| dc.contributor.advisor | 李文福 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Lee, Wen-fu | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 林純琦 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | Lin, Chun-chi | en_US |
| dc.creator (作者) | 林純琦 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | Lin, Chun-chi | en_US |
| dc.date (日期) | 2005 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 14-Sep-2009 13:32:12 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 14-Sep-2009 13:32:12 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 14-Sep-2009 13:32:12 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | G0922580082 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/32265 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 經濟研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 92258008 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 94 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 在運動產業逐漸興起的現代，如何評比球隊或運動員的表現好壞，似乎成了現在新興的熱門話題。經濟學上用來評估一家廠商的生產績效優劣，常用的是生產效率分析，生產活動偏離生產邊界的程度代表不效率高低。而球隊比賽的過程就像廠商生產的過程，運用各種投入得到產出。在籃球比賽中，比賽的投入可為球隊的各種技術統計，例如：投籃命中率、抄截、火鍋…等等，產出則是比賽的得分數。因此，在本篇文章中，我們利用經濟學中的生產效率分析來分析球隊的表現優劣，即評估各球隊發揮其潛能的程度。 評估生產效率的模型有很多，由於比賽的性質，有時候統計誤差、運氣也佔了很重要的部份，所以在選擇模型時，選的是隨機邊界效率分析模型（Stochastic Frontier Approach, SFA），除了利用隨機邊界分析模型分析球隊的生產效率，也利用預估的效率值來預測比賽結果排名，並與一般常用來預測結果的模型PROBIT MODEL做比較。我們利用大陸男子甲A籃球聯賽2003-2004和2004-2005賽季作為實證樣本，發現隨機邊界分析模型不只可以用來評估效率，在預測比賽結果排名上，隨機邊界分析模型預測能力則與PROBIT MODEL沒有顯著統計性的差異。 關鍵字：生產效率、隨機邊界分析法、運動產業 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | Today, sports industry is getting popular, and how to evaluate the performance of sports teams or players seems also to be a newly hot interesting topic. In economics, production efficiency is often applied to evaluate a firm’s production performance. The inefficiency of a production activity is measured as its deviation from the production frontier. The process of a sport game is similar to a firm’s production process, which transforming various inputs into output(s). For basketball games, inputs can be the various technical statistics, such as field goal rate, steals, blacks, assistant attack, etc. Output(s) can be the scores of the teams got. Therefore, in this paper we use the production efficiency to gauge the performance of sports teams. There are many models measuring production efficiency. In this paper we choose the Stochastic Frontier Approach (SFA) to evaluate the sport team’s efficiency on account of the white noises which exist in the sport game obviously. We also use estimated efficiency scores to predict the outcome ranking of teams, and compare it to that of the PROBIT MODEL which is usually used to predict the outcome of a game. The sample we used are the results of the CBA men’s regular season and playoff season, and we found that the SFA is not only to evaluate efficiency but also can predict the outcome of competition, and its prediction ability is not significantly statistically different to that of PROBIT MODEL. Keywords: Production Efficiency, Stochastic Frontier Approach, Sports Industry | en_US |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 緒論……………………………………………………………………….1 1.1 研究動機與背景…………………………………………………………..1 1.2 研究目的…………………………………………………………………..5 1.3 研究方法與限制…………………………………………………………..7 1.4 研究架構…………………………………………………………………..8 第二章 運動產業生產效率之文獻回顧………………………………………….9 2.1 籃球運動產業之研究概況………………………………………………..9 2.2 文獻回顧………………………………………………………………….10 第三章 理論模型…………………………………………………………………14 3.1 效率衡量概念…………………………………………………………….14 3.2 隨機邊界效率評估模型………………………………………………….19 3.2.1 確定性邊界效率評估模型…………………………………………..19 3.2.2 隨機邊界效率分析模型……………………………………………..20 3.3 Probit Model………………………………………………………………24 第四章 實證模型與結果分析……………………………………………………29 4.1 研究樣本………………………………………………………………….29 4.2 生產效率分析…………………………………………………………….35 4.3 贏球機率分析…………………………………………………………….45 4.4 效率與勝率之關係分析檢定…………………………………………….51 第五章 結論與建議………………………………………………………………54 5.1 實證結論………………………………………………………………….54 5.2 研究限制與未來方向…………………………………………………….56 參考文獻……………………………………………………………………………..58 圖表目錄 圖3.1 產出導向下，整體經濟效率、技術效率和配置效率之關係…………..19 圖3.2 投入導向下，整體經濟效率、技術效率和配置效率之關係…………..20 圖3.3 隨機邊界生產函數………………………………………………………..24 圖3.4 標準常態累積分配函數…………………………………………………..29 表2.1 運動產業之相關文獻整理………………………………………………..13 表4.1 2003-2004賽季和2004-2005賽季常規賽結果之簡單統計量………….34 表4.2 2003-2004賽季之變數相關係數表………………………………………35 表4.3 2004-2005賽季之變數相關係數表………………………………………36 表4.4 2003-2004賽季之常規賽和季後賽排名………………………………....37 表4.5 2004-2005賽季之常規賽和季後賽排名………………………………....37 表4.6 2003-2004隨機邊界模型預估係數分析表………………………………40 表4.7 2004-2005隨機邊界模型預估係數分析表………………………………41 表4.8 2003-2004各隊之生產效率………………………………………………43 表4.9 2004-2005各隊之生產效率………………………………………………44 表4.10 2003-2004賽季之生產效率高低與常規賽、季後賽排名………………45 表4.11 2004-2005賽季之生產效率高低與常規賽、季後賽排名………………45 