| dc.contributor.advisor | 吳中書 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Wu, Chung Shu | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author (作者) | 范芝萍 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (作者) | Fan, Chih Ping | en_US |
| dc.creator (作者) | 范芝萍 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | Fan, Chih Ping | en_US |
| dc.date (日期) | 2007 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 14-九月-2009 13:31:37 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 14-九月-2009 13:31:37 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 14-九月-2009 13:31:37 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) | G0902585061 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/32260 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 博士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 經濟研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 90258506 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 96 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 本論文主要以總體時間序列資料與世代資料來探討人口結構與消費及其組成的關聯性。在總體時間數列資料方面，根據一般動差法的估計結果顯示，扶老比和扶幼比與民間消費比率具有正向關聯性，且扶老比對消費比率的推升效果要較扶幼比來得大與顯著。在十二類消費比率中，除娛樂消遣與教育消費比率的估計結果不具顯著性外，其他十一項消費比率與人口結構具顯著關聯性。此外，並無充分證據顯示逐年下滑的扶幼比與逐年走高的扶老比是造成我國民間消費比率相對平穩的主要原因。在世代資料方面，根據近似無關之迴歸聯立估計結果顯示，家庭消費組成中，除飲料與房租及水費支出外，戶內14歲以下幼年人口或65歲以上老年人口對其餘類別消費組成均具有顯著的影響，其效果與方向則依各支出類別而異。整體而言，依賴人口的確可作為影響家庭消費組成決策的重要因素之一，但戶內依賴人口對家庭總消費的影響則不具統計上的顯著性。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 謝 辭 i 摘 要 iii 目 次 I 表 次 III 圖 次 V 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究動機與目的 1 1.2 研究方法 2 第二章 人口結構與民間消費之總體資料分析 5 2.1 前言 5 2.2 我國人口結構與民間消費的變動趨勢 7 2.2.1 人口結構的變動趨勢 7 2.2.2 民間消費及其組成的變動趨勢 9 2.3 人口結構與民間消費的關聯性 11 2.3.1 人口結構與民間消費比率 11 2.3.2 人口結構與各消費組成比率 14 2.3.3 人口結構對民間消費之估測能力 15 2.4 結論 16 第三章 人口結構與民間消費之世代資料分析 33 3.1 前言 33 3.2 實證模型與方法 36 3.3 資料 40 3.3.1 人口結構與各消費組成比率 40 3.3.2家計資料整體變化趨勢 42 3.3.3年齡剖面與世代追蹤資料變化趨勢 43 3.4 實證結果 46 3.4.1 四大樣本估計結果 46 3.4.2 加入依賴人口變數 49 3.4.3 加入依賴人口與其他變數 51 3.5 結論 54 第四章 結論與未來研究方向 91 4.1 討論 91 4.2 總結與未來研究方向 95 參考文獻 103 附錄 107 | zh_TW |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0902585061 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 人口結構 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 民間消費 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | 人口結構與民間消費 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | Demographic Structure and Private Consumption in Taiwan | en_US |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
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