討 9 第一節攻勢與守勢現實主義之爭 9 第二節從華爾茲到米爾夏麥爾 26 第三節在物質能力中尋求體系層級的解釋變數 38 第三章研究架構 49 第一節體系穩定的互動解釋 50 第二節體系穩定的結構解釋 55 第三節體系的穩定：對和平威脅的高低 57 第四節總結倡議、界定範圍 59 第四章體系中科技允許的機動力 63 第一節一六四八年至一八二○年代：肌肉與火藥 66 第二節一八三○年代至一九二○年代：蒸汽與火藥 71 第三節一九三○年代至一九五○年代：內燃機與電子 78 第四節一九六○年代至今：核能及電子 93 第五章體系的密度與零碎度 115 第一節界定「體系」與「主要行為者」 115 第二節體系主要成員的更迭 126 第三節體系中密度與零碎度的變化 133 第六章推論的驗證 139 第一節個別的原始推論 139 第二節體系穩定的變異 143 第三節個別與交會的檢驗 149 第七章結論 159 第一節研究發現 159 第二節研究貢獻與限制 161 第三節未來展望 163 參考文獻 171 表次表2-1 現實主義的分類 15 表3-1 國際體系的組成 50 表3-2 體系層級的國際政治理論 60 表4-1 早期代表性戰車性能略表 82 表4-2 二次大戰代表性戰車性能略表 83 表4-3 早期的轟炸機性能略表 87 表4-4 一九三○至一九五○年代表性轟炸機性能的進展 90 表4-5 美國與蘇聯的洲際彈道飛彈與彈頭 102 表4-6 精確導引彈藥的效用 108 表4-7 體系中科技允許的機動力 114 表5-1 一五○○年至一八○○年從歐洲駛往亞洲的帆船數量統計 119 表5-2 華爾茲認定的體系中主要行為者 122 表5-3 強權國家在各個時代中的相對經濟能力 123 表5-4 強權國家的軍事關鍵科技能力 124 表5-5 泛歐洲區中的主要行為者 129 表5-6 美國與英國的相對經濟能力 130 表5-7 全球體系中的主要行為者 132 表5-8 泛歐洲區時代各時期體系的密度 134 表5-9 全球各時期體系的密度 134 表5-10 泛歐洲區時代各時期體系的零碎度 136 表5-11 全球各時期體系的零碎度 136 表6-1 體系穩定的互動（科技允許的機動力）解釋的推論 140 表6-2 體系穩定的互動（密度）解釋的推論 141 表6-3 體系穩定的結構（零碎度）解釋的推論 142 表6-4 體系穩定的互動（科技允許的機動力）解釋 150 表6-5 體系穩定的互動（密度）解釋 151 表6-6 體系穩定的結構（零碎度）解釋 152 表6-7 體系穩定的互動（機動力+密度）解釋 153 表6-8 體系穩定的互動與結構（機動力+零碎度）解釋 154 表6-9 體系穩定的互動與結構（密度+零碎度）解釋 155 表6-10 體系穩定的互動與結構（機動力+密度+零碎度）解釋 156 圖次圖6-1 體系的穩定程度：1816~2006年間兵力/人口比例變化 145 圖6-2 兵力/人口比例變化與軍費/GDP比例變化（美國） 147	zh_TW
dc.language.iso	en_US	-
dc.source.uri (資料來源)	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0922535041	en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	國際政治理論	zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	現實主義	zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	體系	zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	互動能力	zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	結構	zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	穩定	zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	Theory of International Politics	en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	Realism	en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	System	en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	Interaction Capacity	en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	Structure	en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	Stability	en_US
dc.title (題名)	跳脫國際政治的攻勢及守勢現實主義：體系穩定的互動與結構解釋之嘗試	zh_TW
dc.title (題名)	Beyond the Offensive and Defensive Realism in the International Politics: An Attempt of Interaction and Structure Explanations on the Stability of the International System	en_US
dc.type (資料類型)	thesis	en
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