表4.12 生產效率高低排名與常規賽、季後賽之間的T統計量………………..46 表4.13 2003-2004Probit Model係數預估分析表………………………………...49 表4.14 2004-2005Probit Model係數預估分析表………………………………...49 表4.15 2003-2004各隊之贏球機率………………………………………………50 表4.16 2004-2005各隊之贏球機率………………………………………………51 表4.17 2003-2004賽季之贏球機率高低與常規賽、季後賽排名………………52 表4.18 2004-2005賽季之贏球機率高低與常規賽、季後賽排名………………52 表4.19 贏球機率高低排名與常規賽、季後賽之間的T統計量………………..53 表4.20 2003-2004賽季和2004-2005賽季之生產效率排名和贏球機率排名表…………………………………………………………………………...54 表4.21 生產效率模型和贏球機率模型之T統計量……………………………..55 | zh_TW |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0922580082 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 生產效率 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 隨機邊界分析法 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 運動產業 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Production Efficiency | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Stochastic Frontier Approach | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Sports Industry | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | 效率與排名之關係研究—以大陸男子甲A籃球聯賽為例 | zh_TW |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Afriat, S.N. (1972), “Efficiency Estimation of Production Functions,” International Economic Review, 13, 568-598. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Aigner, D.J., and S.F. Chu (1968), “On Estimating the Industry Production Function,” American Economic Review, 58, 826-839. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Aigner, D.J., C.A.K Lovell and P. Schmidt (1977), “Formulation and Estimation of Stochastic Frontier Production Function Models,” Journal of Econometrics, 6, 21-37. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Battese, G.E., and T.J. Coelli (1988), “Prediction of Firm-Level Technical Efficiencies with a Generalized Frontier Production Function and Panel Data,” Journal of Econometrics, 38, 387-399. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Berri, D.J., and T. Jewell (2004), “Wage Inequality and Firm Performance: Professional Basketball`s Natural Experiment,” Atlantic Economic Journal, 32(2), 130-139. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Boulier, L. and H.O. Stekler (1999), “Are Sports Seedings Good Predictors?: An Evaluation,” International Journal of Forecasting, 15, 83-91. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Caudill, B. (2003), “Predicting Discrete Outcomes with the Maximum Score Estimator: the Case of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament,” International Journal of Forecasting, 19, 313-317. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Dawson, P., S. Dobson and B. Gerrard (2000), “Stochastic Frontiers and the Temporal Structure of Managerial Efficiency in English Soccer,” Journal of Sports Economics, 1, 341-362. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Farrell, M.J. (1957), “The Measurement of Productive Efficiency,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, CXX, Part3, 253-290. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Haas, D., M.G. Kocher and M. Sutter (2003), “Measuring Efficiency of German Football Teams by Data Envelopment Analysis,” Central European Journal of Operations Research, 3, 251-268. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Hill, R., W.E. Griffiths and G. Judge (2001), “Qualitative and Limited Dependent Variable Models,” in Hill, R., W.E. Griffiths and G. Judge, (eds.), Undergraduate Econometrics, 368-376, United States of America: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Hofler, R. and J.E. Payne (1997), “Measuring Efficiency in the National Basketball Association,” Economics Letters, 55, 293-299. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Jondrow, J., C.A.K Lovell, I.S. Materov and P. Schmidt (1982), “On Estimation of Technical Inefficiency in the Stochastic Frontier Production Function Model,” Journal of Econometrics, 19, 233-238. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Meeusen, W. and J. van den Broeck (1977), “Efficiency Estimation from Cobb-Douglas Production Functions with Composed Error,” International Economic Review, 18, 435-444. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Schmidt, P. (1976), “On the Statistical Estimation of Parametric Frontier Production Functions,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 58, 238-239. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Wilcoxon, F. (1945), “Individual Comparisons by Ranking Methods,” Biometrics, 1, 80-83. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Zak, T., C.J. Huang and J. Siegfried (1979), “Production Efficiency: the Case of Professional Basketball,” The Journal of Business, 52, 379-392. | zh_TW |
