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題名 資產相關性 : 以台灣金融業為例
Asset Correlation : Taiwan Banking Industry study case
作者 施畊宇
Shih,Keng-Yu
貢獻者 沈中華
Shen, Chung-Hua
施畊宇
Shih,Keng-Yu
關鍵詞 資產相關性
倒帳相關性
倒帳機率
巴塞爾協定
台灣金融業
Asset Correlation
Default Correlation
Default Probability
Basel Ⅱ
Taiwan Banking Industry
日期 2004
上傳時間 14-Sep-2009 13:31:56 (UTC+8)
摘要 This paper emphasis on the importance of default correlation, and also illustrate how the concept is connected with the Basel Ⅱ framework’s intention. Moreover, the paper brought out the different methodologies used by practitioners to arrive at the default correlation calculation, namely, the dispute between asset correlation and equity correlation. Furthermore, based on the model proposed by Hamerle, Liebig, and Scheule (2004), a panel logit model is set up to capture the relationship between the default events and the risk components endured by the specific industry. The model is therefore used to test the applicability of such model using Taiwan’s banking industry data. The result is consistent with our expectation about including the macroeconomic variables which will help to explain the default events happened within the banking industry. But, to my surprise, the proposition about the contemporary systematic random risk effect seems to be insignificant and a fixed effect is suggested to be assumed instead.
參考文獻 Asian Development Bank (2001), “A regional Early Warning System Prototype for East Asia”, Regional Economic Monitoring Unit.
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2004), “International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards”, Bank for International Settlement, June.
Black, F., Scholes, M. (1973). “The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities”, Journal of Political Economy, 637-654.
Goldstein, M., Graciela, L. K. and Carmen, M. R. (2000), “Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets”, Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC, June.
Gordy, M. B. (2000), “A Comparative Anatomy of Credit Risk Models”, Journal of Banking & Finance: 119-149.
Gordy, M. B. (2003), “A Risk-Factor Model Foundation for Ratings-Based Bank Capital Rules”, Journal of Financial Intermediation: 199-232.
Greene, W. H. (2003), “Econometric Analysis”, Fifth Edition.
Hamerle, A., Liebig, T. and Rösch, D. (2003), “Credit Risk Factor Modeling and the Basel Ⅱ IRB Approach”, Discussion Paper, No. 02/2003, Deutsche Bundesbank.
Hamerle, A., Liebig, T. and Rösch, D. (2004), “Benchmarking Asset Correlations”, Deutsche Bundesbank.
Hamerle, A., Liebig, T. and Scheule, H. (2004), “Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk”, Discussion Paper, No. 01/2004, Deutsche Bundesbank.
Jarrow, R. A., Lando, D., Turnbull, S.M. (1997), “A Markov Model of the Term Structure of Credit Spreads”, Review of Financial Studies 10.
KMV (2001), “An Empirical Assessment of Asset Correlation Models”.
KMV (2001), “Response to JP Morgan’s paper “Using Equities to Price Credit””.
KMV (2001), “Measuring Credit Correlations: Equity Correlations Are Not Enough!”.
Koyluoglu, H.U. and Hickman, A. (1998), “A Generalized Framework for Credit Risk Portfolio Models”, Working Paper, Oliver, Wyman & Co.
Lopez, J. A. (2002), “The Empirical Relationship between Average Asset Correlation, Firm Probability of Default and Asset Size”. Working Paper in Applied Economic Theory, 2002-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Lucas, D.J. (1995), “Default Correlation and Credit Analysis”, Journal of Fixed Income, 76-87.
Merton, R. (1974), “On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates”, Journal of Finance, 29, 449-470.
Nagpal, K., Bahar, R. (2001), “Measuring Default Correlation”, Risk, March, 129-132.
Shen, C. H. (2003), “Drawbacks and Improvements in Basel Ⅱ (in Chinese)”, Taiwan Banking and Finance Quarterly, 4(1):1-17.
Shen, C. H. and Chih, H. L. (2005), “Investor Protection, Prospect Theory, and Earning Management: An International Comparison of the Banking Industry”, Journal of Banking and Finance,
Shen, C. H and Huang, A. H. (2003), “Are Performance of Banks and Firms Linked? And if so, why?”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 5315:1-18.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2002), “Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach”
Wu, Y. J., (2003), “Studies on Taiwan Financial Crisis Warning System”, Central Bank of China: 25-3.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟研究所
92258001
93
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0922580011
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 沈中華zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Shen, Chung-Huaen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 施畊宇zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Shih,Keng-Yuen_US
dc.creator (作者) 施畊宇zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Shih,Keng-Yuen_US
dc.date (日期) 2004en_US
dc.date.accessioned 14-Sep-2009 13:31:56 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 14-Sep-2009 13:31:56 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 14-Sep-2009 13:31:56 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0922580011en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/32263-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經濟研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 92258001zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper emphasis on the importance of default correlation, and also illustrate how the concept is connected with the Basel Ⅱ framework’s intention. Moreover, the paper brought out the different methodologies used by practitioners to arrive at the default correlation calculation, namely, the dispute between asset correlation and equity correlation. Furthermore, based on the model proposed by Hamerle, Liebig, and Scheule (2004), a panel logit model is set up to capture the relationship between the default events and the risk components endured by the specific industry. The model is therefore used to test the applicability of such model using Taiwan’s banking industry data. The result is consistent with our expectation about including the macroeconomic variables which will help to explain the default events happened within the banking industry. But, to my surprise, the proposition about the contemporary systematic random risk effect seems to be insignificant and a fixed effect is suggested to be assumed instead.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Contents
     
