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題名 以公司治理、相對盈餘管理與財務比率建構企業預警模型
作者 陳書偉
貢獻者 沈中華
陳書偉
關鍵詞 公司治理
盈餘管理
預警模型
因素分析
logistic迴歸分析
日期 2006
上傳時間 14-Sep-2009 13:29:21 (UTC+8)
摘要 本文參照前人學者實證研究中所選取之財務比率變數,其中包含經營效率、獲利性、償債能力等構面中所選取財務比率變數共17個,另加入董事會特性、股權結構、參與管理等構面之公司治理變數共13個治理變數,以及納入盈餘管理變數與相關控制變數分別建構3個財務預警模型,並將會計資訊變數的資料型態依Platt(1990)之概念分為兩種,用意在分別比較原比率型態之預警模型與相對比率型態之預警模型之差異,樣本公司抽樣於2002年至2005年間,以TEJ資料庫認定為財務危機之企業,從中抽取跨產業41家財務危機之樣本企業,以1:2之比率抽取資產總額相近之82家正常企業樣本,總樣本數為123家樣本公司,實證結果顯示在財務危機發生前一、二年度,整體而言相對比率之預警模型預測能力與類比解釋能力相對優於一般原比率之財務預警模型,而盈餘管理變數確實能提高模型預測準確率,在越接近財務危機發生之時間點,其效果較為顯著,尤其相對比率之盈餘管理變數優於原比率之盈餘管理變數,再者公司治理變數之加入,亦同樣對模型之區別能力有所幫助,總和而言同時加入會計資訊變數、盈餘管理變數與公司治理變數之相對比率預警模型,是為本文所建預警模型中最佳效率之預警模型。
參考文獻 一、國內文獻:
1. 彭筱倩 (2004),「盈餘管理與公司治理變數關聯性研究—以我國財務危機公司為例」,政治大學會計學系碩士論文。
2. 林裕雄 (1996),「列入全額交割股上市公司盈餘管理之實證研究」,中央大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
3. 林文修 (2000),「演化式類神經網路為基底的企業危機診斷模型:智慧資本之應用」,中央大學資訊管理學系博士論文。
4. 林雅淑 (2003),「股權結構與盈餘管理關聯性研究」,中央大學企業管理研究所財管組碩士論文。
5. 林有志、廖宜鋒 (2006),「提前採用資產減損公報之公司特性與盈餘管理動機」,文大商管學報,第11卷,第1期,頁11-28。
6. 黃宏志(1992),「銀行放款信用評估模型之研究—以臺灣地區電工器材業為對象」,淡江大學管理科學研究所碩士論文。
7. 黃建華 (2006),「加入公司治理變數建構台灣上市上櫃公司之財務危機預警模型」,東吳大學國際貿易學系國際貿易金融組碩士論文。
8. 黃正耀 (2004),「公司治理與盈餘管理之關聯性研究-以國內特定上市櫃公司為例」,政治大學會計學系碩士論文。
9. 黃旭輝 (2006),「經理人異動與股東財富效果」,管理評論,第25卷,第1期,頁23-45。
10. 謝劍平 (2006),「財務報表分析」,智勝文化出版。
11. 謝宇泰 (1995),「獨立董監事特性與盈餘管理之關聯性研究」,成功大學會計學研究所碩士論文。
12. 張瑞當、方俊儒 (2006),「資訊揭露評鑑系統對企業盈餘管理行為之影響」,會計評論,第42期,頁1-22。
13. 朱延智 (2005),「財務危機管理」,五南圖書出版。
14. 沈中華、陳錦村、吳孟紋 (2005),「更早期預警模型:台灣銀行道德指標的建立與影響」,管理學報,第22卷,第1期,頁1-28。
15. 沈中華、池祥麟 (2003),「從投資人保護觀點與展望理論探討各國銀行業盈餘管理之現象與動機」,經濟論文,第31卷,第3期,頁407-458。
16. 沈中華、張雲翔 (2002),「金融機構跨業經營及轉投資之利潤與風險:全球實證分析」,經濟論文,第30卷,第3期,頁275-301。
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20. 陳肇榮 (1983),「運用財務比率預測企業財務危機之實證研究」,政治大學企業管理研究所未出版博士論文。
21. 陳明賢 (1986),「財務危機預測之計量分析研究」,台灣大學商學院研究所未出版碩士論文。
22. 陳順宇 (2005),「多變量分析」,華泰文化出版。
23. 陳志銘 (2006),「以產業相對比率建立企業預警模型—考量公司治理因素」,政治大學財政學研究所碩士論文。
24. 曾素娟 (1999),「考量景氣波動之企業財務預警」,成大企業管理學研究所碩士論文。
25. 蘇文娟 (2000),「台灣上市企業財務危機預測之實證研究」,東華大學國際經濟研究所碩士論文。
26. 歐再添(2002),「企業財務危機預測—以產業別建構Logistic預警模型」,臺灣科技大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
27. 葉銀華、李存修、柯承恩(2002),「公司治理與評等系統」,智商文化出版。
28. 王濟川、郭世剛 (2002),「Logistic迴歸模型方法與應用」,五南圖書出版社。
29. 王健安 (2002),「公司治理的模式與評估」,台灣金融財報季刊,第3卷,第3期,頁159-87。
30. 王克陸、包曉天 (2002),「企業轉投資與其系統風險關係之研究—台灣紡織業與電子業之比較」,中華管理學報,第3卷,第2期,頁65-74。
二、國外文獻:
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟研究所
94258021
95
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094258021
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 沈中華zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳書偉zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 陳書偉zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2006en_US