     1 Introduction 3
     
     2 Literature Survey 5
     
     3 Methodology Comparisons 6
      3.1 The Basic Issue………………………………..……………………………..6
      3.2 JP Morgan’s Approach…………………………..…………………………8
      3.3 Moody’s Approach……………………………..……………………………9
      3.4 Lopez’s Approach………………………………..…………………………12
      3.5 Deutsche Bundesbank’s Approach…………………………………………13
      3.5.1 Gauging the Default Event…………….…………………………13
      3.5.2 Modeling the Credit Risk……...…..……….……………………...15
      3.5.3 Modeling the Asset Correlation………...………………………….18
      3.5.4 Default Correlation…………….……..……………………………21
      3.5.5 Estimating the Random Effect Parameter….……………………...22
      3.5.6 Shortcomings of this Approach……..…...………….………..……25
     
     4 Empirical Results 26
      4.1 Data………………………………………………………………………...26
      4.2 Risk Factors………………………………………………………………...29
      4.3 Estimation Results………………………………………………………….35
     
     5 Conclusion 39
     
     References 41
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0922580011en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 資產相關性zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 倒帳相關性zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 倒帳機率zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 巴塞爾協定zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 台灣金融業zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Asset Correlationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Default Correlationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Default Probabilityen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Basel Ⅱen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Taiwan Banking Industryen_US
dc.title (題名) 資產相關性 : 以台灣金融業為例zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Asset Correlation : Taiwan Banking Industry study caseen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Asian Development Bank (2001), “A regional Early Warning System Prototype for East Asia”, Regional Economic Monitoring Unit.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2004), “International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards”, Bank for International Settlement, June.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Black, F., Scholes, M. (1973). “The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities”, Journal of Political Economy, 637-654.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Goldstein, M., Graciela, L. K. and Carmen, M. R. (2000), “Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets”, Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC, June.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gordy, M. B. (2000), “A Comparative Anatomy of Credit Risk Models”, Journal of Banking & Finance: 119-149.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gordy, M. B. (2003), “A Risk-Factor Model Foundation for Ratings-Based Bank Capital Rules”, Journal of Financial Intermediation: 199-232.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Greene, W. H. (2003), “Econometric Analysis”, Fifth Edition.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hamerle, A., Liebig, T. and Rösch, D. (2003), “Credit Risk Factor Modeling and the Basel Ⅱ IRB Approach”, Discussion Paper, No. 02/2003, Deutsche Bundesbank.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hamerle, A., Liebig, T. and Rösch, D. (2004), “Benchmarking Asset Correlations”, Deutsche Bundesbank.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hamerle, A., Liebig, T. and Scheule, H. (2004), “Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk”, Discussion Paper, No. 01/2004, Deutsche Bundesbank.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jarrow, R. A., Lando, D., Turnbull, S.M. (1997), “A Markov Model of the Term Structure of Credit Spreads”, Review of Financial Studies 10.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) KMV (2001), “An Empirical Assessment of Asset Correlation Models”.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) KMV (2001), “Response to JP Morgan’s paper “Using Equities to Price Credit””.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) KMV (2001), “Measuring Credit Correlations: Equity Correlations Are Not Enough!”.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Koyluoglu, H.U. and Hickman, A. (1998), “A Generalized Framework for Credit Risk Portfolio Models”, Working Paper, Oliver, Wyman & Co.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lopez, J. A. (2002), “The Empirical Relationship between Average Asset Correlation, Firm Probability of Default and Asset Size”. Working Paper in Applied Economic Theory, 2002-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lucas, D.J. (1995), “Default Correlation and Credit Analysis”, Journal of Fixed Income, 76-87.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Merton, R. (1974), “On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates”, Journal of Finance, 29, 449-470.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Nagpal, K., Bahar, R. (2001), “Measuring Default Correlation”, Risk, March, 129-132.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Shen, C. H. (2003), “Drawbacks and Improvements in Basel Ⅱ (in Chinese)”, Taiwan Banking and Finance Quarterly, 4(1):1-17.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Shen, C. H. and Chih, H. L. (2005), “Investor Protection, Prospect Theory, and Earning Management: An International Comparison of the Banking Industry”, Journal of Banking and Finance,zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Shen, C. H and Huang, A. H. (2003), “Are Performance of Banks and Firms Linked? And if so, why?”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 5315:1-18.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Wooldridge, J. M. (2002), “Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach”zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Wu, Y. J., (2003), “Studies on Taiwan Financial Crisis Warning System”, Central Bank of China: 25-3.zh_TW