dc.date.accessioned 14-Sep-2009 13:29:21 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 14-Sep-2009 13:29:21 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 14-Sep-2009 13:29:21 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0094258021en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/32241-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經濟研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 94258021zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文參照前人學者實證研究中所選取之財務比率變數,其中包含經營效率、獲利性、償債能力等構面中所選取財務比率變數共17個,另加入董事會特性、股權結構、參與管理等構面之公司治理變數共13個治理變數,以及納入盈餘管理變數與相關控制變數分別建構3個財務預警模型,並將會計資訊變數的資料型態依Platt(1990)之概念分為兩種,用意在分別比較原比率型態之預警模型與相對比率型態之預警模型之差異,樣本公司抽樣於2002年至2005年間,以TEJ資料庫認定為財務危機之企業,從中抽取跨產業41家財務危機之樣本企業,以1:2之比率抽取資產總額相近之82家正常企業樣本,總樣本數為123家樣本公司,實證結果顯示在財務危機發生前一、二年度,整體而言相對比率之預警模型預測能力與類比解釋能力相對優於一般原比率之財務預警模型,而盈餘管理變數確實能提高模型預測準確率,在越接近財務危機發生之時間點,其效果較為顯著,尤其相對比率之盈餘管理變數優於原比率之盈餘管理變數,再者公司治理變數之加入,亦同樣對模型之區別能力有所幫助,總和而言同時加入會計資訊變數、盈餘管理變數與公司治理變數之相對比率預警模型,是為本文所建預警模型中最佳效率之預警模型。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論……………………………………………………………1
     第二章 文獻探討………………………………………………………4
     第三章 研究方法………………………………………………………24
     第四章 統計分析與實證結果…………………………………………40
     第五章 結論……………………………………………………………69
     參考文獻 …………………………………………………………………71
     附錄一 ……………………………………………………………………76
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094258021en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 公司治理zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 盈餘管理zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 預警模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 因素分析zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) logistic迴歸分析zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 以公司治理、相對盈餘管理與財務比率建構企業預警模型zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、國內文獻:zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1. 彭筱倩 (2004),「盈餘管理與公司治理變數關聯性研究—以我國財務危機公司為例」,政治大學會計學系碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2. 林裕雄 (1996),「列入全額交割股上市公司盈餘管理之實證研究」,中央大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3. 林文修 (2000),「演化式類神經網路為基底的企業危機診斷模型:智慧資本之應用」,中央大學資訊管理學系博士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4. 林雅淑 (2003),「股權結構與盈餘管理關聯性研究」,中央大學企業管理研究所財管組碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5. 林有志、廖宜鋒 (2006),「提前採用資產減損公報之公司特性與盈餘管理動機」,文大商管學報,第11卷,第1期,頁11-28。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 6. 黃宏志(1992),「銀行放款信用評估模型之研究—以臺灣地區電工器材業為對象」,淡江大學管理科學研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 7. 黃建華 (2006),「加入公司治理變數建構台灣上市上櫃公司之財務危機預警模型」,東吳大學國際貿易學系國際貿易金融組碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 8. 黃正耀 (2004),「公司治理與盈餘管理之關聯性研究-以國內特定上市櫃公司為例」,政治大學會計學系碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 9. 黃旭輝 (2006),「經理人異動與股東財富效果」,管理評論,第25卷,第1期,頁23-45。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 10. 謝劍平 (2006),「財務報表分析」,智勝文化出版。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 11. 謝宇泰 (1995),「獨立董監事特性與盈餘管理之關聯性研究」,成功大學會計學研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 12. 張瑞當、方俊儒 (2006),「資訊揭露評鑑系統對企業盈餘管理行為之影響」,會計評論,第42期,頁1-22。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 13. 朱延智 (2005),「財務危機管理」,五南圖書出版。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 14. 沈中華、陳錦村、吳孟紋 (2005),「更早期預警模型:台灣銀行道德指標的建立與影響」,管理學報,第22卷,第1期,頁1-28。zh_TW
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